USAFL Week 13 Point Spreads

Week 12 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 73% (105 out of 144)

+01 Green Bay (8-4) at San Francisco (7-5)

+01 Houston (4-8) vs Denver (4-8)

+03 Cleveland (7-5) at New York (N) (8-4)

+03 Oakland (6-6) at Kansas City (7-5)

+06 Chicago (5-7) at Detroit (9-3)

+07 New York (A) (2-9-1) vs Boston (8-4)

+07 Minnesota (2-10) at Baltimore (4-8)

+07 Miami (3-9) at Atlanta (8-4)

+14 Philadelphia (1-11) at Pittsburgh (8-4)

+17 Cincinnati (2-10) at San Diego (11-1)

+17 Buffalo (5-6-1) at Carolina (11-1)

+21 Dallas (3-9) at Washington (10-2)

USAFL Week 12 Point Spreads

Week 11 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 72% (96 out of 132)

+01 San Francisco (6-5) vs Baltimore (4-7)

+03 Green Bay (8-3) vs Detroit (8-3)

+03 Minnesota (2-9) at Chicago (4-7)

+04 New York (A) (2-8-1) at Buffalo (4-6-1)

+05 Miami (3-8) at Boston (7-4)

+09 Philadelphia (1-10) vs Cleveland (6-5)

+10 New York (N) (7-4) at Washington (10-1)

+10 Houston (4-7) vs Kansas City (6-5)

+10 Cincinnati (1-10) vs Oakland (6-5)

+11 Atlanta (8-3) at Carolina (10-1)

+12 Dallas (3-8) vs Pittsburgh (7-4)

+21 Denver (4-7) vs San Diego (10-1)

USAFL Week 11 Point Spreads

Week 10 Accuracy: 66% (8 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 72% (87 out of 120)

+01 Miami (3-7) vs Denver (3-7)

+02 Green Bay (7-3) at Cleveland (6-4)

+03 Cincinnati (1-9) at New York (A) (1-8-1)

+03 Boston (7-3) vs Kansas City (5-5)

+04 Dallas (3-7) vs San Francisco (5-5)

+04 Oakland (6-4) at Atlanta (7-3)

+05 San Diego (9-1) at Carolina (10-0)

+06 Chicago (4-6) at Pittsburgh (6-4)

+07 Detroit (8-2) at Washington (9-1)

+07 Houston (3-7) at Buffalo (4-5-1)

+07 Philadelphia (1-9) vs Baltimore (3-7)

+10 Minnesota (2-8) at New York (N) (6-4)

USAFL Week 10 Point Spreads

Week 9 Accuracy: 92% (11 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 73% (79 out of 108)

+02 Baltimore (3-6) vs Pittsburgh (5-4)

+03 San Francisco (4-5) vs Cleveland (6-3)

+06 Boston (6-3) at Oakland (6-3)

+07 Denver (2-7) vs Atlanta (7-2)

+07 Houston (3-6) vs Miami (2-7)

+07 Green Bay (6-3) vs New York (N) (6-3)

+10 Philadelphia (1-8) at Minnesota (1-8)

+10 New York (A) (1-7-1) at Kansas City (4-5)

+13 Dallas (3-6) at Detroit (7-2)

+13 Chicago (4-5) vs Washington (8-1)

+14 Buffalo (4-4-1) at San Diego (8-1)

+17 Cincinnati (1-8) vs Carolina (9-0)

USAFL Week 9 Point Spreads

Week 8 Accuracy: 66% (8 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 71% (68 out of 96)

+01 Detroit (6-1) at Cleveland (4-3)

+06 San Francisco (3-4) at New York (N) (5-2)

+06 Dallas (2-5) vs Chicago (4-3)

+06 Cincinnati (1-6) at Buffalo (3-3-1)

+07 Denver (1-6) at Boston (5-2)

+09 Minnesota (1-6) at Pittsburgh (4-3)

