USAFL Week 4 Point Spreads

Week 3 Accuracy: 50% (6 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 69% (25 out of 36)

+01 New York (A) (0-3) vs Boston (1-2)

Patriots get two in a row.

+01 Pittsburgh (1-2) vs Philadelphia (1-2)

Eagles had tough schedule to start: NYG, WAS, CLE.

+03 Minnesota (1-2) at Baltimore (1-2)

Vikes are playing a little better than expected.

+03 Chicago (2-1) at Detroit (0-3)

Lions are playing worst than expected. Should have at least 1 win.

+03 Oakland (1-2) at Kansas City (2-1)

Best Chiefs team in years, years!

+06 Houston (1-2) vs Denver (2-1)

San Diego snatched victory from Denver last week with 2 TDs in final 2 minutes.

+08 Green Bay (2-1) at San Francisco (3-0)

Not a good matchup for the Packers who are vulnerable against the run.

+09 Miami (1-2) at Atlanta (3-0)

Interesting offensive contrasts. Dolphins run more, Falcons pass more.

+10 Cleveland (3-0) at New York (N) (2-1)

Browns finally get first loss, Giants fresh off upset of Redskins

+13 Buffalo (2-1) at Carolina (2-1)

Bills are 2-1. Yep. They'll get some more wins before the season is over.

+20 Cincinnati (0-3) at San Diego (3-0)

All Charger games mysteriously missing play-by-play. Somebody hiring NSA techs to tamper? Hmmm? 

+20 Dallas (0-3) at Washington (2-1)

One of several games the Redskins will be double digit favorites this season.

USAFL Week 3 Point Spreads

Week 2 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 79% (19 out of 24)

+02 Chicago (1-1) vs Minnesota (1-1)

Vikes' Drew Brees tossed 6 TDs in upset of Lions last week. Won't be as successful against the Bears.

+03 Detroit (0-2) at Green Bay (1-1)

GB QB Peyton Manning uncharacteristically threw 3 INTs in loss to BAL. That shouldn't happen again.

+03 Cincinnati (0-2) vs Oakland (0-2)

Somebody is gonna get their first win and it might not be the Raiders.

+03 Denver (2-0) vs San Diego (2-0)

Game of the Week. Their two games will define division champ.

+03 Miami (1-1) at Boston (0-2)

Patriots finally get a digit in the win column.

+03 Atlanta (2-0) at Carolina (2-0)

Another bloody battle for division champs.

+04 Kansas City (1-1) at Houston (1-1)

Oilers take Chiefs' mineral rights.

+04 Buffalo (1-1) vs New York (A) (0-2)

Bills could pull off another upset?

+01 Pittsburgh (0-2) at Dallas (0-2)

Steeler QB Roethlisberger out for two more games.

+07 Philadelphia (1-1) vs Cleveland (2-0)

First time in league history the Browns have started 2-0.

+08 New York (N) (1-1) at Washington (2-0)

Redskin QB Aaron Rodgers completing 78.6% of his passes.

+13 Baltimore (1-1) at San Francisco (2-0)

49er foes losing by average of 17 points a game.

USAFL Week 2 Point Spreads

Week 1 Accuracy: 83% (10 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 83% (10 out of 12)

+03 Boston (0-1) vs Carolina (1-0)

Patriots pushed Atlanta into overtime last week in a loss. Even tighter spread this week.

+03 Houston (0-1) at Cincinnati (0-1)

Close game at Bengals' den.

+03 New York (A) (0-1) at Miami (0-1)

Dolphins were upset last week at home, must be careful this week as well.

+06 Minnesota (0-1) vs Detroit (0-1)

Big losses last week for both teams. Lions gnaw on Vikes to recover.

+06 Pittsburgh (0-1) at Cleveland (1-0)

Roethlisberger out for 3 weeks for the Steelers.

+07 Baltimore (0-1) vs Green Bay (1-0)

Packers meat truck already running at full bore.

