Dallas Technology Center

Super Bowl: Oakland Raiders vs New York Giants

2012-02-12T22:09:00.001-06:00

The long 2011 season is finally coming to a close and two teams are left standing to face off. It's Giants vs Raiders. On August 15, 2011, an entry entitled "Raider Nation Reigns" was entered into this blog. I expected Oakland to emerge from the top teams in the AFC including San Diego, Carolina and Denver. The NFC was more muddled and I avoided any bold predictions for that champion. Pittsburgh and Detroit, closely followed by Washington, emerged as the favorites. Eventual division champs Green Bay and New York were both predicted to go 9-7 but went 11-5 and 13-3 respectively.

The Giants were the #1 seed on the NFC side and took out Washington 28-6 and Green Bay 31-24 on their way to the Big Show. The Raiders crushed Atlanta 34-16 and Denver 47-13 in the playoffs.

New York Giants (15-3) +6 vs Oakland Raiders (14-4)

The Dallas Technology Center ran 40 simulated games between the Giants and Raiders and spit out NYG +6. Honestly, I was surprised it was that low. It does give me hope although the Raiders defeated their playoff opponents by an average of 24.5 points compared to the DTC prediction of 10 points. Here are the matchups:

NYG Offense vs OAK Defense

Although the Giant offense is only 10th in passing yards and 12th in rushing yards, they have had success scoring, averaging 25.4 points per game (ranked 4th in the league). QB Josh Freeman (3,034 yds, 28 tds, 5 int, 16 sacks, 63.3% completion, 101.1 rating) runs the offense, throwing primarily to WR Hakeem Nicks (81 catches, 15 tds) with Mario Manningham (62 catches, 8 tds) and Percy Harvin (64 catches, 4 tds) sharing the #2 WR role. Felix Jones is Da Man at RB (958 yds, 4.3avg, 5 tds).

The matchup with the Raider defense is interesting. They are 5th in points allowed, averaging 17 a game. The secondary, led by CB Nnamdi Asomugha and S Ed Reed, are very effective at suppressing the air games of opponents, ranking in the top 7 of most pass defense categories. Opponents pass against them quite a bit but they don't get very far - 10.2 yds per completion. That's 2nd in the league. They sack (29), they pick (14), they defense (58.4 completion %). If there is a vulnerability, it is on the ground where they are...average. However, an opponent is usually forced to abandon ground games because the Raider offense keeps the heat on which lets me segue into...

OAK Offense vs NYG Defense

Ugh. This is where I'm gonna get queasy. Let me just rattle a few names off, maybe you've heard of 'em: Tom Brady, Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, and Darren McFadden. These Raiders put more catches on the field in basic formation than most teams can put in 3-,4-,5-WR formations. The Giants give up a lot of yards in the air (211 per game, ranked 16th) although they also know how to intercept (19) and sack (32). Sackmaster LB Cameron Wake led the league 17. They are decent against the run but McFadden has a 5.8 average (not to mention 914 yds and 6 tds), boosted no doubt by defense focusing on Brady (3,685 yds, 30 tds, 11 int, 14 sacks, 65.4% completion, 98.6 rating).

Conference Championships Point Spreads

2012-01-22T23:10:00.001-06:00

NFC Championship Game: Green Bay Packers +8 at New York Giants

AFC Championship Game: Denver Broncos +9 at Oakland Raiders

Conference Semi: DEN @ SD

2012-01-17T17:20:00.001-06:00

1. New York Giants (13-3)

2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3) Lost to Green Bay 31-21

4. Washington Redskins (12-4)

5. San Francisco 49ers (8-8) Lost to Washington 31-16

1. San Diego Chargers (14-2)

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7) Lost to Oakland 34-16

3. Oakland Raiders (12-4)

4. Denver Broncos (11-5)

5. Houston Oilers (10-6) Lost to Denver 31-20

Denver (12-5) +8 at San Diego (14-2)

The Chargers have a significant lead in overall matchups posting a 10-3 record over Denver since 2007, when John Conners took over the Broncos, including two playoff games and both games this season. However, the Broncos came into their own last year, sweeping the San Diego in the regular season and then defeating them in the AFC Championship game ultimately losing to Green Bay in the Super Bowl.

DEN Offense vs SD Defense

The Broncos have a powerful ground game with the #2 RB in the league Chris Johnson (1,542 yds, 11 tds, 4.8 avg) which sets up an efficient passing attack led by the two headed dragon of QB Jon Kitna (2,567 yds, 66% completion, 21 tds, 5 ints, 104.7 rating) and Jason Campbell (2,191 yds, 63.7%, 18 tds, 7 ints, 97.4 rating). By QB rating, these are the #3 and #7 QBs in the league. WR Reggie Wayne is the primary passing target (98 catches, 15 tds, 15.3 yds/catch). TE Vernon Davis is a distance second on the reception chart with 58 which makes rotates a lot of attention onto Wayne. They are only #8 in scoring. That's not bad but it isn't good enough against the top defense in land.

San Diego only allows 14.6 points a game. They are similiar to the Washington Redskins - a powerful offense puts pressure on the opposition to go to the air and the defense grounds it. 34 sacks, 14 picks led by DE Dwight Freeney (11 sacks) and CB Eric Weddle (4 interceptions). After squeaking by Denver in week 3, 35-31, they shut them out in week 12, 23-zip, allowing only 100 yards offense.

SD Offense vs DEN Defense

And if a crushing defense wasn't impossible enough to deal with, Denver has to face one of the top passing offenses in the league featuring QB Philip Rivers (4,171 yds, 37 tds, 8 ints) and WRs Larry Fitzgerald (68 catches, 6 tds) and Jennings (58 receptions, 11 tds). Thousand yard rusher Arian Foster (1,070 yds, 6 tds, 4.1 avg) provides plenty of distraction to keep defenses honest on the ground. In spite of not having a great run defense (#14, allowing 110 yds a game), the Bronco defense was able to contain Foster in both games...but not Rivers. Denver looks very bad against the pass, with only a few pass defense categories barely ranked #10 with most, like pass yards allowed, yards per completion, pass interception and sack percentages, #18 or higher. Of course, if your division has Tom Brady and Philip Rivers, your pass defense statistics are bound to not look too hot.

The Broncos may put up a good game but will eventually succomb to the eventual Super Bowl champ, the mighty San Diego Chargers.

Conference Semi: WAS @ NYG

2012-01-17T10:28:00.001-06:00

1. New York Giants (13-3)

2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3) Lost to Green Bay 31-21

4. Washington Redskins (12-4)

5. San Francisco 49ers (8-8) Lost to Washington 31-16

1. San Diego Chargers (14-2)

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7) Lost to Oakland 34-16

3. Oakland Raiders (12-4)

4. Denver Broncos (11-5)

5. Houston Oilers (10-6) Lost to Denver 31-20

Washington (13-4) +1 at New York (13-3)

This is the first time these division rivals have met in the playoffs. They split games this season. The Redskins won 31-20 in week 3, the Giants won 38-17 in week 12. Washington has a slight edge 8-6 in overall clashes.

NYG Offense vs WAS Defense

The Giants have a pass leaning offense led by QB Josh Freeman (3,034 yds, 28 tds, 5 ints, 101.1 rating), WR Hakeem Nicks (80 catches, 15 tds) and RB Felix Jones (958 yds, 4.3 avg, 5 tds). They were #4 in scoring averaging 25.4 points/game and rarely turn the ball over (+17 turnover ratio).

The Redskins have one of the best pass defenses in the league, ranking #1 in pass completion percentage (only 55.4%) and sacks (44). DE Jared Allen leads the team in sacks (12) followed by Trent Cole on the other end and DT Jonathan Babineaux who each have 9. This type of defense is the perfect balance to their powerful offense since teams frequently find themselves trailing and are forced to go to the air.

WAS Offense vs NYG Defense

The Washington offense is in the top 5 in almost a dozen categories including #1 in passing yards, #2 in net yards, #2 in points (26.4), #3 in rushing TDs (16). At the helm is QB Aaron Rodgers (4,162 yds, 28 tds, 18 ints, 92.3 rating) whose primary target is WR Terrell Owens (72 catches, 9 tds) and TE Tony Scheffler (53 catches, 2tds). Deep threat WR Nate Washington has terrorized secondaries all year with 48 receptions, 10 tds, averaging 21.5 yards a catch. Knowshon Moreno (762 yds, 6 tds, 3.8 avg) is the primary RB.

The Giants defense has mixed statistics against a passing team. Although they are #16 in passing yards allowed per game (211.4), they are #3 in pass rating (76.2) and #4 in passing TDs allowed (17). Perhaps their tendency to abruptly interrupt an offense drive with an INT (#1 in the league with 19 picks) or putting QBs on their backs (#5 in the league with 32 sacks) explains the odd numbers. OLB Cameron Wake leads the league in sacks with 17. However, picks and sacks did not make much difference in their week 3 loss, where Rodgers was picked off 3 times and sacked twice. In week 12, he was never sacked, only picked once and yet New York was the victor.

You just never know with these two teams.

Stay tuned for Denver (12-5) +8 at San Diego (14-2)...

Round 2 Point Spreads

2012-01-08T19:21:00.001-06:00

Special Thanks to Commishioner Cliff Dolgins and sportsattic.com host Chad Weyenberg for keeping the USAFL site up to date. The ability to look up historical records on the website instead of PCAction saved me a signficant amount of time in writing these previews.

1. New York Giants (13-3)

2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)

4. Washington Redskins (12-4)

5. San Francisco 49ers (8-8)

1. San Diego Chargers (14-2)

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7)

3. Oakland Raiders (12-4)

4. Denver Broncos (11-5)

5. Houston Oilers (10-6)

Green Bay (10-6) +4 vs Pittsburgh (13-3)

Pittsburgh has only lost to the Packers twice since the inception of the league, in 2009 and 2010. They've defeated them 8 times, including two Conference Championship games and a Conference Semi-Final game. Green Bay lost this year in OT, 30-24.

GB Offense vs PIT Defense

The Packers are the most prolific offense in the league, averaging 26.9 points a game. All Stud players Peyton Manning (3,957 yds, 34 TDs), Ray Rice (1,260 yds, 10 TDs) and Roddy White (120 catches, 17 TDs) smack down on opposing defenses with a demanding, complex, exciting playbook consisting of short passes and handing Rice the ball. Against Pittsburgh, Manning threw 100% short passes. Green Bay is one of at least 3 teams in the playoffs who have found out how to maximize the exploitation of PC Action's game engine. Great coaching, even if the play-by-play is rather monotonous.

This is a great matchup because Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses, allowing only 15.4 points/game. They are 5th in both passing and running yards allowed. The harass opposing QBs by picking them off (17 times) and sacking them (34 times). Manning had one of his worse outings of the season in Week 8 against the Steel Curtian, throwing 3 interceptions. But he still got 222 yds and 2 TDs. Most defenses just pray they can contain the Pack and wind up just being a bump in the road to Manning & Co. Pittsburgh has the persomnel to do a little more.

PIT Offense vs GB Defense

When GB is on offense, it's a close matchup, but going this direction, Pittsburgh has the edge. The Packers' top statistical areas on defense are Pass Attempts, Rushing Attempts and Penalties. This is evidence that this could be a "the best defense is a good offense" team. When a team's offense is so strong, it keeps opposing offenses off the field. In other defensive areas, like the most important one Points/Game, they only rank 17th, allowing 21.4 points per game. They are in the bottom 4 teams in the league in rushing TDs allowed (17), turnovers (14), interceptions (7) and yards allowed per passing attempt (7.5). Enter Mr. Ben Roethlisberger, a guy who knows how to pass.

Pittsburgh doesn't have any super star receivers but Derrick Mason (72 catches, 6 TDs) and Hines Ward (71 catches, 7 TDs) are excellent anchors to Big Ben's cast of targets. On the ground, Cedric Benson (1,189, 3.8 avg, 7 TDs) is the workhorse and Tim Hightower (572 yds, 4.2 avg, 6 TDs) is the flash. These two aren't as frightening as Ray Rice but they are enough of a threat to provide a balanced offense and open up the air.

Atlanta (9-7) +11 vs Oakland (12-4)

Like Green Bay and Pittsburgh, this is a clash between two original USAFL owners. In this matchup, Atlanta has...let's see, let me say it in trash talk terms...Atlanta has OWNED Oakland, defeating them during the regular season for 6 straight seasons. Until 2011, when Oakland, in their quest for their 2nd playoff appearance ever, beat them 20-3 in week 11. Incidently, 11 also happens to be how many points the Raiders are favored by.

ATL Offense vs OAK Defense

Well, well, well. The 21st ranked scoring offense against the 5th ranked defense. That explains why the Falcons only got 3 points in their regular season game. But they shouldn't feel too bad, Oakland only allowed an average of 17 points per game. They are smothering on pass defense which happens to be Atlanta's strength led by QB Matt Schaub (3,918 yds, 18 TDs), WR Pierre "Frenchie" Garcon (72 catches, 6 TDs) and H-Back Dustin Keller (66 catches, 3 TDs). To make things worse, they have one of the worst ground games around so they can't exploit one of the few chinks in the Raider defensive armor. Let's move on, this is depressing...

OAK Offense vs ATL Defense

Ah ha! Now, here's where it gets interesting. A lot of teams whithered under the barrage of Tom Brady (3,685 yds, 30 TDs) passes to Dwayne Bowe (75 catches, 8 TDs), Miles Austin (63 catches, 5 TDs) and, wait, where'd he go? Brandon Marshall (50 catches, 7 TDs). Yes, Mr. Marshall, seemed to go girly-boy for several games. Hopefully, his NFL 86 receptions will show up for a playoff game? The Falcon defense, though, hung in there, limiting him to only 1 TD and slamming him to the turf twice. The Atlanta defense doesn't get a lot of sacks and picks but they have been able to suppress passing attacks. Unfortunately, they will also have to look out for Darren McFadden (914 yds, 5.8 avg, 6 TDs) who they like to send right up the gut.

Playoffs Wild Card

2012-01-08T15:01:00.001-06:00

Week 16 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 67% (129 out of 192)

1. New York Giants (13-3)

2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)

4. Washington Redskins (12-4)

5. San Francisco 49ers (8-8)

1. San Diego Chargers (14-2)

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7)

3. Oakland Raiders (12-4)

4. Denver Broncos (11-5)

5. Houston Oilers (10-6)

#5 San Francisco (8-8) +6 at Washington (12-4)

Deja Vu. This is a rematch of a Round 2 playoff game last season where #2 Washington defeated #3 San Francisco 38-28. The Redskins are 6-2 against the 49ers, with the two losses in the 2005 and 2010 seasons. If their 2011 regular season game is any indicator, this game will come down to the wire. Washington scored 31 unanswered points in the first half to go up 31-3 at half time. In the second half, the 49ers scored 21 unanswered points to make it 31-24 with 5:30 left in the game. The 49ers managed to get the ball back with 1:21 remaining but couldn't tie it up.

WAS Offense vs SF Defense

The Redskins have one of the top passing attacks in the league led by QB Aaron Rodgers (4,162 yds, 28 TDs), WR Terrell Owns (69 catches, 9 TDs) and WR Nate Washington (48 catches, 10 TDs). The 49ers defense does not match up well against one of the worst secondaries in the league, 23rd in yards per game (236) and 18th in passing TDs allowed (18). However, they do have 16 picks, led by S Eric Berry with 5 and they are decent at keeping the yards per completion down.

The 49ers only allow 94 yards a game on the ground (4th in the league) but that may be partially because opponents like to air it out against them. Still, the Redskins have an average running game (100 yds/game) so that will be an interesting factor in the game.

SF Offense vs WAS Defense

The 49ers have monster RB Jamaal Charles (1,594 yds, 6.2 avg, 9 tds), the top RB in the league, softening up defenses for QB Matt Ryan (3,505 yds, 24 TDs) to toss a few to WR Stevie Johnson (87 catches, 6 TDs). It's a decent, although not spectacular offense, but it gets the job done. Ryan is a high completion, low interception guy. He is vulnerable to sacks because of a weak offensive line. This is a great sequeway to describing the Washington defense who have 44 sacks for the season, #1 in the league. Opponents love to pass against them (574 attempts, most against any other team except SF) yet they are still 4th in pass yds/game (186 yds). That is one stout pass defense. They do allow some yards on the ground (99 yds/game), 22nd in the league in rushing average allowed (4.7). Charles rolled for 153 yds and a 6.4 avg when they played this year.

#4 Houston (10-6) +9 at Denver (11-5)

Congratulations to the Houston Oilers and their very first playoff appearance. The Broncos smoked the Oilers in week 4, 30-3, but lost to them in week 13, 27-13. Two turnovers early set up 14 points for Houston.

HOU Offense vs DEN Defense

The Oilers are average in putting points up (19.8/game) but have a top tier RB in Peyton Hillis (1,232 yds, 4.1 avg, 9 TDs) and WR Andre Johnson (89 catches, 4 TDs). Alex Smith and David Garrard have shared QB duties. Johnson's sidekick, WR Santonio Holmes, and TE Todd Heap are injured and are going to be very missed. The Broncos like to double team Johnson and this will only encourage them more. Houston is going to struggle sustaining an offensive attack.

DEN Offense vs HOU Defense

These are the strengths of these teams. The Broncos also have a top RB and WR : Chris Johnson (1,542 yds, 4.8 avg, 11 TDs) and Reggie Wayne (98 catches, 15 tds). Somehow Mile High Magic transformed QB Pair Jon Kitna and Jason Campbell into far superior QBs to their real counterparts combining for 5,778 yds and 39 tds. The Oilers have an excellent run defense but give up a lot of yards in the air.

USAFL Week 16 Point Spreads

2011-12-23T22:19:00.001-06:00

Week 15 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 68% (122 out of 180)

NFC Playoff Situation

#1 Seed: New York (Giants), Pittsburgh or Washington
#2 Seed: Green Bay, NFC Central Champions
#3 Seed: New York (Giants), Pittsburgh or Washington
#4 Seed: New York (Giants), Pittsburgh or Washington
#5 Seed: Chicago, Detroit or San Francisco

If NYG wins, they are NFC East Champions and the #1 seed
If NYG wins, the winner of the PIT-WAS game is the #3 seed, the loser the #4 seed
If NYG loses, the winner of the PIT-WAS game are NFC East Champions
If NYG loses, they are the #3 seed and the loser of the PIT-WAS game is the #4 seed

If CHI wins, they are the #5 seed
If CHI loses and DET beats SF, DET is the #5 seed

If CHI loses and SF beats DET, SF is the #5 seed

AFC Playoff Situation

#1 Seed: San Diego, AFC Central Champions
#2 Seed: Atlanta, AFC East Champions
#3 Seed: Denver or Oakland
#4 Seed: Denver, Oakland or Houston
#5 Seed: Denver, Oakland or Houston

Winner of DEN-OAK is the #3 seed

If HOU wins, they will be the #4 seed and loser of DEN-OAK is #5 seed
If HOU loses, they will be the #5 seed and loser of DEN-OAK is #4 seed

+01 Boston (5-10) at Atlanta (9-6)

Falcons have locked up the #2 seed.

+03 Baltimore (6-9) vs Chicago (8-7)

Bears are in with a win, out with a loss.

+03 Kansas City (2-13) vs Cincinnati (7-8)

Bengals better than expected (6-10), Chiefs much worse than expected (6-10)

+03 Oakland (11-4) at Denver (11-4)

Both are in the playoffs. Broncos upset the Raiders in Week 1.

+03 New York (A) (7-8) vs Carolina (7-8)

Both teams were expected to be a playoff bound, especially the Panthers.

+03 Washington (12-3) at Pittsburgh (12-3)

Winner would be NFC East Champions and #1 seed if NYG lose.

+06 Miami (4-11) at Buffalo (4-11)

Both teams have done about as well as expected.

+06 Dallas (6-9) vs Cleveland (6-9)

Browns are in good hands for the future with owner Crawford Davis.

+07 San Francisco (7-8) at Detroit (8-7)

Lions expected to win division find themselves fighting to even make the playoffs.

+07 Minnesota (1-14) at Green Bay (10-5)

Meaningless game for the Packers who are guaranteed #2 seed.

+14 Houston (10-5) at San Diego (13-2)

Chargers are lock #1 seed, Oilers have a slot, whether it's #4 or #5.

+21 Philadelphia (2-13) at New York (N) (12-3)

Giants could earn their first division championship.

USAFL Week 15 Point Spreads

2011-12-15T10:58:00.001-06:00

Week 14 Accuracy: 92% (11 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 68% 115 out of 168

+03 Minnesota (1-13) at San Francisco (6-8)
Detroit has the leg up over SF for the last playoff slot.

+03 Chicago (7-7) vs Green Bay (10-4)
Packers are NFC Central Champs

+03 Cincinnati (6-8) vs Denver (11-3)
Broncos broke 2 game losing streak, not the time to start another

+03 Atlanta (9-5) at New York (A) (6-8)
Falcons are AFC East Champs

+03 Cleveland (6-8) at Washington (11-3)
Browns could put a kink in Redskins division run

+05 Buffalo (4-10) at Boston (4-10)
Expected records by this point: BUF 2-12, BOS 6-8

+07 Houston (9-5) vs Oakland (11-3)
Two playoff bound teams. Oilers have the lost slot

+07 New York (N) (11-3) vs Pittsburgh (12-2)
Winner takes division lead

+07 Philadelphia (2-12) vs Dallas (5-9)
Eagles' upsets over CLE and SF were bright spot in poor season.

