Friday, December 24, 2010

USAFL Week 16 Point Spreads

Week 15 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)
Season Accuracy:  72% (129 out of 180)
 
Playoff Situation
 
1. Green Bay 15-0
2. Pittsburgh 12-3 or Washington 11-4
3. Pittsburgh 12-3 or Washington 11-4 or San Francisco 12-3
4. Pittsburgh 12-3 or Washington 11-4 or San Francisco 12-3
5. New York Giants 10-5
 
1. Denver 13-2  or Carolina 13-2 or Atlanta 13-2
2. Denver 13-2 or Carolina 13-2 or Atlanta 13-2
3. Denver 13-2 or Carolina 13-2 or Atlanta 13-2 or San Diego 12-3
4. San Diego 12-3 or Atlanta 13-2
5. Boston 10-5
 
 
Week 16 Point Spreads
 
+01 Buffalo (3-12) at Miami (5-10)
+03 Philadelphia (3-12) vs New York (N) (10-5)
+04 Chicago (4-11) vs Baltimore (3-12)
+05 San Francisco (12-3) vs Detroit (5-10)
+06 Cleveland (3-12) vs Dallas (5-10)
+06 Washington (11-4) vs Pittsburgh (12-3)
+11 Kansas City (1-14) at Cincinnati (8-7)
+15 Atlanta (13-2) at Boston (10-5)
+15 Oakland (7-8) vs Denver (13-2)
+15 Minnesota (7-8) vs Green Bay (15-0)
+16 Houston (3-12) vs San Diego (12-3)
+30 New York (A) (2-13) at Carolina (13-2)

Friday, December 17, 2010

USAFL Week 15 Point Spreads

Week 14 Accuracy: 83% (10 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 73% (122 out of 168)
 
Playoff Situation
 
Green Bay 14-0, Pittsburgh 12-2, San Francisco 11-3 and Washington 10-4 are in.
New York (N) 9-5 is in with a win, Minnesota 7-7 is out with a loss.
 
The following assumes Denver defeats Kansas City is week 14.
Atlanta 12-2, Carolina 12-2, Denver 12-2 and San Diego 11-3 are in.
Boston 9-5 is in with a win, Cincinnati 8-6 needs to win out and Boston to lose out to be in.
 
Week 15 Point Spreads
 
+03 Dallas (4-10) vs Philadelphia (3-11)
+03 Cleveland (3-11) vs Washington (10-4)
+03 New York (N) (9-5) at Pittsburgh (12-2)
+04 Detroit (4-10) at Baltimore (3-11)
+06 Houston (2-12) at Oakland (7-7)
+08 Buffalo (3-11) vs Boston (9-5)
+15 San Francisco (11-3) at Minnesota (7-7)
+16 New York (A) (2-12) at Atlanta (12-2)
+17 Kansas City (1-12) vs San Diego (11-3)
+23 Miami (5-9) vs Carolina (12-2)
+24 Chicago (4-10) at Green Bay (14-0)
+25 Cincinnati (8-6) at Denver (11-2)
 
 

Friday, December 10, 2010

USAFL Week 14 Point Spreads

Week 13 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 72% (112 out of 156)
 
Playoff Situation
 
Thirteen teams, ten slots.
Six slots already filled, leaving...
Seven teams, four slots.
 
Green Bay (13-0), Pittsburgh (11-2) and San Francisco (10-3) are in.
Washington (9-4), New York Giants (8-5) and Minnesota (7-6) are left.
 
Atlanta (11-2), Carolina (11-2) and Denver (11-2) are in.
San Diego (10-3), Boston (9-4), Cincinnati (7-6) and Oakland (7-6) are left.
 
Colossus Playoff Seeds (using weighted spreads):
 
1. Green Bay (16-0)
2. Pittsburgh (14-2)
3. San Francisco (12-4)
4. Washington (11-5)
5. New York Giants (10-6)
(Minnesota will finish 9-7, losing to Green Bay in week 16.)
 
1. Atlanta (14-2) (ATL defeated DEN, stronger schedule than CAR)
2. Denver (14-2) (DEN defeated CAR)
3. Carolina (14-2)
4. San Diego (13-3)
5. Boston (10-6)
(Cincinnati 9-7, Oakland 8-8)
 
Week 14 Point Spreads
 
+02 Houston (2-11) at Cincinnati (7-6)
+02 Chicago (4-9) vs San Francisco (10-3)
+03 Detroit (3-10) at Minnesota (7-6)
+04 New York (A) (2-11) at Miami (4-9)
+07 Buffalo (3-10) at Atlanta (11-2)
+08 Washington (9-4) at Philadelphia (3-10)
+10 Baltimore (3-10) vs Green Bay (13-0)
+12 Dallas (4-9) at New York (N) (8-5)
+13 Boston (9-4) vs Carolina (11-2)
+13 Oakland (7-6) vs San Diego (10-3)
+14 Cleveland (3-10) vs Pittsburgh (11-2)
+26 Kansas City (1-12) vs Denver (11-2)

Friday, December 3, 2010

USAFL Week 13 Point Spreads

Week 12 Accuracy: 67% (8 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 71% (103 out of 144)
 
+01 Dallas (4-8) at Washington (8-4)
+02 Baltimore (2-10) vs Minnesota (7-5)
+04 Oakland (6-6) at Kansas City (1-11)
+07 Miami (4-8) at Atlanta (10-2)
+08 Philadelphia (3-9) at Pittsburgh (10-2)
+08 Chicago (3-9) at Detroit (3-9)
+12 New York (A) (2-10) vs Boston (8-4)
+12 Cincinnati (7-5) at San Diego (9-3)
+15 Cleveland (3-9) at New York (N) (7-5)
+17 San Francisco (10-2) vs Green Bay (12-0)
+20 Houston (2-10) vs Denver (10-2)
+23 Buffalo (3-9) at Carolina (10-2)

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

USAFL Week 12 Point Spreads

Week 11 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)
Season Accuracy:  72% (95 out of 132)
 
+02 San Francisco (9-2) vs Baltimore (2-9)
+04 New York (A) (1-10) at Buffalo (3-8)
+07 Dallas (4-7) vs Pittsburgh (9-2)
+07 Washington (7-4) vs New York (N) (7-4)
+07 Oakland (6-5) at Cincinnati (6-5)
+10 San Diego (9-2) at Denver (9-2)
+11 Kansas City (1-10) at Houston (1-10)
+11 Chicago (3-8) vs Minnesota (6-5)
+17 Cleveland (2-9) at Philadelphia (3-8)
+19 Miami (4-7) at Boston (7-4)
+19 Detroit (3-8) at Green Bay (11-0)
+20 Atlanta (10-1) at Carolina (9-2)

