Wausau Blue Bombers (+2) vs New England Generals

The home team Harris division winner Wausau (10-6) are 2 point underdogs against New England (9-7), the Tony Dorsett division champ. Before I chew on the strengths and weaknesses of these teams, the DTC would like to congratulate Wausau on an excellent season. They just missed the cut of making the playoffs in the Center's pre-season simulations. Yet here they are. Colossus is not pleased. And we like that. Now on to the nitpicking... New England Offense vs Wausau Defense The Generals only averaged 20.2 pts per game during the season which is surprising when you look at the personnel involved. QB Jay Cutler (3162 yds, 62.7%, 17 tds). WRs Reggie Wayne (80 recs) and Braylon Edwards (73 recs). The running duties are shared between RB Pierre "Who?" Thomas (762 yds, 4.4 avg, 4 tds) and RB Maurice "Who?" Morris (731 yds, 4.2 avg, 5 tds) behind a very good offensive line. There's some defense in their division, mainly NW Missouri but, on average, nothing extraordinary. I checked their defensive coaching accuracy - no glaring weaknesses there. I should've checked their schedule first - losses to Tillman, Real Charleston, Steeltown, Hermitage, NW Missouri. Yes, NW Missouri. Say what you want about their showing this season, they still had one of the best defenses. The "Who?" duo are the strength of the General offense which ranked 4th in rushing, 125.1 yds per game although ranking only 10th in TDs on the ground is odd. The passing game is, putting it generously, average. The only pass stats they make the top 10 in are yards per completion (9th at 11 per) and pass completion percentage (ranked 9th at 63%). But, heh, if you rely on your ground game, maybe you don't need to pass that much. It's just important, that when you do, you make it count. If the Generals get in your red zone - fogetuhboutit 88.4% scoring (3rd) and booyah! a 53.5% Red Zone TD scoring %, ranked 7th. But, oh, what have we on the other side with the Wausau defense? What's that stat? 2nd ranked against the run, allowing only 75.6 yds per game? Hmmm? DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and DT Shaun Rogers eat unsuspecting RBs that come their way. OLB LaMarr Woodley finishes any remnants that may remain if they get by those grinders. The defense is much more lenient against the pass but, overall, they don't like people scoring (5th in the league) only giving up 17.9 points per game. So, we have strength (run) going into strength (run). But If New England can crank up that passing game ala that 4 TD party against SoCal in week 13, the Blue Bombers will be blown out of the sky. Wausau Offense vs New England Defense The Blue Bombers have a solid, if not spectacular offense headed up by QB Brett "The Immortal" Favre (3503 yds, 66.1%, 23 tds, 18 ints, 18 sks, 86.8 rating) in his prior incarnation. Mr. Favre has a high TD% (4.6%, ranked 5th) but also a high pass INT% (3.6%, ranked 20th). Yeah, remember THAT Brett Favre? The one who liked to just heave it up there, sometimes making Packer and Jet fans cringe as it made a parabola right into the hands of an opposing DB without a wide receiver in a 20 yard radius? Favre tosses it to WR Larry Fitzgerald (108 recs, 8 tds) when he's not tossing it to opposing DBs. Unfortunately, that's about the only WR of consequence on Wausau's roster. *Cough* Double team *Cough*. Sorry. A little cold there. RB Steven "Ugh the Rams" Jackson (1068 yds, 3.5 avg, 5 tds) handes the running attack. Well, not attack, more like "suggestion". A 3.5 yard average really couldn't be called an attack, could it? One of the worst in the league. They boast that and one of the worst rushing TD% in the league as well. The do score, averaging 20.5 pts per game (9th rank) but it looks like they do it from long range because their Red Zone scoring and TD% is terrible. It would be the bottom if the "Death" in Death Valley didn't refer to their own Defense. New England keeps opponents 3 points less than that, ranked 4th in the league. They have an aversion to allowing running backs much, ranking in the top 5 in all rushing categories. What a D-line: DE Justin Tuck (10 sks, 27 hurries), DT Vince Wilfork (2 sks, 6 hurries), DE Mathias Kiwanuka (8 sks, 17 hurries, 4 forced fumbles) that take down QBs with the same success they stop RBs in their tracks. 36 sacks overall. Wausau's offensive line can't keep Favre from an passing during an A.D.D. but they do keep him upright to do it. The Blue Bomber offensive line smashing against the General defensive line will be a sight to behold. And speaking of errant passes (I've mentioned Favre is prone to the occassional INT, haven't I?), General CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (4 ints, 1 for a td) will be on hand to accept any of Brett's gifts that give coaches ulcers New England is vulnerable through the air. If Favre can stay focused, not get bored, not argue with his coach, not call an audible every time coach sends in a Jackson run, not throw to Rodgers-Cromartie, CB Carlos Rogers, S Donte Whitner, nickel and dime and quarter platoon backs, the sideline judge, a Wausau cheerleader or that fat guy whose face is painted in Blue Bomber colors - then Wausau will pull an upset.