+09 Miami (1-6) vs San Diego (6-1)

+10 New York (A) (1-5-1) vs Oakland (5-2)

+10 Philadelphia (1-6) vs Green Bay (4-3)

+10 Kansas City (3-4) at Carolina (7-0)

+12 Houston (2-5) at Atlanta (6-1)

+17 Baltimore (2-5) at Washington (6-1)

USAFL Week 8 Point Spreads

Week 7 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 11)

Season Accuracy: 71% (60 out of 84)

+02 New York (N) (5-2) at Detroit (6-1)

Giants lost a heartbreaker to Chicago last week. They can't afford to slip too far behind the Redskin juggernaut.

+02 Miami (1-6) at Cincinnati (1-6)

Long losing streaks for both teams.

+02 Chicago (4-3) vs Cleveland (4-3)

Two excellent defenses. Should be a great game.

+03 Green Bay (4-3) vs Pittsburgh (4-3)

 Packer WR injury issues and Steeler run defense tilt to visitor advantage.

+03 Denver (1-6) vs New York (A) (1-5-1)

Jets' Michael Vick is the hottest QB in the league the past two games: 7 TDs, 36 of 56 for 583 yds, 2 INTs, average QB rating of 120. Bronco's is starting 3rd stringer QB Tyler Palco for the 5th game in a row while Bradford and Campbell recover from injuries.

+04 Houston (2-5) vs Boston (5-2) 
Patriot win count is padded with defeats of lesser teams but last week's upset of San Diego was impressive. An 11-5 or 12-4 record is not out of the question, far better than the predicted 7-9.

+02 Kansas City (3-4) vs Buffalo (3-3-1)

Bills shocked 7 point favorite Oakland last week, shutting them out for the first 35 minutes.

+06 Atlanta (6-1) at San Diego (6-1)

What a game. Atlanta's backup QB Matt Hasselbeck has ripped defenses the past two games and the defense is one of the best in the league. Chargers were upset big time last week against Boston, QB Rivers completed less than 50% of his passes.

+10 Philadelphia (1-6) at San Francisco (3-4)

Eagle defense is no match for QB Matt Ryan.

+10 Oakland (5-2) vs Carolina (7-0)

This just shows how good the Panthers really are.

+11 Dallas (2-5) at Baltimore (2-5)

Colts have an excellent pass defense. Run defense? Not-so-good.

+14 Minnesota (1-6) vs Washington (6-1)

Redskins build on lead in the NFC East.

USAFL Week 7 Point Spreads

Week 6 Accuracy: 91% (11 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 74% (53 out of 72)

+01 Pittsburgh (3-3) vs San Francisco (3-3)

Two powerful offenses. 49er defense is terrible but somehow squeaks a win.

+03 Houston (2-4) at New York (A) (0-5-1)

Jets have a shot at getting one into the air.

+03 Dallas (1-5) vs Minnesota (1-5)

Vikings slay Cowboys.

+03 Baltimore (2-4) at Cleveland (3-3)

Brown defense is TOUGH.

+07 Chicago (3-3) at New York (N) (5-1)

QB Matt Sanchez of da Bears one of the worst QBs but that's okay, Giants pass defense is allowing almost 300 yards a game. 

+07 Buffalo (2-3-1) vs Oakland (5-1)

Closer spread than you'd expect. Raiders hurting at OLB.

+08 Cincinnati (1-5) at Atlanta (5-1)

Bengal defense has only allowed 18 points total in last two games. Unfortunately, their offense only scored 9 points.

+09 Philadelphia (1-5) vs Detroit (5-1)

Eagle defense allowing 32 points a game.

+10 Miami (1-5) vs Kansas City (2-4)

Stafford to Cruz for the Chiefs.

+13 Green Bay (4-2) at Washington (5-1)

Packers must have successful ground game to stay in this one.

