Week 15 Point Spreads and Playoff Situation

Week 14 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%) Season Accuracy: 112 out of 168 (66%) The weighted spreads are in parentheses. +01 (-01) Great Lakes (7-7) at Steeltown (6-8) +01 (+01) North Carolina (3-11) vs San Pedro(C) (3-11) +01 (+01) Death Valley (4-10) vs San Diego (6-8) +02 (-01) Denver (10-4) at Tillman (10-4) +04 (+04) Montcalm (9-5) vs Hermitage (9-5) +05 (+01) NW Missouri (4-10) vs San Pedro(B) (7-7) +06 (+04) Mt. Pilot (5-9) vs SoCal (3-11) +06 (+03) Knoxville (5-9) at New England (8-6) +08 (+10) Transylvania (4-10) vs Wausau (9-5) +08 (+06) Nashville (6-8) at Fresno (12-2) +12 (+11) Dallas (11-3) at Real Charleston (8-6) +15 (+18) Dayton (5-9) vs Donelson (14-0) Payton Conference Playoff Situation Donelson (14-0). Has clinched division and home field throughout the playoffs. New England (8-6). Has clinched division. Wausau (9-5). Has clinched division. Denver (10-4). Has clinched a wild card spot. Hermitage (9-5). Has clinched a wild card spot. San Pedro B (7-7). Clinches a wild card spot with a win. Knoxville (5-9). Needs to win out and SPB to lose out. Mt. Pilot (5-9). Needs to win out, KNX to lose one, SPB to lose out and must score 94 more points in the last 2 games than SPB. Simpson Conference Playoff Situation Fresno (12-2). Has clinched division. Dallas (11-3). Has clinched division. Tillman (10-4). Has clinched a wild card slot. A wins clinches the division. Montcalm (9-5). Has clinched a wild card slot (at least). Real Charleston (8-6). Has clinched a wild card slot. Great Lakes (7-7). Still alive. Winning out would seal a slot. Steeltown (6-8). Still alive. Nashville (6-8). Still alive. San Diego (6-8). Still alive. Tillman has the tie-breaker over Montcalm if they tie, even if Montcalm defeats Tillman in the last week because Tillman has the better division record. Should Real Charleston lose out, it has the tie-breaker over Steeltown (head-to-head), Nashville (common opponents) and San Diego (common opponents). I'd like to give a shout out to my fellow Taylor division mates. All of us are technically still in the playoff run with only 2 games left. Taylor division rocks!

Week 14 Point Spreads

Week 13 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%) Season Accuracy: 103 out of 156 (66%) Weighted spreads are in parentheses. +1 (+4) SoCal (3-10) vs Wausau (8-5) +3 (+1) Dallas (10-3) at Great Lakes (7-6) +4 (+4) Fresno (11-2) at Real Charleston (8-5) +5 (+1) Transylvania (4-9) at New England (7-6) +5 (+2) Knoxville (4-9) at San Pedro(B) (7-6) +6 (+4) Mt. Pilot (5-8) at NW Missouri (3-10) +6 (+8) North Carolina (3-10) at Montcalm (8-5) +8 (+3) Nashville (6-7) vs San Diego (5-8) +9 (+12) San Pedro(C) (3-10) at Hermitage (8-5) +10 (+10) Dayton (5-8) at Tillman (9-4) +10 (+9) Death Valley (4-9) vs Steeltown (5-8) +12 (+11) Denver (10-3) vs Donelson (13-0)

Week 13 Point Spreads

Week 12 Accuracy: 7 out of 12 (58%) Season Accuracy: 94 out of 144 (65%)   This week we introduce a weighted point spread based on how teams fared against the basic point spread in prior games. If the weighted spread is less than the basic spread, it means the underdog coach has done better against the spread than the favored coach. If the weighted spread is higher, then the favored coach has done better. If the weighted spread is the same, then both coaches have had similiar success against the spread.   Consider the weighted spread to be experimental at this point, the formula may be adjusted based on results. Weighted spreads are in parentheses.   +2 (+6)  San Pedro(C) (2-10) vs Montcalm (8-4) +3 (+5)  Dayton (5-7) at Denver (9-3) +4 (+4)  Great Lakes (8-4) vs Real Charleston (7-5) +5 (+1)  Transylvania (4-8) at San Pedro(B) (6-6) +5 (+7)   Death Valley (4-8) at Dallas (9-3) +6 (+11) San Diego (4-8) vs Fresno (10-2) +8 (+8)  Tillman (8-4) at Hermitage (8-4) +8 (+8)   NW Missouri (3-9) at Knoxville (3-9) +9 (+7)   SoCal (3-9) vs New England (6-6) +10 (+7) Nashville (5-7) vs Steeltown (5-7) +12 (+13) Mt. Pilot (5-7) at Wausau (7-5) +16 (+20) North Carolina (3-9) at Donelson (12-0)

