2009 Grades

Commish Retirement

Our esteemed Commissioner is retiring after 10 seasons on the job. The DTC has posted a non-binding poll for seeing what owners/coaches we think would make good Commishioners. Please vote. More than one selection is allowed so pick all the guys you think would make good Commishioners for an ActionPC football league.

Super Bowl : Donelson Warriors vs Fresno Outlaws

So, right off the bat: Does Fresno even have a chance against Donelson? Answer: Yes. Is it likely? Answer: No. Very unlikely, in fact. Here are the facts: Fresno Offense vs Donelson Defense The 12.4 points allowed by the Donelson defense puts them among the top 10 defenses of all time in the TTFBA. Their lineup is a Who's Who of defensive players. The basic 4-3 defense that the Warriors deploy 68% of the time is rated 1st overall, run, rush, interceptions and sacks. In pass defense points they are 2nd by only 1 point to Real Charleston. The defense points overwhelm the blocking capability of the Outlaws. Fresno's blocking points are ranked 13th for the run and 19th protecting the QB. But QB Donovan McNabb is among the best QBs in the league and his INT and sack numbers are very low. WR Roddy White is his primary target (95 receptions, 11 TDs) followed by TE Owen Daniels (71 receptions, 6 TDs). RB Maurice Jones-Drew is the primary rusher with an unimpressive 3.9 average but an impressive 15 TDs, the top RB scorer in the league. Fresno has the 2nd ranked scoring offense in the league behind only Donelson, scoring 27.4 points per game. They consume a lot of real estate, especially through the air so the clash between these teams when Fresno has the ball should be exciting. Donelson Offense vs Fresno Defense Fresno's primary platoon is 3-4 which they use 38% of the time. Half of the time they are in a Nickel, Dime or Quarter defense, as the offense scores so much that opposing offenses are constantly in catchup mode. The talent is average, the highest area of rating points in pass defense points where they rank 7th with 36. But they are aggressive and cause teams to turn the ball over - a total of 39 times, the best in the league. But they are vulnerable on the ground. RB Derrick Ward leads the best running game in the league. QB Philip Rivers, the best QB in the league spreads the wealth among a receiving corps containing 4 WRs and 2 TEs that have starter reception counts. It's such a target rich environment that there is a Warrior WR is not among the top 25 in receptions. Antonio Bryant comes in 26th with 69 receptions. On top of the best running game and the best passing game, they also have on of the best offensive lines in the league. The beef they have gives them 41 pass protection points, which is THE best in the league. They are 4th for run blocking. However, if there is a weakness in Donelson, it is their propensity to turn the ball over which they did 20 times during the season. Philips is the main culprit, he threw 13 interceptions and fumbled 6 times. Ward only had one fumble. Backup RB Ricky Williams had 4 so maybe Tashard Choice would be the best guy to give Ward a breather. Donelson only turned it over once during 2 post season games and that was against Wausau, who didn't blitz very much. Denver, their other post season opponent, came after Philips several times with no luck and no turnovers. Final Analysis Donelson by 13. Final score: DON 27, FRE 14

Colossus Predicts the BCS Championship Game

In a simulation of 20 games, the Texas Longhorns won 14 (70%) of them.   Predicted score: Texas 34, Alabama 31

#1 Fresno Outlaws (+2) vs #2 Tillman Rangers

The Outlaws lost at the Rangers in week 11, 27-10, when a close 10-6 Fresno lead collapsed in the 4th quarter. A fumbled punt attempt, a 50 yard TD pass and a 59 yard TD run in the fnal 8 minutes resulted in a score that does not reflect how close the game should've been. Maybe this week...   Fresno Offense vs Tillman Defense Fresno is second only to the Donelson Warriors on offense but they rely on their passing game led by QB Donovan McNabb, WR Roddy White and TE Owen Daniels. Their ground game was ranked 18th in yards. This is an offense that plays to the strength of the Rangers' defense, who are among the best at shutting down opposing QBs. They are average against the run but it works because their offense is built on the run, eating up the clock, which forces opponents' offense to go to the air.   Dallas Gladiator RB Steve Slaton put up 118 yds against Tillman last week. The Gladiators aren't a big run team as well. If RB Maurice Jones-Drew can have a decent game perhaps Fresno can maintain their scoring power.   Tillman Offense vs Fresno Defense This is not pretty at all. One of the best rushing offenses (RB Ronnie Brown, RB Chester Taylor) against one of the worst defenses against the run. But the Rangers don't have the greatest passing game (QB David Garrard) and the Outlaws aggressive style could result in turnovers. But they seemed to be blitzing when the Rangers were running which allows big chunks on the ground. Tillman is dangerous in 3WR sets with T.J. Houshmandsadeh, Dwayne Bowe and and Lance Moore. Tillman had no turnovers in the week 11 game and didn't cough up the ball much during the season. Can the Outlaws make something happen?