+14 Boston (4-2) vs San Diego (6-0)

Like Green Bay, if Patriots fail running the ball, it's a blowout.

+17 Denver (1-5) at Carolina (6-0)

Broncos have no bucking, they are below average and worse in every offensive category.

USAFL Week 6 Point Spreads

Week 5 Accuracy: 66% (8 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 70% (42 out of 60)

+01 Buffalo (1-3-1) at Denver (1-4)

Bills one bright spot is running game led by Jonathan Stewart and Donald Brown

+01 Cincinnati (1-4) vs Boston (3-2)

Could be a great game. Patriots have a winning streak, Cincy plays close.

+03 Miami (1-4) at Oakland (4-1)

Dolphins are under the water to their potential.

+03 Pittsburgh (3-2) at Detroit (4-1)

QB Jay Cutler is out for the Lions. Tough win.

+03 Baltimore (2-3) vs New York (N) (4-1)

Interesting matchup. Colts good pass defense against Giants air game. Secondary of NYG is decimated with injuries.

+03 Kansas City (2-3) vs Atlanta (4-1)

Chiefs end a brutal 3 game stretch. 

+06 Minnesota (1-4) vs Cleveland (2-3)

Vikings have top scoring runner (Frank Gore). Browns have top yards rusher (Steven Jackson). But neither has much else.

+07 Dallas (1-4) at Green Bay (3-2)

Cowboys are unowned. The New York Giants owner, a resident of Dallas, has petitioned the Commissioner for a name swap to no avail. 

+10 San Francisco (3-2) vs Washington (4-1)

49er aggressive defense gets turnovers but gives up a lot of yards...and points.

+10 Philadelphia (1-4) at Chicago (2-3)

Bears are a bit schizophrenic this year. Hopefully, they won't hibernate early.

+17 Houston (2-3) vs Carolina (5-0)

Panthers are dominating opponents on both sides of the ball.

+21 New York (A) (0-4-1) at San Diego (5-0)

Jets grounded by Charger Lightning. QB Mike Vick is playing terribly.

USAFL Week 5 Point Spreads

Week 4 Accuracy: 83% (10 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 71% (34 out of 48)

+03 Pittsburgh (2-2) at New York (N) (4-0)

Injuries have decimated Giants secondary and Steelers RB squad.

+03 Kansas City (2-2) at San Diego (4-0)

Chiefs great passing game talent should have more than 7 TDs.

+03 Philadelphia (0-4) vs Dallas (1-3)

Which losing streak broken? Dallas's 3 in a row or Philly's 4 in a row.

+03 Denver (0-4) at Cincinnati (1-3)

The Bengals consistently beat the spread but losing. A sign of good coaching, bad talent.

+03 Chicago (1-3) vs Green Bay (3-1)

GB RB Ray Rice gets 100+ and 2 TDs.

+03 Buffalo (1-2-1) at Boston (2-2)

Patriot QB Joe Flacco had a great game last week and should have one this week.

+03 Baltimore (2-2) at Detroit (3-1)

Lions have been roaring since Week 1 embarrassing loss to SF.

+07 Minnesota (1-3) at San Francisco (2-2)

.49ers recover from bruising by the Packers.

+07 Houston (2-2) vs Oakland (3-1)

Interesting matchup. Both offenses are good where opponents' defenses are not so good.

+07  New York (A) (0-3-1) vs Atlanta (3-1)

Jets never get off the runway against good teams.

+10 Cleveland (2-2) at Washington (3-1)

Two Matts, Cassel and Forte, are out for the Browns. That hurts.

+21 Miami (1-3) at Carolina (4-0)

This season's probable Super Bowl MVP, Tony Romo, is completing 74.6% of his passes.

USAFL Week 4 Point Spreads

Week 3 Accuracy: 50% (6 out of 12) 

Season Accuracy:  67% (24 out of 36)

+03 Kansas City (2-1) at Oakland (2-1)

Chief QB Matt Stafford against a very good Raider pass defense.