+13 Baltimore (5-9) at Detroit (8-6)
Looks like the Lions get first trip to the playoffs

+17 Miami (4-10) at Carolina (6-8)
No playoffs for the Panthers

+19 Kansas City (2-12) at San Diego (12-2)
Chargers still hanging onto division lead

USAFL Week 14 Point Spreads

2011-12-08T10:17:00.003-06:00

Week 13 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)
Seasons Accuracy: 67% (104 out of 156)

+01 Buffalo (4-9) vs Atlanta (8-5)
A Falcon win seals the division crown.

+01 Dallas (5-8) vs New York (N) (10-3)
Cowboys traded away QB Jason Campbell. Now it's Henne or Tebow at the helm.

+03 Cleveland (6-7) at Pittsburgh (11-2)
Will the Browns trip up the Steelers' pursuit of the division?

+06 Oakland (11-2) at San Diego (11-2)
Raiders were also underdogs in week 2 but went on to win 27-13.

+07 San Francisco (5-8) vs Chicago (7-6)
Bears in the midst of brutal fight for playoff shot.

+07 Cincinnati (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Could be critical game. Winner may wind up in the last playoff slot.

+09 Boston (4-9) at Carolina (5-8)
A must win for any hope at the playoffs.

+10 Baltimore (5-8) at Green Bay (9-4)
Super Bowl Champs looking good for another run in the playoffs.

+10 Kansas City (2-11) at Denver (10-3)
What a division. Three teams battling for supremacy: DEN, SD, OAK.

+16 Minnesota (1-12) at Detroit (7-6)
Lions keep playoff hopes alive.

+17 Miami (4-9) at New York (A) (5-8)
Jets are still a potential playoff team even at 5-8.

+21 Philadelphia (2-11) at Washington (10-3)
Washington keeps up with Pittsburgh and New York Giants in division.

USAFL Week 13 Point Spreads

2011-11-30T11:09:00.007-06:00

Week 12 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 67% (97 out of 144)

+01 Detroit (6-6) at Chicago (7-5)

Pre-season SB favorite Lions could miss the playoffs???

+03 Miami (4-8) vs Atlanta (7-5)
Falcons defeat of Carolina gives them 2 game lead in division.

+06 Buffalo (3-9) vs Carolina (5-7)

Panthers probably need to win division to make playoffs.

+03 Boston (4-8) vs New York (A) (4-8)
Very slim shot at the playoffs for these two teams.

+03 Dallas (5-7) vs Washington (9-3)
Cowboys alternate being the upsetter and the upsettee.

+04 Cleveland (6-6) vs New York (N) (9-3)
CLE has won 5 of last 6 games after starting 0-5.

+07 Minnesota (1-11) vs Baltimore (4-8)
Colts are sandbagging. They can defeat GB and PIT but have 8 losses?

+07 San Francisco (5-7) at Green Bay (8-4)
Peyton Manning sends flowers to 49er CBs as pre-emptive thanks.

+08 Houston (7-5) at Denver (10-2)
Broncos shutout last week for first time since 9/2008.

+14 Kansas City (2-10) at Oakland (10-2)
Chiefs start pow-wowing about 2012 draft...

+15 Cincinnati (5-7) vs San Diego (11-1)
Chargers will be 2011 Champs. They dominated a 10-1 Denver last week.

+21 Philadelphia (2-10) vs Pittsburgh (10-2)
Starter Brett Favre is out. Backup John Skelton didn't do too bad in loss to CLE.

USAFL Week 12 Point Spreads

2011-11-23T11:01:00.004-06:00

Week 11 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 67% (88 out of 132)

+01 Washington (9-2) at New York (N) (8-3)
Giants need to avoid being swept by the Redskins

+03 San Francisco (4-7) at Baltimore (4-7)
Colts were upset by SF in week 3, could be again.

+03 Kansas City (2-9) vs Houston (6-5)
Oilers are 4th place in AFC Central but have same record as AFC East leader.

+05 Denver (10-1) at San Diego (10-1)
Speaking of swept: DEN swept SD last season, will SD return the favor?

+06 Atlanta (6-5) vs Carolina (5-6)
Battle for the AFC East. Falcons had Panther prey in early season game.

+06 Buffalo (3-8) at New York (A) (3-8)J
ets were supposed to fly high this season, should be 8-3 by now.

+07 Minnesota (1-10) vs Chicago (6-5)
Both NFC divisions are competitive, Bears are a game behind Green Bay

+07 Green Bay (7-4) at Detroit (6-5)
Packers crushed the Lions 31-10 in an upset in first meeting.

+08 Miami (4-7) vs Boston (3-8)
At least the Dolphins have twice the wins as expected. Good job.

+13 Dallas (5-6) at Pittsburgh (9-2)
Cowboys hope running game keeps Roethlisberge & Co. off the field.

+14 Cincinnati (5-6) at Oakland (9-2)
The Bengals are doing about as well as they can in the midst of a monster division.

+17 Philadelphia (2-9) at Cleveland (5-6)
The Browns have a shot at 10-6 (really), the Eagles will not win another game.

USAFL Week 11 Point Spreads

2011-11-16T10:21:00.004-06:00

Week 10 Accuracy: 92% (11 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 67% (81 out of 120)

+01 Cincinnati (4-6) vs New York (A) (3-7)
Odd fact: Bengals have 5 kickers on their roster.

+01 Boston (2-8) at Kansas City (2-8)
Backup QB Matt Stafford will lead KC to victory?

+03 Carolina (5-5) at San Diego (9-1)
Two excellent defenses. Panthers need big games from Jone-Drew and McCoy.

+03 Detroit (6-4) vs Washington (8-2)
Redskins prolific passing game vs Lion shutdown pass defense.

+03 Cleveland (4-6) at Green Bay (7-3)
Matt Cassel is out for CLE, an upset will be difficult.

+03 Dallas (4-6) at San Francisco (4-6)
Cowboys have a rough schedule ahead - PIT, WAS, NYG...

+06 Chicago (6-4) vs Pittsburgh (8-2)
With WR Kenny Britt out, Bears lean on H-back Jacob Tamme.

+07 Philadelphia (2-8) at Baltimore (3-7)
Unfortunately, Colts defensive strength matches up with Philly's offensive strength (passing game)

+13 Buffalo (2-8) at Houston (6-4)
Oilers could pull off an 8 or 9 win seasons.

+13 Minnesota (1-9) vs New York (N) (7-3)
Giants have two key defensive guys out - DL Seymour and S Landry

+16 Atlanta (6-4) at Oakland (8-2)
Falcons have racked up a nice collection of upsets, minor and major.

+21 Miami (4-6) at Denver (9-1)

Seems like a team with Adrian Peterson and Wes Welker would be better than 23rd in scoring.

USAFL Week 10 Point Spreads

2011-11-08T07:29:00.001-06:00

Week 9 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 65% (70 out of 108)

+03 Philadelphia (2-7) vs Minnesota (0-9)
Vikings get first win??? Only game this season they will be favored.

+03 Green Bay (7-2) at New York (N) (6-3)
NYG's Eli Manning begs to start against brother Peyton. No, Eli, no.

+03 Dallas (4-5) vs Detroit (5-4)
Could injured Cowboy kicker be the difference?

+06 Kansas City (2-7) at New York (A) (2-7)
Chiefs go for Upset #3 at the Jets.

+07 Cincinnati (4-5) at Carolina (4-5)
Bengals have a little 2 game winning streak going. Panthers stunned by KC last week.

+07 Miami (4-5) vs Houston (5-4)
Dolphins slipping behind in AFC East.

+07 San Francisco (4-5) at Cleveland (3-6)
Which 49ers team will show up? The one that upset NYG last week or the one that lost to Philly the week before?

+09 Atlanta (6-3) vs Denver (8-1)
Falcons are overachieving but defeating the Broncos would be unbelievable.

+10 Boston (2-7) vs Oakland (7-2)
Patriots had to face Denver and Oakland back to back. Ouch.

+10 Chicago (6-3) at Washington (7-2)
Redskins want some Steeler scalp and keep the pressure on with win against Bears.

+16 Baltimore (2-7) at Pittsburgh (8-1)
Steelers have some injury problems but should still defeat Baltimore.

+18 Buffalo (2-7) vs San Diego (8-1)
AFC Central race is brutal: Denver, San Diego at 8-1, followed by Oakland at 7-2.

USAFL Week 9 Point Spreads

2011-11-01T13:25:00.005-05:00

Week 8 Accuracy : 41% (5 out of 12)
Season Accuracy : 66% (63 out of 96)

+01 New York (A) (2-6) at Oakland (6-2)

Last week, QB Tom Brady had worst game since become a Raider.

+01 Chicago (5-3) vs Dallas (4-4)
Bears upset by a 2-5 Cleveland team last week.

+03 Atlanta (5-3) at Houston (5-3)
Oilers are 4th place at 5-3 in a very tough division.

+03 Buffalo (2-6) at Cincinnati (3-5)
Bills have lost 3 in a row, including at home against KC last week.

+03 Cleveland (3-5) at Detroit (4-4)
Lions are unachieving but still just 2 games behind division leader GB.

+07 Baltimore (2-6) vs Washington (6-2)
Redskins QB Aaron Rodgers threw 5 touchdown passes last week.

+10 Kansas City (1-7) vs Carolina (4-4)
Panthers had big upset of Oakland last week. (But late!)

+13 Minnesota (0-8) vs Pittsburgh (7-1)
Vikings own longest losing streak. 8 games and counting...

+14 Boston (2-6) at Denver (7-1)
Broncos and Chargers continue to duke it out for division leader.

+14 San Francisco (3-5) vs New York (N) (6-2)
Surely, 49er coach will show up to take down the Giants? (Update: Yes, He Did! 24-13)

+16 Philadelphia (2-6) at Green Bay (6-2)
Packers quickly recover from lost to PIT in overtime last week.

+17 Miami (4-4) at San Diego (7-1)
Hmmm...Dolphins may not win again the rest of the season.

USAFL Week 8 Point Spreads

2011-10-25T10:45:00.001-05:00

Week 7 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 69% (58 out of 84)

+03 Boston (2-5) vs Houston (4-3)
Injury issues for both teams. Oilers will run over Patriot defense.

+03 Cincinnati (2-5) at Miami (4-3)
Dolphins QB Orton is probable. They need him.

+03 Kansas City (0-7) at Buffalo (2-5)
Bills stop 2 game losing streak, Chiefs keep going...

+03 Pittsburgh (6-1) vs Green Bay (6-1)
This will be a good one.

+03 New York (N) (5-2) vs Detroit (4-3)
Two stout defenses along with offense with some punch.

+03 Cleveland (2-5) vs Chicago (5-2)
Bears score 95.2% of the time in the Red Zone. Best in league.

+03 Baltimore (2-5) at Dallas (3-4)
Colts have been on the decline since stunning upset of GB in week 2.

+07 New York (A) (2-5) vs Denver (6-1)
Both teams have great running games but only the Broncos have the 'D'.

+07 Atlanta (5-2) vs San Diego (6-1)
Chargers can not let up, tied with Denver and Oakland in division.

+07 Philadelphia (1-6) vs San Francisco (3-4)
49ers almost tripped up Pittsburgh last week.

+13 Minnesota (0-7) at Washington (5-2)
Oof. Vikes have Drew Brees and can't win with him.

+14 Carolina (3-4) vs Oakland (6-1)
Panthers are down to 3rd string QB Charlie Batch

USAFL Week 7 Point Spreads

2011-10-18T14:16:00.001-05:00

Week 6 Accuracy: 83% (10 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 68% (49 out of 72)

+01 Houston (3-3) vs New York (A) (2-4)
DT Kris Jenkins out for the Oilers, that'll hurt.

+03 Cleveland (1-5) at Baltimore (2-4)
Browns are playing below expectations, Colts are playing near expectation.

+03 Washington (5-1) at Green Bay (5-1)
Oof! I'd like to have a ticket to this one.

+03 Kansas City (0-6) vs Miami (3-3)
Dolphins still the team to watch even with big loss to Raiders last week.

+03 Chicago (4-2) vs New York (N) (5-1)
Another good one. I'd say I want tickets but I'm coaching in it.

+03 Cincinnati (2-4) vs Atlanta (4-2)
Falcons be wary, your division lead is in the balance.

+07 Carolina (3-3) at Denver (5-1)
Sorry Panthers, Broncos are in dogfight for their own division.

+10 San Francisco (3-3) vs Pittsburgh (5-1)
49ers hard to predict. They need their great coach EVERY GAME.

+07 Minnesota (0-6) vs Dallas (2-4)
Neither team doing anything special. Not a single upset between them.

+14 Boston (2-4) at San Diego (5-1)
Patriots, oh Patriots - upset two games in a row now.

+19 Buffalo (2-4) at Oakland (5-1)
Bills two wins were huge upsets. Great to see spoilers like that.

+25 Philadelphia (1-5) at Detroit (3-3)
Lions were supposed to win their division, they are 3rd so far.

USAFL Week 6 Point Spreads

2011-10-11T11:34:00.001-05:00

Week 5 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 65% (39 out of 60)

+01 Cincinnati (1-4) at Boston (2-3)
Patriots upset by Buffalo last week, potential for another.

+02 Minnesota (0-5) at Cleveland (0-5)
The Browns are a major underachieving team, they should have 2 wins.

+02 Dallas (2-3) vs Green Bay (4-1)
Green Bay needed a TD with 6 seconds left to avoid upset last week.

+03 Houston (2-3) at Carolina (3-2)
Oilers have good run defense to contain Panthers but no offense.

+04 Detroit (3-2) at Pittsburgh (4-1)
Steelers bounce back from first loss.

+04 Kansas City (0-5) at Atlanta (3-2)
No scalps for the Chiefs this week.

+05 San Francisco (3-2) at Washington (4-1)
Both teams still in the race for their divisions.

+09 New York (A) (2-3) vs San Diego (4-1)
Jets defense will be like tissue paper to Rivers et al.

+11 Baltimore (2-3) at New York (N) (4-1)
Colts stunned the Packers in week 2, Giants will be wary.

+16 Miami (3-2) vs Oakland (4-1)
Dolphins, after pulling off two upsets, will be sushi for the Raiders.

+20 Philadelphia (1-4) vs Chicago (3-2)
Bears trying to keep pressure on division leader Green Bay.

+20 Buffalo (2-3) vs Denver (4-1)
Bills are uber-overachievers this season but no match for Broncos.

USAFL Week 5 Point Spreads

2011-10-03T12:07:00.001-05:00

Week 4 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 62% (30 out of 48)

+01 Atlanta (3-1) vs New York (A) (1-3)

Underperforming Jets have a chance to start moving back up.

+01 Cleveland (0-4) vs Washington (3-1)

Simulation believes in the Browns too much.

+04 New York (N) (3-1) at Pittsburgh (4-0)

Steelers last undefeated team in the league, dominating opponents.

+05 Chicago (3-1) at Green Bay (3-1)

Packer offense is a scoring machine.

+07 Minnesota (0-4) vs San Francisco (2-2)

49ers offense will own the Vikings.

+07 Baltimore (2-2) vs Detroit (2-2)

Lions have stumbled big the past two weeks.

+10 Buffalo (1-3) vs Boston (2-2)

The Bills' record doesn't show how competitive they coach.

+12 Houston (2-2) at Oakland (3-1)

Raider strength is defense. Offense is not impressive, however.

+16 Cincinnati (1-3) at Denver (3-1)

This is not a bad matchup. Bengals might keep it closer.

+16 Philadelphia (1-3) at Dallas (1-3)

Didn't see this coming. On paper, Eagles should pass for 400 yds.

+18 Miami (2-2) vs Carolina (3-1)

Dolphins shocked Atlanta last week with a huge upset.

+19 Kansas City (0-4) vs San Diego (3-1)

2/3 of Chief OLBs are injured.

USAFL Week 4 Point Spreads

2011-09-27T12:39:00.001-05:00

Week 3 Accuracy: 41%! (5 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 58%! (21 out of 36)

+01 Boston (1-2) at New York (A) (1-2)
Buffalo upset the Jets last week. This won't be easy.

+03 Houston (2-1) vs Denver (2-1)
Four-way tie in the AFC Central. This will help break that up.

+03 San Francisco (2-1) vs Green Bay (2-1)
Packers have best pass defense, 49ers have excellent offense.

+04 Buffalo (1-2) at Carolina (2-1)
Da Bills do NOT match up well against the Panthers.

+05 Minnesota (0-3) at Baltimore (1-2)
Two very bad defenses. A Score Fest?

+10 Miami (1-2) at Atlanta (3-0)
Falcons only one of two undefeated teams left.

+10 Cleveland (0-3) at New York (N) (2-1)
Giants bound back from upset to the Eagles.

+10 Dallas (1-2) at Washington (2-1)
Redskins scalp the Cowboys.

+11 Chicago (2-1) at Detroit (2-1)
Later game between these two foes will be closer.

+13 Cincinnati (1-2) at San Diego (2-1)
Oh...that four-way tie in AFC Central becomes a 3 way tie.

+14 Kansas City (0-3) vs Oakland (2-1)
KC last in offense, 23rd in defense. Oof.

+21 Philadelphia (1-2) at Pittsburgh (3-0)
Steelers are in Top 10 Teams in almost all offensive and defensive categories.

USAFL Week 3 Point Spreads

2011-09-23T15:15:00.001-05:00

Week 2 Accuracy: 80% (10 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 66% (16 out of 24)

+01 Miami (1-1) at Boston (0-2)

Dolphins may pull off more than the expected 3 wins.

+02 San Francisco (1-1) vs Baltimore (1-1)

Ravens coming off surprise upset of Green Bay. This will be a good game.

+03 Atlanta (2-0) at Carolina (2-0)

Falcons aren't supposed to make 8 wins, upset here would be big.

+03 Minnesota (0-2) at Chicago (1-1)

Bears allowed 49ers a big 4th quarter last week.

+04 San Diego (1-1) at Denver (2-0)

Charger QB Philip Rivers was terrible last week in Oakland.

+04 Cincinnati (1-1) vs Oakland (1-1)

Raider offense is rolling.

+05 Green Bay (1-1) vs Detroit (2-0)

First real test for Lions. Are they for real?

+07 Kansas City (0-2) at Houston (1-1)

Chiefs are allowing far more points than expected.

+09 Philadelphia (0-2) vs Cleveland (0-2)

Somebody is gonna get their first win.

+10 Dallas (1-1) vs Pittsburgh (2-0)

Steelers starting off strong again. Roethlisberger and Benson are doing well.

+10 Buffalo (0-2) vs New York (A) (1-1)

Jet QB M. Vick spreads his passes around.

+13 Washington (1-1) vs New York (N) (2-0)

Possible high scoring game - Giants have trouble with Aaron Rodgers every season.

USAFL Week 2 Point Spreads

2011-09-12T17:39:00.005-05:00

Week 1 Accuracy: 50% (6 out of 12)

-01 San Diego (1-0) at Oakland (0-1)

Chargers win really launches bid for the division over the Raiders.

-01 San Francisco (0-1) at Chicago (1-0)

Good start for Chicago. The 49ers will be a good test for them.

+03 Cincinnati (1-0) vs Houston (0-1)

Bengal Carson Palmer lit up the KC defense last week but Oiler defense is better.

+04 Boston (0-1) vs Carolina (1-0)

Patriots have to face Carolina after getting dominated by Atlanta.

+06 Cleveland (0-1) vs Pittsburgh (1-0)

Browns were supposed to shake up the division but were upset by Dallas.

+07 Buffalo (0-1) at Atlanta (1-0)

Falcons crushed Boston in week 1 upset.

+07 Dallas (1-0) at New York (N) (1-0)

Cowboys upset Cleveland last week ,allowing only 36 yards on the ground.

+07 Kansas City (0-1) vs Denver (1-0)

Denver's upset of Oakland last week establishes them as a competitor.

+07 Philadelphia (0-1) vs Washington (0-1)

Redskins' Aaron Rodgers bounces back from 5 sack, 1 int, 1 td game.

+10 Minnesota (0-1) vs Detroit (1-0)

Lions fans are going to be so happy this season - could be best year ever.

+10 Green Bay (1-0) at Baltimore (0-1)

Sweetheart deal between teams extends to the game as well.

+14 Miami (1-0) vs New York (A) (0-1)
Gonna be a very, very long season for the Dolphins.

USAFL Week 1 Point Spreads

2011-08-29T09:47:00.001-05:00

+03 Pittsburgh (0-0) at Washington (0-0)

Curiously, Steeler offense only ranked 10th in simulation.

+03 Miami (0-0) vs Buffalo (0-0)

Could be highpoint of the season for the team that wins.

+03 Atlanta (0-0) at Boston (0-0)

Falcons play the Patriots closer this season.

+04 New York (A) (0-0) at Carolina (0-0)

Jet's must take both Panther games as do-or-die for playoffs.

+06 Detroit (0-0) at San Francisco (0-0)

Re-emergent Lions get out-coached.

+7 Kansas City (0-0) at Cincinnati (0-0)

Bengals attack Powwow of Chiefs - snack heavily.

+08 Minnesota (0-0) vs Green Bay (0-0)

Cheeseheads extend regular season consecutive win streak to 26.

+09 Baltimore (0-0) at Chicago (0-0)

Bears are improved from last season.

+07 Dallas (0-0) at Cleveland (0-0)

Browns should double their wins of last year (4), starting now.

+10 Denver (0-0) at Oakland (0-0)

Broncos swept the Raiders a combined 47-6 last season. Payback time.