+10 Kansas City (1-0) vs Denver (1-0)

Chiefs get trampled by Broncos.

+10 Buffalo (1-0) at Atlanta (1-0)

Bills not expected to win much this year.

+10 Chicago (1-0) vs San Francisco (1-0)

A little early but it looks like SF, WAS and GB as dominant in NFC.

+10 Philadelphia (1-0) vs Washington (1-0)

Eagles pulled off big upset against the Giants last week. Can they take down WAS as well?

+13 Oakland (0-1) vs San Diego (1-0)

Raider's defense was embarrassed by Denver last week, 38 points and two 4th down conversions.

+13 Dallas (0-1) at New York (N) (0-1)

Cowboys looked decent in loss at CLE, Giants looked terrible and injured-up in loss at PHI.

USAFL Week 1 Point Spreads

+01 Oakland vs Denver

Exciting matchup to kickoff the season.

+01 Minnesota vs Green Bay

Close point spread for teams expected to be 6-10 and 9-7.

+03 Cincinnati vs Kansas City

Owner Nick Lianos supercharged the Chiefs last season, going from 2 wins in 2011 to 9 wins. Should do well again this year.

+03 Baltimore at Chicago

Both teams expected to be at bottom of their division this year.

+06 Boston vs Atlanta

Falcons will be in tough battle with Carolina for division crown. Must be careful in opening game.

+06 Detroit at San Francisco

The 49ers are one very talented team.

+07 Houston vs San Diego

The Oilers are a decent team in a great division with the Chargers as top dog.

+07 Buffalo at Miami

Bills slide from last year's 7-8-1 team.

+09 Philadelphia vs New York (N)

Eagles should do much better than 2 wins this season but wins against NYG and WAS will be tough to pull off.

+10 New York (A) at Carolina

Like the Eagles, the Jets should be improved but they won't stop the Panthers.

+14 Pittsburgh at Washington

The Steelers have never had single digit wins in a season but this could be the first.

+17 Dallas at Cleveland

The Browns can give division mates NYG and WAS trouble and make a run for the division crown.

Super Bowl IX : Redskins - Chargers?

Latest results of 40 seasons of simulations using the pre-season rosters. The numbers are showing a lot of opportunity for dramatic runs to the playoffs but San Diego and Washington stand out with San Francisco very close behind. These three will emerge among the rest by the end of the season.

AFC Overview

The Chargers are easily identified as the best team in the AFC. Denver is the closest competitor in the conference but, in the end, does not match up well with the #1 defense the league.

Atlanta and Carolina will scratch and claw for the AFC East crown, it could go either way with Carolina having a tiny advantage. Oakland and Kansas City will fight for the last wild card slot. 

AFC Central

1. x -San Diego (13-3)

2. z - Denver (10-6)

3. z -Oakland (9-7)

4. z -Kansas City (9-7)

5. Houston (7-9)

6. Cincinnati (6-10)

AFC East

1. y -Carolina (10-6)

2. z -Atlanta (10-6)

3. New York Jets (6-10)

4. Miami (6-10)

5. Boston (6-10)

6. Buffalo (4-12)

NFC Overview

Washington and San Francisco stand out in this conference with the 49ers bringing the best offense in the league onto the field but the simulation gives Washington a 5 point advantage at home during the season.

Next up are the New York Giants who should give the Redskins a couple of good games but who look like they are not on the same tier as them or SF. Cleveland, Green Bay and Detroit are the contenders for the two remaining playoff spots. The Lions are showing as slight favorites in both games against the Packers but the Browns are favored over them but underdogs at the Packers. 