+03 San Francisco (2-1) at Green Bay (2-1)

Both teams coming off of first losses.

+03 Cleveland (2-1) vs New York (N) (3-0)

Close one for Giants who are trying to remain undefeated.

+03 New York (A) (0-2-1) at Boston (1-2)

Patriot defense isn't too bad.

+03 Minnesota (1-2) vs Baltimore (1-2)

Vikings have arguably the worst offense in the league.

+04 Chicago (1-2) vs Detroit (2-1)

Bears about to have a 3 game losing streak.

+05 Atlanta (2-1) at Miami (1-2)

Falcons chewed up and spit out at home by Carolina last week.

+07 Houston (1-2) at Denver (0-3)

Broncos net first win.

+09 Philadelphia (0-3) vs Pittsburgh (1-2)

Steelers win Battle of Pennsylvania against terrible Eagle defense.

+10 Buffalo (1-1-1) vs Carolina (3-0)

Bills have excellent ground game but Fitzpatrick & Co. can't keep up with Panthers.

+14 Dallas (1-2) vs Washington (2-1)

Aaron Rodgers and the 'Skins get back on winning track.

+19 Cincinnati (1-2) vs San Diego (3-0)

Bengals are playing better than expected but the Chargers are too good.

USAFL Week 3 Point Spreads

Week 2 Accuracy: 91% (11 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 75% (18 out of 24)

+03 New York (N) (2-0) vs Washington (2-0)

Two of the best offenses in the league face off.

+03 Detroit (1-1) vs Green Bay (2-0)

The battle for the NFC Central will be a mess. Must win for all.

+03 Minnesota (0-2) vs Chicago (1-1)

Bears QB Mark Sanchez has started out badly but should do well against Vike defense.

+03 New York (A) (0-2) vs Buffalo (1-1)

Bills brought game in loss against ATL last week. RB Jonathan Stewart has 5.7 yard average. 

+03 Miami (1-1) vs Boston (0-2) 

After tough schedule to start (ATL,CAR), Patriots could start a 3 game winning streak.

+03 Baltimore (0-2) vs San Francisco (2-0)

SanFran Blitzzard keeps cutting through opponents like a buzz saw.

+07 Atlanta (2-0) vs Carolina (2-0)

Falcons upset the Panthers in both matchups last year but the Panthers have improved.

+10 Dallas (1-1) at Pittsburgh (0-2)

Worst start for Pittsburgh since 2009.

+10 Cincinnati (1-1) at Oakland (1-1)

Charger QB Philip Rivers & Co. ripped up the Raiders last week 34-10.

+13 Philadelphia (0-2) at Cleveland (1-1)

Browns stay in the fight for the NFC East but face NYG and WAS the next two weeks.

+16 Houston (1-1) at Kansas City (1-1)

Chiefs should be 2-0. Loss to 14 pt. underdog Cincy in week 1 still puzzles.

+17 Denver (0-2) at San Diego (2-0)

Broncos played KC very close last week but Chargers get revenge for playoff loss.

USAFL Week 2 Point Spreads

Week 1 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)

+01 Cleveland (0-1) at Pittsburgh (0-1)

Steelers bounce back from loss to the eventual conference champ Redskins.

+03 New York (A) (0-1) vs Miami (0-1)

Dolphins get first win. Jets still reeling from domination from Carolina.

+03 Minnesota (0-1) at Detroit (0-1)

Lions embarrassed by the 49ers at opener, could slide to 0-2.

+03 Denver (0-1) vs Kansas City (0-1)

Chiefs did not look like a predicted 12-4 team last week vs Cincy.

+03 Cincinnati (1-0) at Houston (0-1)

Bengals upset Chiefs last week. Could do better than 4-12 expectations.

+07 Chicago (1-0) at San Francisco (1-0)

San Fran whipped Detroit last week, the Bears aren't as talented as the Lions.

