USAFL Week 1 Point Spreads

+03 Pittsburgh (0-0) at Washington (0-0)

Curiously, Steeler offense only ranked 10th in simulation.

 

+03 Miami (0-0) vs Buffalo (0-0)

Could be highpoint of the season for the team that wins.

+03 Atlanta (0-0) at Boston (0-0)

Falcons play the Patriots closer this season.

+04 New York (A) (0-0) at Carolina (0-0)

Jet's must take both Panther games as do-or-die for playoffs.

+06 Detroit (0-0) at San Francisco (0-0)

Re-emergent Lions get out-coached.

 

+7 Kansas City (0-0) at Cincinnati (0-0)

Bengals attack Powwow of Chiefs - snack heavily. 

 

+08 Minnesota (0-0) vs Green Bay (0-0)

Cheeseheads extend regular season consecutive win streak to 26.

+09 Baltimore (0-0) at Chicago (0-0)

Bears are improved from last season.

+07 Dallas (0-0) at Cleveland (0-0)

Browns should double their wins of last year (4), starting now.

+10 Denver (0-0) at Oakland (0-0)

Broncos swept the Raiders a combined 47-6 last season. Payback time.

+10 Philadelphia (0-0) vs New York (N) (0-0)

Eagles are grounded.

 

+14 Houston (0-0) vs San Diego (0-0)

The Chargers will be double digit favorites for many games this season.

Point Spread Generator

This is the main screen from Dallas Tech Center's Point Spread Generator. Click on it to zoom. This shows a post season report of Green Bay from last year. This season I am tinkering with the formula in an attempt to improve my ability to pick winners which has held steady at around 70%. If you yahoos would just coach like the boring computer, I would be picking at 95%. But noooooo, you have to be creative. So, here's to another great USAFL season and a 5-10% improvement from the DTC.

What? You thought those spreads were just pulled out of a hat?

Raider Nation Reigns

The Oakland Raiders have emerged, narrowly, as the pre-season favorite to be the USAFL Champs for the 2011 season. Mike Chase has been Coach/General Manager for the Raiders since the league inception but has led the team to the playoffs once: a wild card loss to the Jets in 2008. That was also the only year Oakland won more than 50% of its games and the only year it has had double digit wins, going 10-6. Raider Nation exists in a tough division usually dominated by San Diego and Denver who went 13-3 and 14-2 last year, respectively. The road to the division crown and, ultimately, the Super Bowl will be via the two OAK-SD contests.

 

Results based on 20 simulated seasons using the official schedule.

 

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh (11-5) Has won division 4 out of 6 seasons

2. Washington (10-6) Great chance taking division back-to-back

3. New York Giants (9-7) In the mix. 

3. Cleveland (9-7) Browns could make things interesting in division this season.

5. Dallas (7-9) Second year in a row finishing below 50%

6. Philadelphia (4-12) Long playoff drought for the Eagles.

 

NFC Central

1. Detroit (11-5) Lions spring out of years of mediocrity?

2. Green Bay (9-7) Defending SB Champs have gone 28-4 over past two seasons.

3. Baltimore (8-8) George Watt brings the Colts back.

4. Chicago (7-9) Two seasons in a row to miss the playoffs?

5. San Francisco (6-10) Frank Aluzzi took a 1-15 team to 13-3 in two years.

6. Minnesota (4-12) 12-4 -> 7-9 -> 4-12. Vikes Yikes!

 

AFC East

1. Carolina (11-5) Less competitive inter-division this season.

2. New York Jets (9-7) 4x the wins of last season but playoff slot will be tough to get.

3. Boston (7-9) Too bad. Last season went 11-5 and playoffs for best season ever.

3. Atlanta (7-9) Perennial playoff team not looking that great.

5. Buffalo (4-12) Bob Durfee's second season with franchise. Can he turn this team around?

6. Miami (3-13) Odd. Team has some talent, hard to believe only 3 wins.

 