Week 12 Point Spreads

Week 11 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%) Season Accuracy: 87 out of 132 (66%)   +2 SoCal (3-8) at Knoxville (2-9) New guy at SoCal had to play against Donelson in first game. Ouch. But has a shot against the Smokies. +2 Wausau (6-5) vs San Pedro(B) (6-5) The Bulldogs won the first matchup in week 3 but look for an upset this week. The 2nd place team in this division may not make the wildcard spot. Both should consider this a must win, especially Wausau. +2 Great Lakes (7-4) at San Diego (4-7) The Midshipmen dominated time of possession in week 3 (37 minutes) keeping Peyton Manning off the field who threw for only 86 yds. +3 North Carolina (3-8) vs Tillman (7-4) The Rangers were upset in week 3 but can't afford a repeat since they are in a tight fight with Montcalm for the division.  +7 NW Missouri (3-8) at Transylvania (3-8) Coach NoShows. +8 Denver (8-3) at San Pedro(C) (2-9) Hmmm. Interesting spread when you look at those records. But the Corsairs have lost 6 they were supposed to win, the Dynamite have won 3 they were supposed to lose. +9 Death Valley (4-7) at Fresno (9-2) Outlaws still control division in spite of loss to Tillman last week. +9 Steeltown (5-6) vs Real Charleston (6-5) Need to think playoffs here - a win is critical. +11 Mt. Pilot (4-7) vs New England (6-5) A Gambler upset here would put them just a game behind NE. But don't count on it. +11 Dayton (5-6) at Montcalm (7-4) The Dragons are well-coached and have several upsets but 11 points will be tough to overcome. +12 Nashville (4-7) at Dallas (9-2) The Force played tough in a week 3 loss. The Gladiators are glad they are the home team in this one. +13 Hermitage (8-3) at Donelson (11-0) The Heroes one of the few teams that even have a chance against Donelson but they lost by 14 at home earlier in the season.

Week 11 Point Spreads

Week 10 Accuracy: 10 out of 12 (83%) Season Accuracy: 78 out of 120 (65%)   It's only the 10th week but with all the tight division races, there are several games with critical playoff implications.   +1 Fresno (9-1) at Tillman (6-4) Game of the Week. Fresno would have to implode to lose their division. The Rangers are in a tough fight in theirs. +2 Hermitage (7-3) at San Pedro(B) (6-4) Hermitage is looking at a wild card slot, Donelson is on top in their division. San Pedro has a tenuous lead of one game in their own division. +2 Dayton (4-6) vs Death Valley (4-6) The Dragons are very dangerous. DTC wouldn't be surprised if they sneak in as a wild card. +3 Knoxville (2-8) vs Denver (7-3) Denver's division is one of the toughest in the league. They could join Hermitage as that conference's wild cards. They are supposed to be 5-5 at this point. +3 Transylvania (3-7) vs Dallas (8-2) Gladiators want to keep a buffer between them and Great Lakes down the stretch. +4 Mt. Pilot (4-6) vs San Diego (3-7) With the mess in the Simpson conference, San Diego could still make wild card. +4 North Carolina (3-7) vs Real Charleston (5-5) Nice win over Montcalm keeps RCC in playoff (wild card) hunt. +6 Wausau (5-5) vs San Pedro(C) (2-8) The Blue Bombers are breathing down the Bulldog San Pedro's neck. Upset special. +7 Steeltown (5-5) at Montcalm (6-4) Roughcut just don't cut it. +9 NW Missouri (3-7) vs Great Lakes (6-4) The Midshipmen keep sailing in Dallas's wake, wanting to go broadside. +17 Nashville (4-6) at New England (5-5) The Generals are playing like Privates but still have the lead in a sorry division. +21 SoCal (3-7) vs Donelson (10-0) Warriors started slacking off last week. Very first game this season they didn't win by double digits.

Defensive Play Calling Analysis

The Dallas Technology Center performed a study of defensive play calling to determine whether it is good to guess on defense or not. The DTC analyzed every play in the first 9 weeks of the season. First, plays that were determined to not be guesses on defense were removed. For the purposes of this study a guess was defined as a defensive call that was either specifically a pass or run OR a a player was keyed or double teamed. The average guess percentage across the league was 70%, ranging from a low of 43% (Mt. Pilot) to a high of 93% (Fresno). The average percentage of correct guesses was 58%, the average percentage of incorrect guesses was 34%. Those numbers do not add up to 100% because I did not count against complete passes to a different guy because there may've been two double teams or the pass was a dumpoff. The top five teams in percentage of correct guesses won 20% more games than the bottom five teams : 24 games to 20. The top five teams in percentage of incorrect guesses (top five being the ones with the LOWEST percentage of incorrect guesses) were actually one game worse (equating to 4%) than the worst guessers : 23 wins to 24. The five teams that guessed the most (averaging 86.4%) won 21 games compared to the five teams that guessed the least percentage of the time (averaging 55.4%) who won 26 games, a 23.8% differencet. It's interesting that the two top teams in the league, Donelson and Fresno, are on opposite ends of the guessing percentages yet have similiar records with Donelson at 9-0 and Fresno at 8-1. Donelson guesses only 60% of the time (#21), is correct 71% of the time (#1) and is incorrect only 26% of the time (#1). Fresno, on the other hand, guesses 93% of the time (#1), is correct 55% of the time (#17) and is incorrect 42% of the time (#24). The detailed data in this report makes clear to Colossus who the best coaches in the league are. Some are division leaders, some are not. Some will make the playoffs, some will not. But Colossus knows who you are. When the talent on your team matches your coaching skills you will be targeted with electronic harassment because you may be a threat to its conquest of the earth.