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

USAFL Week 11 Point Spreads

Week 10 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 72% (86 out of 120)
 
+02 Oakland (6-4) at Atlanta (9-1)
+03 Baltimore (2-8) at Philadelphia (2-8)
+03 San Diego (9-1) at Carolina (8-2)
+05 Detroit (3-7) at Washington (6-4)
+05 Buffalo (2-8) vs Houston (1-9)
+08 Minnesota (5-5) at New York (N) (7-3)
+11 San Francisco (8-2) at Dallas (4-6)
+16 New York (A) (1-9) vs Cincinnati (5-5)
+19 Kansas City (1-9) at Boston (6-4)
+20 Cleveland (2-8) vs Green Bay (10-0)
+21 Chicago (3-7) at Pittsburgh (8-2)
+26 Miami (4-6) vs Denver (8-2)

USAFL Week 10 Point Spreads

Week 9 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 71% (77 out of 108)
 
+01 New York (N) (7-2) at Green Bay (9-0)
+02 Miami (3-6) at Houston (1-8)
+03 Cleveland (2-7) at San Francisco (7-2)
+04 Philadelphia (2-7) at Minnesota (4-5)
+05 Dallas (3-6) at Detroit (3-6)
+05 Chicago (3-6) vs Washington (5-4)
+09 Baltimore (2-7) vs Pittsburgh (7-2)
+09 Oakland (6-3) vs Boston (5-4)
+11 New York (A) (1-8) at Kansas City (0-9)
+15 Atlanta (8-1) at Denver (8-1)
+16 Cincinnati (5-4) vs Carolina (7-2)
+22 Buffalo (2-7) at San Diego (8-1)

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

USAFL Week 9 Point Spreads

Week 8 Accuracy: 67% (8 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 71% (68 out of 96)
 
+01 Oakland (5-3) at New York (A) (1-7)
Odd. Colossus actually said EVEN spread but since I need to pick a winner I always go with home team. Hard to believe a one win team could beat the Raiders.

+01 Houston (1-7) at Atlanta (7-1)
Another odd one. Falcons suffered first loss last week, getting shutout at San Diego.

+02 Cleveland (2-6) vs Detroit (2-6)
Lions get back in the win column, Browns continue to suffer.

+03 Baltimore (2-6) at Washington (4-4)
Redskins started strong but have lost 3 in a row. Start a 3 game winning streak.

+05 Chicago (2-6) at Dallas (3-5)
Cowboys the un-Redskin. Started slow at 0-4, now boast two upsets in a row. They have a shot at a 9-10 win season. That's right. You read it here, suckas.

+05 Boston (5-3) vs Denver (7-1)
This is the last game the Broncos won't be double digit favorites. Chargers are HUGE Patriot fans this week.

+06 Buffalo (2-6) vs Cincinnati (4-4)
That Bengal defense is among the best in the league. 22 sacks. Only allowed a single rushing TD. Only team to defeat Denver.

+10 Philadelphia (2-6) vs Green Bay (8-0)
Green Bay upset Pittsburgh last week and, with Atlanta loss, is the only undefeated team left in the league.

+11 Minnesota (4-4) at Pittsburgh (6-2)
The Vikings' only chance is to get turnovers. They rank 2nd in interceptions (14), 4th in turnovers overall.

+15 Miami (3-5) vs San Diego (7-1)
Charger QB Philip Rivers and RB Fred Jackson have a great day at Miami.

+20 San Francisco (6-2) at New York (N) (7-1)
Colossus has ordered its host team New York to whup the team that has embarrassed it the entire season.

+26 Kansas City (0-8) at Carolina (6-2)
Panthers have top offense in the league. They will have no trouble scalping the Chiefs.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

USAFL Week 8 Point Spreads

Week 7 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12. Colossus system failure.)
Season Accuracy: 71% (60 out of 84)
 
+01 Buffalo (1-6) at Kansas City (0-7)
The Chiefs could get first win, but it will be a squeaker.

+03 Washington (4-3) at Minnesota (3-4)
Look for an upset here. Both teams have prolific passing attacks. The Redskins have an average pass defense. The Vikings are the very worst in passing yards allowed although they are #1 in interceptions, picking up 13 so far.

+05 Dallas (2-5) at Baltimore (2-5)
This should be a close one. Both QBs will have plenty of time to hit receivers.

+05 Cleveland (2-5) at Chicago (1-6)
Browns losing streak extends to 5.

+06 Green Bay (7-0) vs Pittsburgh (6-1)
Packers' potent offense vs Steelers' shutdown defense.

+09 San Francisco (5-2) vs Philadelphia (2-5)
That's right. Colossus picks the 2 win over the 5 win. Go Eagles!

+10 Houston (1-6) vs Boston (4-3)
Patriots stay in the playoff mix behind Atlanta and Carolina.

+14 Detroit (2-5) vs New York (N) (6-1)
Giants and Steelers neck and neck for their division at 6-1.

+15 Atlanta (7-0) at San Diego (6-1)
Chargers are not winning by predicted margins. This will be closer than 2 touchdowns.

+16 Miami (3-4) at Cincinnati (3-4)
Bengals bounce back from loss at Atlanta.

+22 Oakland (5-2) vs Carolina (5-2)
Panthers are unexpectedly behind the Falcons by 2 games in division.

+33 New York (A) (1-6) at Denver (6-1)
Poor Jets. They need a QB.

Monday, October 18, 2010

USAFL Week 7 Point Spreads

Week 6 Accuracy: 92% (11 out of 12. Curse you San Fran!)
Season Accuracy: 74% (53 out of 72)
 
+01 Oakland (4-2) at Buffalo (1-5)
Very odd spread. But Colossus is 74%.

+02 New York (A) (0-6) vs Houston (1-5)
No so odd spread.

+02 Denver (5-1) at Carolina (5-1)
Game o' the Week. Bronco defense matches up well with Panther offense but going the other way, Carolina has a huge advantage.

+03 Detroit (2-4) at Philadelphia (1-5)
The Lions are schizophrenic, Colossus can't figure them out.

+04 Kansas City (0-6) at Miami (2-4)
The Chiefs might win 3 games, Dolphins 6.

+04 Atlanta (6-0) vs Cincinnati (3-3)
Hmm. Interesting. The Bengal defense matches up well with the strengths of the Atlanta offense. The Falcons have the edge when Cincinnati has the ball, can Carson Palmer & Co. pierce the arguably #1 pass defense the league.