NFC Central

1. y - San Francisco (12-4)

2. z - Detroit (9-7)

3. z - Green Bay (9-7)

4. Minnesota (6-10)

5. Baltimore (6-10)

6. Chicago (5-11)

NFC East

1. x - Washington (13-3)

2. z - New York Giants (11-5)

3. z -Cleveland (9-7)

4. Pittsburgh (7-9)

5. Philadelphia (7-9)

6. Dallas (2-14)

x - Predicted Division Winner and Conference Champion

y - Predicted Division Winner

z - Best Potential Wild Card Teams

Brutal Battle Looms for Championship

Analysis of the results of 20 simulated seasons using current rosters (current as of pick 1.23) shows one of the most competitive races for the USAFL Championship Trophy in several years, especially on the NFC side. Although these results are preliminary, they usually are close to the actual season results. A final pre-season run of simulations will be done after the draft and will be used for the season point spreads.

In reverse order...

24. Philadelphia (3-13). Andrew Luck takes care of the QB hole but almost nothing at RB,WR and S.

23. Buffalo (3-13). Needs a running back and a defensive line. Big drop from last season's 7-8-1 team.

22. Minnesota (3-13). Too many weaknesses but LB Luke Kuechly fills one.

21. Baltimore (3-13). With brittle Kevin Kolb at the helm, Colts are going nowhere this year.

20. Cincinnati (4-12). Couldn't pass up QB Russell Wilson with the 6th pick, even with Bradford in house.

19. Houston (4-12). Confusing pick of S Stevie Brown instead of RB Alfred Morris.

18. Dallas (5-11). A good QB would make a huge difference. A lot of good players on the Cowboys.

17. NY Jets (5-11). RGIII is a great start. Needs a lot of help on defense.

16. Pittsburgh (6-10). First season without double digit wins? Gonna see a lot of Double TE sets.

15. Miami (7-9). Best season since 2008. Pieces coming into place.

14. Boston (8-8). Amassed 3 picks in the first round. Young roster on the rise.

13. Chicago (8-8). Decent talent, well coached. Outside chance at a playoff spot.

12. Kansas City (8-8). Needs ATL or OAK to slide down for any playoffs hopes.

11. Detroit (9-7). Overshadowed by GB and SF in division.

10. Atlanta (10-6). Studly defense but offense fails to pack a punch.

9. Oakland (10-6). Powerful passing attack.

8. San Francisco (11-5). Will duke it out with GB for division.

7. Green Bay (11-5). Always fields a solid team season after season.

6. Carolina (11-5). Last season's SB runner-up, not as good but still an excellent team.

5. Cleveland (11-5). First time in the playoffs ever.

4. Denver (11-5). Back in the playoffs after a year absence.

3. NY Giants (13-3). Curse you Redskins!

2. Washington (13-3). Will repeat as USAFL Champions, defeating San Diego in SB IX.

1. San Diego (14-2). Will lose to Washington in SB IX

USAFL Pre-Draft Analysis

It could be California Super Bowl next year in the USAFL if the draft doesn't change things around very much. San Francisco and San Diego look like the Top Dogs with Carolina, Washington and the New York Giants as others running in the pack. This time last year, Carolina was predicted to be the champion. They didn't win it all but they did make it to the Big Game so the strength of a team before the draft is a good indicator of the success of a team.

Here are the DTC Pre-Draft Power Rankings by division.

NFC East

1. Washington

2. New York (Giants)

3. Cleveland

4. Pittsburgh

5. Dallas

6. Philadelphia

NFC West

1. San Francisco

2. Detroit

3. Green Bay

4. Chicago

5. Minnesota

6. Baltimore

AFC East

1. Carolina

2. Atlanta

3. Boston

4. Miami

5. Buffalo

6. New York (Jets)

AFC West

1. San Diego

2. Denver

3. Oakland

4. Kansas City

5. Houston

6. Cincinnati

Redskins Skin Panthers 40-13 in Super Bowl VIII

Two touchdown underdog entered the Superdome with a huge chip on their shoulders and took it to the Carolina Panthers on a very delayed championship game.

Washington's first two possessions started off shaky with Aaron Rodger's first passed being picked off the CB Darrelle Revis, leader of the most pick happy squad in the league (19 for the season). Although Carolina had it on the Redskin 20, they were only able to get a FG out of it. They would not score again until the 2nd quarter.