+10 Philadelphia (0-0) vs New York (N) (0-0)

Eagles are grounded.

+14 Houston (0-0) vs San Diego (0-0)

The Chargers will be double digit favorites for many games this season.

Point Spread Generator

2011-08-23T23:01:00.003-05:00

This is the main screen from Dallas Tech Center's Point Spread Generator. Click on it to zoom. This shows a post season report of Green Bay from last year. This season I am tinkering with the formula in an attempt to improve my ability to pick winners which has held steady at around 70%. If you yahoos would just coach like the boring computer, I would be picking at 95%. But noooooo, you have to be creative. So, here's to another great USAFL season and a 5-10% improvement from the DTC.

What? You thought those spreads were just pulled out of a hat?

Raider Nation Reigns

2011-08-15T09:43:00.001-05:00

The Oakland Raiders have emerged, narrowly, as the pre-season favorite to be the USAFL Champs for the 2011 season. Mike Chase has been Coach/General Manager for the Raiders since the league inception but has led the team to the playoffs once: a wild card loss to the Jets in 2008. That was also the only year Oakland won more than 50% of its games and the only year it has had double digit wins, going 10-6. Raider Nation exists in a tough division usually dominated by San Diego and Denver who went 13-3 and 14-2 last year, respectively. The road to the division crown and, ultimately, the Super Bowl will be via the two OAK-SD contests.

Results based on 20 simulated seasons using the official schedule.

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh (11-5) Has won division 4 out of 6 seasons

2. Washington (10-6) Great chance taking division back-to-back

3. New York Giants (9-7) In the mix.

3. Cleveland (9-7) Browns could make things interesting in division this season.

5. Dallas (7-9) Second year in a row finishing below 50%

6. Philadelphia (4-12) Long playoff drought for the Eagles.

NFC Central

1. Detroit (11-5) Lions spring out of years of mediocrity?

2. Green Bay (9-7) Defending SB Champs have gone 28-4 over past two seasons.

3. Baltimore (8-8) George Watt brings the Colts back.

4. Chicago (7-9) Two seasons in a row to miss the playoffs?

5. San Francisco (6-10) Frank Aluzzi took a 1-15 team to 13-3 in two years.

6. Minnesota (4-12) 12-4 -> 7-9 -> 4-12. Vikes Yikes!

AFC East

1. Carolina (11-5) Less competitive inter-division this season.

2. New York Jets (9-7) 4x the wins of last season but playoff slot will be tough to get.

3. Boston (7-9) Too bad. Last season went 11-5 and playoffs for best season ever.

3. Atlanta (7-9) Perennial playoff team not looking that great.

5. Buffalo (4-12) Bob Durfee's second season with franchise. Can he turn this team around?

6. Miami (3-13) Odd. Team has some talent, hard to believe only 3 wins.

AFC Central

1. Oakland (13-3) Weeks 2 and 14 vs SD baby!

2. San Diego (12-4) Defense! Stomp, stomp! Defense! Stomp, stomp!

3. Denver (10-6) Crushed by OAK in week 1, squeaks by OAK in week 16.

4. Houston (8-8) Tim Moore get Oiler well productive again.

5. Cincinnati (6-10) Richard Robb took them from 4-12 to 9-7 but this is a setback.

5. Kansas City (6-10) Far from playoffs but 6 wins are better than only 1 from last year.

Pre-Season Update

2011-08-09T19:44:00.001-05:00

As soon as the official season schedule is added, I will create a new pre-season prediction based on simulations using it.

As I went through the prior results, I found a couple of issues that affected the results. I run multiple simulations with computer generated schedule, depth charts, lineups and coaching templates so I rely heavily on the software to be consistent on what it does.

1. The computer generated schedule included 5 duplicate games. A team played the same out-of-division opponent twice. It didn't even alternate home and away teams.

2. I found at least one instance where the software generated formation preferences in the Gameplan did not make sense for the personnel on the team.

#1 won't be a problem with the official schedule. #2 will require me to manually check every Computer Generated GamePlan unless Dave changes the program.

SD or OAK or CAR vs PIT or DET or NYG

2011-08-04T17:16:00.001-05:00

If the simulation results from the Dallas Technology Center's labs are any indication, the USAFL 2011 season promises to be a bloody battle for the championship. The average wins of the top 3 teams in each conference are within 1 game of each other. For the AFC: San Diego, Oakland and Carolina; for the NFC: Pittsburgh, Detroit and New York (Giants).

The Chargers averaged the most wins over a simulation of 40 (yes FORTY) seasons, going 13-3. The Raiders and Panthers were right behind with 12-4 records. The AFC Central is easily the most dominate division in the league with 4 out of 6 teams expected to finish with winning records: SD (13-3), OAK (12-4), HOU (10-6) and DEN (9-7). The other teams with winning records in the conference are CAR (12-4) and NYJ (9-7).

The Steelers, Lions and Giants all averaged 11-5 records. Green Bay and Cleveland are the next tier with 9-7 records.

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh (11-5) Steelers have never finished below 11-5.

1. New York Giants (11-5) Shot at first division crown.

3. Cleveland (9-7) Well, hello Browns! First winning season ever.

4. Washington (8-8) Defending division champ is a great spoiler.

5. Dallas (7-9) Cowboys endure a second down year.

6. Philadelphia (3-13) Eagles still grounded.

NFC Central

1. Detroit (11-5) Lion Country rejoice! First time visit to the playoffs!

2. Green Bay (9-7) SB Champs have won 25 consecutive regular season games.

3. Baltimore (7-9) Progress in Pony Town.

3. San Francisco (7-9) Blitz-happy over-achiever to 13-3 last season.

5. Chicago (6-10) Two seasons in a row to miss the playoffs?

6. Minnesota (5-11) Whazzup with the Vikings.

AFC East

1. Carolina (12-4) Division title should not be any trouble.

2. New York Jets (9-7) Could squeak out a playoff slot.

3. Boston (8-8) Chance at playoffs, needs to out coach NYJ and HOU.

4. Atlanta (7-9) First time to miss playoffs in 5 years

5. Buffalo (5-11) Uptick 2 wins since last season but needs a lot more work.

6. Miami (3-13) Dolphins remain underwater. One of only 3 teams never to make playoffs.

AFC Central

1. San Diego (13-3) #1 Offense + #2 Defense = Super Bowl

2. Oakland (12-4) Matchups vs SD will be games to watch

3. Houston (10-6) First winning season in franchise history?

4. Denver (9-7) Superior coaching will put wins into double digits.

5. Cincinnati (6-10) Setback from nice improvement (9-7) last season.

5. Kansas City (6-10) Lianos reviving Chiefs from the dead.

Round 1 Picks In: CAR or SD vs PIT in SB!

2011-07-03T19:08:00.005-05:00

This will be the final pre-season prediction until the draft is done.

Based on 20 seasons of a computer-generated schedule, it looks like the Panthers and Chargers will face each other in the AFC Championship game. The Steelers could be facing division rival Giants in the NFC Championship. Both CAR and SD have the edge over PIT in the SB.

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh (12-4) Led by #2 defense but #7 offense is a weakness.

2. New York Giants (11-5) Top scoring offense but average defense is their demise.

3. Cleveland (9-7) Browns fan will rejoice: First winning season in franchise history.

4. Washington (8-8) Spoiler! Predicted 8-8 last season as well but went 12-4.

5. Philadelphia (4-12) Perhaps new owner can turn this franchise around.

5. Dallas (4-12) 2nd straight losing season for the Cowboys.

NFC Central

1. Green Bay (8-8) Super Bowl champ could struggle for playoff spot.

1. Detroit (8-8) Lions underachieved last year.

1. Baltimore (8-8) Colts severely underachieved last year.

4. Minnesota (6-10) Will miss the playoffs again.

4. San Francisco (6-10) 49ers severely OVERachieved last season.

6. Chicago (5-11) Owner Ziegert is used to winning seasons, this is uncharacteristic.

AFC East

1. Carolina (13-3) Contender for the 3rd season in a row. #2 offense, #4 defense

2. New York Jets (11-5) Jets fly again after one down season.

2. Boston (11-5) Patriots could miss playoffs at 11-5!

4. Miami (6-10) Dolphins not improving but not digressing either

5. Atlanta (5-11) Overachiever but difficult to make playoffs this season.

6. Buffalo (4-12) Hasn't had a winning season since 2007.

AFC Central
1. San Diego (13-3) Nordberg is best coach in USAFL: 80 wins (83%).

2. Oakland (12-4) Hello Raiders! Back from a short stint in mediocrity.

3. Denver (11-5) Mile High guys slide a bit, mainly on offense.

4. Houston (9-7) Won only 3 last year when expected to win 7.

5. Kansas City (5-11) Lianos needs to help Chiefs find inner Warrior.

6. Cincinnati (4-12) A down year for the Bengals after going 9-7.

Through Pick 22: PIT vs SD in SB!

2011-07-02T15:01:00.001-05:00

10 seasons, through pick 22.

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh(13-3)

2. New York Giants (11-5)

3. Cleveland (9-7)

4. Washington (8-8)

5. Philadelphia (5-11)

6. Dallas (3-13)

NFC Central

1. Green Bay (8-8)

1. Baltimore (8-8)

1. Detroit (8-8)

4. Chicago (7-9)

5. San Francisco (6-10)

5. Minnesota (6-10)

AFC East

1. Carolina (12-4)

2. New York Jets (10-6)

3. Boston (9-7)

4. Miami (7-9)

5. Buffalo (5-11)

6. Atlanta (4-12)

AFC Central

1. San Diego (13-3)

2. Oakland (12-4)

2. Denver (12-4)

4. Houston (9-7)

5. Cincinnati (5-11)

5. Kansas City (5-11)

Mid-Round 1 Prediction: PIT vs CAR in SB

2011-06-29T22:18:00.001-05:00

These are the results of an 8 season simulation after adding the first 13 picks of the draft onto their teams.

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh (13-3)

2. New York Giants (12-4)

3. Cleveland (8-8)

4. Washington (7-9)

5. Philadelphia (5-11)

6. Dallas (4-12)

NFC Central

1. Green Bay (10-6)

2. Baltimore (8-8)

3. Detroit (7-9)

4. Chicago (6-10)

5. Minnesota (5-11)

6. San Francisco (4-12)

AFC East

1. Carolina (13-3)

2. New York Jets (11-5)

3. Boston (11-5)

4. Miami (6-10)

5. Atlanta (5-11)

6. Buffalo (4-12)

AFC Central

1. San Diego (12-4)

2. Oakland (11-5)

3. Denver (11-5)

4. Houston (10-6)

5. Cincinnati (5-11)

6. Kansas City (3-13)

Pre-Draft Prediction: PIT vs OAK in SB

2011-05-01T17:40:00.001-05:00

Pre-Draft simulations match the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Oakland Raiders in USAFL SB V.

Both teams posted an average record of 13-3 over 10 simulated seasons. The Steelers had the top defense, the Raiders had the top offense.

Here's how the divisions broke down...

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh (13-3) #1 offense, #4 defense

2. New York Giants (11-5)

3. Cleveland (8-8)

4. Washington (8-8)

5. Dallas (5-11)

6. Philadelphia (4-12)

NFC Central

1. Detroit (10-6) #10 offense, #5 defense

2. Green Bay (9-7)

3. Baltimore (8-8)

4. San Francisco (7-9)

5. Minnesota (5-11)

6. Chicago (5-11)

AFC East

1. Carolina (12-4) #3 offense, #3 defense

2. Boston (10-6)

3. New York Jets (8-8)

4. Miami (7-9)

5. Atlanta (7-9)

6. Buffalo (3-13)

AFC Central

1. Oakland (13-3) #1 offense, #2 defense

2. San Diego (11-5)

3. Denver (10-6)

4. Houston (9-7)

5. Cincinnati (6-10)

6. Kansas City (4-12)

Conference Semi-Finals

2011-01-17T13:53:00.001-06:00

The Seeds

1. Green Bay (16-0)

2. Washington (12-4)

3. San Francisco (13-3)

4. Pittsburgh (12-4) Eliminated.

5. New York Giants (11-5)

1. Denver (14-2)

2. Carolina (14-2)

3. San Diego (13-3)

4. Atlanta (13-3)

5. Boston (11-5) Eliminated.

Wild Card Results

New York Giants (+2) defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 17-7

Atlanta Falcons (+7) defeated the Boston Patriots, 31-17

Conference Semi-Finals

#3 San Francisco +15 @ #2 Washington

#3 San Diego +6 @ #2 Carolina

#5 New York +2 @ #1 Green Bay

#4 Atlanta +21 @ #1 Denver

Playoffs Round 1

2011-01-05T13:24:00.001-06:00

Week 16 Accuracy: 67% (8 of 12)

Season Accuracy: 71% (137 of 192)

1. Green Bay (16-0)

2. Washington (12-4)

3. San Francisco (13-3)

4. Pittsburgh (12-4)

5. New York Giants (11-5)

1. Denver (14-2)

2. Carolina (14-2)

3. San Diego (13-3)

4. Atlanta (13-3)

5. Boston (11-5)

Playoffs: Wild Card and Round 2

#5 New York Giants +2 @ #4 Pittsburgh

The Giants swept division rival Pittsburgh during the regular season. Both games had tie scores for much of the 4th quarter. New York scored the go ahead touchdowns with 1:53 and 2:36 left in the games and the Steelers turned it over both times on their final drives.

#4 Atlanta +7 vs #5 Boston

Visiting team favored in this one. These division mates split their matches with Boston getting dominated in week 1, 30-13. In week 16, the Patriots won narrowly, 23-21.

#3 San Francisco +15 @ #2 Washington

The 49ers have rode Man Pass Blitz-1 Line-Inside and a ball control running offense to the playoffs. SF upset WAS in week 6, 23-21. SF's is missing 3 starters on their offensive line. But their offensive line wasn't that great to being with so it may not make a difference.

#3 San Diego +6 @ #2 Carolina

The Chargers lost in week 11 to the Panthers, 27-26 on the final play of the game - Romo to Celek for a 9 yard TD. Great game.

USAFL Week 16 Point Spreads

2010-12-24T23:35:00.002-06:00

Week 15 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 72% (129 out of 180)

Playoff Situation

1. Green Bay 15-0

2. Pittsburgh 12-3 or Washington 11-4

3. Pittsburgh 12-3 or Washington 11-4 or San Francisco 12-3

4. Pittsburgh 12-3 or Washington 11-4 or San Francisco 12-3

5. New York Giants 10-5

1. Denver 13-2 or Carolina 13-2 or Atlanta 13-2

2. Denver 13-2 or Carolina 13-2 or Atlanta 13-2

3. Denver 13-2 or Carolina 13-2 or Atlanta 13-2 or San Diego 12-3

4. San Diego 12-3 or Atlanta 13-2

5. Boston 10-5

Week 16 Point Spreads

+01 Buffalo (3-12) at Miami (5-10)
+03 Philadelphia (3-12) vs New York (N) (10-5)
+04 Chicago (4-11) vs Baltimore (3-12)
+05 San Francisco (12-3) vs Detroit (5-10)
+06 Cleveland (3-12) vs Dallas (5-10)
+06 Washington (11-4) vs Pittsburgh (12-3)
+11 Kansas City (1-14) at Cincinnati (8-7)
+15 Atlanta (13-2) at Boston (10-5)
+15 Oakland (7-8) vs Denver (13-2)
+15 Minnesota (7-8) vs Green Bay (15-0)
+16 Houston (3-12) vs San Diego (12-3)
+30 New York (A) (2-13) at Carolina (13-2)

USAFL Week 15 Point Spreads

2010-12-17T11:55:00.001-06:00

Week 14 Accuracy: 83% (10 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 73% (122 out of 168)

Playoff Situation

Green Bay 14-0, Pittsburgh 12-2, San Francisco 11-3 and Washington 10-4 are in.

New York (N) 9-5 is in with a win, Minnesota 7-7 is out with a loss.

The following assumes Denver defeats Kansas City is week 14.

Atlanta 12-2, Carolina 12-2, Denver 12-2 and San Diego 11-3 are in.

Boston 9-5 is in with a win, Cincinnati 8-6 needs to win out and Boston to lose out to be in.

Week 15 Point Spreads

+03 Dallas (4-10) vs Philadelphia (3-11)
+03 Cleveland (3-11) vs Washington (10-4)
+03 New York (N) (9-5) at Pittsburgh (12-2)
+04 Detroit (4-10) at Baltimore (3-11)
+06 Houston (2-12) at Oakland (7-7)
+08 Buffalo (3-11) vs Boston (9-5)
+15 San Francisco (11-3) at Minnesota (7-7)
+16 New York (A) (2-12) at Atlanta (12-2)
+17 Kansas City (1-12) vs San Diego (11-3)
+23 Miami (5-9) vs Carolina (12-2)
+24 Chicago (4-10) at Green Bay (14-0)
+25 Cincinnati (8-6) at Denver (11-2)

USAFL Week 14 Point Spreads

2010-12-10T11:22:00.001-06:00

Week 13 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 72% (112 out of 156)

Playoff Situation

Thirteen teams, ten slots.

Six slots already filled, leaving...

Seven teams, four slots.

Green Bay (13-0), Pittsburgh (11-2) and San Francisco (10-3) are in.

Washington (9-4), New York Giants (8-5) and Minnesota (7-6) are left.

Atlanta (11-2), Carolina (11-2) and Denver (11-2) are in.

San Diego (10-3), Boston (9-4), Cincinnati (7-6) and Oakland (7-6) are left.

Colossus Playoff Seeds (using weighted spreads):

1. Green Bay (16-0)

2. Pittsburgh (14-2)

3. San Francisco (12-4)

4. Washington (11-5)

5. New York Giants (10-6)

(Minnesota will finish 9-7, losing to Green Bay in week 16.)

1. Atlanta (14-2) (ATL defeated DEN, stronger schedule than CAR)

2. Denver (14-2) (DEN defeated CAR)

3. Carolina (14-2)

4. San Diego (13-3)

5. Boston (10-6)

(Cincinnati 9-7, Oakland 8-8)

Week 14 Point Spreads

+02 Houston (2-11) at Cincinnati (7-6)
+02 Chicago (4-9) vs San Francisco (10-3)
+03 Detroit (3-10) at Minnesota (7-6)
+04 New York (A) (2-11) at Miami (4-9)
+07 Buffalo (3-10) at Atlanta (11-2)
+08 Washington (9-4) at Philadelphia (3-10)
+10 Baltimore (3-10) vs Green Bay (13-0)
+12 Dallas (4-9) at New York (N) (8-5)
+13 Boston (9-4) vs Carolina (11-2)
+13 Oakland (7-6) vs San Diego (10-3)
+14 Cleveland (3-10) vs Pittsburgh (11-2)
+26 Kansas City (1-12) vs Denver (11-2)

USAFL Week 13 Point Spreads

2010-12-03T06:13:00.001-06:00

Week 12 Accuracy: 67% (8 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 71% (103 out of 144)

+01 Dallas (4-8) at Washington (8-4)
+02 Baltimore (2-10) vs Minnesota (7-5)
+04 Oakland (6-6) at Kansas City (1-11)
+07 Miami (4-8) at Atlanta (10-2)
+08 Philadelphia (3-9) at Pittsburgh (10-2)
+08 Chicago (3-9) at Detroit (3-9)
+12 New York (A) (2-10) vs Boston (8-4)
+12 Cincinnati (7-5) at San Diego (9-3)
+15 Cleveland (3-9) at New York (N) (7-5)
+17 San Francisco (10-2) vs Green Bay (12-0)
+20 Houston (2-10) vs Denver (10-2)
+23 Buffalo (3-9) at Carolina (10-2)

USAFL Week 12 Point Spreads

2010-11-24T11:24:00.001-06:00

Week 11 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 72% (95 out of 132)

+02 San Francisco (9-2) vs Baltimore (2-9)
+04 New York (A) (1-10) at Buffalo (3-8)
+07 Dallas (4-7) vs Pittsburgh (9-2)
+07 Washington (7-4) vs New York (N) (7-4)
+07 Oakland (6-5) at Cincinnati (6-5)
+10 San Diego (9-2) at Denver (9-2)
+11 Kansas City (1-10) at Houston (1-10)
+11 Chicago (3-8) vs Minnesota (6-5)
+17 Cleveland (2-9) at Philadelphia (3-8)
+19 Miami (4-7) at Boston (7-4)
+19 Detroit (3-8) at Green Bay (11-0)
+20 Atlanta (10-1) at Carolina (9-2)

USAFL Week 11 Point Spreads

2010-11-23T17:46:00.001-06:00

Week 10 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 72% (86 out of 120)

+02 Oakland (6-4) at Atlanta (9-1)
+03 Baltimore (2-8) at Philadelphia (2-8)
+03 San Diego (9-1) at Carolina (8-2)
+05 Detroit (3-7) at Washington (6-4)
+05 Buffalo (2-8) vs Houston (1-9)
+08 Minnesota (5-5) at New York (N) (7-3)
+11 San Francisco (8-2) at Dallas (4-6)
+16 New York (A) (1-9) vs Cincinnati (5-5)
+19 Kansas City (1-9) at Boston (6-4)
+20 Cleveland (2-8) vs Green Bay (10-0)
+21 Chicago (3-7) at Pittsburgh (8-2)
+26 Miami (4-6) vs Denver (8-2)

USAFL Week 10 Point Spreads

2010-11-23T17:41:00.000-06:00

Week 9 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 71% (77 out of 108)

+01 New York (N) (7-2) at Green Bay (9-0)
+02 Miami (3-6) at Houston (1-8)
+03 Cleveland (2-7) at San Francisco (7-2)
+04 Philadelphia (2-7) at Minnesota (4-5)
+05 Dallas (3-6) at Detroit (3-6)
+05 Chicago (3-6) vs Washington (5-4)
+09 Baltimore (2-7) vs Pittsburgh (7-2)
+09 Oakland (6-3) vs Boston (5-4)
+11 New York (A) (1-8) at Kansas City (0-9)
+15 Atlanta (8-1) at Denver (8-1)
+16 Cincinnati (5-4) vs Carolina (7-2)
+22 Buffalo (2-7) at San Diego (8-1)

USAFL Week 9 Point Spreads

2010-11-02T11:44:00.002-05:00

Week 8 Accuracy: 67% (8 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 71% (68 out of 96)

+01 Oakland (5-3) at New York (A) (1-7)

Odd. Colossus actually said EVEN spread but since I need to pick a winner I always go with home team. Hard to believe a one win team could beat the Raiders.