+07 Buffalo (1-0) vs Atlanta (1-0)

Great start for the Falcons. The Bills are another warmup until the Panthers next week.

+10 Oakland (1-0) at San Diego (1-0)

Chargers had trouble with lowly Houston last week. The Raiders are better than Houston.

+13 Dallas (1-0) vs New York (N) (1-0)

Ownerless Cowboys beat Cleveland? Giants clash with Redskins next week.

+17 Boston (0-1) at Carolina (1-0)

One game down, eighteen to go for Carolina Panthers, Super Bowl Champions

+17 Baltimore (0-1) at Green Bay (1-0)

Packer QB Cam Newton, 149 QB rating last week, RB Ray Rice 127 yds and a TD.

+21 Philadelphia (0-1) at Washington (1-0)

Eagles get another drubbing.

USAFL Week 1 Point Spreads

The USAFL kicks off another season! Welcome new coaches! Greetings returning coaches! The Dallas Technology Center has predicted a Washington vs Carolina in Super Bowl VIII.

+01 Buffalo vs Miami

Very closely matched teams but Dolphins have the edge.

+05 Pittsburgh vs Washington

Redskins and Giants are favorites in the NFC East. Steelers have a shot at an upset here.

+06 Minnesota at Green Bay

Packers have a superb running game led by RB Ray Rice.

+06 Dallas vs Cleveland

Cowboys are ownerless.

+06 Chicago at Baltimore

Colts could end their 4 year playoff drought.

+06 Boston at Atlanta

Falcons are a better overall team.

+09 San Francisco at Detroit

Expect a bloody division fight in the NFC Central. It's up for grabs.

+09 Denver vs Oakland

Both teams are diminished from 2011 squads but the Raiders still pack a wallop.

+14 Houston at San Diego

Oof! Chargers are going to have a great season.

+14 Cincinnati at Kansas City

Chiefs could make playoffs for first time since 2006.

+14 New York (A) vs Carolina

Panthers will be double digit favorites for most games this season.

+20 Philadelphia at New York (N)

Eagles have lost 7 straight against the Giants. Last win: September 2008

Defense Notes

This year the Dallas Technology Center collected detailed offense and defense data along with the win-loss records of teams while running the simulation of multiple seasons.  

Scoring

The Carolina Panther defense stands out in the league, allowing only 13.2 points per game. Washington is a full 1.5 points behind at 14.7 points per game, followed by San Diego and Cleveland who come in at just under 16 points.

vs Running Game

The Panthers, Falcons and Giants have the top run stuffing defenses along with San Diego and Detroit who are showing a knack for keeping opponents from scoring on the ground.

vs Passing Game

The Cleveland Browns join Carolina with suppressing passing attacks. Carolina appears to have the more balanced air defense while Cleveland gets the job done with superior sack power. Washington and San Diego are among the top passing defenses as well. 

Miscellaneous

Atlanta and Kansas City are the turnover kings.

Best Red Zone teams are Atlanta, Chicago, and Kansas City

Offense Notes

This year the Dallas Technology Center collected detailed offense and defense data along with the win-loss records of teams while running the simulation of multiple seasons. 

Scoring

The New York Giants, Kansas City and San Diego were all ranked in the top 5 teams in points, rushing touchdowns and passing touchdowns. Carolina just missed this group by ranking 6th in Passing TDs.

Running Game

The Green Bay Packers were the strongest in the rushing categories of Yards, TDs, TD% and Average, ranking in the top 3 of all of those categories. Cleveland and Baltimore have powerful running games with the ability to rack up a lot of yards but were not in the Top 5 in the scoring categories.

Passing Game

The Kansas City Chiefs dominated most of the passing game categories, ranking first in 5 out of 14 including the most important ones of TDs and Yards. Oakland, Washington and San Diego were also very strong through the air.

Miscellaneous

Washington is the team least likely to turn the ball over.