AFC Central

1. Oakland (13-3) Weeks 2 and 14 vs SD baby!

2. San Diego (12-4) Defense! Stomp, stomp! Defense! Stomp, stomp!

3. Denver (10-6) Crushed by OAK in week 1, squeaks by OAK in week 16.

4. Houston (8-8) Tim Moore get Oiler well productive again.

5. Cincinnati (6-10) Richard Robb took them from 4-12 to 9-7 but this is a setback.

5. Kansas City (6-10) Far from playoffs but 6 wins are better than only 1 from last year.

Pre-Season Update

As soon as the official season schedule is added, I will create a new pre-season prediction based on simulations using it.

 

As I went through the prior results, I found a couple of issues that affected the results. I run multiple simulations with computer generated schedule, depth charts, lineups and coaching templates so I rely heavily on the software to be consistent on what it does.

 

1. The computer generated schedule included 5 duplicate games. A team played the same out-of-division opponent twice. It didn't even alternate home and away teams.

 

2. I found at least one instance where the software generated formation preferences in the Gameplan did not make sense for the personnel on the team.

 

#1 won't be a problem with the official schedule. #2 will require me to manually check every Computer Generated GamePlan unless Dave changes the program.

 

 

 

SD or OAK or CAR vs PIT or DET or NYG

If the simulation results from the Dallas Technology Center's labs are any indication, the USAFL 2011 season promises to be a bloody battle for the championship. The average wins of the top 3 teams in each conference are within 1 game of each other. For the AFC: San Diego, Oakland and Carolina; for the NFC: Pittsburgh, Detroit and New York (Giants).

 

The Chargers averaged the most wins over a simulation of 40 (yes FORTY) seasons, going 13-3. The Raiders and Panthers were right behind with 12-4 records. The AFC Central is easily the most dominate division in the league with 4 out of 6 teams expected to finish with winning records: SD (13-3), OAK (12-4), HOU (10-6) and DEN (9-7). The other teams with winning records in the conference are CAR (12-4) and NYJ (9-7).

 

The Steelers, Lions and Giants all averaged 11-5 records. Green Bay and Cleveland are the next tier with 9-7 records.

 

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh (11-5) Steelers have never finished below 11-5.

1. New York Giants (11-5) Shot at first division crown.

3. Cleveland (9-7) Well, hello Browns! First winning season ever.

4. Washington (8-8) Defending division champ is a great spoiler.

5. Dallas (7-9) Cowboys endure a second down year.

6. Philadelphia (3-13) Eagles still grounded.

 

NFC Central

1. Detroit (11-5) Lion Country rejoice! First time visit to the playoffs!

2. Green Bay (9-7) SB Champs have won 25 consecutive regular season games.

3. Baltimore (7-9) Progress in Pony Town.

3. San Francisco (7-9) Blitz-happy over-achiever to 13-3 last season.

5. Chicago (6-10) Two seasons in a row to miss the playoffs?

6. Minnesota (5-11) Whazzup with the Vikings.

 

AFC East

1. Carolina (12-4) Division title should not be any trouble.

2. New York Jets (9-7) Could squeak out a playoff slot.

3. Boston (8-8) Chance at playoffs, needs to out coach NYJ and HOU.

4. Atlanta (7-9) First time to miss playoffs in 5 years

5. Buffalo (5-11) Uptick 2 wins since last season but needs a lot more work.

6. Miami (3-13) Dolphins remain underwater. One of only 3 teams never to make playoffs.

 

AFC Central

1. San Diego (13-3) #1 Offense + #2 Defense = Super Bowl

2. Oakland (12-4) Matchups vs SD will be games to watch

3. Houston (10-6) First winning season in franchise history?

4. Denver (9-7) Superior coaching will put wins into double digits.

5. Cincinnati (6-10) Setback from nice improvement (9-7) last season.

5. Kansas City (6-10) Lianos reviving Chiefs from the dead.