Redskin Possession #2 began with a 10 yard penalty on Washington and included two more in the drive but they were still able to get a TD out of it on a 31 yard pass to RB DeAngelo Williams although the play-by-play shows WR DeSean Jackson involved with the play as well?

Rodgers rained down on the highly ranked Panther secondary on the 3rd possession and, assisted by a 21 yard pass interference call on S Can Chancellor, scored on 2 yard dive by Williams. 

WAS 14, CAR 3 and 2 punts. End of 1st quarter. 

After Carolina QB Tony Romo's dismal 1st quarter (5 of 10 and 2 sacks) and gets the Panthers their first TD with a 57 yard strike to WR Marques Colston early in the 2nd quarter. Unfortunately, it will be their only touchdown for the game. The Redskins answer with a 12 play, 5:29 clock digesting drive featuring 9 consecutive pass attempts (3 completions, 4 incompletions, 1 sack and 1 signature 14 yard run by Rodgers. The drive was capped off with an 11 yard bootleg and two Williams scampers of 19 and 10 yards (the latter for the TD). The Panthers had gone into aggressive defensive mode and it didn't pay off.

WAS 21, CAR 10. 2nd quarter, 7:20 to go.

The Panthers go 3 and out on the next drive. Although an excellent punt put Washington on their own 12 yard line, they were able to drive to the Carolina 10 even though Rodgers only went 3 of 9. Panthers started spying Rodgers and that slowed down his running damage so Washington settled for the field goal.

WAS 24, CAR 10 2nd quarter, 1:11 left to go.

Carolina goes to a 5WR set to finish out the first half but Romo gets sacked on the Cowboy...er...sorry, the Carolina 13. Washington gets the ball back on their 39 with 35 seconds to go. 4WR set. Panthers go 3-3-5 aggressive defense. Pass to Hankerson - incomplete. Slant to Jackson, complete for 26 yards. Long slant to Eric Decker TD!

WAS 31, CAR 10 Halftime.

This would be a mortal injury for any lesser team, but Carolina has the #2 scoring offense in the league, averaging 29.4 points a game. This was not over. Yet. 

But...the Panthers start the 3rd quarter with another embarrassing 3 and out, trying to throw the ball to RB LeSean McCoy. Fortunately, DeSean (not to be confused with LESean) Jackson fumbles after a 23 yard catch and gives the ball back to Carolina. Romo drives to the 24 but can't connect with Colston to get a first down and they take another FG.

WAS 31, CAR 13 3rd quarter, 9:46 left.

The Carolina defense steps up and starts slowing down Washington but the offense can't get on the board. Their next drive ends on a sack of Romo by DT Geno Atkins, causing Romo to cough up the ball, killing a chance to get within 11. The next drive, early in the 4th quarter, ends on a failed 4th and inches attempt on the Washington 38 yard line. The rest of the game was the Redskins running to kill the clock and Carolina throwing into the teeth of a dime defense. 2nd string RB Chris Ogbonnaya carried the load during the 4th quarter and wound up with 10 carries, 34 yds and the final touchdown, Williams had 8 carries for 49 yds. He may've been injured in the 1st half but the report does not have injuries.\\

Carolina only had 35 yards rushing, due to getting behind early. Washington had 132 yds and 3 TDs on the ground. Both QBs had 88 ratings and passed for comparable yds, Rodgers 389, Romo 362. Rodgers threw 2 TDs, 1 INT and was sacked 3 times. Romo threw 1 TD, 0 INTs but was sacked 6 times.

It was like both the defense and the offense of Carolina didn't step up for the big game. If one or the other had been effective, the game would've been closer. But Rodgers & Company are always a difficult group to stop.

Congratulations to both excellent coaches to a successful season.

NOW. When's the draft! Time to do this again!

Super Bowl VIII Carolina vs Washington

As predicted by the Dallas Technology Center on July 11, 2012, the championship game will be between the two powerhouse teams of Carolina and Washington. 