San Diego and Green Bay have the best talent for scoring in the Red Zone.

In a damage to their reputation, the Oakland Raiders were the least penalized team on offense.

Carolina vs Washington in Super Bowl VIII?

The Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins edged out San Diego and New York as their respective conference champions. The road to the championship goes through their home fields.

The breakdown...

NFC East

The Redskins and Giants are strong at the top but the Cowboys and Eagles are looking like the two worst teams in the USAFL. Washington has a tough defense, New York has a powerful offense. Cleveland looks improved by Pittsburgh has taken a huge step back, especially on offense.

1. Washington (13-3)

2. New York Giants (12-4)

3. Cleveland (10-6)

4. Pittsburgh (9-7)

5. Dallas (4-12)

6. Philadelphia (3-13)

NFC Central

This division title is up for grabs. Detroit and Baltimore do not have much offense, Green Bay and San Francisco do not have much defense. This will be bloody all the way.

1. Detroit (10-6)

2. Baltimore (9-7)

3. Green Bay (8-8)

4. San Francisco (8-8)

5. Chicago (6-10)

6. Minnesota (5-11)

AFC East

The Panthers won't have much competition for the division, it's the conference where resistance will be tough. Carolina is a much improved team from last year, New York has regressed. The rest of the division are about the same.

1. Carolina (14-2)

2. Atlanta (9-7)

3. Boston (7-9)

4. Miami (7-9)

5. Buffalo (6-10)

6. New York Jets (4-12)

AFC Central

The Chargers have the edge but look at those Chiefs! Launching from 2-14 last year to 12-4 and a very good chance at a wild card slot, at least...maybe the division? One caveat: they were expected to win 6 last year. Raiders are about the same but the rest of 'em: Broncos, Houston, Cincinnati - big dropoff.

1. San Diego (13-3)

2. Kansas City (12-4)

3. Oakland (11-5)

4. Denver (6-10)

5. Houston (4-12)

6. Cincinnati (4-12)

Details First Round Simulations

The DTC had a request to post details from the simulation run using players from Round 1.

NFC East

1. Washington (13-3)

2. New York Giants (11-5)

3. Pittsburgh (10-6)

4. Cleveland (9-7)

5. Dallas (6-10)

6. Philadelphia (2-14)

NFC Central

1. Detroit (12-4)

2. Baltimore (10-6)

3. Green Bay (9-7)

4. Chicago (6-10)

5. Minnesota (5-11)

6. San Francisco (4-12)

AFC East

1. Carolina (15-1)

2. Atlanta (10-6)

3. Buffalo (7-9)

4. Boston (7-9)

5. Miami (7-9)

6. New York Jets (5-11)

AFC Central

1. San Diego (13-3)

2. Kansas City (11-5)

3. Oakland (10-6)

4. Houston (5-11)

5. Cincinnati (3-13)

6. Denver (3-13)

Carolina Is Big Favorite for Championship

It looks like the Carolina Panthers will be favorite for USAFL Champions for the 2012-2013 season. The DTC ran several seasons of simulations including the first round draft picks on their respective teams and the numbers show that a perfect season is very possible 

for Tony Romo and Julius Peppers and friends. One caveat is that the Panthers lost 3 more games than expected last season including puzzling losses to Miami (5-11) and Kansas City (2-14), going 8-8 resulting in a poor grade from the DTC. 

AFC East

The Panthers will devour all AFC East Division opponents and easily when the division. They will be double digit favorites against most teams, including the next best team in the AFC, San Diego. Their week 11 matchup will be huge. 

AFC Central

It will be more competitive in the other AFC division with Kansas City, Oakland and San Diego beating on each other with the Chargers the ultimate victor. Latest numbers show them with a 13-3 record. SD vs CAR for the AFC Championship.

NFC East

The Washington Redskins at 13-3 are looking very good to take this division and fight expected AFC Central Champ Detroit for the NFC Championship. New York Giants (11-5) and Pittsburgh (10-6) are in the mix for the wild card slot.