+05 Washington (4-2) vs Green Bay (6-0)
The 49ers upset the Redskins last week, the Packers better watch out.

+06 Boston (4-2) vs San Diego (5-1)
Great game in Boston. Both are in bloody division races.

+07 Cleveland (2-4) vs Baltimore (1-5)
They'll be some passes thrown in this game, neither team has much of a running game.

+11 Dallas (1-5) vs Minnesota (3-3)
The Vikings have been upset twice but looks like they will win like their real counterparts did against Dallas Sunday.
 
+19 Chicago (1-5) at New York (N) (5-1)
Giants enter a streak of 3 easier games, the Bears have a shot at a couple of wins...after this game.

+23 San Francisco (5-1) at Pittsburgh (5-1)
The 49ers have smacked Colossus with back to back upsets as double digit underdogs. This week Colossus has its revenge: No way Pittsburgh goes down.
 

Saturday, October 9, 2010

USAFL Week 6 Point Spreads

Week 5 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 70% (42 out of 60)

Four huge upsets this week.

Carson Palmer threw 3 touchdown passes to lead the Cincinnati Bengals in a big upset over previously undefeated Denver Broncos, 28-7.

The New York Giants slipped by division leader Pittsburgh Steelers 23-13 thanks to a risky 4th down attempt late in the game that failed by Pittsburgh when they were in field goal range.

San Francisco stunned Minnesota in the final two minutes, winning 35-28. The Vikings were up by a point, moving the ball when QB Dree Brees checked down to backup RB Jeremi Johnson on a pass play on the 49ers 38 yard line. Johnson snags it at the 30 but Viking OLB Julian Peterson forces the ball out of his arms. DT Spencer Johnson spots the errant ball, picks it up and rumbles 70 yards for the winning touchdown with DBs bouncing off of him like peas thrown at a tank.

Dallas mounted a HUGE 4th quarter comeback against Philadelphia to win 38-34. However, the win is marred by the mockery of competition by the Eagles. Down 34-17 with 6 minutes left in the game, Cowboy QB Jason Campbell throws 3 TD passes. But the Eagles called goalline defense several times in the final minutes against the Cowboys who were obviously in a constant passing situation.

+01 Cincinnati (3-2) vs Boston (3-2)
Can the Patriots extend their 3 game win streak?

+06 Kansas City (0-5) vs Atlanta (5-0)
Rather close spread for teams with zeros in opposite columns.

+07 Baltimore (1-4) vs New York (N) (4-1)
Raven's defense allows too many points.

+10 Detroit (2-3) vs Pittsburgh (4-1)
Steelers bounce back after upset to New York Giants.

+12 Miami (2-3) at Oakland (3-2)
The Raiders are hanging in there in division race vs Denver and San Diego

+13 San Francisco (4-1) vs Washington (4-1)
What are the 49ers doing at 4-1? What is up with that?

+15 Chicago (1-4) vs Philadelphia (0-5)
Zzzzz.

+17 Dallas (1-4) at Green Bay (5-0)
The Packers are the best team in the USAFL right now.

+18 Cleveland (2-3) at Minnesota (2-3)
Midseason gets easier for the Browns after this. Hang on.

+21 Houston (1-4) vs Carolina (4-1)
Predicted score 27-6. Ouch.

+25 Buffalo (1-4) at Denver (4-1)
Like the Browns, the Bills have a shot at wins the next 3 games after.

+27 New York (A) (0-5) at San Diego (4-1)It hurts to see one of the best teams face one of the worst.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

USAFL Week 5 Point Spreads

Week 4 Accuracy: 83% (10 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 73% (35 out of 48)
 
+04 Detroit (1-3) vs Baltimore (1-3)
The Lions annoy Colossus. They don't win and lose when they are supposed to.

+06 Houston (1-3) vs Oakland (2-2)
Latest Colossus numbers show Houston as a 3-13 team instead of 7-9 as originally predicted. Need more research to see why. Trades?

+07 New York (A) (0-4) vs Atlanta (4-0)
The Falcons were not supposed to be this good. By a long shot.

+10 Dallas (0-4) at Philadelphia (0-4)
Don't give up Eagles fans, a win streak begins.

+11 New York (N) (3-1) vs Pittsburgh (4-0)
Steeler 'D' doesn't allow points and stuffs the run. Not good for the Giants.

+12 Cincinnati (2-2) vs Denver (4-0)
Bengals have better days ahead. Just not the day they play Denver.

+15 Cleveland (2-2) at Washington (3-1)
On fire Redskin QB Aaron Rodgers vs an excellent Brown pass defense.

+15 Chicago (1-3) vs Green Bay (4-0)
Speaking of QBs, Packer Donovan McNabb is #1: 9 tds, 121.5 rating.

+18 Buffalo (1-3) at Boston (2-2)
Patriots are a good team in a very tough division.

+18 Kansas City (0-4) at San Diego (3-1)
Chargers should have no trouble keeping pressure on division leader Denver.

+19 San Francisco (3-1) vs Minnesota (2-2)
Vikings should still make the playoffs in spite of disappointing start.

+23 Miami (2-2) at Carolina (3-1)
Poor Dolphins have a tough schedule.

Monday, September 20, 2010

USAFL Week 4 Point Spreads

Week 3 Accuracy: 58% 7 out of 12 Colossus circuits overheat.
Season Accuracy: 69% 25 out of 36
 
+01 Pittsburgh (3-0) at Philadelphia (0-3)
Actually calculated as even but a winner must be selected and Colossus always defaults to the home team. Undefeated vs Non-win and it's even?

+01 San Diego (2-1) at Cincinnati (2-1)
Could Cincy pass up Chargers in division race?

+01 Atlanta (3-0) at Miami (2-1)
Falcons defeat Carolina in huge upset last week. Dolphins could be easy mark.

+01 Chicago (0-3) vs Detroit (1-2)
Jay Cutler and friends barely skin Bears.

+03 Baltimore (1-2) at Minnesota (1-2)
Ravens surprised by SanFran last week. Doesn't get easier.

+05  Washington (2-1) at Dallas (0-3)
Cowboys get first win.

+07 Cleveland (2-1) vs New York (N) (2-1)
Giants looked like pygmies against WAS last week.

+13 Buffalo (1-2) vs Carolina (2-1)
Whaaaat? Carolina got a loss? Poor Buffalo, Panthers feast.

+14 Kansas City (0-3) at Oakland (1-2)
Colossus expects Raiders to be 9-7, Chiefs 4-12.
 