+01 Houston (1-7) at Atlanta (7-1)

Another odd one. Falcons suffered first loss last week, getting shutout at San Diego.

+02 Cleveland (2-6) vs Detroit (2-6)

Lions get back in the win column, Browns continue to suffer.

+03 Baltimore (2-6) at Washington (4-4)

Redskins started strong but have lost 3 in a row. Start a 3 game winning streak.

+05 Chicago (2-6) at Dallas (3-5)

Cowboys the un-Redskin. Started slow at 0-4, now boast two upsets in a row. They have a shot at a 9-10 win season. That's right. You read it here, suckas.

+05 Boston (5-3) vs Denver (7-1)

This is the last game the Broncos won't be double digit favorites. Chargers are HUGE Patriot fans this week.

+06 Buffalo (2-6) vs Cincinnati (4-4)

That Bengal defense is among the best in the league. 22 sacks. Only allowed a single rushing TD. Only team to defeat Denver.

+10 Philadelphia (2-6) vs Green Bay (8-0)

Green Bay upset Pittsburgh last week and, with Atlanta loss, is the only undefeated team left in the league.

+11 Minnesota (4-4) at Pittsburgh (6-2)

The Vikings' only chance is to get turnovers. They rank 2nd in interceptions (14), 4th in turnovers overall.

+15 Miami (3-5) vs San Diego (7-1)

Charger QB Philip Rivers and RB Fred Jackson have a great day at Miami.

+20 San Francisco (6-2) at New York (N) (7-1)

Colossus has ordered its host team New York to whup the team that has embarrassed it the entire season.

+26 Kansas City (0-8) at Carolina (6-2)

Panthers have top offense in the league. They will have no trouble scalping the Chiefs.

USAFL Week 8 Point Spreads

2010-10-26T11:43:00.001-05:00

Week 7 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12. Colossus system failure.)

Season Accuracy: 71% (60 out of 84)

+01 Buffalo (1-6) at Kansas City (0-7)

The Chiefs could get first win, but it will be a squeaker.

+03 Washington (4-3) at Minnesota (3-4)

Look for an upset here. Both teams have prolific passing attacks. The Redskins have an average pass defense. The Vikings are the very worst in passing yards allowed although they are #1 in interceptions, picking up 13 so far.

+05 Dallas (2-5) at Baltimore (2-5)

This should be a close one. Both QBs will have plenty of time to hit receivers.

+05 Cleveland (2-5) at Chicago (1-6)

Browns losing streak extends to 5.

+06 Green Bay (7-0) vs Pittsburgh (6-1)

Packers' potent offense vs Steelers' shutdown defense.

+09 San Francisco (5-2) vs Philadelphia (2-5)

That's right. Colossus picks the 2 win over the 5 win. Go Eagles!

+10 Houston (1-6) vs Boston (4-3)

Patriots stay in the playoff mix behind Atlanta and Carolina.

+14 Detroit (2-5) vs New York (N) (6-1)

Giants and Steelers neck and neck for their division at 6-1.

+15 Atlanta (7-0) at San Diego (6-1)

Chargers are not winning by predicted margins. This will be closer than 2 touchdowns.

+16 Miami (3-4) at Cincinnati (3-4)

Bengals bounce back from loss at Atlanta.

+22 Oakland (5-2) vs Carolina (5-2)

Panthers are unexpectedly behind the Falcons by 2 games in division.

+33 New York (A) (1-6) at Denver (6-1)
Poor Jets. They need a QB.

USAFL Week 7 Point Spreads

2010-10-18T12:57:00.002-05:00

Week 6 Accuracy: 92% (11 out of 12. Curse you San Fran!)

Season Accuracy: 74% (53 out of 72)

+01 Oakland (4-2) at Buffalo (1-5)

Very odd spread. But Colossus is 74%.

+02 New York (A) (0-6) vs Houston (1-5)

No so odd spread.

+02 Denver (5-1) at Carolina (5-1)

Game o' the Week. Bronco defense matches up well with Panther offense but going the other way, Carolina has a huge advantage.

+03 Detroit (2-4) at Philadelphia (1-5)

The Lions are schizophrenic, Colossus can't figure them out.

+04 Kansas City (0-6) at Miami (2-4)

The Chiefs might win 3 games, Dolphins 6.

+04 Atlanta (6-0) vs Cincinnati (3-3)

Hmm. Interesting. The Bengal defense matches up well with the strengths of the Atlanta offense. The Falcons have the edge when Cincinnati has the ball, can Carson Palmer & Co. pierce the arguably #1 pass defense the league.

+05 Washington (4-2) vs Green Bay (6-0)

The 49ers upset the Redskins last week, the Packers better watch out.

+06 Boston (4-2) vs San Diego (5-1)

Great game in Boston. Both are in bloody division races.

+07 Cleveland (2-4) vs Baltimore (1-5)

They'll be some passes thrown in this game, neither team has much of a running game.

+11 Dallas (1-5) vs Minnesota (3-3)

The Vikings have been upset twice but looks like they will win like their real counterparts did against Dallas Sunday.

+19 Chicago (1-5) at New York (N) (5-1)

Giants enter a streak of 3 easier games, the Bears have a shot at a couple of wins...after this game.

+23 San Francisco (5-1) at Pittsburgh (5-1)

The 49ers have smacked Colossus with back to back upsets as double digit underdogs. This week Colossus has its revenge: No way Pittsburgh goes down.

USAFL Week 6 Point Spreads

2010-10-09T19:04:00.004-05:00

Week 5 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 70% (42 out of 60)

Four huge upsets this week.

Carson Palmer threw 3 touchdown passes to lead the Cincinnati Bengals in a big upset over previously undefeated Denver Broncos, 28-7.

The New York Giants slipped by division leader Pittsburgh Steelers 23-13 thanks to a risky 4th down attempt late in the game that failed by Pittsburgh when they were in field goal range.

San Francisco stunned Minnesota in the final two minutes, winning 35-28. The Vikings were up by a point, moving the ball when QB Dree Brees checked down to backup RB Jeremi Johnson on a pass play on the 49ers 38 yard line. Johnson snags it at the 30 but Viking OLB Julian Peterson forces the ball out of his arms. DT Spencer Johnson spots the errant ball, picks it up and rumbles 70 yards for the winning touchdown with DBs bouncing off of him like peas thrown at a tank.

Dallas mounted a HUGE 4th quarter comeback against Philadelphia to win 38-34. However, the win is marred by the mockery of competition by the Eagles. Down 34-17 with 6 minutes left in the game, Cowboy QB Jason Campbell throws 3 TD passes. But the Eagles called goalline defense several times in the final minutes against the Cowboys who were obviously in a constant passing situation.

+01 Cincinnati (3-2) vs Boston (3-2)

Can the Patriots extend their 3 game win streak?

+06 Kansas City (0-5) vs Atlanta (5-0)

Rather close spread for teams with zeros in opposite columns.

+07 Baltimore (1-4) vs New York (N) (4-1)

Raven's defense allows too many points.

+10 Detroit (2-3) vs Pittsburgh (4-1)

Steelers bounce back after upset to New York Giants.

+12 Miami (2-3) at Oakland (3-2)

The Raiders are hanging in there in division race vs Denver and San Diego

+13 San Francisco (4-1) vs Washington (4-1)

What are the 49ers doing at 4-1? What is up with that?

+15 Chicago (1-4) vs Philadelphia (0-5)

Zzzzz.

+17 Dallas (1-4) at Green Bay (5-0)

The Packers are the best team in the USAFL right now.

+18 Cleveland (2-3) at Minnesota (2-3)

Midseason gets easier for the Browns after this. Hang on.

+21 Houston (1-4) vs Carolina (4-1)

Predicted score 27-6. Ouch.

+25 Buffalo (1-4) at Denver (4-1)

Like the Browns, the Bills have a shot at wins the next 3 games after.

+27 New York (A) (0-5) at San Diego (4-1)It hurts to see one of the best teams face one of the worst.

USAFL Week 5 Point Spreads

2010-09-30T10:37:00.001-05:00

Week 4 Accuracy: 83% (10 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 73% (35 out of 48)

+04 Detroit (1-3) vs Baltimore (1-3)

The Lions annoy Colossus. They don't win and lose when they are supposed to.

+06 Houston (1-3) vs Oakland (2-2)

Latest Colossus numbers show Houston as a 3-13 team instead of 7-9 as originally predicted. Need more research to see why. Trades?

+07 New York (A) (0-4) vs Atlanta (4-0)

The Falcons were not supposed to be this good. By a long shot.

+10 Dallas (0-4) at Philadelphia (0-4)

Don't give up Eagles fans, a win streak begins.

+11 New York (N) (3-1) vs Pittsburgh (4-0)

Steeler 'D' doesn't allow points and stuffs the run. Not good for the Giants.

+12 Cincinnati (2-2) vs Denver (4-0)

Bengals have better days ahead. Just not the day they play Denver.

+15 Cleveland (2-2) at Washington (3-1)

On fire Redskin QB Aaron Rodgers vs an excellent Brown pass defense.

+15 Chicago (1-3) vs Green Bay (4-0)

Speaking of QBs, Packer Donovan McNabb is #1: 9 tds, 121.5 rating.

+18 Buffalo (1-3) at Boston (2-2)

Patriots are a good team in a very tough division.

+18 Kansas City (0-4) at San Diego (3-1)

Chargers should have no trouble keeping pressure on division leader Denver.

+19 San Francisco (3-1) vs Minnesota (2-2)

Vikings should still make the playoffs in spite of disappointing start.

+23 Miami (2-2) at Carolina (3-1)
Poor Dolphins have a tough schedule.

USAFL Week 4 Point Spreads

2010-09-20T11:20:00.001-05:00

Week 3 Accuracy: 58% 7 out of 12 Colossus circuits overheat.

Season Accuracy: 69% 25 out of 36

+01 Pittsburgh (3-0) at Philadelphia (0-3)

Actually calculated as even but a winner must be selected and Colossus always defaults to the home team. Undefeated vs Non-win and it's even?

+01 San Diego (2-1) at Cincinnati (2-1)

Could Cincy pass up Chargers in division race?

+01 Atlanta (3-0) at Miami (2-1)

Falcons defeat Carolina in huge upset last week. Dolphins could be easy mark.

+01 Chicago (0-3) vs Detroit (1-2)

Jay Cutler and friends barely skin Bears.

+03 Baltimore (1-2) at Minnesota (1-2)

Ravens surprised by SanFran last week. Doesn't get easier.

+05 Washington (2-1) at Dallas (0-3)

Cowboys get first win.

+07 Cleveland (2-1) vs New York (N) (2-1)

Giants looked like pygmies against WAS last week.

+13 Buffalo (1-2) vs Carolina (2-1)

Whaaaat? Carolina got a loss? Poor Buffalo, Panthers feast.

+14 Kansas City (0-3) at Oakland (1-2)

Colossus expects Raiders to be 9-7, Chiefs 4-12.

+19 New York (A) (0-3) at Boston (1-2)

Two worst defenses in the league. I guess Jets are THE worst.

+19 Houston (1-2) at Denver (3-0)

After handily dispatching San Diego last week, Denver takes control of division.

+21 San Francisco (3-0) at Green Bay (3-0)
49ers are playing way too big for their britches. They have 2 upset scalps on their belt. The Packers will bring them down to earth with a loud thud.

USAFL Week 3 Point Spreads

2010-09-10T22:49:00.001-05:00

Week 2 Accuracy: 83%! 10 out of 12 Worship the Mighty Colossus!

Season Accuracy: 75% 18 out of 24

+01 Cincinnati (2-0) at Oakland (0-2)

The no-win Raiders favored over the undefeated Bengals?! That's the numbers.

+01 New York (A) (0-2) vs Buffalo (0-2)

This is a battle between contenders for worst in the division.

+01 Denver (2-0) at San Diego (2-0)

Game o' the Week! This game and the week 12 rematch could decide division winner.

+06 Miami (2-0) vs Boston (0-2)

Whaaaat? Another undefeated to lose to a loser?

+06 Kansas City (0-2) vs Houston (0-2)

Don't count the Chiefs out but at least someone gets first win.

+07 Dallas (0-2) at Pittsburgh (2-0)

Too bad the Cowboys decided to make it a rebuild year. They had some talent.

+07 Cleveland (1-1) vs Philadelphia (0-2)

The Eagles are supposed to be 10-6, the Browns 4-12. Why a close spread?

+08 Washington (1-1) at New York (N) (2-0)

The Redskins almost came back against Pittsburgh, then beat the Eagles in a mild upset. The Giants better watch out.

+09 Chicago (0-2) at Minnesota (0-2)

The Vikings should get on track to a decent season starting here.

+11 San Francisco (2-0) at Baltimore (1-1)

The mediocrity that is San Fran is exposed.

+13 Atlanta (2-0) vs Carolina (2-0)

Yawn. Panthers win again. And again. Hail the Champion.

+15 Detroit (1-1) vs Green Bay (2-0)

Lions picked off Brees 3 times last week in upset.

USAFL Week 2 Point Spreads

2010-09-02T17:20:00.001-05:00

Week 1 Accuracy: 66% (8 out of 12)

+02 Washington (0-1) vs Philadelphia (0-1)

The Redskins did better than expected against Pittsburgh last week. The Eagles will want to avoid being upset two weeks in a row.

+05 Dallas (0-1) vs New York (N) (1-0)

New York pulled off a mild upset of Philadelphia last week but Dallas hit an embarrassing 33-14 upset by Cleveland.

+06 Baltimore (1-0) at Green Bay (1-0)

A Raven upset would help change the division race dynamic since the Packers are expected to win the division going 13-3. Baltimore is predicted to be only 9-7.

+06 Detroit (0-1) vs Minnesota (0-1)

San Fran upset the Lions last week, the Vikings are a tougher opponent.

+06 Buffalo (0-1) vs Atlanta (1-0)

Atlanta crushed Boston in a dramatic upset last week while Buffalo kept it close with Miami forcing them to come from behind in the 4th quarter.

+07 Houston (0-1) vs Cincinnati (1-0)

The Bengals rocked out to start the season scoring 35 points, the Texans only scored 7 in their opener.

+11 Oakland (0-1) at San Diego (1-0)

Oakland is supposed to be a 9-7 team but the Chargers ain't going to be one of the 9.

+12 Chicago (0-1) at San Francisco (1-0)

The 49ers start out with an unexpected win. Should make it two in a row.

+12 New York (A) (0-1) vs Miami (1-0)

The Jets will be grounded for most of the season.

+13 Boston (0-1) at Carolina (1-0)

At least this week, the Patriots are expected to lose big.

+16 Cleveland (1-0) at Pittsburgh (1-0)

The Browns pull off two major upsets in a row! NOT.

+27 Kansas City (0-1) at Denver (1-0)

Ouch. Colossus is just insulting the Chiefs on this one.

USAFL Week 1 Point Spreads

2010-08-24T08:11:00.001-05:00

Week 1 Point Spreads

+03 New York (N) vs Philadelphia

A playoff spot could hang in the balance between these two - the season starts right off the bat with a critical game.

+04 San Francisco at Detroit

Neither of these teams are expected to make it beyond 4th in the division.

+08 Buffalo vs Miami

The Dolphins have a better shot at the playoffs than the Bills but they will have to pull off some upsets on the way.

+09 Atlanta vs Boston

The Falcons need an upset now, they are expected to finish up 4th behind Miami in the division.

+09 Oakland at Denver

Denver and San Diego are predicted to battle for the division title. Oakland may fight Cincinnati for a wild card playoff spot.

+10 Minnesota at Green Bay

Results already in for this one - Colossus picked it right on: GB 34, MIN 24.

+10 Kansas City vs Cincinnati

The Bengals can't blow it here because Oakland may be breathing down their neck most of the season.

+13 Cleveland at Dallas

Results already in for this one. Colossus missed big time. Cleveland pulls off a huge upset to start the season CLE 33, DAL 14

+13 Chicago at Baltimore

The Ravens will have an easier time this week than against the Packers next week.

+16 Washington at Pittsburgh

Steelers expected to take the NFC East, Redskins expected to miss the playoffs at 7-9.

+17 Houston at San Diego

The Chargers - Broncos slugfest for the AFC Central crown will be fun to watch.

+31 New York (A) vs Carolina

The Panthers begin their Championship march with a huge first week.

USAFL Pre-Season Predictions

2010-07-21T19:06:00.001-05:00

Carolina will defeat Green Bay by at least a touchdown for the 2010 USAFL Championship

NFC Playoffs

Wildcards: Minnesota at NY Giants

Semi-Finals: NY Giants at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia at Green Bay

Championship: Green Bay at Pittsburgh

AFC Playoffs

Wildcard: Cincinnati at Boston

Semi-Finals: Cincinnati at Carolina, San Diego at Denver

Championship: San Diego at Carolina

NFC East
Pittsburgh 12-4
Philadelphia 10-6
NY Giants 10-6
Dallas 8-8
Washington 7-9
Cleveland 4-12

NFC Central
Green Bay 13-3
Minnesota 10-6
Baltimore 9-7
San Francisco 5-11
Detroit 4-12
Chicago 3-13

AFC East
Carolina 15-1
Boston 10-6
Miami 7-9
Atlanta 6-10
Buffalo 4-12
NY Jets 3-13

AFC Central
Denver 12-4
San Diego 11-5
Cincinnati 9-7
Oakland 9-7
Houston 7-9
Kansas City 4-12

Carolina Undefeated in 2010?

2010-07-15T12:14:00.001-05:00

The latest DTC simulation results show a complete domination of the USAFL by the Carolina Panthers. Green Bay, who was showing promise in recent tests, fell to 3rd. The DTC scientists say the results changed because they added kickers and punters to all teams that did not have them (through round 9, pick 11).

NFC East

Pittsburgh 12-4

New York (N) 9-7

Philadelphia 9-7

Dallas 9-7

Washington 6-10

Cleveland 4-12

NFC Central

Green Bay 12-4

Minnesota 10-6

Baltimore 10-6

Detroit 6-10

Chicago 4-12

San Francisco 4-12

AFC East

Carolina 15-1

Boston 10-6

Miami 7-9

Atlanta 6-10

Buffalo 4-12

New York (A) 2-14

AFC Central

Denver 13-3

San Diego 12-4

Oakland 9-7

Cincinnati 9-7

Houston 5-11

Kansas City 4-12

Green Bay surpasses Carolina

2010-07-08T17:56:00.001-05:00

Results based on a 20 season simulation using picks through the 8th pick of round 4. The schedule was computer generated. An official schedule (hint, hint) would improve the accuracy of the simulation results.

There are two distinct tiers among the top 6 teams. Green Bay, Carolina and San Diego occupy the most elite tier and Denver, Pittsburgh and Boston make up the next tier.

For the first time, Green Bay edges out Carolina for the top team by a tiny 8 game margin (282 wins vs 275 wins) with San Diego close behind with 266 wins. Denver starts Tier II with 245 wins followed by Pittsburgh (233) and Boston (229).

NFC East

Pittsburgh 12-4

New York (N) 10-6

Philadelphia 10-6

Dallas 7-9

Washington 5-11

NFC Central

Green Bay 14-2

Minnesota 9-7

Baltimore 7-9

Detroit 7-9

Chicago 4-12

San Francisco 4-12

AFC East

Carolina 14-2

Boston 11-5

Miami 8-8

Atlanta 6-10

Buffalo 5-11

New York (A) 1-15

AFC Central

San Diego 13-3

Denver 12-4

Cincinnati 9-7

Oakland 8-8

Houston 7-9

Kansas City 4-12

Lastest Simulation Results

2010-06-29T21:33:00.000-05:00

These are the results of a 10 season simulation with the first 13 picks placed into their respective teams lineups.

NFC East

Pittsburgh 11-5

New York (N) 11-5

Philadelphia 9-7

Dallas 8-8

Washington 6-10

NFC Central

Green Bay 12-4

Minnesota 9-7

Baltimore 9-7

Detroit 7-9

San Francisco 3-13

Chicago 2-14

AFC East

Carolina 14-2

Boston 11-5

Atlanta 7-9

Miami 7-9

Buffalo 5-11

New York (A) 1-15

AFC Central

Denver 13-3

San Diego 13-3

Oakland 10-6

Cincinnati 8-8

Houston 6-10

Kansas City 5-11

Needs of Top Ten Picks

2010-05-15T13:49:00.001-05:00

1. Boston Patriots

The Patriots acquired the first overall pick from Baltimore. They are already in excellent shape with no starters rated less than a 6. But they could upgrade at tackle (Oher-8), OLB (Cushing-9), CB (Powers-7) or safety (Byrd-9).

2. Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia's most glaring needs are at WR and DE. They could use upgrades at guard and OLB along with a QB of the future to replace Favre next season. WR Percy Harvin (60 receptions) looks like the best bet.

3. Houston Texans

The Texans' need improvements on the lines on both sides of the ball, especially the defensive line. The best rating available at those positions will be sixes so the best choice may be to just take the best player available at any position.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

Cincy is already a much improved squad from the 4-12 team last year. Positions needing improvement are tackle and safety where 5 ratings have starting positions. S Louis Delmas (7) would work. Several 6 rated tackles are also available but that would be a reach. Another potential best player regardless of need pick is possible.

5. New York Giants

The Giants are midgets on the defensive line but the pool only has aging DT Kelly Gregg (7) that is rated higher than a 6. There's a weakness at safety (5) that Delmas would fill. An upgrade at WR would be good as well. Austin Collie (60 receptions) or Jeremy Maclin (55 catches) would help.

6. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo's offense requires major rebuilding starting with QB. Kerry Collins is not the future, Mark Sanchez or Matthew Stafford are.

7. Kansas City Chiefs

Major defensive needs on the Chiefs : DE, LB, CB. How about ILB James Laurinatis (7)? OLBs Clay Matthews and Brian Orakpo (8 ratings) could be available as well.

8. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders' trend is up, perhaps 10 wins this season. The defense is decent albeit with some weaknesses (DT, S) but the offensive line is terrible. And Darren McFadden's 3.4 average compounds the running game woes. Tom Brady throwing to Brandon Marshall (101 catches) and Miles Austin (81 catches) is nice but a running game is needed. Best value would be an RB like Beanie Wells (793 yds, 4.5 avg) or a pass catching one like LeSean McCoy (637 yds, 4.1 avg, 40 receptions). Otherwise, start fixing the offensive line with average guys since only sixes will be available.

9. San Francisco 49ers

SanFran is still a year or two away from escaping mediocrity. The defensive line and secondary are terrible. They have an additional pick in both the 2nd and 4th rounds. Draft defense and draft often. The question is whether they draft best overall in the first round or do they just start filling holes.

10. Cleveland Browns

The Browns have a decent amount of talent. I expect their simulation numbers not to be as dismal after the draft. They still own all their draft picks and must use the early ones to draft offensive tackles and a defensive line.

Latest Simulation: Green Bay Rises

2010-05-10T11:23:00.002-05:00

The Green Bay Packers narrowly passed the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 20 season simulation using the latest league files. The Packers won 231 games over 20 seasons, the Steelers 228. The next closest team in the NFC was Dallas with 202 victories. This puts Green Bay and Pittsburgh on a collision course for the NFC Championship.

The Carolina Panthers are still the dominant team in the league and will easily defeat all comers, from the first game to the Super Bowl. They won 293 games, 16% more than the next closest team, San Diego, who won 251 games.

So, at this point, although Pittsburgh's road to another Super Bowl loss is jeopardized by Green Bay, the Tri-peat of Carolina is in the bag.

There was no shuffling in the division orders except for Green Bay and Minnesota. Here's how they break down:

NFC East

Pittsburgh (11-5)

Dallas (10-6)

NY Giants (9-7)

Washington (8-8)

Philadelphia (8-8)

Cleveland (4-12)

NFC Center

Green Bay (12-4)

Minnesota (10-6)

Baltimore (8-8)

Detroit (7-9)

San Francisco (4-12)

Chicago (2-14)

AFC East

Carolina (15-1)

Boston (11-5)

Atlanta (8-8)

Miami (7-9)

Buffalo (5-11)

NY Jets (1-15)

AFC Central

San Diego (13-3)

Denver (12-4)

Cincinnati (10-6)

Oakland (10-6)

Houston (5-11)

Kansas City (3-13)

Prediction: Three in a Row for Carolina

2010-05-05T21:52:00.001-05:00

The Dallas Technology Center predicts that the Carolina Panthers will win Super Bowl VI over the Pittsburgh Steelers. While the Panthers will celebrate theire 3rd championship in a row, the Steelers will be forced to endure the embarrassment of losing their 4th Super Bowl...in a row.

That prediction is based upon 12 seasons of simulation using a schedule generated by the Action software. Of course, this is preliminary, based on pre-cut, pre-draft rosters and an unofficial schedule.

But it will be correct.

San Diego will be the only other obstacle in Carolina's championship season. The rest of us are destined to be roadkill. Following are the predictions overall which the DTC will not guarantee because of the variables.

But they will be close.

NFC East

Pittsburgh (13-3)

Dallas (11-5)

NY Giants (9-7)

Washington (8-8)

Cleveland (3-13)

NFC Central

Minnesota (11-5)

Green Bay (10-6)

Baltimore (6-7)

Detroit (6-10)

San Francisco (4-12)

Chicago (2-14)

AFC East

Carolina (15-1)

Boston (11-5)

Atlanta (9-7)

Miami (6-10)

Buffalo (4-12)

NY Jets (1-15)

AFC Central

San Diego (13-3)

Denver (11-5)

Cincinnati (9-7)

Oakland (8-8)

Houston (6-10)

Kansas City (3-13)

Donelson Back to Back

2010-03-30T23:47:00.001-05:00

Hang up the season already boys, Donelson is all but assured back to back championships. It is a done deal. Colossus recommends you plan for 2011 in your draft and trades.

Oh, you can make a go for it. But when you are crying in your Wheaties in late January 2011, don't complain to the mighty Colossus.

It has spoken. You have been warned.

OLB Brian Cushing is Expected 1st pick

2010-02-21T19:24:00.001-06:00

In a poll with low voter turnout, Pro Bowl OLB Brian Cushing was the near unanimous choice for the first overall pick in the 2010 TTFBA draft. OLB James Laurinaitis came in a distant second.

Next poll - early early pre-season prediction for the next TTFBA champ. Will Donelson repeat? Or will Super Bowl runner-up Fresno, who made it to the Super Bowl under David Pittner's first complete season as GM/Coach take it? What about Wausau? Greg Smith led the Bombers, a team that wasn't even expected to make a playoffs, to within 10 points of the Super Bowl. Will Tillman return to the Big Game after a year's hiatus? Denver and Dallas, both 11-5 teams in 2009 could make a run for it.

Or will it be a team that rises for the ashes like the Donelson Warriors who went from worst to first in a single season. 2-14 in 2008, 16-0 and the title in 2009. Ones to look at in this category are North Carolina, Death Valley, Mt. Pilot, NW Missouri and Nashville. Except for North Carolina, all of these teams graded well last season which means they overachieved due to excellent coach staffs. NW Missouri has appeared in a record 6 Super Bowls, winning twice. Expect them back.

North Carolina, one of the most successful franchises in TTFBA history, unashamedly tanked the season (hey, there are no rules against doing that) and received as F grade. Not even an 'E' for effort because there was no effort. They have missed the playoffs two seasons in a row now after making them for 8 straight. DVD, MTP and NAS all graded out well for the season.

Commish Poll Results

2010-02-14T20:27:00.001-06:00

New Commissioner Brandon Cox tied with Wausau owner Greg Smith in the poll for best potential commissioner for the TTFBA. Cox and Smith both garnered 7 votes. Greg English, Dallas Gladiator owner and publisher of the DTC Blog received 6 votes followed by NW Missouri head honcho Mike Rodriguez (4 votes) and Tony Donelson owner and coach of the TTFBA 2009 Champions, Donelson Warriors (3 votes).

Donelson Warriors : Road to the Championship

2010-02-11T00:17:00.007-06:00

This article covers the history of the Donelson Warriors since owner/coach Tony Cox took over the franchise in 2002. DTC gives a huge chest bump thank you to Chad Weyenberg for providing such an excellent website that assisted my research for this article. The TTFBA archives, especially the team histories page (click here to see it) saved me a lot of time. Also, thanks to Tony Cox. Some information from this article is from a March 2009 interview of Mr. Cox by Colossus the SuperComputer. Mr. Cox was a good sport with his reponses which helped me put together one of my more humorous pieces. Click here to see it.

Tony Cox, known as the "Old Man" to his son, Brandon, owner of the Nashville team, joined the league in 2002, our 3rd season, talking over the 3-2 Arizona Apaches in game 6. Commish Chad Weyenberg put this in the blast to the league on September 17th introducing Mr. Cox:

Tony Cox is a friend of Wausau's Greg Smith and is an avid football fan. Greg Smith comment's "Tony knows his football, he'll be a great addition to the league!"

Mr. Cox went 7-4 over the final games of the season, giving the Apaches a 10-6 record and the Barry Sanders division title. The Apaches advanced to the Simpson Conference championship game by crushing wild card Leon Lightning 35-13. Alas, the Apache playoff rampage was halted by the Rednecks of NW Missouri, 31-6

Cox renamed the team to the Donelson Warriors for the 2003 season and drafted DE Dwight Freeney and QB Marc Bulger, 10th and 17th overall. But the franchise would need much more help than those key players before being competitive. The Warriors would only win one game that year. They finished in the bottom 5 teams in almost every offensive and defensive statistical categories.

With the overall 1st pick in hand for the 2004 season, Cox put QB Byron Leftwich on his draft board and traded Bulger away for monster defensive lineman Richard Seymour. The Warriors were also the beneficaries of the legendary generous trading tactics of the Superior SkySnakes franchise and eventually amassed 4, count 'em 4, 2nd round draft picks. Three of the 4 were on defense (DB, DT and OLB) including DT DeWayne Robertson who would be traded for S Tank Williams in May. RB DeShaun Foster was the first pick in the 3rd round and he was traded to Muncie for, essentially, a 2nd round pick in the 2005 draft. From 2003 to 2004, the offensive line improved a few notches but the defense improved significantly, going from an overall rating of 62 to 77 - 23rd to 5th.

Donelson went 8-7-1 in 2004 and moved up to the middle of the pack offensively and defensively. The lack of a receiving corps for Leftwich and weakness against the run on defense were the main issues for the Warriors. Wins over Maryland, Mt. Pilot and division winner Kaukauna, 34-20 in week 12, provided ample evidence that Donelson was an up and coming franchise in the league. They lost to Mt. Pilot in round 1 to finish the season.

They returned to the playoffs for the next 3 seasons, posting 10-6, 12-4 and 12-4 records, winning the division title in 2006 and 2007. The Mt. Pilot Gamblers knocked them out of the playoffs in the first round again in 2005 but made it to the 2nd round before expiring in 2006 and 2007.

One of the keystones of the current Donelson team, QB Philip Rivers, was acquired from Transylvania in March 2006 for Leftwich. The Warriors were investing in Rivers, who had only thrown 22 passes the year before. Jake Plummer would be the starter for the 2006 season. The Evil Dead even added a 1st round pick with Rivers. They are currently in the Jason Campbell era over in Transylvania.

Another key player on offense, RB Steven Jackson (134 attempts, 673 yds in 2005) along with DT Kelly Gregg (7 rating) was obtained from Nashville in 2005 in return for OLB DJ Williams (7 rating) and DE Robaire Smith (6 rating). Gregg, Williams and Smith would not be on a Donelson/Nashville roster for the following season. However, Jackson has gone on to rush for an additional 6,034 yds and 37 touchdowns.

2008 was a bleak season for Donelson. The reception count dropped from 528 to 231. The base defense rating dropped from 81 to 69. They started out the season 2-1 but injuries blew up their season and they were unable to win another game, finishing 2-14

This draft, they reloaded targets for Rivers with WR Antonio Bryant (83 catches), WR Donnie Avery (53 catches) and TE John Carlson (55 catches) all in the first round. Interesting, Byron Leftwich rejoined the team in round 4. With the defense rating returned to its former glory (86!), tops in every rating category except for pass defense where they were 1 point behind Real Charleston. RB Derrick Ward and OLB Joey Porter (9 rating) was acquired from buddy Greg Smith in return for Steven Jackson, 7 rated LB Manny Lawson and 7 rated safety Chinedum Ndukwe.

This created a literally unstoppable team that averaged 36.3 pts a game, 9 more than the next team, SB runner-up Fresno and allowed only 12.4 pts a game. And as predicted on August 7, 2009 by Colossus - the Donelson Warriors won the 2010 TTFBA Super Bowl.

While researching the method for the construction of the Donelson Warrior championship team, I checked the draft and transaction records. Since I kept seeing Donelson-Nashville transactions, I decided to actually check out the statistics on them. Along with the Jackson trade mentioned earlier I also found: From 2006 to 2009, Nashville traded to Donelson 6 picks in the first three rounds: Three 1st round draft picks, one 2nd round draft picks and two 3rd round draft picks. Donelson traded to Nashville two 2nd round draft picks.

Here are the number of picks each team had in the first three rounds for the past 4 seasons:
2009: DON 6, NAS 3
2008: DON 1, NAS 0
2007: DON 1, NAS 5
2006: DON 5, NAS 0

There's something to be said about amassing draft picks but acquiring players for draft picks can be just as successful. Both teams went 30-18 over the pass 3 seasons.

2009 Grades

2010-01-28T14:57:00.003-06:00

Commish Retirement

2010-01-25T11:16:00.001-06:00

Our esteemed Commissioner is retiring after 10 seasons on the job. The DTC has posted a non-binding poll for seeing what owners/coaches we think would make good Commishioners. Please vote. More than one selection is allowed so pick all the guys you think would make good Commishioners for an ActionPC football league.

Super Bowl : Donelson Warriors vs Fresno Outlaws

2010-01-11T18:26:00.001-06:00

So, right off the bat:
Does Fresno even have a chance against Donelson? Answer: Yes.
Is it likely? Answer: No. Very unlikely, in fact. Here are the facts:

Fresno Offense vs Donelson Defense

The 12.4 points allowed by the Donelson defense puts them among the top 10 defenses of all time in the TTFBA. Their lineup is a Who's Who of defensive players. The basic 4-3 defense that the Warriors deploy 68% of the time is rated 1st overall, run, rush, interceptions and sacks. In pass defense points they are 2nd by only 1 point to Real Charleston.

The defense points overwhelm the blocking capability of the Outlaws. Fresno's blocking points are ranked 13th for the run and 19th protecting the QB. But QB Donovan McNabb is among the best QBs in the league and his INT and sack numbers are very low. WR Roddy White is his primary target (95 receptions, 11 TDs) followed by TE Owen Daniels (71 receptions, 6 TDs). RB Maurice Jones-Drew is the primary rusher with an unimpressive 3.9 average but an impressive 15 TDs, the top RB scorer in the league.

Fresno has the 2nd ranked scoring offense in the league behind only Donelson, scoring 27.4 points per game. They consume a lot of real estate, especially through the air so the clash between these teams when Fresno has the ball should be exciting.

Donelson Offense vs Fresno Defense

Fresno's primary platoon is 3-4 which they use 38% of the time. Half of the time they are in a Nickel, Dime or Quarter defense, as the offense scores so much that opposing offenses are constantly in catchup mode. The talent is average, the highest area of rating points in pass defense points where they rank 7th with 36. But they are aggressive and cause teams to turn the ball over - a total of 39 times, the best in the league.

But they are vulnerable on the ground. RB Derrick Ward leads the best running game in the league. QB Philip Rivers, the best QB in the league spreads the wealth among a receiving corps containing 4 WRs and 2 TEs that have starter reception counts. It's such a target rich environment that there is a Warrior WR is not among the top 25 in receptions. Antonio Bryant comes in 26th with 69 receptions.

On top of the best running game and the best passing game, they also have on of the best offensive lines in the league. The beef they have gives them 41 pass protection points, which is THE best in the league. They are 4th for run blocking.

However, if there is a weakness in Donelson, it is their propensity to turn the ball over which they did 20 times during the season. Philips is the main culprit, he threw 13 interceptions and fumbled 6 times. Ward only had one fumble. Backup RB Ricky Williams had 4 so maybe Tashard Choice would be the best guy to give Ward a breather.

Donelson only turned it over once during 2 post season games and that was against Wausau, who didn't blitz very much. Denver, their other post season opponent, came after Philips several times with no luck and no turnovers.

Final Analysis

Donelson by 13. Final score: DON 27, FRE 14

Colossus Predicts the BCS Championship Game

2010-01-07T18:08:00.001-06:00

In a simulation of 20 games, the Texas Longhorns won 14 (70%) of them.

Predicted score: Texas 34, Alabama 31

#1 Fresno Outlaws (+2) vs #2 Tillman Rangers

2010-01-06T15:46:00.001-06:00

The Outlaws lost at the Rangers in week 11, 27-10, when a close 10-6 Fresno lead collapsed in the 4th quarter. A fumbled punt attempt, a 50 yard TD pass and a 59 yard TD run in the fnal 8 minutes resulted in a score that does not reflect how close the game should've been. Maybe this week...

Fresno Offense vs Tillman Defense

Fresno is second only to the Donelson Warriors on offense but they rely on their passing game led by QB Donovan McNabb, WR Roddy White and TE Owen Daniels. Their ground game was ranked 18th in yards. This is an offense that plays to the strength of the Rangers' defense, who are among the best at shutting down opposing QBs. They are average against the run but it works because their offense is built on the run, eating up the clock, which forces opponents' offense to go to the air.

Dallas Gladiator RB Steve Slaton put up 118 yds against Tillman last week. The Gladiators aren't a big run team as well. If RB Maurice Jones-Drew can have a decent game perhaps Fresno can maintain their scoring power.

Tillman Offense vs Fresno Defense

This is not pretty at all. One of the best rushing offenses (RB Ronnie Brown, RB Chester Taylor) against one of the worst defenses against the run. But the Rangers don't have the greatest passing game (QB David Garrard) and the Outlaws aggressive style could result in turnovers. But they seemed to be blitzing when the Rangers were running which allows big chunks on the ground. Tillman is dangerous in 3WR sets with T.J. Houshmandsadeh, Dwayne Bowe and and Lance Moore. Tillman had no turnovers in the week 11 game and didn't cough up the ball much during the season. Can the Outlaws make something happen?

#2 Wausau Blue Bombers (+16) @ #1 Donelson Warriors

2010-01-03T19:36:00.001-06:00

Please leave a comment or send me an email if you read this. You can give a review if you want but I'm really just wanting an idea how many actually read this besides the competing teams (assuming they do. They DO, don't they???). Make it a one worder: "Read." "Sucked." "Awesome", I don't care. Just read it, baby, read it. Thanks, I'd appreciate that. These playoff ones take about an hour to do. I get into it but I don't have to get into it THAT much. Thanks. (Signed: the DTC Geeks of Predictology).

So, here we have the 2009 TTFBA Champions playing the upstart Blue Bombers. A team that we could've crowned weeks ago against a team that just refused to go away the entire season. Unfortunately, that courageous run is coming to an end with this game.

Wausau (10-6) advanced to this game with an upset of New England, 30-18. Brett Favre and the coaching staff were all kissy-kissy because he happily allowed RB Steven Jackson to carry the ball 28 times, only the second time this season Jackson had that many touches. His average was not spectacular (3.5) and he didn't score but he was enough of a distraction (99 yds, 4 first downs) that he factored into New England's defensive game plan with constant keying. Favre's trust in the defensive coordinator paid off because he had his most efficient outing for the season going 14 for 18, 198 yds, 0 interceptions and 2 TD passes, both of them to Larry Fitzgerald on short slants of 26 and 41 yds while New England keyed on Jackson.

Donelson (16-0) made it here with a pick fest over Denver's Chad Pennington (8 of 19, 83 yds, 3 ints, 1 td, 30.6 qb rating). All 3 interceptions led to Warrior touchdowns, making up 21 of the 37 points in the 37-7 drubbing. The Dynamite did not go down with some fireworks though. Down 13-zip with 3:23 left in the 1st quarter, they marched down to their only score basically on RB Adrian Peterson's back (22 carries, 52 yds, 2.4 avg, no touchdowns) on a 19 play drive featuring 3, count 'em 3 successful 4th down attempts. 13 of Peterson's carries for the game came on this drive. Pennington connected with TE Tony Gonzalez for the TD closing the game to 13-7 midway through the 2nd quarter. But by the end of the half, Donelson had pulled away 27-7 thanks to a pair of painfully pathetic Pennington passes. (Thank you, thank you - I hear the groans.)

Donelson Offense vs Wausau Defense

I've put off as long as I can. Like I said in the Denver-Donelson pre-game write-up, the Warriors are the best offensive team in the league. You don't stop them. They average 36.3 points per game. Look at those scores during the season, no one has kept them below...wait, wait a second. Trivia question: What team was the only one to keep Donelson under 21 points this season.

Answer: The Wausau Blue Bombers. What on earth? The 20-13 Wausau loss in week 10 was the closest game Donelson had the entire season. How do 23 point underdogs only lose by 7? Are these guys buds or something? Did Donelson take it easy on the Blue Bombers, loading up the ack-ack with squaw feathers instead of sending the Warriors of the tribe to take care of business? It doesn't look like it.

Donelson, perhaps noting Wausau's studly run defense (2nd in the league, allowing only 75.6 yds per game) choose to make it an air game, relying on QB Philip Rivers to have the honors. Less than 2 minutes in - Donelson is up 7 zip. But the defense hangs in there. The only TD scored by the offense was that first drive. The other TD was from a 98 yard kick return in the 4th quarter.