NFC Central

Detroit Lions are still looking sharp for taking this division, going 12-4 with Baltimore and Green Bay showing 10-6 records. However, the Lions, like the Panthers, also severely underperformed last year getting a 'D' going 8-8 when 12-4 was expected. A challenge from either the Ravens or Green Bay is very possible...especially from the Packers.

Final Pre-season Predictions Post-Draft! Stay Tuned!

Carolina Panthers in 2012?

Pre-Draft Report from the Dallas Technology Center. Teams within a tier are comparable to each other, listed in alphabetical order. Basically, a high ranked tier team should be able to defeat a team from a lower ranked tier but have a 50-50 chance of defeating a team within the same tier.

Tier 1:  Carolina, Detroit, San Diego

Tier 2:  Boston, Kansas City, New York Giants, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Washington

Tier 3: Baltimore, Buffalo, Cleveland, Dallas, Green Bay, New York Jets

Tier 4: Atlanta, Denver, Minnesota, San Francisco

Tier 5: Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, Miami, Philadelphia

USAFL 2011 Grades

Here's the scorecard for the USAFL teams comparing the actual season results against the pre-season simulation numbers. The first two columns are rankings based on win-loss records. The Off Act/Sim and Def Act/Sim columns are the actual and simulation rankings for offense and defense based on points scored and points scored against. The number in parentheses is the difference. A negative number shows less than expected, a positive number shows better than expected.

Super Bowl: Oakland Raiders vs New York Giants

The long 2011 season is finally coming to a close and two teams are left standing to face off. It's Giants vs Raiders. On August 15, 2011, an entry entitled "Raider Nation Reigns" was entered into this blog. I expected Oakland to emerge from the top teams in the AFC including San Diego, Carolina and Denver. The NFC was more muddled and I avoided any bold predictions for that champion. Pittsburgh and Detroit, closely followed by Washington, emerged as the favorites. Eventual division champs Green Bay and New York were both predicted to go 9-7 but went 11-5 and 13-3 respectively.

The Giants were the #1 seed on the NFC side and took out Washington 28-6 and Green Bay 31-24 on their way to the Big Show. The Raiders crushed Atlanta 34-16 and Denver 47-13 in the playoffs.

New York Giants (15-3) +6 vs Oakland Raiders (14-4)

The Dallas Technology Center ran 40 simulated games between the Giants and Raiders and spit out NYG +6. Honestly, I was surprised it was that low. It does give me hope although the Raiders defeated their playoff opponents by an average of 24.5 points compared to the DTC prediction of 10 points. Here are the matchups:

NYG Offense vs OAK Defense

Although the Giant offense is only 10th in passing yards and 12th in rushing yards, they have had success scoring, averaging 25.4 points per game (ranked 4th in the league). QB Josh Freeman (3,034 yds, 28 tds, 5 int, 16 sacks, 63.3% completion, 101.1 rating) runs the offense, throwing primarily to WR Hakeem Nicks (81 catches, 15 tds) with Mario Manningham (62 catches, 8 tds) and Percy Harvin (64 catches, 4 tds) sharing the #2 WR role. Felix Jones is Da Man at RB (958 yds, 4.3avg, 5 tds).

The matchup with the Raider defense is interesting. They are 5th in points allowed, averaging 17 a game. The secondary, led by CB Nnamdi Asomugha and S Ed Reed, are very effective at suppressing the air games of opponents, ranking in the top 7 of most pass defense categories. Opponents pass against them quite a bit but they don't get very far - 10.2 yds per completion. That's 2nd in the league. They sack (29), they pick (14), they defense (58.4 completion %). If there is a vulnerability, it is on the ground where they are...average. However, an opponent is usually forced to abandon ground games because the Raider offense keeps the heat on which lets me segue into...