+19 New York (A) (0-3) at Boston (1-2)
Two worst defenses in the league. I guess Jets are THE worst.

+19 Houston (1-2) at Denver (3-0)
After handily dispatching San Diego last week, Denver takes control of division.

+21 San Francisco (3-0) at Green Bay (3-0)
49ers are playing way too big for their britches. They have 2 upset scalps on their belt. The Packers will bring them down to earth with a loud thud.

Friday, September 10, 2010

USAFL Week 3 Point Spreads

Week 2 Accuracy: 83%! 10 out of 12 Worship the Mighty Colossus!
Season Accuracy: 75% 18 out of 24
 
+01 Cincinnati (2-0) at Oakland (0-2)
The no-win Raiders favored over the undefeated Bengals?! That's the numbers.

+01 New York (A) (0-2) vs Buffalo (0-2)
This is a battle between contenders for worst in the division.

+01 Denver (2-0) at San Diego (2-0)
Game o' the Week! This game and the week 12 rematch could decide division winner.

+06 Miami (2-0) vs Boston (0-2)
Whaaaat? Another undefeated to lose to a loser?

+06 Kansas City (0-2) vs Houston (0-2)
Don't count the Chiefs out but at least someone gets first win.

+07 Dallas (0-2) at Pittsburgh (2-0)
Too bad the Cowboys decided to make it a rebuild year. They had some talent.

+07 Cleveland (1-1) vs Philadelphia (0-2)
The Eagles are supposed to be 10-6, the Browns 4-12. Why a close spread?

+08 Washington (1-1) at New York (N) (2-0)
The Redskins almost came back against Pittsburgh, then beat the Eagles in a mild upset. The Giants better watch out.

+09 Chicago (0-2) at Minnesota (0-2)
The Vikings should get on track to a decent season starting here.

+11 San Francisco (2-0) at Baltimore (1-1)
The mediocrity that is San Fran is exposed.

+13 Atlanta (2-0) vs Carolina (2-0)
Yawn. Panthers win again. And again. Hail the Champion.

+15 Detroit (1-1) vs Green Bay (2-0)
Lions picked off Brees 3 times last week in upset.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

USAFL Week 2 Point Spreads

Week 1 Accuracy: 66% (8 out of 12)
 
+02 Washington (0-1) vs Philadelphia (0-1)
The Redskins did better than expected against Pittsburgh last week. The Eagles will want to avoid being upset two weeks in a row.

+05 Dallas (0-1) vs New York (N) (1-0)
New York pulled off a mild upset of Philadelphia last week but Dallas hit an embarrassing 33-14 upset by Cleveland.

+06 Baltimore (1-0) at Green Bay (1-0)
A Raven upset would help change the division race dynamic since the Packers are expected to win the division going 13-3. Baltimore is predicted to be only 9-7.

+06 Detroit (0-1) vs Minnesota (0-1)
San Fran upset the Lions last week, the Vikings are a tougher opponent.

+06 Buffalo (0-1) vs Atlanta (1-0)
Atlanta crushed Boston in a dramatic upset last week while Buffalo kept it close with Miami forcing them to come from behind in the 4th quarter.

+07 Houston (0-1) vs Cincinnati (1-0)
The Bengals rocked out to start the season scoring 35 points, the Texans only scored 7 in their opener. 

+11 Oakland (0-1) at San Diego (1-0)
Oakland is supposed to be a 9-7 team but the Chargers ain't going to be one of the 9.

+12 Chicago (0-1) at San Francisco (1-0)
The 49ers start out with an unexpected win. Should make it two in a row.

+12 New York (A) (0-1) vs Miami (1-0)
The Jets will be grounded for most of the season.

+13 Boston (0-1) at Carolina (1-0)
At least this week, the Patriots are expected to lose big.

+16 Cleveland (1-0) at Pittsburgh (1-0)
The Browns pull off two major upsets in a row! NOT.

+27 Kansas City (0-1) at Denver (1-0)
Ouch. Colossus is just insulting the Chiefs on this one.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

USAFL Week 1 Point Spreads

Week 1 Point Spreads
 
+03 New York (N) vs Philadelphia
A playoff spot could hang in the balance between these two - the season starts right off the bat with a critical game.

+04 San Francisco at Detroit
Neither of these teams are expected to make it beyond 4th in the division.

+08 Buffalo vs Miami
The Dolphins have a better shot at the playoffs than the Bills but they will have to pull off some upsets on the way.

+09 Atlanta vs Boston
The Falcons need an upset now, they are expected to finish up 4th behind Miami in the division.
 
+09 Oakland at Denver
Denver and San Diego are predicted to battle for the division title. Oakland may fight Cincinnati for a wild card playoff spot.

+10 Minnesota at Green Bay
Results already in for this one - Colossus picked it right on: GB 34, MIN 24.

+10 Kansas City vs Cincinnati
The Bengals can't blow it here because Oakland may be breathing down their neck most of the season.

+13 Cleveland at Dallas
Results already in for this one. Colossus missed big time. Cleveland pulls off a huge upset to start the season CLE 33, DAL 14

+13 Chicago at Baltimore
The Ravens will have an easier time this week than against the Packers next week.

+16 Washington at Pittsburgh
Steelers expected to take the NFC East, Redskins expected to miss the playoffs at 7-9.

+17 Houston at San Diego
The Chargers - Broncos slugfest for the AFC Central crown will be fun to watch.

+31 New York (A) vs Carolina
The Panthers begin their Championship march with a huge first week.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

USAFL Pre-Season Predictions

Carolina will defeat Green Bay by at least a touchdown for the 2010 USAFL Championship
 
NFC Playoffs
Wildcards: Minnesota at NY Giants
Semi-Finals: NY Giants at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia at Green Bay
Championship: Green Bay at Pittsburgh
 
AFC Playoffs
Wildcard: Cincinnati at Boston 
Semi-Finals: Cincinnati at Carolina, San Diego at Denver
Championship: San Diego at Carolina
 
 
NFC East
Pittsburgh 12-4
Philadelphia 10-6
NY Giants 10-6
Dallas 8-8
Washington 7-9
Cleveland 4-12
 
NFC Central
Green Bay 13-3
Minnesota 10-6
Baltimore 9-7
San Francisco 5-11
Detroit 4-12
Chicago 3-13
 
AFC East
Carolina 15-1
Boston 10-6
Miami 7-9
Atlanta 6-10
Buffalo 4-12
NY Jets 3-13
 
AFC Central
Denver 12-4
San Diego 11-5
Cincinnati 9-7
Oakland 9-7
Houston 7-9
Kansas City 4-12

 

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Carolina Undefeated in 2010?