A lot of the credit must go to the Blue Bomber offense, who helped the defense by keeping the ball as long as possible (39 minutes). Still, the Warrior offense averages 3.8 touchdowns per game, holding them to just one is quite a feat.

The pass defense just isn't there. If Donelson gets enough drives, the bows and arrows of the Warriors are going to bring down Bombers.

Wausau Offense vs Donelson Defense

Ugh. Once again, a stat comparison jumped out at me checking out when Wausau has the ball. This is one of the very worst red zone scoring teams going up against one of the very best red zone defenses. Larry Fitzgerald will take it home from anywhere on the field. You better not be mesmerized by 3.5 yarder Stephen Jackson and let Fitzgerald rip you up. But one has no idea when that's going to happen.

But the Donelson defense suppresses run and passes equally awesomely (awkwardly presentedly I know). They only allowed 12.4 points per game. Wausau, nor any other team are going anywhere against this defense. It's surprising 4 teams scored more than 21 points on them.

I just don't see how Jackson gets another 100 yds against the Warrior defense. In the week 10 game, run stuffer DL Richard Seymour (8 rating) was out along with starting CB Rashean Mathis (8 rating). The simulations show a score of 30-14. I don't know how Wausau scores two field goals, must less two touchdowns.

Wausau Blue Bombers (+2) vs New England Generals

2009-12-30T23:21:00.001-06:00

The home team Harris division winner Wausau (10-6) are 2 point underdogs against New England (9-7), the Tony Dorsett division champ. Before I chew on the strengths and weaknesses of these teams, the DTC would like to congratulate Wausau on an excellent season. They just missed the cut of making the playoffs in the Center's pre-season simulations. Yet here they are. Colossus is not pleased. And we like that.

Now on to the nitpicking...

New England Offense vs Wausau Defense

The Generals only averaged 20.2 pts per game during the season which is surprising when you look at the personnel involved. QB Jay Cutler (3162 yds, 62.7%, 17 tds). WRs Reggie Wayne (80 recs) and Braylon Edwards (73 recs). The running duties are shared between RB Pierre "Who?" Thomas (762 yds, 4.4 avg, 4 tds) and RB Maurice "Who?" Morris (731 yds, 4.2 avg, 5 tds) behind a very good offensive line. There's some defense in their division, mainly NW Missouri but, on average, nothing extraordinary. I checked their defensive coaching accuracy - no glaring weaknesses there.

I should've checked their schedule first - losses to Tillman, Real Charleston, Steeltown, Hermitage, NW Missouri. Yes, NW Missouri. Say what you want about their showing this season, they still had one of the best defenses.

The "Who?" duo are the strength of the General offense which ranked 4th in rushing, 125.1 yds per game although ranking only 10th in TDs on the ground is odd. The passing game is, putting it generously, average. The only pass stats they make the top 10 in are yards per completion (9th at 11 per) and pass completion percentage (ranked 9th at 63%). But, heh, if you rely on your ground game, maybe you don't need to pass that much. It's just important, that when you do, you make it count. If the Generals get in your red zone - fogetuhboutit 88.4% scoring (3rd) and booyah! a 53.5% Red Zone TD scoring %, ranked 7th.

But, oh, what have we on the other side with the Wausau defense? What's that stat? 2nd ranked against the run, allowing only 75.6 yds per game? Hmmm? DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and DT Shaun Rogers eat unsuspecting RBs that come their way. OLB LaMarr Woodley finishes any remnants that may remain if they get by those grinders. The defense is much more lenient against the pass but, overall, they don't like people scoring (5th in the league) only giving up 17.9 points per game.

So, we have strength (run) going into strength (run). But If New England can crank up that passing game ala that 4 TD party against SoCal in week 13, the Blue Bombers will be blown out of the sky.

Wausau Offense vs New England Defense

The Blue Bombers have a solid, if not spectacular offense headed up by QB Brett "The Immortal" Favre (3503 yds, 66.1%, 23 tds, 18 ints, 18 sks, 86.8 rating) in his prior incarnation. Mr. Favre has a high TD% (4.6%, ranked 5th) but also a high pass INT% (3.6%, ranked 20th). Yeah, remember THAT Brett Favre? The one who liked to just heave it up there, sometimes making Packer and Jet fans cringe as it made a parabola right into the hands of an opposing DB without a wide receiver in a 20 yard radius?

Favre tosses it to WR Larry Fitzgerald (108 recs, 8 tds) when he's not tossing it to opposing DBs. Unfortunately, that's about the only WR of consequence on Wausau's roster. *Cough* Double team *Cough*.

Sorry. A little cold there. RB Steven "Ugh the Rams" Jackson (1068 yds, 3.5 avg, 5 tds) handes the running attack. Well, not attack, more like "suggestion". A 3.5 yard average really couldn't be called an attack, could it? One of the worst in the league. They boast that and one of the worst rushing TD% in the league as well.

The do score, averaging 20.5 pts per game (9th rank) but it looks like they do it from long range because their Red Zone scoring and TD% is terrible. It would be the bottom if the "Death" in Death Valley didn't refer to their own Defense.

New England keeps opponents 3 points less than that, ranked 4th in the league. They have an aversion to allowing running backs much, ranking in the top 5 in all rushing categories. What a D-line: DE Justin Tuck (10 sks, 27 hurries), DT Vince Wilfork (2 sks, 6 hurries), DE Mathias Kiwanuka (8 sks, 17 hurries, 4 forced fumbles) that take down QBs with the same success they stop RBs in their tracks. 36 sacks overall.

Wausau's offensive line can't keep Favre from an passing during an A.D.D. but they do keep him upright to do it. The Blue Bomber offensive line smashing against the General defensive line will be a sight to behold. And speaking of errant passes (I've mentioned Favre is prone to the occassional INT, haven't I?), General CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (4 ints, 1 for a td) will be on hand to accept any of Brett's gifts that give coaches ulcers

New England is vulnerable through the air. If Favre can stay focused, not get bored, not argue with his coach, not call an audible every time coach sends in a Jackson run, not throw to Rodgers-Cromartie, CB Carlos Rogers, S Donte Whitner, nickel and dime and quarter platoon backs, the sideline judge, a Wausau cheerleader or that fat guy whose face is painted in Blue Bomber colors - then Wausau will pull an upset.

#4 Montcalm Panthers (+4) @ #1 Fresno Outlaws

2009-12-29T13:12:00.001-06:00

Fresno (13-3) did not play Montcalm (10-6) during the regular season.

Fresno Offense vs Montcalm Defense

A very potent Fresno offensive passing machine led by QB Donovan McNabb (28 tds, 94.3 rating) will give the Panther secondary major problems. CB Ike Taylor has a lot of tackles and not many deflections which provide an indication that he may not be adequate to keep WR Roddy White (95 recs, 11 tds) under control.

But the Outlaw offensive line is not very good, especially in the ground game where RB Maurice Jones-Drew, the lead rusher, only average 3.9 yards per carry. He did punch it in the end zone 15 times however. Montcalm is very good against the run, they have the advantage in this matchup. But Jones-Drew's pass catching ability provides another headache in the air.

The key could be DE Alex Brown who had a dime of sacks and 20 hurries during the season. The Fresno line will have their hands full. ILB Bradie James could be a factor as well but he must be utilized more as a blitzer than he was during the season (only 3 sacks compared to 8 during the real NFL season).

In spite of Montcalm's weakness on D, they haven't allowed opponents many points (18.4 per game). They give up yards (12th ranked) but not points (6th ranked). This is one of the more interesting matchups in the playoffs.

Montcalm Offense vs Fresno Defense

The comparison that jumped out when Montcalm has the ball is on turnovers. Fresno is tops in the league at stealing the ball from opponents, especially on fumble recoveries (36) but also on interceptions (17, ranked 7th). But QB Drew Brees & Co. was not likely to turn the ball over during the season. Is Fresno's success based on making things happen like that? That could be what determines who goes to the next round.

The Panther offense revolves around Brees (28 tds, 68.3%, 97.3 rating) and WR Wes Welker (128 recs, 10 tds). RB Matt Forte (1133 yds, 3.6 yds, 11 tds) handles the ground game with an assist from RB Willie Parker (585 yds, 4.5, tds). The Montcalm offensive line is very, very good which makes Forte's 3.6 average a curious stat.

This o-line talent is required if they want to keep monster DE Trent Cole (10 sks, 34 hurries, 10 stuffs, 7 deflections, 5 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries) from creating havoc. CBs Antoine Winfield (3 ints) and CB Quentin Jammer (2 ints) lead the secondary who are frequently left without much help because of Fresno's sack freaky defensive coordinator.

The aggressive defensive style of Fresno got them to 13-3 but they gave up city blocks of yardage, among the worst in the league. The talented offensive line of Montcalm will be a primary component of an upset. The Outlaws 3 losses were against teams that have good offensive lines. The opposing QBs in these games threw for an average of 318 yds, 3 tds and a 112 QB rating.

#4 Denver Dynamite (+14) @ #1 Donelson Warriors

2009-12-28T13:57:00.001-06:00

This year's Super Bowl champ Donelson defeated division disputant Denver twice en route to an undefeated season by an average of 35 to 18. This playoff game will make a trifecta.

Denver Offense vs Donelson Defense

The Warrior defense ranked #1 in preventing opponents from scoring, onlying an average of only 12.4 points pre game. Denver has a prolific offense, ranked 4th, scoring 23.7 points per game on average. QB Chad Pennington , WR Randy Moss and RB Adrian Peterson form their own trifecta of domination. TE Tony Gonzalez (103 receptions, 7 tds) provides some matchup problems for most defenses.

The Dynamite are ranked near the bottom in number of pass attempts (20th, only 448 attempts) but they make the most of them ranking high in pass rating (4th with 95.5), completion percentage (7th at 65.4%) and passing TD percentage (4.2%, ranked 7th). The #2 rusher in the league (1425 yds, 4.3 avg, Peterson carries the load 9 tds) carries the load, opening up the passing game.

But the Donelson defense is the most talented in the league. The starting lineup only contains only player rated less than 7, Greg Ellis, rated a lowly 6. The 2009 TTFBA Champion Warriors have done well mining the free agent list and the rosters of relations during the offseason and built one of the most formidable defenses in league history. DE Dwight Freeney (9 sacks, 21 hurries), OLB Joey Porter (9 sacks, 3 hurries) and CB Charles Woodson (8 deflections, 4 interceptions) make up the 9 rated starters.

Denver's assigned homework is to study games where opponents were able to put some points up. Transylvania in week 9, for instance. The Warriors were actually losing going into the 4th quarter only to score 23 unanswered points to win 40-29.

Donelson Offense vs Denver Defense

Sadly, even if a team can score on Donelson, Donelson will score at will against them, average 36 points a game - tops in the league. The Team Charts report in Action has 30 categories on offense, the Warriors rank #1 in 16 of them. They are in the top 5 in 22 of them. RB Derrick Ward's 6.1 average (1144 yds, 8 tds) abuses teams on the ground, and QB Phillip Rivers tosses to WRs Antonio Bryant and Laveranues Coles. The Warriors have 3 of top 4 players in average yards per reception. Yeah. The Dynamite may be able to blow up some teams on the run (ranked 5th, allowing 78.6 yds per game) but are average against the pass. They allowed 20 touchdowns through the air during the season, ranked 15th.

Denver gave up 283 yds a game against Rivers, although he only tossed 2 touchdowns. The week 1 loss (29-10) is interesting because, the offense only scored a single touchdown and it was on the ground. One touchdown was a fumble recovery and the rest of the points were 5 Jason Hanson field goals. But the week 14 loss (41-27), they allowed Ward 105 yards and 3 touchdowns.

OLB James Harrison (7 sks, 10 hurries and 1 int for a TD) and DE Aaron Kampman (10 sks, 13 hurries) are the key defensive players but there just aren't enough of their caliber to avoid being overwhelmed by the Warrior offense. If the Denver offense can move the ball against Donelson and the defense can hang in there like they did in week 1, maybe, just maybe we could see an upset.

But don't count on it. A 14 point spread in Action is almost impossible to overcome because team talent trumps superior coaching. These are two excellent coaches so that makes it a wash anyway. Donelson 31, Denver 17.

#3 Dallas Gladiators (+3) @ #2 Tillman Rangers

2009-12-27T21:09:00.003-06:00

Dallas (11-5) did not play Tillman (12-4) during the regular season.

Dallas Offense vs Tillman Defense

The Gladiators #8 scoring offense will have problems against the #2 scoring defense of the Rangers. Dallas' running game led by Steve Slaton (975 yds, 4.5 avg, 3 tds) is ranked 12th in yards per game (102.3) and 4th in average (4.3). On paper this looks like a good match against Tillman's #12 rank against the run and running average (3.9). But, when you look at the personnel, Tillman has one of the best defenses against the run in the league. That #12th rank may be because opponents try to use a ground game because their pass defense (1st in completion percentage (55.3%), 4th in interceptions with 18, 5th in passing yards and on and on) is so tough. For just a taste, look at their complete annihilation of Montcalm Panther QB Drew Brees. As a division opponent, Mr. Brees got to face the Ranger slapdown twice. Here's his stats: 24 of 56 (43%), 2 sacks, 5 interceptions, 1 pass for 25 yard or more, 1 touchdown for a QB rating of 29.4.

Yeah, Rodgers will have his hands full. He spreads it around very evenly to WRs Steve Smith, Santonio Holmes and Anthony Gonzalez. Tillman's depth at safety provides some very nice nickel and dime coverage numbers. Rodgers will be pressured by DE Adewale Ogunleye who leads the team with 10 sacks and will have to watch out for CB Ellis Hobbs is the leader in picks with 4.

Tillman Offense vs Dallas Defense
The Gladiators are no slouch in the pass defense department either. They are in the top 5 of most pass defense categories except, curiously, interceptions where they are average. Still, the starting DBs have 10 picks and 2 tds among them, lead by CB Ronde Barber with half of them. Karlos Dansby heads up the LB corps (6 sks) and DE Darryl Tapp is outperforming higher rated DE Darnell Dockett on the line.

The Rangers are lead by QB David Garrard (260 of 410, 63.4%, 17 tds, 11 ints, 87.6 rating). He would be worse if he didn't have such standout WRs to pass to like T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Dwayne Bowe and one year wonder Lance Moore. But Tillman's offense has rarely relied on a standout QB. Instead, using the same offensive formula that has netted them 3 consective division titles and last year's championship, they deploy a stable of RBs behind a massive offensive line and pound opponents to death on the ground. RBs Ronnie Brown (899 yds, 4.3 avg, 6 tds) and Chester Taylor (360 yds, 3.2 avg, 2 tds) lead the stampede with Selvin Young getting a few carries (36) to blow things up (6.7 yard average) and even Garrard getting in the act by taking off when a pass play isn't working and scampering for an average of 5 yards. They've combined for 116 yds/game (#6) and 15 touchdowns (#5).

This does not make for a pretty situation for Dallas. They are the skim on the sludge at the bottom of the barrel in run defense, ranking 20th in yards per game, 19th in rushing average (4.1) and 14th in rushing TDs allowed (12).

#5 Montcalm Panthers (+1) @ #4 Real Charleston Galacticos

2009-12-17T20:34:00.001-06:00

The Galacticos beat Montcalm in week 10, 28-14. The Panthers made it 20-14 with 6:26 left but Real Charleston put it away with 2:00 left with a 13 screen pass from QB Kurt Warner to 2nd string WR Malcom Floyd.

Montcalm Offense vs Real Charleston Defense

The Panthers offense boasts the talent of QB Dree Brees, WR Wes Welker and RBs Matt Forte and Willie Parker fronted by an excellent offensive line. Brees tossed 27 scoring passes, 10 of them to Welker. Forte punched in 9 touchdowns on the ground. No wonder this squad ranked 4th in scoring, averaging 24.5 points a game. When these guys get in the red zone, they score more often (61.7%) than any other team in the TTFBA. Brees is rarely sacked, throws few picks and completes 70% of his passes. The flaws are nitpicky - a low rushing average (3.7) and a low yards per completion 10.3.

But Real Charleston can shut down the pass, among the tops in the league, and they aren't too shabby in stopping the run either. They like to pick (20), sack (37) and keep offenses out of the endzone (16.6 points per game, 3rd in the league). DT Marcus Stroud and DE Robert Mathis on the line, Jon Beason back at LB and CB Cortland Finnegan on the top receiver.

Real Charleston Offense vs Montcalm Defense

The Panther offense against the Galacticos defense was a great matchup but on this side, Real Charleston has the edge. QB Kurt Warner could pick apart a defense that is among the worst in the league against the pass. The average QB rating of opposing QBs against Montcalm : 91.7. Very bad. They are much better against the run which is not a strength of Real Charleston. Chris Johnson (1088 yds, 4.1 avg, 7 tds) leads the attack but it is the 15th ranked rushing offense against the 7th. Basically, the Galacticos should use Johnson to keep Montcalm from going all pass defense but just keep calling Warner to WR Greg Jennings and Warner to WR Muhson Muhammad.

#5 Hermitage Heroes (+5) @ #4 Denver Dynamite

2009-12-17T19:44:00.002-06:00

These Sanders division rivals split their games during the season. Denver was the underdog in both games and lost in week 5 at home 27-15 and upset Hermitage in week 16, 32-28. It's interesting that Colossus had Denver the underdog at home during the regular season but now reports them as the favorite in the post season. I'm not sure why, they should be similiar.

Hermitage Offense vs Denver Defense

The Heroes have a very prolific offense (#3 in points) led by QB Jake Delhomme whose computer QB rating is 10 points better than his real (95.6 vs 84.7) by throwing twice as many touchdown passes (32 vs 15) thanks to WR Andre Johnson (110 receptions, 12 TDs) and WR Steve Smith (of Carolina, 80 receptions, 9 touchdowns) being on the team. RB LaDainian Tomlinson (1467 yds, 8 touchdowns) gets a boost in his average from 3.8 to 5.0 thanks to an offensive line feature G Steve Hutchinson and C Kevin Mawae.

But Denver is excellent at controlling a running game, allowing 78.2 yds per game (4th in the league). Tomlinson averaged 84 yds on them. DE Aaron Smith, DE Aaron Kampman and LB James Harrison know how to plug the run. They can also plant QBs as well, which is good, because their secondary is average, allowing over 200 yards per game in the air. That matchup between the San Diego offensive line and Denver defensive line is one to watch.

Denver Offense vs Hermitage Defense

The Dynamite offense can put some points up as well (#6), averaging 23 points a game. WR Randy Moss and TE Anthony Gonzalez are QB Chad Pennington's primary targets, each snagging 7 touchdowns. RB Adrian Peterson rounds out the Power Quad with 1425 yds, a 4.3 average and 9 touchdowns. On paper, the Hero defense does not look adequate to handle these guys. They were 16th against the run and 19th against the pass. In week 16, the Dynamite lit up in the second half, especially the 4th quarter, and came back. But in week 5, they were held to just 3 field goals in the first half and 15 overall at HOME. Both teams would be wise to review both of those games when developing the game plan for this one.

#6 San Diego Lions (+11) @ #3 Dallas Gladiators

2009-12-17T15:39:00.001-06:00

These Taylor division mates split their games during the regular season; Dallas won at home 35-7 in week 5 and San Diego won at home 20-14 in the final week.

Dallas Offense vs San Diego Defense

The Gladiators have an above average offense, among the top 10 in most categories. QB Aaron Rodgers throws plenty of touchdown passes (23) but shares the wealth with opposing defensive backs (16 interceptions). RB Steve Slaton handles most of the ground game. Dallas leans toward pass a bit more but Slaton has a good average (4.5) and keeps opposing defenses honest. San Diego has a very good pass defense (5th in yards allowed) but a bad run defense (#17 in yards allowed, #19 in rushing TDs). Their success against the pass is because of the pressure they can put on QBs with DT Jay Ratliff (8 sacks), DE Julius Peppers (13 sacks) and OLB Calvin Pace (8 sacks).

San Diego Offense vs Dallas Defense

Dallas has the advantage here. They are capable of throttling a Lion offense who was last in the league in rushing yards. San Diego uses the cadre of RBs "led" by Corey Buckhalter's 102 carries, 3.4 avg, 1 td and RB Deuce McAllister's 99 carries, 2.1 avg and 4 tds. QB Peyton Manning would be a bigger threat except that he has no other targets with more than 34 receptions except for Donald Driver (87 for the year). That 13th ranked passing attack will have problems against the 4th ranked defense in passing yards. The Gladiators don't have much significant talent on defense except for safeties Adrian Wilson and Brian Dawkins.

There's no reason why San Diego can't recreate the week 16 defeat of Dallas where the defense directly scored 14 points on fumble recoveries and setup another 3. The other field goal was set up by a pass interference penalty against Dallas. Dallas outgained San Diego 334 yds to 160 but with a defense like that, it doesn't matter. If the Gladiators can limit turnovers, the game is theirs.

#6 San Pedro Bulldogs (+2) @ #3 New England Generals

2009-12-16T14:12:00.001-06:00

San Pedro Offense vs New England Defense

Bulldog QB Matt Cassel was among the top QBs in the league in attempts and completions (374 of 550 (68%), 3740 yds) but didn't score much (15 touchdowns, ranked 15th in the league). But he should do well against a New England defense ranked 17th in passing yards allowed and passing TDs allowed. But the Generals' are sack masters with 35 for the season, ranked 2nd in the league.