OAK Offense vs NYG Defense

Ugh. This is where I'm gonna get queasy. Let me just rattle a few names off, maybe you've heard of 'em: Tom Brady, Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, and Darren McFadden. These Raiders put more catches on the field in basic formation than most teams can put in 3-,4-,5-WR formations. The Giants give up a lot of yards in the air (211 per game, ranked 16th) although they also know how to intercept (19) and sack (32). Sackmaster LB Cameron Wake led the league 17. They are decent against the run but McFadden has a 5.8 average (not to mention 914 yds and 6 tds), boosted no doubt by defense focusing on Brady (3,685 yds, 30 tds, 11 int, 14 sacks, 65.4% completion, 98.6 rating).

Conference Championships Point Spreads

NFC Championship Game: Green Bay Packers +8 at New York Giants

AFC Championship Game: Denver Broncos +9 at Oakland Raiders

Conference Semi: DEN @ SD

1. New York Giants (13-3)

2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3) Lost to Green Bay 31-21

4. Washington Redskins (12-4)

5. San Francisco 49ers (8-8) Lost to Washington 31-16

 

1. San Diego Chargers (14-2)

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7) Lost to Oakland 34-16

3. Oakland Raiders (12-4)

4. Denver Broncos (11-5)

5. Houston Oilers (10-6) Lost to Denver 31-20

 

Denver (12-5) +8 at San Diego (14-2)

 

The Chargers have a significant lead in overall matchups posting a 10-3 record over Denver since 2007, when John Conners took over the Broncos, including two playoff games and both games this season. However, the Broncos came into their own last year, sweeping the San Diego in the regular season and then defeating them in the AFC Championship game ultimately losing to Green Bay in the Super Bowl.

 

DEN Offense vs SD Defense

The Broncos have a powerful ground game with the #2 RB in the league Chris Johnson (1,542 yds, 11 tds, 4.8 avg) which sets up an efficient passing attack led by the two headed dragon of  QB Jon Kitna (2,567 yds, 66% completion, 21 tds, 5 ints, 104.7 rating) and Jason Campbell (2,191 yds, 63.7%, 18 tds, 7 ints, 97.4 rating). By QB rating, these are the #3 and #7 QBs in the league. WR Reggie Wayne is the primary passing target (98 catches, 15 tds, 15.3 yds/catch). TE Vernon Davis is a distance second on the reception chart with 58 which makes rotates a lot of attention onto Wayne. They are only #8 in scoring. That's not bad but it isn't good enough against the top defense in land.

 

San Diego only allows 14.6 points a game. They are similiar to the Washington Redskins - a powerful offense puts pressure on the opposition to go to the air and the defense grounds it. 34 sacks, 14 picks led by DE Dwight Freeney (11 sacks) and CB Eric Weddle (4 interceptions). After squeaking by Denver in week 3, 35-31, they shut them out in week 12, 23-zip, allowing only 100 yards offense.

 

SD Offense vs DEN Defense

And if a crushing defense wasn't impossible enough to deal with, Denver has to face one of the top passing offenses in the league featuring QB Philip Rivers (4,171 yds, 37 tds, 8 ints) and WRs Larry Fitzgerald (68 catches, 6 tds) and Jennings (58 receptions, 11 tds). Thousand yard rusher Arian Foster (1,070 yds, 6 tds, 4.1 avg) provides plenty of distraction to keep defenses honest on the ground. In spite of not having a great run defense (#14, allowing 110 yds a game), the Bronco defense was able to contain Foster in both games...but not Rivers. Denver looks very bad against the pass, with only a few pass defense categories barely ranked #10 with most, like pass yards allowed, yards per completion, pass interception and sack percentages, #18 or higher. Of course, if your division has Tom Brady and Philip Rivers, your pass defense statistics are bound to not look too hot.

 

The Broncos may put up a good game but will eventually succomb to the eventual Super Bowl champ, the mighty San Diego Chargers.