The latest DTC simulation results show a complete domination of the USAFL by the Carolina Panthers. Green Bay, who was showing promise in recent tests, fell to 3rd. The DTC scientists say the results changed because they added kickers and punters to all teams that did not have them (through round 9, pick 11).
 
NFC East
Pittsburgh 12-4
New York (N) 9-7
Philadelphia 9-7
Dallas 9-7
Washington 6-10
Cleveland 4-12
 
NFC Central
Green Bay 12-4
Minnesota 10-6
Baltimore 10-6
Detroit 6-10
Chicago 4-12
San Francisco 4-12
 
AFC East
Carolina 15-1
Boston 10-6
Miami 7-9
Atlanta 6-10
Buffalo 4-12
New York (A) 2-14
 
AFC Central
Denver 13-3
San Diego 12-4
Oakland 9-7
Cincinnati 9-7
Houston 5-11
Kansas City 4-12

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Green Bay surpasses Carolina

Results based on a 20 season simulation using picks through the 8th pick of round 4. The schedule was computer generated. An official schedule (hint, hint) would improve the accuracy of the simulation results.
 
There are two distinct tiers among the top 6 teams. Green Bay, Carolina and San Diego occupy the most elite tier and Denver, Pittsburgh and Boston make up the next tier.
 
For the first time, Green Bay edges out Carolina for the top team by a tiny 8 game margin (282 wins vs 275 wins) with San Diego close behind with 266 wins. Denver starts Tier II with 245 wins followed by Pittsburgh (233) and Boston (229).
 
NFC East
Pittsburgh 12-4
New York (N) 10-6
Philadelphia 10-6
Dallas 7-9
Washington 5-11 
 
NFC Central
Green Bay 14-2
Minnesota 9-7
Baltimore 7-9
Detroit 7-9
Chicago 4-12
San Francisco 4-12
 
AFC East
Carolina 14-2
Boston 11-5
Miami 8-8
Atlanta 6-10
Buffalo 5-11
New York (A) 1-15
 
AFC Central
San Diego 13-3
Denver 12-4
Cincinnati 9-7
Oakland 8-8
Houston 7-9
Kansas City 4-12

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Lastest Simulation Results

These are the results of a 10 season simulation with the first 13 picks placed into their respective teams lineups.
 
NFC East
Pittsburgh 11-5
New York (N) 11-5
Philadelphia 9-7
Dallas 8-8
Washington 6-10
 
NFC Central
Green Bay 12-4
Minnesota 9-7
Baltimore 9-7
Detroit 7-9
San Francisco 3-13
Chicago 2-14
 
AFC East
Carolina 14-2
Boston 11-5
Atlanta 7-9
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 5-11
New York (A) 1-15
 
AFC Central
Denver 13-3
San Diego 13-3
Oakland 10-6
Cincinnati 8-8
Houston 6-10
Kansas City 5-11
 
 
 
 

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Needs of Top Ten Picks

1. Boston Patriots
 
The Patriots acquired the first overall pick from Baltimore. They are already in excellent shape with no starters rated less than a 6. But they could upgrade at tackle (Oher-8), OLB (Cushing-9), CB (Powers-7) or safety (Byrd-9).
 
2. Philadelphia Eagles
 
Philadelphia's most glaring needs are at WR and DE. They could use upgrades at guard and OLB along with a QB of the future to replace Favre next season. WR Percy Harvin (60 receptions) looks like the best bet.
 
3. Houston Texans
 
The Texans' need improvements on the lines on both sides of the ball, especially the defensive line. The best rating available at those positions will be sixes so the best choice may be to just take the best player available at any position.
 
4. Cincinnati Bengals
 
Cincy is already a much improved squad from the 4-12 team last year. Positions needing improvement are tackle and safety where 5 ratings have starting positions. S Louis Delmas (7) would work. Several 6 rated tackles are also available but that would be a reach. Another potential best player regardless of need pick is possible.
 
5. New York Giants
 
The Giants are midgets on the defensive line but the pool only has aging DT Kelly Gregg (7) that is rated higher than a 6. There's a weakness at safety (5) that Delmas would fill. An upgrade at WR would be good as well. Austin Collie (60 receptions) or Jeremy Maclin (55 catches) would help.
 
 
6. Buffalo Bills
 
Buffalo's offense requires major rebuilding starting with QB. Kerry Collins is not the future,  Mark Sanchez or Matthew Stafford are.
 
7. Kansas City Chiefs
 
Major defensive needs on the Chiefs : DE, LB, CB. How about ILB James Laurinatis (7)? OLBs Clay Matthews and Brian Orakpo (8 ratings) could be available as well.
 
8. Oakland Raiders
 
The Raiders' trend is up, perhaps 10 wins this season. The defense is decent albeit with some weaknesses (DT, S) but the offensive line is terrible. And Darren McFadden's 3.4 average compounds the running game woes. Tom Brady throwing to Brandon Marshall (101 catches) and Miles Austin (81 catches) is nice but a running game is needed. Best value would be an RB like Beanie Wells (793 yds, 4.5 avg) or a pass catching one like LeSean McCoy (637 yds, 4.1 avg, 40 receptions). Otherwise, start fixing the offensive line with average guys since only sixes will be available.
 
9. San Francisco 49ers
 
SanFran is still a year or two away from escaping mediocrity. The defensive line and secondary are terrible. They have an additional pick in both the 2nd and 4th rounds. Draft defense and draft often. The question is whether they draft best overall in the first round or do they just start filling holes.
 
 
10. Cleveland Browns
 
The Browns have a decent amount of talent. I expect their simulation numbers not to be as dismal after the draft. They still own all their draft picks and must use the early ones to draft offensive tackles and a defensive line.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Monday, May 10, 2010

Latest Simulation: Green Bay Rises

The Green Bay Packers narrowly passed the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 20 season simulation using the latest league files. The Packers won 231 games over 20 seasons, the Steelers 228. The next closest team in the NFC was Dallas with 202 victories. This puts Green Bay and Pittsburgh on a collision course for the NFC Championship.
The Carolina Panthers are still the dominant team in the league and will easily defeat all comers, from the first game to the Super Bowl. They won 293 games, 16% more than the next closest team, San Diego, who won 251 games.
So, at this point, although Pittsburgh's road to another Super Bowl loss is jeopardized by Green Bay, the Tri-peat of Carolina is in the bag.
There was no shuffling in the division orders except for Green Bay and Minnesota. Here's how they break down:
NFC East
Pittsburgh (11-5)
Dallas (10-6)
NY Giants (9-7)
Washington (8-8)
Philadelphia (8-8)
Cleveland (4-12)
NFC Center
Green Bay (12-4)
Minnesota (10-6)
Baltimore (8-8)
Detroit (7-9)
San Francisco (4-12)
Chicago (2-14)
AFC East
Carolina (15-1)
Boston (11-5)
Atlanta (8-8)
Miami (7-9)
Buffalo (5-11)
NY Jets (1-15)
AFC Central
San Diego (13-3)
Denver (12-4)
Cincinnati (10-6)
Oakland (10-6)
Houston (5-11)
Kansas City (3-13)

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Prediction: Three in a Row for Carolina

The Dallas Technology Center predicts that the Carolina Panthers will win Super Bowl VI over the Pittsburgh Steelers. While the Panthers will celebrate theire 3rd championship in a row, the Steelers will be forced to endure the embarrassment of losing their 4th Super Bowl...in a row.
 