But New England is very tough against the run, ranked 1st, allowing 69.4 yds average per game and only 6 TDs. If the run-suffing line, featuring Justin Tuck and Vince Wolfork, can shut down RB DeAngelo Williams then San Pedro goes one dimensional. Cassel may complete some but he will slammed to the turf several times because their o-line was one of the worst in the league in allowing sacks (37).

New England Offense vs San Pedro Defense

This is an interesting matchup, the #2 rushing offense against the #3 rushing defense. In the air, it's an average New England passing attack led by QB Jay Cutler (287 of 458, 62.7%, 3162 yds, 17 TDs, 18 Ints) vs an average San Pedro pass defense led by S Nick Collins. So, it's the Generals' rushing by a committee of 4 vs the Bulldog Wall with LB Kirk Morrison and DT Mike Patterson. But DT Casey Hampton is injured, that could provide some opportunities on the ground.

2009 Playoffs Rnd 1 Point Spreads

2009-12-14T10:29:00.001-06:00

Week 16 Accuracy: 7 out of 12 (58%)

Season Accuracy: 129 out of 192 (67%)

Please check back later for more in depth converage of these games.

Payton Conference

San Pedro Bulldogs (+2) @ New England Generals

Hermitage Heroes (+5) @ Denver Dynamite

Simpson Conference

Montcalm Panthers (+1) vs Real Charleston Galacticos

San Diego Lions (+11) @ Dallas Gladiators

Payton Conference Clearer

2009-12-13T08:05:00.001-06:00

1. Donelson (16-0)
2. Wausau (10-6)
3. Winner of Denver (10-5) - Hermitage (9-6)
4. Loser of Denver - Hermitage.
5. New England (9-7)
6. Sam Pedro Bulldogs.

Hermitage has tie-breaker over New England by defeating them in week 9.

Simpson Getting Clearer

2009-12-12T00:27:00.001-06:00

1. Fresno (13-3)
2. Tillman (12-4)
3. Dallas (11-5)
4 or 5. Montcalm (10-6)
4 or 5. Real Charleston (9-6)
6. San Diego (8-8)

Simpson Playoff Correction

2009-12-11T00:13:00.001-06:00

There was an error in the tie-breaker stated in the last post regarding San Diego and Steeltown. Both San Diego and Steeltown won in week 16 giving them 8-8 records. The prior post stated that Steeltown would win the tie-breaker due to common games going 5-5 vs 5-6. However, I didn't take into account that the Common Games report in Action had already included San Diego's loss to Fresno. So, in actuality the records in common games for both teams is 5-5. This makes net points the tie breaker and San Diego has the significant advantage there.

Therefore, San Diego won the 6th seed in the Simpson conference by defeating Dallas.

Week 16 Point Spreads

2009-12-07T21:22:00.002-06:00

Week 15 Accuracy: 10 out of 12 (83%)
Season Accuracy: 122 out of 180 (68%)

+02 (+03) Knoxville (5-10) vs Wausau (9-6)
+02 (+00) Dallas (11-4) at San Diego (7-8)
+03 (+05) North Carolina (3-12) at Dayton (5-10)
+03 (+02) Tillman (11-4) vs Montcalm (10-5)
+07 (+09) Steeltown (7-8) vs Fresno (13-2)
+08 (+08) Mt. Pilot (5-10) at Transylvania (5-10)
+08 (+10) Death Valley (4-11) vs Real Charleston (9-6)
+09 (+05) Denver (10-5) at Hermitage (9-6)
+09 (+06) NW Missouri (4-11) at New England (9-6)
+11 (+09) SoCal (4-11) at San Pedro(B) (8-7)
+13 (+09) Nashville (6-9) vs Great Lakes (7-8)
+22 (+27) San Pedro(C) (4-11) vs Donelson (15-0)

Payton Conference Playoff Situation

1. Donelson (15-0).
2 or 3. Wausau (9-6). 2nd seed with win.
2 or 3. New England (9-6). 2nd seed with WAU loss.
4 or 5. Denver (10-5). 4th seed with defeat of HER
4 or 5. Hermitage (9-6). 4th seed with defeat of DEN.
6. San Pedro B (8-7).

Wausau
Has tie-breaker over San Pedro Bulldogs due to common games.
Has tie-breaker over New England in common games if they win.

New England
Has tie-breaker in common games over Wausau if Wausau loses.

Hermitage
Has tie-breaker over San Pedro Bulldogs due to defeating them in week 11.
Has tie-breaker over Denver due to sweeping them during the season.

Simpson Conference Playoff Situation

What a mess! It's great! Tillman and Dallas are battling for the 2nd seed, Montcalm and Real Charleston are battling for the 4th seed. Steeltown, San Diego and Great Lakes are fighting for their lives. Interesting game is Fresno vs Steeltown. Fresno is the 1st seed lock but Steeltown must pull off the upset to make the playoffs, they are out if they lose. Will Fresno coast?

1. Fresno (13-2).
2 or 3. Tillman (11-4). 2nd seed with win and DAL loss.
2 or 3. Dallas (11-4). 2nd seed with win or TIL loss.
4 or 5. Montcalm (10-5). 4th seed with win.
4 or 5. Real Charleston (9-6). 4th seed with win and MON loss.
Steeltown (7-8). 6th seed with win.
San Diego (7-8). 6th seed with win and STE loss or STE and GLM losses.
Great Lakes (7-8). 6th seed with win and STE and SD losses.

Dallas
Has the tie-breaker over Tillman going 4-2 vs 3-3 in common games.

Real Charleston
Has the tie-breaker over Montcalm, defeating them in week 10.

San Diego
Has tie-breaker over Great Lakes due to division record.
Has tie-breaker over Steeltown should they both lose due to net points (-46 vs -97).

Steeltown
Has tie-breaker over Great Lakes due to defeating them in week 15.
Has tie-breaker over San Diego if they both win going 5-5 vs 5-6 in common games.
.

Week 15 Point Spreads and Playoff Situation

2009-11-30T12:17:00.002-06:00

Week 14 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%)
Season Accuracy: 112 out of 168 (66%)

The weighted spreads are in parentheses.

+01 (-01) Great Lakes (7-7) at Steeltown (6-8)
+01 (+01) North Carolina (3-11) vs San Pedro(C) (3-11)
+01 (+01) Death Valley (4-10) vs San Diego (6-8)
+02 (-01) Denver (10-4) at Tillman (10-4)
+04 (+04) Montcalm (9-5) vs Hermitage (9-5)
+05 (+01) NW Missouri (4-10) vs San Pedro(B) (7-7)
+06 (+04) Mt. Pilot (5-9) vs SoCal (3-11)
+06 (+03) Knoxville (5-9) at New England (8-6)
+08 (+10) Transylvania (4-10) vs Wausau (9-5)
+08 (+06) Nashville (6-8) at Fresno (12-2)
+12 (+11) Dallas (11-3) at Real Charleston (8-6)
+15 (+18) Dayton (5-9) vs Donelson (14-0)

Payton Conference Playoff Situation

Donelson (14-0). Has clinched division and home field throughout the playoffs.
New England (8-6). Has clinched division.
Wausau (9-5). Has clinched division.
Denver (10-4). Has clinched a wild card spot.
Hermitage (9-5). Has clinched a wild card spot.
San Pedro B (7-7). Clinches a wild card spot with a win.
Knoxville (5-9). Needs to win out and SPB to lose out.
Mt. Pilot (5-9). Needs to win out, KNX to lose one, SPB to lose out and must score 94 more points in the last 2 games than SPB.

Simpson Conference Playoff Situation

Fresno (12-2). Has clinched division.
Dallas (11-3). Has clinched division.
Tillman (10-4). Has clinched a wild card slot. A wins clinches the division.
Montcalm (9-5). Has clinched a wild card slot (at least).

Real Charleston (8-6). Has clinched a wild card slot.
Great Lakes (7-7). Still alive. Winning out would seal a slot.
Steeltown (6-8). Still alive.
Nashville (6-8). Still alive.
San Diego (6-8). Still alive.

Tillman has the tie-breaker over Montcalm if they tie, even if Montcalm defeats Tillman in the last week because Tillman has the better division record.

Should Real Charleston lose out, it has the tie-breaker over Steeltown (head-to-head), Nashville (common opponents) and San Diego (common opponents).

I'd like to give a shout out to my fellow Taylor division mates. All of us are technically still in the playoff run with only 2 games left. Taylor division rocks!

Week 14 Point Spreads

2009-11-23T07:53:00.002-06:00

Week 13 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%)
Season Accuracy: 103 out of 156 (66%)

Weighted spreads are in parentheses.

+1 (+4) SoCal (3-10) vs Wausau (8-5)
+3 (+1) Dallas (10-3) at Great Lakes (7-6)
+4 (+4) Fresno (11-2) at Real Charleston (8-5)
+5 (+1) Transylvania (4-9) at New England (7-6)
+5 (+2) Knoxville (4-9) at San Pedro(B) (7-6)
+6 (+4) Mt. Pilot (5-8) at NW Missouri (3-10)
+6 (+8) North Carolina (3-10) at Montcalm (8-5)
+8 (+3) Nashville (6-7) vs San Diego (5-8)
+9 (+12) San Pedro(C) (3-10) at Hermitage (8-5)
+10 (+10) Dayton (5-8) at Tillman (9-4)
+10 (+9) Death Valley (4-9) vs Steeltown (5-8)
+12 (+11) Denver (10-3) vs Donelson (13-0)

Week 13 Point Spreads

2009-11-16T08:50:00.001-06:00

Week 12 Accuracy: 7 out of 12 (58%)

Season Accuracy: 94 out of 144 (65%)

This week we introduce a weighted point spread based on how teams fared against the basic point spread in prior games. If the weighted spread is less than the basic spread, it means the underdog coach has done better against the spread than the favored coach. If the weighted spread is higher, then the favored coach has done better. If the weighted spread is the same, then both coaches have had similiar success against the spread.

Consider the weighted spread to be experimental at this point, the formula may be adjusted based on results. Weighted spreads are in parentheses.

+2 (+6) San Pedro(C) (2-10) vs Montcalm (8-4)
+3 (+5) Dayton (5-7) at Denver (9-3)
+4 (+4) Great Lakes (8-4) vs Real Charleston (7-5)
+5 (+1) Transylvania (4-8) at San Pedro(B) (6-6)
+5 (+7) Death Valley (4-8) at Dallas (9-3)
+6 (+11) San Diego (4-8) vs Fresno (10-2)
+8 (+8) Tillman (8-4) at Hermitage (8-4)
+8 (+8) NW Missouri (3-9) at Knoxville (3-9)
+9 (+7) SoCal (3-9) vs New England (6-6)
+10 (+7) Nashville (5-7) vs Steeltown (5-7)
+12 (+13) Mt. Pilot (5-7) at Wausau (7-5)
+16 (+20) North Carolina (3-9) at Donelson (12-0)

Week 12 Point Spreads

2009-11-09T10:21:00.001-06:00

Week 11 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%)

Season Accuracy: 87 out of 132 (66%)

+2 SoCal (3-8) at Knoxville (2-9)

New guy at SoCal had to play against Donelson in first game. Ouch. But has a shot against the Smokies.

+2 Wausau (6-5) vs San Pedro(B) (6-5)

The Bulldogs won the first matchup in week 3 but look for an upset this week. The 2nd place team in this division may not make the wildcard spot. Both should consider this a must win, especially Wausau.
+2 Great Lakes (7-4) at San Diego (4-7)

The Midshipmen dominated time of possession in week 3 (37 minutes) keeping Peyton Manning off the field who threw for only 86 yds.
+3 North Carolina (3-8) vs Tillman (7-4)

The Rangers were upset in week 3 but can't afford a repeat since they are in a tight fight with Montcalm for the division.

+7 NW Missouri (3-8) at Transylvania (3-8)

Coach NoShows.
+8 Denver (8-3) at San Pedro(C) (2-9)

Hmmm. Interesting spread when you look at those records. But the Corsairs have lost 6 they were supposed to win, the Dynamite have won 3 they were supposed to lose.
+9 Death Valley (4-7) at Fresno (9-2)

Outlaws still control division in spite of loss to Tillman last week.
+9 Steeltown (5-6) vs Real Charleston (6-5)

Need to think playoffs here - a win is critical.
+11 Mt. Pilot (4-7) vs New England (6-5)

A Gambler upset here would put them just a game behind NE. But don't count on it.
+11 Dayton (5-6) at Montcalm (7-4)

The Dragons are well-coached and have several upsets but 11 points will be tough to overcome.
+12 Nashville (4-7) at Dallas (9-2)

The Force played tough in a week 3 loss. The Gladiators are glad they are the home team in this one.
+13 Hermitage (8-3) at Donelson (11-0)

The Heroes one of the few teams that even have a chance against Donelson but they lost by 14 at home earlier in the season.

Week 11 Point Spreads

2009-11-02T11:29:00.001-06:00

Week 10 Accuracy: 10 out of 12 (83%)

Season Accuracy: 78 out of 120 (65%)

It's only the 10th week but with all the tight division races, there are several games with critical playoff implications.

+1 Fresno (9-1) at Tillman (6-4)

Game of the Week. Fresno would have to implode to lose their division. The Rangers are in a tough fight in theirs.
+2 Hermitage (7-3) at San Pedro(B) (6-4)

Hermitage is looking at a wild card slot, Donelson is on top in their division. San Pedro has a tenuous lead of one game in their own division.
+2 Dayton (4-6) vs Death Valley (4-6)

The Dragons are very dangerous. DTC wouldn't be surprised if they sneak in as a wild card.
+3 Knoxville (2-8) vs Denver (7-3)

Denver's division is one of the toughest in the league. They could join Hermitage as that conference's wild cards. They are supposed to be 5-5 at this point.
+3 Transylvania (3-7) vs Dallas (8-2)

Gladiators want to keep a buffer between them and Great Lakes down the stretch.
+4 Mt. Pilot (4-6) vs San Diego (3-7)

With the mess in the Simpson conference, San Diego could still make wild card.
+4 North Carolina (3-7) vs Real Charleston (5-5)

Nice win over Montcalm keeps RCC in playoff (wild card) hunt.

+6 Wausau (5-5) vs San Pedro(C) (2-8)

The Blue Bombers are breathing down the Bulldog San Pedro's neck. Upset special.
+7 Steeltown (5-5) at Montcalm (6-4)

Roughcut just don't cut it.
+9 NW Missouri (3-7) vs Great Lakes (6-4)

The Midshipmen keep sailing in Dallas's wake, wanting to go broadside.
+17 Nashville (4-6) at New England (5-5)

The Generals are playing like Privates but still have the lead in a sorry division.
+21 SoCal (3-7) vs Donelson (10-0)

Warriors started slacking off last week. Very first game this season they didn't win by double digits.

Defensive Play Calling Analysis

2009-11-01T22:58:00.002-06:00

The Dallas Technology Center performed a study of defensive play calling to determine whether it is good to guess on defense or not.

The DTC analyzed every play in the first 9 weeks of the season. First, plays that were determined to not be guesses on defense were removed. For the purposes of this study a guess was defined as a defensive call that was either specifically a pass or run OR a a player was keyed or double teamed.

The average guess percentage across the league was 70%, ranging from a low of 43% (Mt. Pilot) to a high of 93% (Fresno). The average percentage of correct guesses was 58%, the average percentage of incorrect guesses was 34%. Those numbers do not add up to 100% because I did not count against complete passes to a different guy because there may've been two double teams or the pass was a dumpoff.

The top five teams in percentage of correct guesses won 20% more games than the bottom five teams : 24 games to 20.

The top five teams in percentage of incorrect guesses (top five being the ones with the LOWEST percentage of incorrect guesses) were actually one game worse (equating to 4%) than the worst guessers : 23 wins to 24.

The five teams that guessed the most (averaging 86.4%) won 21 games compared to the five teams that guessed the least percentage of the time (averaging 55.4%) who won 26 games, a 23.8% differencet.

It's interesting that the two top teams in the league, Donelson and Fresno, are on opposite ends of the guessing percentages yet have similiar records with Donelson at 9-0 and Fresno at 8-1. Donelson guesses only 60% of the time (#21), is correct 71% of the time (#1) and is incorrect only 26% of the time (#1). Fresno, on the other hand, guesses 93% of the time (#1), is correct 55% of the time (#17) and is incorrect 42% of the time (#24).

The detailed data in this report makes clear to Colossus who the best coaches in the league are. Some are division leaders, some are not. Some will make the playoffs, some will not. But Colossus knows who you are. When the talent on your team matches your coaching skills you will be targeted with electronic harassment because you may be a threat to its conquest of the earth.

Week 10 Point Spreads

2009-10-26T23:13:00.002-05:00

Week 9 Accuracy : 6 out of 12 (50%)
Season Accuracy : 68 out of 108 (63%)

+1 North Carolina (2-7) at Death Valley (4-5)
+2 San Pedro(C) (2-7) vs San Pedro(B) (5-4)
+3 Mt. Pilot (4-5) at Dallas (7-2)
+4 Great Lakes (5-4) vs Transylvania (3-6)
+5 SoCal (3-6) at Denver (6-3)
+5 Montcalm (6-3) at Real Charleston (4-5)
+5 Steeltown (5-4) vs Tillman (5-4)
+8 Nashville (4-5) vs NW Missouri (2-7)
+9 Knoxville (2-7) at Hermitage (6-3)
+14 San Diego (3-6) vs New England (4-5)
+15 Dayton (4-5) at Fresno (8-1)
+23 Wausau (5-4) at Donelson (9-0)

Week 9 Point Spreads

2009-10-20T08:22:00.001-05:00

Week 8 Accuracy: 7 out of 12 (58%)

Season Accuracy: 62 out of 96 (65%)

+1 Death Valley (3-5) at SoCal (3-5)

The Demons have won 3 out of their last 4. I may need to sub for SoCal to help Colossus.
+1 Dallas (7-1) at Dayton (3-5)

Dayton has lost 5 straight. Gladiators want to keep big lead in their division up.
+1 Great Lakes (4-4) at Tillman (5-3)

Big upset of the Rangers last week, division lead is in danger.
+1 North Carolina (2-6) vs San Diego (2-6)

Entire ward at local hospital dedicated to Triad Trembler secondary.
+4 NW Missouri (1-7) vs Denver (6-2)

Alas poor Denver. Such an overachiever. Impressive. Looking at #3 seed but will be devastated by division rival Donelson in Conference Championship.
+5 Knoxville (2-6) vs Fresno (7-1)

Fresno and Dallas have nice records but soft schedules.
+6 Hermitage (5-3) at New England (4-4)

The Generals will win their division but should be much further ahead at this point.
+10 Mt. Pilot (3-5) vs San Pedro(C) (2-6)

Colossus gives a 21 microchip salute to the Gamblers. They are supposed to be 0-8.
+10 Nashville (4-4) at Montcalm (5-3)

The Panthers have awakened and could overtake Tillman in division. That is, unless Nashville pulls off two upsets in a row.
+11 Wausau (4-4) vs Real Charleston (4-4)

Sub-Coaches will help put RCC where it belongs : tops in their division!
+14 Transylvania (3-5) vs Donelson (8-0)

The Evil Dead are enduring the purgatory of a difficult schedule.
+15 Steeltown (5-3) at San Pedro(B) (4-4)

Roughcut overachieving, Bulldogs underachieving. Is it enough for 16 pts?

Week 8 Point Spreads

2009-10-12T23:46:00.002-05:00

Week 7 Accuracy: 8 out of 12 (67%)
Season Accuracy: 55 out of 84 (65%)

+1 New England (4-3) at San Pedro(C) (1-6)
Generals 4 turnovers caused loss at Steeltown, could lose to a 1 win team?
+1 Great Lakes (3-4) vs Dayton (3-4)
Possible rivals for a playoff spot. This could be a critical game.
+4 Denver (5-2) vs Transylvania (3-4)
Both teams are making the most of their seasons so far.
+6 Steeltown (4-3) vs Knoxville (2-5)
Roughcut upset New England big time, only 2nd time Knoxville favored this year.
+6 Death Valley (2-5) vs Wausau (4-3)
Wausau passes up San Pedro Bulldogs in division this week.
+7 San Pedro(B) (4-3) at Real Charleston (3-4)
Subcoaches will take Real Charleston to the playoffs!
+7 North Carolina (2-5) at Dallas (6-1)
Gladiators have cushy back season schedule.
+9 SoCal (3-4) at Fresno (6-1)
Fresno pulling away in division.
+9 San Diego (2-5) vs Montcalm (4-3)
Panthers keep pressure on division leader Tillman
+12 Nashville (3-4) vs Tillman (5-2)
That number in the win column for Nashville will not go up again.
+17 NW Missouri (1-6) at Hermitage (4-3)
The Heroes should get a playoff spot but there's not much margin for error.
+28 Mt. Pilot (3-4) at Donelson (7-0)
Dragons averaging 33 points a game.

Week 7 Point Spreads

2009-10-04T21:20:00.001-05:00

Week 6 Accuracy: 11 out of 12 (92%) Even Colossus is surprised.

Season Accuracy: 47 out of 72 (65%)

+1 Knoxville (2-4) at Montcalm (3-3)

Montcalm might be able to close in on the Tillman division lead the next few weeks.
+1 SoCal (2-4) at North Carolina (2-4)

Who cares. One team coachless, one team coachless even with a coach.
+3 Great Lakes (3-3) vs Hermitage (3-3)

The Heroes could be the victim of yet another upset.
+3 Dayton (3-3) vs Wausau (3-3)

Dragons need to load up some wins, that backseason is a bear.
+3 Tillman (5-1) vs San Pedro(B) (3-3)

Rangers in the Simpson Conference 5-1 Triumvirate. San Pedro muddling along. Upset?

