Review of Top Ten 2008 TTFBA Picks

It's a year later. How are teams feeling about their first round draft picks from last season? Any surprises? Any studs turned to duds? Any reaches turned to peaches? Let's take a look.   1. Joe Thomas, OT, Death Valley Thomas, the 3rd pick of the NFL draft was a 9 rating last year and a 9 rating this year. An excellent choice for the Demons.   2. Adrian Peterson, RB, Philadelphia What do you do when you have two thousand yard rushers in your backfield? Why, draft another one, of course. The Liberty had several areas of need but none of the talent rated a 2nd overall pick. Peterson had back-to-back thousand yard seasons with at least 10 touchdowns.   3. Patrick Willis, ILB, Dayton The rookie Pro Bowler dropped from a 10 to a 9 but that doesn't diminish the quality of the Dragons' pick.   4. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Knoxville Lynch had a few less yards but added a TD (from 7 to 8) and significantly improved his reception numbers (18 to 47) and went to the Pro Bowl. He'll have a dip next year because of a 3 game suspension because of an arrest on a gun charge. Hopefully, this is not a preview of things to come and cause Knoxville to regret this pick.   5. John Beason, ILB, Real Charleston The Galacticos couldn't pass on 8 rated Beason in the draft and he rewarded them by improving to a 9.   6. Darrell Reavis, CB, San Pedro (Corsairs) Reavis jumped from a 7 to a 9. Fantastic pick by the Corsairs.   7. Ryan Grant, RB, Steeltown The undrafted NFL surprise rookie, Grant took a step back his 2nd season. Although he got 1,203 yds, up from 956; his average dropped precipitously from 5.1 to 3.9. His TD production halved from 8 to 4 and he caught fewer passes. Fortunately, the Roughcut have Larry Johnson and Ernest Graham on board but could have some concern for the future of Mr. Grant.   8. Calvin Johnson, WR, Mt. Pilot Johnson was a bit of a disappointment his rookie year in the NFL. The 2nd overall pick only caught 48 passes and there were whispers that he might be a bust for Detroit. But he blossomed  the next season and caught 78 passes and tripled his TDs from 4 to 12. Excellent pick for the Gamblers.   9. LaRon Landry, S, Transylvania  Landry turned out to be a solid pick for the Evil Dead, improving his rating from 7 to 8 and snatching his first two interceptions.   10. Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Dallas Have to take responsibility of this one. I purposely passed up 70 catch Dwayne Bowe for 37 catch Gonzalez because 1) Gonzalez is a Colt and Bowe is a Chief and I thought a Colt WR would be a better long term investment than a Chief WR, especially with the issues they had at QB. and 2) I figured Marvin Harrison was close to, if not already, done at Indy because of age and his magical pistol floating away and firing itself. Although Gonzalez improved to 57 receptions and is now the #2 guy, Bowe continued to shine and caught 86 passes. And his future looks even more promising with Matt Cassel becoming his QB. If I had to do it again - definitely Bowe.   So, there it is. Very good picks by every team with the exception of Steeltown and Dallas.

Analysis: Don't Guess

Don't Guess Run or Pass Unless You Know   A bit of methodology before showing a sample. Any play that is not Basic is considered a "guess". Run vs Run, Pass vs Pass is counted as a correct guess. A run key on the wrong RB is counted as incorrect as is a double team on a receiver that was not the QB's target.   We could take any number of games as a sample but Steeltown at NW Missouri in week 6 of last season is a good one. This was a clash of two powerhouses: the Roughcut were undefeated at 5-0 and the Rednecks were 5-1, their only loss to Super Bowl winner Tillman.   Over the course of the game, Steeltown called 57 offensive plays. NW Missouri called a defense that was run or pass specific for 51 plays, the other 6 defensive calls were Basic.  Of those 51 "guesses", 39 were correct; that is, if Steeltown was running, NW Missouri called a run defense, same for passing. So NW Missouri called the correct defense 68% of the time against Steeltown. Let's call them educated guesses since the success rate was significantly more than the 50% one would expect.   NW Missouri called 62 offensive plays. Steeltown guessed 51 times. However, they were correct only 9 times. The Roughcut guessed 82% of the time and were correct only 17% of the time or 14.5% overall.   Who do you think won the game? NW Missouri 27, Steeltown 21. In a competitive game like this play calling can tilt the balance of power.   To be fair, NW Missouri was up 24-zip at half time so it doesn't take a rocket scientist or DTC savant to predict the play calling in the second half. So, let's just look at the first quarter...   Steeltown called 14 plays on offense, NW Missouri guessed run/pass on 13 of those and was correct 9 times. NW Missouri called 14 on offense, Steeltown guessed 85% of the time or 12 plays of the 14. The number of plays called against the correct offense? 0. Now, 3 of the guesses were double teams against a pass play but the incorrect receiver was doubled so one could argue that the defensive coordinator at least knew the opponent was going to the air. But, still, that leaves 9 plays where the defense was set up for a run (in this case keying on Michael Westbrook) and the offense threw a pass or the defense was in pass coverage (usually double teaming Tony Gonzalez) and an RB is given the ball. The Rednecks scored two touchdowns in that quarter.   It hurts your team when you call the wrong defense. Those coaches whose teams are in the playoffs year after year aren't "guessing" as much as they appear to be. There's a reason why they are there. Talent is a huge part of success but a random defensive strategy can marginalize even the most talent laden teams.   There is an argument for assuming some risk for the big play. But that analysis would be another article.

Closed for the Star Trek Holiday

The Dallas Technology Center will be closed on Friday, May 8th to celebrate the release of the new Star Trek movie. Several scientists are getting their old uniforms out of mothballs and will be wearing them to the opening.   To Boldly Go...