That prediction is based upon 12 seasons of simulation using a schedule generated by the Action software. Of course, this is preliminary, based on pre-cut, pre-draft rosters and an unofficial schedule.
 
But it will be correct.
 
San Diego will be the only other obstacle in Carolina's championship season. The rest of us are destined to be roadkill. Following are the predictions overall which the DTC will not guarantee because of the variables.
 
But they will be close.
 
 
NFC East
Pittsburgh (13-3)
Dallas (11-5)
NY Giants (9-7)
Washington (8-8)
Cleveland (3-13)
 
NFC Central
Minnesota (11-5)
Green Bay (10-6)
Baltimore (6-7)
Detroit (6-10)
San Francisco (4-12)
Chicago (2-14)
 
AFC East
Carolina (15-1)
Boston (11-5)
Atlanta (9-7)
Miami (6-10)
Buffalo (4-12)
NY Jets (1-15)
 
AFC Central
San Diego (13-3)
Denver (11-5)
Cincinnati (9-7)
Oakland (8-8)
Houston (6-10)
Kansas City (3-13)
 
 
 
 

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Donelson Back to Back

Hang up the season already boys, Donelson is all but assured back to back championships. It is a done deal. Colossus recommends you plan for 2011 in your draft and trades.
 
Oh, you can make a go for it. But when you are crying in your Wheaties in late January 2011, don't complain to the mighty Colossus.
 
It has spoken. You have been warned.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

OLB Brian Cushing is Expected 1st pick

In a poll with low voter turnout, Pro Bowl OLB Brian Cushing was the near unanimous choice for the first overall pick in the 2010 TTFBA draft. OLB James Laurinaitis came in a distant second.
 
Next poll - early early pre-season prediction for the next TTFBA champ. Will Donelson repeat? Or will Super Bowl runner-up Fresno, who made it to the Super Bowl under David Pittner's first complete season as GM/Coach take it? What about Wausau? Greg Smith led the Bombers, a team that wasn't even expected to make a playoffs, to within 10 points of the Super Bowl. Will Tillman return to the Big Game after a year's hiatus? Denver and Dallas, both 11-5 teams in 2009 could make a run for it.
 
Or will it be a team that rises for the ashes like the Donelson Warriors who went from worst to first in a single season. 2-14 in 2008, 16-0 and the title in 2009. Ones to look at in this category are North Carolina, Death Valley, Mt. Pilot, NW Missouri and Nashville. Except for North Carolina, all of these teams graded well last season which means they overachieved due to excellent coach staffs. NW Missouri has appeared in a record 6 Super Bowls, winning twice. Expect them back.
 
North Carolina, one of the most successful franchises in TTFBA history, unashamedly tanked the season (hey, there are no rules against doing that) and received as F grade. Not even an 'E' for effort because there was no effort. They have missed the playoffs two seasons in a row now after making them for 8 straight. DVD, MTP and NAS all graded out well for the season.
 
 
 

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Commish Poll Results

New Commissioner Brandon Cox tied with Wausau owner Greg Smith in the poll for best potential commissioner for the TTFBA. Cox and Smith both garnered 7 votes. Greg English, Dallas Gladiator owner and publisher of the DTC Blog received 6 votes followed by NW Missouri head honcho Mike Rodriguez (4 votes) and Tony Donelson owner and coach of the TTFBA 2009 Champions, Donelson Warriors (3 votes). 

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Donelson Warriors : Road to the Championship

This article covers the history of the Donelson Warriors since owner/coach Tony Cox took over the franchise in 2002. DTC gives a huge chest bump thank you to Chad Weyenberg for providing such an excellent website that assisted my research for this article. The TTFBA archives, especially the team histories page (click here to see it) saved me a lot of time. Also, thanks to Tony Cox. Some information from this article is from a March 2009 interview of Mr. Cox by Colossus the SuperComputer. Mr. Cox was a good sport with his reponses which helped me put together one of my more humorous pieces. Click here to see it.

Tony Cox, known as the "Old Man" to his son, Brandon, owner of the Nashville team, joined the league in 2002, our 3rd season, talking over the 3-2 Arizona Apaches in game 6. Commish Chad Weyenberg put this in the blast to the league on September 17th introducing Mr. Cox:

Tony Cox is a friend of Wausau's Greg Smith and is an avid football fan.  Greg Smith comment's "Tony knows his football, he'll be a great addition to the league!"

Mr. Cox went 7-4 over the final games of the season, giving the Apaches a 10-6 record and the Barry Sanders division title. The Apaches advanced to the Simpson Conference championship game by crushing wild card Leon Lightning 35-13. Alas, the Apache playoff rampage was halted by the Rednecks of NW Missouri, 31-6

Cox renamed the team to the Donelson Warriors for the 2003 season and drafted DE Dwight Freeney and QB Marc Bulger, 10th and 17th overall. But the franchise would need much more help than those key players before being competitive. The Warriors would only win one game that year. They finished in the bottom 5 teams in almost every offensive and defensive statistical categories.

With the overall 1st pick in hand for the 2004 season, Cox put QB Byron Leftwich on his draft board and traded Bulger away for monster defensive lineman Richard Seymour. The Warriors were also the beneficaries of the legendary generous trading tactics of the Superior SkySnakes franchise and eventually amassed 4, count 'em 4, 2nd round draft picks. Three of the 4 were on defense (DB, DT and OLB) including DT DeWayne Robertson who would be traded for S Tank Williams in May. RB DeShaun Foster was the first pick in the 3rd round and he was traded to Muncie for, essentially, a 2nd round pick in the 2005 draft. From 2003 to 2004, the offensive line improved a few notches but the defense improved significantly, going from an overall rating of 62 to 77 - 23rd to 5th.