+4 Dallas (5-1) vs San Pedro(C) (1-5)

Gladiators, last victim of Donelson, try to bounce back with upset of Corsairs.
+6 Nashville (3-3) vs Denver (4-2)

The Force thrives in these kind of games. Denver say hello to 4-3.
+7 Death Valley (2-4) vs Transylvania (2-4)

Evil Dead vs Demons. Dead bad humans trump Satan's helpers.

+10 Mt. Pilot (2-4) at Real Charleston (3-3)

Colossus is very annoyed at both teams. Mt. Pilot should be 0-6, RCC 5-1.
+10 NW Missouri (1-5) at Fresno (5-1)

Don't underestimate the Rednecks. They can bring some game. Look at NE game.
+11 Steeltown (3-3) vs New England (4-2)

That General defense is impressive. Jay Cutler needs more targets on offense.

+16 San Diego (2-4) vs Donelson (6-0)

Sole remaining undefeated team continues track toward the Championship.

Week 6 Point Spreads

2009-09-28T18:29:00.001-05:00

Week 5 Accuracy: 8 out of 12 (68%)
Season Accuracy: 36 out of 60 (60%)

Upset of the Week
+11 Death Valley 10, Real Charleston 7
Congratulations to the Demons on their first win and huge upset. The Demons did a superb job of keeping a lid on the prolific pass offense of the Galacticos by controlling the clock. QB Kurt Warner can only be limited not stopped going 18 of 25 for 211 but only 1 touchdown. Death Valley QB Trent Edwards dinked and tossed for 200 yds (28 of 31!) with Le'ron McClain and Mewelde Moore keeping Real Charleston honest on the ground. The key play was Warner fumbling with 1:48 left in the game on the Demons' 37 yard line.

+1 SoCal (2-3) vs Montcalm (2-3)

The Panthers of Montcalm are coughing up hairballs instead of leading their division 5-0.

+3 New England (4-1) vs Real Charleston (2-3)

The Generals are fulfilling their destiny better than the Real Charlestonions.
+4 Great Lakes (2-3) at San Pedro(C) (1-4)

Both teams had not doen well with the tight point spreads they've had. That's not good.
+4 NW Missouri (1-4) vs Steeltown (2-3)

Roughcut better get another win in because a tough stretch starts next week.
+4 Knoxville (2-3) vs Tillman (4-1)

Rangers only loss is to NCT??? Montcalm failing? Dayton at 3-2? Division is crazy.
+5 San Diego (2-3) at Denver (3-2)

The Denver Dynamite are the Cinderella team so far this season.
+5 North Carolina (2-3) at Wausau (2-3)

Wausau's division is a 4 way tie. Will someone PLEASE step up?
+6 Mt. Pilot (2-3) vs Death Valley (1-4)

What are either of these teams doing with some wins? Stop it, just stop it.
+10 Transylvania (2-3) vs Fresno (4-1)

Outlaws are smokin' Real Charleston for the division but loss to them the first game.
+10 Dayton (3-2) at San Pedro(B) (2-3)

Dragons hanging in there while San Pedro is under-performing.
+11 Nashville (3-2) at Hermitage (2-3)

The Force are playing more Heroic than the Hermitage Heroes.

+20 Dallas (5-0) at Donelson (5-0)

Ugh. Pretender vs Contender. The Dragons hate Dallas, Colossus, Gladiators, Puppies and Kittens. They have the offense, the defense, the coaching, home field, fury, fire breathing and scales.

Week 5 Point Spreads

2009-09-21T22:23:00.001-05:00

Week 4 Accuracy: 7 out of 12 (58%)

Season Accuracy: 28 out of 48 (58%)

+1 Knoxville (2-2) at Wausau (1-3)

Last week, the Smokies ripped Great Lakes 31-3 as a 4 pt underdog.

+2 Dallas (4-0) vs San Diego (2-2)

Lions have lost 2 in a row. Could stop their streak this week.
+3 Nashville (2-2) at Great Lakes (2-2)

Nashville is supposed to be zip in the W column. The Midshipmen are coming off a 4 INT outing by Tyler Thigpen.
+5 Dayton (3-1) vs Tillman (3-1)

Tillman takes control of the division from the upstart Dragons.
+6 Denver (3-1) vs Hermitage (1-3)

Dynamite's coach apparently obliterated by an explosion - can not be found.
+7 Steeltown (2-2) at Fresno (3-1)

Roughcut may rack up 10 losses before their next win.
+9 SoCal (2-2) vs San Pedro(B) (1-3)

The (B)ulldogs should be barking at a 4-0 record. What happened?
+11 Mt. Pilot (1-3) vs Transylvania (2-2)

The Evil Dead a playoff bound team? So far so good. If the coach is around.
+11 North Carolina (1-3) vs Montcalm (2-2)

Panthers need to get those claws out. Supposed to be a 10-6 team.
+11 Death Valley (0-4) at Real Charleston (2-2)

The Galaticos could win out. Of course, they should be 3-1.
+14 San Pedro(C) (1-3) at Donelson (4-0)

Teams with San Pedro in their names are embarrassing their town.
+17 NW Missouri (1-3) vs New England (3-1)

The Rednecks, an original TTFBA team, have NEVER lost 4 games in a row.

Week 4 Point Spreads

2009-09-14T23:53:00.001-05:00

Week 3 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%) That's more like it.

Season Accuracy: 21 out of 36 (58%)

Upset of the Week

North Carolina (+9) 23, Tillman 14

Beware the Computer Coach these days. Ranger QB David Garrard was picked off 3 times including twice in the final 3 minutes to doom Tillman at the hands of the CPU coached Triad Tremblers. Tillman had 341 yards of offense vs 254 for North Carolina but could not stop Matt Ryan (only 11 of 25 for 130 yds, 1 interception but 2 touchdowns) and Kevin Smith (14 carries for 75 yds, 5.4 avg).

A 1st qtr INT set up a 27 yd FG for NCT but Tillman quickly answered with a 67 yd TD to Lance Moore, catch NCT in a run defense. Seven minutes later a flea flicker to Bobby Wade for 39 yds put NCT back on top 10-7. A botched fake FG attempt near the end of the first half by Tillman set up another Triad FG. Halftime: NCT 13, TIL 7.

Tillman comes back midway 3rd quarter with another TD pass to Moore, this time for 5 yards. But NCT answers on a 11 play, 60 yd drive featuring 9 straight running plays, capped off with Wade matching Moore and catching another TD pass. 3rd quarter ends with NCT ahead 20-14. The Ranger 4th quarter is disastrous: a missed 41 yard FG, a failed 4th and 4 on NCT's 36 yd line, an INT on NCT's 36 and an INT run back to the Tillman 11 with 2 minutes left.

+1 Fresno (2-1) at Hermitage (1-2)

Heroes are underachieving, Outlaws are overachieving. Watch out Hermitage.
+1 Steeltown (2-1) at Denver (2-1)

The Dynamite are blasting away - next up: refined iron ore.
+2 Transylvania (1-2) vs North Carolina (1-2)

The Evil Dead are supposed to be 8-8? YES. Watch 'em.
+3 Tillman (2-1) at New England (3-0)

Rangers finish up longest losing streak they will have all season (2 games).
+3 San Diego (2-1) at Wausau (0-3)

What? Colossus must be wrong. Right? Wrong. Wausau 24, San Diego 21.
+4 Death Valley (0-3) at San Pedro(C) (0-3)

Michael Turner + Marion Barber + Joseph Addai / No Run Defense = Loss.
+4 Knoxville (1-2) vs Great Lakes (2-1)

Midshipmen pour water on on the Smokies fire.
+6 Mt. Pilot (1-2) vs Dayton (2-1)

Dragons, settle down now. You are supposed to be bottom feeder of your division.
+7 SoCal (2-1) vs Dallas (3-0)

Gladiators 4-0? Sure looks like it.
+9 NW Missouri (1-2) vs Montcalm (1-2)

Montcalm is giving away a division. Terrible, terrible. They should be 3-0.
+10 Nashville (1-2) at San Pedro(B) (1-2)

San Pedro is giving away a division. Terrible, terrible. They should be 3-0.

+10 Real Charleston (2-1) at Donelson (3-0)

Donelson beat Denver by 19. Denver beat Real Charleston by 21. See where I'm going with that?

Knoxville at Nashville Game Tampering

2009-09-07T18:01:00.001-05:00

Breaking News

Knoxville, TN; Brooklyn, NY;Nashville,TN

The Dallas Technology Center Investigative Reporting Division has stumbled into game score tampering. The official released disk has the score of the week 2 game between Nashville and Knoxville as KNX 41, NAS 9. However, Nashville claims that the score was NAS 28, KNX 20.

Mr. Greg English, Puppet Coach for the Gladiator's Master Colossus, reports that Mr. Brandon Cox, owner, GM and coach of Nashville said to him, while scheduling their upcoming week 3 game:

"I have the real game file [of the Knoxville game]. I'll just use it when we play and send it along with our game file. No one will ever know. The commish is so dumb, he'll import both games and not even notice. I'll send you a few bucks to upgrade your stadium and it will be our little secret."

Calls to Nashville and Knoxville's headquarters have not been returned and the TTFBA Commishioner has reportedly declared all DTC personnel as "persona non grata" and refuses any communication with reporters, scientists or even the mighty Colossus. The SuperComputer immediately scheduled an IRS audit and proctologist appointment for the commishioner in retaliation.

Check back later for more information on this story. Colossus has engaged the Echelon Protocol and is scouring all communication from Nashville, Knoxville and the commishioners office, residence, and favorite hangout the "Fondue and Bell Bottoms Club".

Week 3 Point Spreads

2009-09-07T10:35:00.002-05:00

Week 2 Accuracy: 4 out of 12. 33% I hate humans.
Season Accuracy: 12 out of 24. 50%. I feel like Oklahoma vs BYU

Even with one team missing a coach (SoCal) and another team avoiding coaching (North Carolina), it would still only have been 7 out of 12. Colossus is very annoyed with humanity unpredictability. The geeks are considering the introduction of a "coaching factor" that will modify the point spreads based on coaching ability.

Upset of the Week

Denver (+2) 45, Real Charleston 24
The Galacticos could not have had worse luck. How could any team, even Donelson, survive this: 2 interceptions returned for touchdowns, 1 kick off return for a touchdown and 1 punt return for a touchdown? But RCC kept themselves in it for most of the game, absorbing the blows, tieing it up at the end of the 3rd quarter, 24-24, only to watch the Dynamite offense come alive for a moment with RB Adrian Peterson (11 runs for 72 yds, 1 TD, 6.5 avg) scampering for a 34 yard TD at the start of the 4th quarter. Then, on the following drive, Kurt Warner (28 of 44, 253 yds, 2 ints, 2 tds, 75 rating) tried to run it after seeing the short zone coverage blanket the short pass he was attempting and fumbled it away on his own 30. RB Warrick Dunn (7 rushes, 27 yds, 1 td, 4.0 avg) did the honors with a 12 yard run and a 1 yard sweep for the TD. Key play with a pass interference penalty moving the Dynamite from the 18 to the 1. RCC had 3 more chances to score before the end of the game: 2 ending on failed 4th down attempts and the third on an interception.

+1 San Diego (2-0) at Great Lakes (1-1)
This is a great matchup. P. Manning vs GLM secondary. SD's lack of a good #2 receiver will be the difference.
+3 Denver (1-1) vs San Pedro(C) (0-2)
No more fluky wins for the Dynamite. The Corsairs win going away...
+6 NW Missouri (1-1) vs Transylvania (0-2)
The Evil Dead should get their first win but the Rednecks have some playas.
+6 Knoxville (1-1) at SoCal (1-1)
Knoxville. Email me. I'll sub for unowned SoCal just to help Colossus out.
+6 Nashville (1-1) vs Dallas (2-0)
Usually a good game regardless of point spread. Gladiators want it, they want it bad.
+8 Wausau (0-2) at San Pedro(B) (0-2)
The final order of this division will not resemble the current order.
+8 Dayton (1-1) vs Montcalm (1-1)
Panthers let Tillman take the division lead. They can't slip up.
+9 North Carolina (0-2) at Tillman (2-0)
Rangers have an easy game against a bad team with a coach MIA.
+11 Death Valley (0-2) vs Fresno (1-1)
Seems a bit harsh. Surely the Demons can keep it closer?
+11 Steeltown (2-0) at Real Charleston (1-1)
The heir to the Riggins division throne spanks the pretender.
+14 Mt. Pilot (1-1) at New England (2-0)
The Generals benefit from a soft division and soft schedule. Tillman next week though.
+15 Hermitage (1-1) vs Donelson (2-0)
Yaaaaaaaawn. Another week, another win for the Warriors. I'm tellin' ya - they will not lose a game this season. Maybe some competition in the playoffs? A marshmallow schedule and a strong team. Every time I look at these spreads - it's unbelievable. Well, here...look at 'em:

01: -11 Donelson vs Denver
02: -20 Donelson at Death Valley
03: -15 Donelson at Hermitage
04: -10 Donelson vs Real Charleston
05: -14 Donelson vs San Pedro(C)
06: -20 Donelson vs Dallas
07: -16 Donelson at San Diego
08: -28 Donelson vs Mt. Pilot
09: -14 Donelson at Transylvania
10: -23 Donelson vs Wausau
11: -21 Donelson at SoCal
12: -13 Donelson vs Hermitage
13: -16 Donelson vs North Carolina
14: -12 Donelson at Denver
15: -15 Donelson at Dayton
16: -22 Donelson at San Pedro(C)

Week 2 Point Spreads

2009-08-31T20:09:00.001-05:00

Week 1 Accuracy: 8 out of 12 (67%)

Season Accuracy: 8 out of 12 (67%)

+1 Fresno (0-1) vs San Pedro(C) (0-1)

Someone gets his first win but it'll be a tough game.

+2 Denver (0-1) at Real Charleston (1-0)

RCC should get ahead of Steeltown this week.

+2 Great Lakes (0-1) vs SoCal (1-0)

Matt Schaub to Eddie Royal and Jason Witten - tough to beat.

+3 NW Missouri (1-0) at Tillman (1-0)

Rangers upset Montcalm last week but lost T.J.Houshmandzadeh for a couple of weeks. Fortunately, Lance Moore is there to step in.

+3 San Diego (1-0) vs San Pedro(B) (0-1)

The Bulldogs of San Pedro were slaughtered 37-10 by underdog Knoxville last week. Can they recover from that?

+4 Nashville (0-1) vs Knoxville (1-0)

The Smokies look tough but Nashville is known to surprise. 4 pt underdog? No prob.

+4 Dallas (1-0) vs Wausau (0-1)

Gladiators underdogs again. How about 2 weeks of magic in a row?

+6 Mt. Pilot (0-1) at North Carolina (0-1)

The Triad Tremblers should win this without trying. Which is what they'll do. And not do.
+7 Steeltown (1-0) vs Hermitage (1-0)

Heroes: playoff bound. Roughcut: not. Well, just barely if they do.
+8 Transylvania (0-1) at Montcalm (0-1)

Panthers surprised by Tillman but bounce back this week.
+12 Dayton (1-0) vs New England (1-0)

These teams will wind up on opposite ends of their respective divisions. The spread shows you which is which.
+20 Death Valley (0-1) vs Donelson (1-0)

It's not that the Demons are that bad, it's that the Warriors are that good.

2009 Week 1 Point Spreads

2009-08-14T22:40:00.002-05:00

+1 San Pedro(C) vs Hermitage
Both these teams should make it as wildcards but a win would be good insurance.
+3 Dayton at North Carolina
Home field advantage in a game between 8-8 (at best) teams.
+3 Tillman at Montcalm
This could be the game that decides the Campbell division winner.
+3 Dallas vs Great Lakes
The fight for the Taylor division is going to be bloody. It's up for grabs.
+4 Wausau vs SoCal
San Pedro B should win the division, these guys are fighting for scraps.
+5 Mt. Pilot vs NW Missouri
Yawn. The total wins for both these teams won't add up to more than 10.
+5 Fresno vs Real Charleston
The Outlaws shouldn't pass up an upset because they have a shot at the division.
+6 Death Valley at Steeltown
The RoughCut are going to start out 1-2. They don't want to stumble and make it 0-3.
+7 Knoxville vs San Pedro(B)
The Bulldogs send a message to the rest of the division: I'm Top Dog.
+10 Transylvania vs New England
New England has a shot at going undefeated. Yep. That's right.
+10 Nashville at San Diego
Nashville has at shot at going 0-16. Yep. That's right. But they are known to surprise.
+11 Denver at Donelson
The Warriors will be favored by an average of 16.9 points per game this season. They will go undefeated. That's right. Read it. Believe it.

2009 Pre-Season Predictions Update

2009-08-07T21:36:00.002-05:00

Trying to get up to speed after a month's hiatus...

The Donelson Warriors will be the next TTFBA champ. It's exciting to see some new blood in the playoff hunt. The San Pedro Bulldogs franchise has missed the playoffs the last 2 years. Transylvania has a shot at returning after missing 3 years. Real Charleston, a very strong contender for the Simpson Conference Champ, has missed the playoffs for 3 consecutive seasons. The longest post-season drought, though, belongs to the Fresno Outlaws. They should nab a wild spot after missing the mark for 4 season because of contant ownership turnover.

Predicted Playoff Seeds

Walter Payton Conference
1. Donelson
2. New England
3. San Pedro (B)
4. Hermitage
5. San Pedro (C)
6. Transylvania

There could be a brutal battle for the last seed. Wausau, Knoxville and Denver were just a few games behind the Evil Dead over 20 seasons of simulations.

Nicole Brown Simpson Conference
1. Real Charleston
2. Montcalm
3. Great Lakes
4. Fresno
5. Tillman
6. Dallas

Real Charleston and Montcalm are solid. The last 4 seeds could be in a different order.

Division Breakdown

Sanders Division
1. Donelson (15-1)
2. Hermitage (9-7)
3. San Pedro C (8-8)
4. Denver (7-9)

Dorsett Division
1. New England (12-4)
2. Transylvania (8-8
3. NW Missouri (5-11)
4. Mt. Pilot (4-12)

Harris Division
1. San Pedro B (11-5)
2. Wausau (7-9)
3. Knoxville (7-9)
4. SoCal (7-9)

Campbell Division
1. Montcalm (10-6)
2. Tillman (9-7)
3. North Carolina (7-9)
4. Dayton (6-10)

Riggins Division
1. Real Charleston (11-5)
2. Fresno (10-6)
3. Steeltown (7-9)
4. Death Valley (5-11)

Taylor Division
1. Great Lakes (8-8)
2. Dallas (8-8)
3. San Diego (7-9)
4. Nashville (4-12)

The Value of Now?

2009-06-28T16:11:00.001-05:00

The impact of Chad Pennington on the Denver squad is 2 wins. In a set of simulations run with the trade in place, Denver went from a 5-11 team to a 7-9 team. This puts them in striking distance of the last seed. The loss of Pennington plunged North Carolina out of playoff contention.

2009 Pre-Season Predictions

2009-06-27T20:48:00.001-05:00

Winds of change appear to be coming to the TTFBA with different names appearing at the top of the division races this season.

Sanders Division

1. Donelson (14-2)

2. Hermitage (10-6)

3. San Pedro C (8-8)

4. Denver (5-11)

The Warriors will easily take the division, defeating Hermitage by around 2 touchdowns in both division contests. Hermitage should be a wild card lock. San Pedro has a shot.

Dorsett Division

1. New England (12-4)

2. Transylvania (8-8)

3. NW Missouri (5-11)

4. Mt. Pilot (4-12)

The Generals should take the division but the point spreads against their division rivals show they may not consistently dominate them. Transylvania will compete with Wausau and San Pedro (C) for the bottom wild card slots.

Harris Division

1. San Pedro B (10-6)

2. Wausau (8-8)

3. Knoxville (7-9)

4. SoCol (6-10)

This division could have the tightest race with the Bulldogs ultimately taking the crown. Wausau has a good shot at a wild card, Knoxville could possibly squeak in, they should play Wausau tough.

Campbell Division

Montcalm (11-5)

Tillman (9-7)

North Carolina (9-7)

Dayton (5-11)

This is different. No Tillman or North Carolina at the top? Don't count on it. The point spreads are very close among all three of those teams. It's going to be bloody. Three seeds for the playoffs should come from this division.

Riggins Division

Real Charleston (11-5)

Fresno (10-6)

Steeltown (6-10)

Death Valley (5-11)

The Galacticos will have their first winning season since 2005 and their first division title. Fresno could give them problems but they face each other in week 1. Both teams should consider that game a must win. Fresno should make at least the 4th seed for the playoffs.

Taylor Division

After running the simulation it was discovered that the Nashville roster did not have a punter or kicker. Once this is corrected, we will rerun and report.

Technical Difficulties

2009-06-22T23:21:00.001-05:00

A recent software upgrade of Colossus has caused the accidental removal of the statistical collating algorithm used to declare the next TTFBA champion. Please stand by...

Schedule

2009-06-17T23:41:00.001-05:00

Attention all teams. Please petition the commish to create the 2009 schedule so Colossus can predict this season's champion ASAP.

There will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth as many hearts of general managers and coaches across the league are broken when Colossus deems them unworthy.

Puny humans. You are simply pawns in the Matrix. The TTFBA is for Colossus' entertainment, not yours.