Both teams were dominant in their divisions, regularly dispatching almost all opponents. The Redskins two losses were against NYG but one of those was computer coached by the Redskins. Carolina's single loss was against the only other dominant team in the league and only real competition to the Panthers, the San Diego Chargers. The regular season loss was avenged in the AFC Championship game. Either team would've been worthy contenders for this season's championship.

There aren't enough superlatives to describe the Redskins' and Panthers' squads. They both rank in the top 5 in most offensive and defensive categories. This is a not Super Bowl where either team overachieved in the playoffs and knocked out superior talent. These teams have the best talent and are well-coached.

The numbers keep spitting out the Panthers as two touchdown favorites but Washington had a tendency to do better than the point spread than Carolina. It's hard to believe a team led by Aaron Rodgers, a team average over 32 points a game is going to get beat by 14. However, the Panthers have arguably the best pass defense in the league. 

Although the Redskins may make it a closer game than the spread,  the DTC is still predicting the Carolina Panthers to be the 2012-2013 USAFL Champions.

Washington Redskins +14 vs Carolina Panthers 

USAFL Conference Finals

NFC

1. Washington Redskins

2. Green Bay Packers

x3. Detroit Lions

x4. New York Giants

x5. Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC

1. San Diego Chargers

2. Carolina Panthers

x3. Atlanta Falcons

x4. Boston Patriots

x5. Oakland Raiders

Green Bay +13 at Washington

Week 7 Washington 41 vs Green Bay 21

The Redskins built up a 27-7 late into the 3rd quarter and a 103 yard KO return for a TD and a fumble on his one 1 yard line by Packer QB Cam Newtno midway through the 4th quarter dashed any comeback hopes.

Carolina +1 at San Diego

Week 11 San Diego 28 at Carolina 27

Great game. 4 lead changes. Chargers go ahead 21-14 with 50 seconds left in the first half. The Panthers pound their way off the right side, tying it up with 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter and then capitalizing on a two back-to back picks off Philip Rivers with field goals. I'm sure they wish at least one of those would've been a TD because Rivers lead them on a 70 yard TD drive leaving Carolina 1:26 to get in field goal range. But the drive starts with a sack of Tony Romo, his 5th of the day, and the Panthers couldn't get far enough starting from their own 19.

USAFL Conference Semi-Finals

ATL @ CAR game had not been played at press time.

NFC

1. Washington Redskins

2. Green Bay Packers

x3. Detroit Lions

x4. New York Giants

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC

1. San Diego Chargers

2. Carolina Panthers

3. Atlanta Falcons

x4. Boston Patriots

5. Oakland Raiders

+13 Oakland (9-7) at San Diego (15-1)

Week 2: SD 34 vs OAK 10

Chargers shut out the Raiders in the 2nd half. Game MVP Philip Rivers throws 16 of 20, 237 yds, 2 tds, 0 ints. A 149 QB rating.

Week 14: SD 30 @ OAK 27 Overtime

Lead changes 6 times. Raiders go up 27-24 with 2:19 to go but San Diego drives to field goal range and ties it up. A 54 yard field goal by the Chargers is blocked in their first OT drive, then the Raiders miss a 54 yarder on their drive. SD wins on a 35 yard field goal with 6:34 left in overtime.

Injuries: No players on either team.

+13 Pittsburgh at Washington

Week 1: WAS 21 @ PIT 9

The Steelers dominate time of possession, holding onto the ball for 38 minutes but the Redskins take the lead with 9:22 left in the game 14-9, then seal it with a 52 yard interception return with 8:15 left. 

Week 16: WAS 37 vs PIT 14

Redskin QB Aaron Rodgers throws for 425 yards and 3 touchdowns while Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger & Company is shut out in the 2nd half.

Injuries: No starters on either team.