Donelson went 8-7-1 in 2004 and moved up to the middle of the pack offensively and defensively. The lack of a receiving corps for Leftwich and weakness against the run on defense were the main issues for the Warriors. Wins over Maryland, Mt. Pilot and division winner Kaukauna, 34-20 in week 12, provided ample evidence that Donelson was an up and coming franchise in the league. They lost to Mt. Pilot in round 1 to finish the season.

They returned to the playoffs for the next 3 seasons, posting 10-6, 12-4 and 12-4 records, winning the division title in 2006 and 2007. The Mt. Pilot Gamblers knocked them out of the playoffs in the first round again in 2005 but made it to the 2nd round before expiring in 2006 and 2007.

One of the keystones of the current Donelson team, QB Philip Rivers, was acquired from Transylvania in March 2006 for Leftwich. The Warriors were investing in Rivers, who had only thrown 22 passes the year before. Jake Plummer would be the starter for the 2006 season. The Evil Dead even added a 1st round pick with Rivers. They are currently in the Jason Campbell era over in Transylvania.

Another key player on offense, RB Steven Jackson (134 attempts, 673 yds in 2005) along with DT Kelly Gregg (7 rating) was obtained from Nashville in 2005 in return for OLB DJ Williams (7 rating) and DE Robaire Smith (6 rating). Gregg, Williams and Smith would not be on a Donelson/Nashville roster for the following season. However, Jackson has gone on to rush for an additional 6,034 yds and 37 touchdowns.

2008 was a bleak season for Donelson. The reception count dropped from 528 to 231. The base defense rating dropped from 81 to 69. They started out the season 2-1 but injuries blew up their season and they were unable to win another game, finishing 2-14

This draft, they reloaded targets for Rivers with WR Antonio Bryant (83 catches), WR Donnie Avery (53 catches) and TE John Carlson (55 catches) all in the first round. Interesting, Byron Leftwich rejoined the team in round 4. With the defense rating returned to its former glory (86!), tops in every rating category except for pass defense where they were 1 point behind Real Charleston. RB Derrick Ward and OLB Joey Porter (9 rating) was acquired from buddy Greg Smith in return for Steven Jackson, 7 rated LB Manny Lawson and 7 rated safety Chinedum Ndukwe.

This created a literally unstoppable team that averaged 36.3 pts a game, 9 more than the next team, SB runner-up Fresno and allowed only 12.4 pts a game. And as predicted on August 7, 2009 by Colossus - the Donelson Warriors won the 2010 TTFBA Super Bowl.

While researching the method for the construction of the Donelson Warrior championship team, I checked the draft and transaction records. Since I kept seeing Donelson-Nashville transactions, I decided to actually check out the statistics on them. Along with the Jackson trade mentioned earlier I also found: From 2006 to 2009, Nashville traded to Donelson 6 picks in the first three rounds: Three 1st round draft picks, one 2nd round draft picks and two 3rd round draft picks. Donelson traded to Nashville two 2nd round draft picks.

Here are the number of picks each team had in the first three rounds for the past 4 seasons:
2009: DON 6, NAS 3
2008: DON 1, NAS 0
2007: DON 1, NAS 5
2006: DON 5, NAS 0

There's something to be said about amassing draft picks but acquiring players for draft picks can be just as successful. Both teams went 30-18 over the pass 3 seasons. 

Thursday, January 28, 2010

2009 Grades

Monday, January 25, 2010

Commish Retirement

Our esteemed Commissioner is retiring after 10 seasons on the job. The DTC has posted a non-binding poll for seeing what owners/coaches we think would make good Commishioners. Please vote. More than one selection is allowed so pick all the guys you think would make good Commishioners for an ActionPC football league.
 
 
 
 

Monday, January 11, 2010

Super Bowl : Donelson Warriors vs Fresno Outlaws

So, right off the bat:
Does Fresno even have a chance against Donelson? Answer: Yes.
Is it likely? Answer: No. Very unlikely, in fact. Here are the facts:

Fresno Offense vs Donelson Defense

The 12.4 points allowed by the Donelson defense puts them among the top 10 defenses of all time in the TTFBA. Their lineup is a Who's Who of defensive players. The basic 4-3 defense that the Warriors deploy 68% of the time is rated 1st overall, run, rush, interceptions and sacks. In pass defense points they are 2nd by only 1 point to Real Charleston.

The defense points overwhelm the blocking capability of the Outlaws. Fresno's blocking points are ranked 13th for the run and 19th protecting the QB. But QB Donovan McNabb is among the best QBs in the league and his INT and sack numbers are very low. WR Roddy White is his primary target (95 receptions, 11 TDs) followed by TE Owen Daniels (71 receptions, 6 TDs). RB Maurice Jones-Drew is the primary rusher with an unimpressive 3.9 average but an impressive 15 TDs, the top RB scorer in the league.

Fresno has the 2nd ranked scoring offense in the league behind only Donelson, scoring 27.4 points per game. They consume a lot of real estate, especially through the air so the clash between these teams when Fresno has the ball should be exciting.

Donelson Offense vs Fresno Defense

Fresno's primary platoon is 3-4 which they use 38% of the time. Half of the time they are in a Nickel, Dime or Quarter defense, as the offense scores so much that opposing offenses are constantly in catchup mode. The talent is average, the highest area of rating points in pass defense points where they rank 7th with 36. But they are aggressive and cause teams to turn the ball over - a total of 39 times, the best in the league.

But they are vulnerable on the ground. RB Derrick Ward leads the best running game in the league. QB Philip Rivers, the best QB in the league spreads the wealth among a receiving corps containing 4 WRs and 2 TEs that have starter reception counts. It's such a target rich environment that there is a Warrior WR is not among the top 25 in receptions. Antonio Bryant comes in 26th with 69 receptions.

On top of the best running game and the best passing game, they also have on of the best offensive lines in the league. The beef they have gives them 41 pass protection points, which is THE best in the league. They are 4th for run blocking.

However, if there is a weakness in Donelson, it is their propensity to turn the ball over which they did 20 times during the season. Philips is the main culprit, he threw 13 interceptions and fumbled 6 times. Ward only had one fumble. Backup RB Ricky Williams had 4 so maybe Tashard Choice would be the best guy to give Ward a breather.

Donelson only turned it over once during 2 post season games and that was against Wausau, who didn't blitz very much. Denver, their other post season opponent, came after Philips several times with no luck and no turnovers.