#2 Wausau Blue Bombers (+16) @ #1 Donelson Warriors

Please leave a comment or send me an email if you read this. You can give a review if you want but I'm really just wanting an idea how many actually read this besides the competing teams (assuming they do. They DO, don't they???). Make it a one worder: "Read." "Sucked." "Awesome", I don't care. Just read it, baby, read it. Thanks, I'd appreciate that. These playoff ones take about an hour to do. I get into it but I don't have to get into it THAT much. Thanks. (Signed: the DTC Geeks of Predictology).   So, here we have the 2009 TTFBA Champions playing the upstart Blue Bombers. A team that we could've crowned weeks ago against a team that just refused to go away the entire season. Unfortunately, that courageous run is coming to an end with this game.   Wausau (10-6) advanced to this game with an upset of New England, 30-18. Brett Favre and the coaching staff were all kissy-kissy because he happily allowed RB Steven Jackson to carry the ball 28 times, only the second time this season Jackson had that many touches. His average was not spectacular (3.5) and he didn't score but he was enough of a distraction (99 yds, 4 first downs) that he factored into New England's defensive game plan with constant keying. Favre's trust in the defensive coordinator paid off because he had his most efficient outing for the season going 14 for 18, 198 yds, 0 interceptions and 2 TD passes, both of them to Larry Fitzgerald on short slants of 26 and 41 yds while New England keyed on Jackson.   Donelson (16-0) made it here with a pick fest over Denver's Chad Pennington (8 of 19, 83 yds, 3 ints, 1 td, 30.6 qb rating). All 3 interceptions led to Warrior touchdowns, making up 21 of the 37 points in the 37-7 drubbing. The Dynamite did not go down with some fireworks though. Down 13-zip with 3:23 left in the 1st quarter, they marched down to their only score basically on RB Adrian Peterson's back (22 carries, 52 yds,  2.4 avg, no touchdowns) on a 19 play drive featuring 3, count 'em 3 successful 4th down attempts. 13 of Peterson's carries for the game came on this drive. Pennington connected with TE Tony Gonzalez for the TD closing the game to 13-7 midway through the 2nd quarter. But by the end of the half, Donelson had pulled away 27-7 thanks to a pair of painfully pathetic Pennington passes. (Thank you, thank you - I hear the groans.)   Donelson Offense vs Wausau Defense   I've put off as long as I can. Like I said in the Denver-Donelson pre-game write-up, the Warriors are the best offensive team in the league. You don't stop them. They average 36.3 points per game. Look at those scores during the season, no one has kept them below...wait, wait a second. Trivia question: What team was the only one to keep Donelson under 21 points this season.   Answer: The Wausau Blue Bombers. What on earth? The 20-13 Wausau loss in week 10 was the closest game Donelson had the entire season. How do 23 point underdogs only lose by 7? Are these guys buds or something? Did Donelson take it easy on the Blue Bombers, loading up the ack-ack with squaw feathers instead of sending the Warriors of the tribe to take care of business? It doesn't look like it.   Donelson, perhaps noting Wausau's studly run defense (2nd in the league, allowing only 75.6 yds per game) choose to make it an air game, relying on QB Philip Rivers to have the honors. Less than 2 minutes in - Donelson is up 7 zip. But the defense hangs in there. The only TD scored by the offense was that first drive. The other TD was from a 98 yard kick return in the 4th quarter.   A lot of the credit must go to the Blue Bomber offense, who helped the defense by keeping the ball as long as possible (39 minutes).  Still, the Warrior offense averages 3.8 touchdowns per game, holding them to just one is quite a feat.   The pass defense just isn't there. If Donelson gets enough drives, the bows and arrows of the Warriors are going to bring down Bombers.     Wausau Offense vs Donelson Defense   Ugh. Once again, a stat comparison jumped out at me checking out when Wausau has the ball. This is one of the very worst red zone scoring teams going up against one of the very best red zone defenses. Larry Fitzgerald will take it home from anywhere on the field. You better not be mesmerized by 3.5 yarder Stephen Jackson and let Fitzgerald rip you up. But one has no idea when that's going to happen.   But the Donelson defense suppresses run and passes equally awesomely (awkwardly presentedly I know). They only allowed 12.4 points per game. Wausau, nor any other team are going anywhere against this defense. It's surprising 4 teams scored more than 21 points on them.   I just don't see how Jackson gets another 100 yds against the Warrior defense. In the week 10 game, run stuffer DL Richard Seymour (8 rating) was out along with starting CB Rashean Mathis (8 rating). The simulations show a score of 30-14. I don't know how Wausau scores two field goals, must less two touchdowns.