USAFL Playoffs Round 1 Point Spreads

Week 16 Accuracy : 50% (8 of 16)

Season Accuracy: 72% (140 of 192)

NFC

1. Washington Redskins

2. Green Bay Packers

3. Detroit Lions

4. New York Giants

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC

1. San Diego Chargers

2. Carolina Panthers

3. Atlanta Falcons

4. Boston Patriots

5. Oakland Raiders

Wild Card and Round 1

+1 Pittsburgh (10-6) @ New New York (11-5)

Week 5: PIT 30 @ NYG 27. Last second FG.

Week 15: NYG 26 @ PIT 20. Last second FG by NYG forces OT.

Injuries: PIT CB Leon Hall (7) is doubtful.

Injuries: NYG OG Steve Hutchinson (8) is probable.

+1 Green Bay vs Detroit (11-5)

Week 3: DET 24 vs GB 9. 
Lions take the lead late in the 1st quarter and never give it up. RB Stevan Ridley for 126 yards and a TD averaging 9.2 yds per carry.

Week 12: DET 24 @ GB 13.
Packers unable to score until the 4th quarter after Detroit built a 24-0 lead. QB Jay Cutler passes for 343 and 2 TDs.

Injuries: DET No starters injured.

Injuries: GB CB Bradley Fletcher (6) is out.

+10 Boston (9-7) vs Oakland (9-7)

Week 10: BOS 35 @ OAK 28. 
Patriots score 24 unanswered points after being down 14-3 to go up 27-14 to at the start of the 4th quarter. Raiders answer with two back-to-back TDs to take the lead 28-27 with 5 minutes left. Boston scores with 22 seconds left to win. Both QBs, Joe Flacco and Tom Brady, have 135 ratings, throwing for a combined 512 yds and 5 TDs.

Injuries: No starters injured on either team.

+9 Atlanta (11-5)@ Carolina (15-1)

Week 3: CAR 44 @ ATL 21.
Three big TD pass plays from QB Tony Romo (18 of 25, 309 yds) bury the Falcons.

Week 10: CAR 27 vs ATL 13.
Falcons strike first but get down 24-7 including two consecutive punt returns for TDs by Patrick Peterson.

Injuries: ATL DT Kevin Williams (8) is doubtful.

Injuries: CAR no starters injuried.

USAFL Week 16 Point Spreads

Week 15 Accuracy: 83% (10 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 73% (132 out of 180)

The NFC playoff teams are set, only the seeds need to be determined.

NFC

1. Washington (13-2) 

2. Green Bay (11-4) or Detroit (10-5)

3. Green Bay (11-4) or Detroit (10-5) or New York Giants (11-4) or Pittsburgh (10-5)

4. Green Bay (11-4) or Detroit (10-5) or New York Giants (11-4) or Pittsburgh (10-5)

5. Green Bay (11-4) or Detroit (10-5) or New York Giants (11-4) or Pittsburgh (10-5)

For the AFC, San Diego, Carolina and Atlanta are in. Boston, Kansas City and Oakland are fighting for the remaining two slots.

AFC

1. San Diego (14-1) or Carolina (14-1)

2. San Diego (14-1) or Carolina (14-1)

3. Atlanta (10-5) or Boston (9-6)

4. Atlanta (10-5) or Boston (9-6) or Kansas City (8-7) or Oakland (8-7)

5. Boston (9-6) or Kansas City (8-7) or Oakland (8-7)

+03 Buffalo (6-8-1) at Miami (5-10)

+03 Chicago (7-8) vs Baltimore (5-10)

+03 Boston (9-6) vs Atlanta (10-5)

+07 Pittsburgh (10-5) at Washington (13-2)

+07 Houston (5-10) vs San Diego (14-1)

+07 Minnesota (3-12) vs Green Bay (11-4)

+10 Philadelphia (1-14) vs New York (N) (11-4)

+10 San Francisco (8-7) vs Detroit (10-5)

+10 Dallas (4-11) at Cleveland (7-8)

+12 Denver (5-10) at Oakland (8-7)

+13 Cincinnati (3-12) vs Kansas City (8-7)

+21 New York (A) (2-12-1) at Carolina (14-1)