Final Analysis

Donelson by 13. Final score: DON 27, FRE 14




Thursday, January 7, 2010

Colossus Predicts the BCS Championship Game

In a simulation of 20 games, the Texas Longhorns won 14 (70%) of them.
 
Predicted score: Texas 34, Alabama 31
 
 

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

#1 Fresno Outlaws (+2) vs #2 Tillman Rangers

The Outlaws lost at the Rangers in week 11, 27-10, when a close 10-6 Fresno lead collapsed in the 4th quarter. A fumbled punt attempt, a 50 yard TD pass and a 59 yard TD run in the fnal 8 minutes resulted in a score that does not reflect how close the game should've been. Maybe this week...
 
Fresno Offense vs Tillman Defense
Fresno is second only to the Donelson Warriors on offense but they rely on their passing game led by QB Donovan McNabb, WR Roddy White and TE Owen Daniels. Their ground game was ranked 18th in yards. This is an offense that plays to the strength of the Rangers' defense, who are among the best at shutting down opposing QBs. They are average against the run but it works because their offense is built on the run, eating up the clock, which forces opponents' offense to go to the air.
 
Dallas Gladiator RB Steve Slaton put up 118 yds against Tillman last week. The Gladiators aren't a big run team as well. If RB Maurice Jones-Drew can have a decent game perhaps Fresno can maintain their scoring power.
 
Tillman Offense vs Fresno Defense
This is not pretty at all. One of the best rushing offenses (RB Ronnie Brown, RB Chester Taylor) against one of the worst defenses against the run. But the Rangers don't have the greatest passing game (QB David Garrard) and the Outlaws aggressive style could result in turnovers. But they seemed to be blitzing when the Rangers were running which allows big chunks on the ground. Tillman is dangerous in 3WR sets with T.J. Houshmandsadeh, Dwayne Bowe and and Lance Moore. Tillman had no turnovers in the week 11 game and didn't cough up the ball much during the season. Can the Outlaws make something happen?
 
 
 
 
 

Sunday, January 3, 2010

#2 Wausau Blue Bombers (+16) @ #1 Donelson Warriors

Please leave a comment or send me an email if you read this. You can give a review if you want but I'm really just wanting an idea how many actually read this besides the competing teams (assuming they do. They DO, don't they???). Make it a one worder: "Read." "Sucked." "Awesome", I don't care. Just read it, baby, read it. Thanks, I'd appreciate that. These playoff ones take about an hour to do. I get into it but I don't have to get into it THAT much. Thanks. (Signed: the DTC Geeks of Predictology).
 
So, here we have the 2009 TTFBA Champions playing the upstart Blue Bombers. A team that we could've crowned weeks ago against a team that just refused to go away the entire season. Unfortunately, that courageous run is coming to an end with this game.
 
Wausau (10-6) advanced to this game with an upset of New England, 30-18. Brett Favre and the coaching staff were all kissy-kissy because he happily allowed RB Steven Jackson to carry the ball 28 times, only the second time this season Jackson had that many touches. His average was not spectacular (3.5) and he didn't score but he was enough of a distraction (99 yds, 4 first downs) that he factored into New England's defensive game plan with constant keying. Favre's trust in the defensive coordinator paid off because he had his most efficient outing for the season going 14 for 18, 198 yds, 0 interceptions and 2 TD passes, both of them to Larry Fitzgerald on short slants of 26 and 41 yds while New England keyed on Jackson.
 
Donelson (16-0) made it here with a pick fest over Denver's Chad Pennington (8 of 19, 83 yds, 3 ints, 1 td, 30.6 qb rating). All 3 interceptions led to Warrior touchdowns, making up 21 of the 37 points in the 37-7 drubbing. The Dynamite did not go down with some fireworks though. Down 13-zip with 3:23 left in the 1st quarter, they marched down to their only score basically on RB Adrian Peterson's back (22 carries, 52 yds,  2.4 avg, no touchdowns) on a 19 play drive featuring 3, count 'em 3 successful 4th down attempts. 13 of Peterson's carries for the game came on this drive. Pennington connected with TE Tony Gonzalez for the TD closing the game to 13-7 midway through the 2nd quarter. But by the end of the half, Donelson had pulled away 27-7 thanks to a pair of painfully pathetic Pennington passes. (Thank you, thank you - I hear the groans.)
 
Donelson Offense vs Wausau Defense
 
I've put off as long as I can. Like I said in the Denver-Donelson pre-game write-up, the Warriors are the best offensive team in the league. You don't stop them. They average 36.3 points per game. Look at those scores during the season, no one has kept them below...wait, wait a second. Trivia question: What team was the only one to keep Donelson under 21 points this season.
 
Answer: The Wausau Blue Bombers. What on earth? The 20-13 Wausau loss in week 10 was the closest game Donelson had the entire season. How do 23 point underdogs only lose by 7? Are these guys buds or something? Did Donelson take it easy on the Blue Bombers, loading up the ack-ack with squaw feathers instead of sending the Warriors of the tribe to take care of business? It doesn't look like it.
 
Donelson, perhaps noting Wausau's studly run defense (2nd in the league, allowing only 75.6 yds per game) choose to make it an air game, relying on QB Philip Rivers to have the honors. Less than 2 minutes in - Donelson is up 7 zip. But the defense hangs in there. The only TD scored by the offense was that first drive. The other TD was from a 98 yard kick return in the 4th quarter.
 
A lot of the credit must go to the Blue Bomber offense, who helped the defense by keeping the ball as long as possible (39 minutes).  Still, the Warrior offense averages 3.8 touchdowns per game, holding them to just one is quite a feat.
 
The pass defense just isn't there. If Donelson gets enough drives, the bows and arrows of the Warriors are going to bring down Bombers.
 
 
Wausau Offense vs Donelson Defense
 
Ugh. Once again, a stat comparison jumped out at me checking out when Wausau has the ball. This is one of the very worst red zone scoring teams going up against one of the very best red zone defenses. Larry Fitzgerald will take it home from anywhere on the field. You better not be mesmerized by 3.5 yarder Stephen Jackson and let Fitzgerald rip you up. But one has no idea when that's going to happen.
 
But the Donelson defense suppresses run and passes equally awesomely (awkwardly presentedly I know). They only allowed 12.4 points per game. Wausau, nor any other team are going anywhere against this defense. It's surprising 4 teams scored more than 21 points on them.
 
I just don't see how Jackson gets another 100 yds against the Warrior defense. In the week 10 game, run stuffer DL Richard Seymour (8 rating) was out along with starting CB Rashean Mathis (8 rating). The simulations show a score of 30-14. I don't know how Wausau scores two field goals, must less two touchdowns.