#4 Montcalm Panthers (+4) @ #1 Fresno Outlaws

Fresno (13-3) did not play Montcalm (10-6) during the regular season.   Fresno Offense vs Montcalm Defense   A very potent Fresno offensive passing machine led by QB Donovan McNabb  (28 tds, 94.3 rating) will give the Panther secondary major problems.  CB Ike Taylor has a lot of tackles and not many deflections which provide an indication that he may not be adequate to keep WR Roddy White (95 recs, 11 tds) under control.   But the Outlaw offensive line is not very good, especially in the ground game where RB Maurice Jones-Drew, the lead rusher, only average 3.9 yards per carry. He did punch it in the end zone 15 times however. Montcalm is very good against the run, they have the advantage in this matchup. But Jones-Drew's pass catching ability provides another headache in the air.   The key could be DE Alex Brown who had a dime of sacks and 20 hurries during the season. The Fresno line will have their hands full. ILB Bradie James could be a factor as well but he must be utilized more as a blitzer than he was during the season (only 3 sacks compared to 8 during the real NFL season).   In spite of Montcalm's weakness on D, they haven't allowed opponents many points (18.4 per game). They give up yards (12th ranked) but not points (6th ranked). This is one of the more interesting matchups in the playoffs.     Montcalm Offense vs Fresno Defense   The comparison that jumped out when Montcalm has the ball is on turnovers. Fresno is tops in the league at stealing the ball from opponents, especially on fumble recoveries (36) but also on interceptions (17, ranked 7th). But QB Drew Brees & Co. was not likely to turn the ball over during the season. Is Fresno's success based on making things happen like that? That could be what determines who goes to the next round.   The Panther offense revolves around Brees (28 tds, 68.3%, 97.3 rating) and WR Wes Welker (128 recs, 10 tds). RB Matt Forte (1133 yds, 3.6 yds, 11 tds) handles the ground game with an assist from RB Willie Parker (585 yds, 4.5, tds). The Montcalm offensive line is very, very good which makes Forte's 3.6 average a curious stat.   This o-line talent is required if they want to keep monster DE Trent Cole (10 sks, 34 hurries, 10 stuffs, 7 deflections, 5 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries) from creating havoc. CBs Antoine Winfield (3 ints) and CB Quentin Jammer (2 ints) lead the secondary who are frequently left without much help because of Fresno's sack freaky defensive coordinator.   The aggressive defensive style of Fresno got them to 13-3 but they gave up city blocks of yardage, among the worst in the league. The talented offensive line of Montcalm will be a primary component of an upset. The Outlaws 3 losses were against teams that have good offensive lines. The opposing QBs in these games threw for an average of 318 yds, 3 tds and a 112 QB rating.

#4 Denver Dynamite (+14) @ #1 Donelson Warriors

This year's Super Bowl champ Donelson defeated division disputant Denver twice en route to an undefeated season by an average of 35 to 18. This playoff game will make a trifecta.   Denver Offense vs Donelson Defense The Warrior defense ranked #1 in preventing opponents from scoring, onlying an average of only 12.4 points pre game. Denver has a prolific offense, ranked 4th, scoring 23.7 points per game on average. QB Chad Pennington , WR Randy Moss and RB Adrian Peterson form their own trifecta of domination. TE Tony Gonzalez (103 receptions, 7 tds) provides some matchup problems for most defenses.   The Dynamite are ranked near the bottom in number of pass attempts (20th, only 448 attempts) but they make the most of them ranking high in pass rating (4th with 95.5), completion percentage (7th at 65.4%) and passing TD percentage (4.2%, ranked 7th). The #2 rusher in the league (1425 yds, 4.3 avg, Peterson carries the load 9 tds) carries the load, opening up the passing game.   But the Donelson defense is the most talented in the league. The starting lineup only contains only player rated less than 7, Greg Ellis, rated a lowly 6. The 2009 TTFBA Champion Warriors have done well mining the free agent list and the rosters of relations during the offseason and built one of the most formidable defenses in league history. DE Dwight Freeney (9 sacks, 21 hurries), OLB Joey Porter (9 sacks, 3 hurries) and CB Charles Woodson (8 deflections, 4 interceptions) make up the 9 rated starters.   Denver's assigned homework is to study games where opponents were able to put some points up. Transylvania in week 9, for instance. The Warriors were actually losing going into the 4th quarter only to score 23 unanswered points to win 40-29.     Donelson Offense vs Denver Defense Sadly, even if a team can score on Donelson, Donelson will score at will against them, average 36 points a game - tops in the league. The Team Charts report in Action has 30 categories on offense, the Warriors rank #1 in 16 of them. They are in the top 5 in 22 of them. RB Derrick Ward's 6.1 average (1144 yds, 8 tds) abuses teams on the ground, and QB Phillip Rivers tosses to WRs Antonio Bryant and Laveranues Coles. The Warriors have 3 of top 4 players in average yards per reception. Yeah. The Dynamite may be able to blow up some teams on the run (ranked 5th, allowing 78.6 yds per game) but are average against the pass. They allowed 20 touchdowns through the air during the season, ranked 15th.   Denver gave up 283 yds a game against Rivers, although he only tossed 2 touchdowns. The week 1 loss (29-10) is interesting because, the offense only scored a single touchdown and it was on the ground. One touchdown was a fumble recovery and the rest of the points were 5 Jason Hanson field goals. But the week 14 loss (41-27), they allowed Ward 105 yards and 3 touchdowns.   OLB James Harrison (7 sks, 10 hurries and 1 int for a TD) and DE Aaron Kampman (10 sks, 13 hurries) are the key defensive players but there just aren't enough of their caliber to avoid being overwhelmed by the Warrior offense. If the Denver offense can move the ball against Donelson and the defense can hang in there like they did in week 1, maybe, just maybe we could see an upset.   But don't count on it. A 14 point spread in Action is almost impossible to overcome because team talent trumps superior coaching. These are two excellent coaches so that makes it a wash anyway. Donelson 31, Denver 17.

#3 Dallas Gladiators (+3) @ #2 Tillman Rangers

Dallas (11-5) did not play Tillman (12-4) during the regular season. Dallas Offense vs Tillman Defense The Gladiators #8 scoring offense will have problems against the #2 scoring defense of the Rangers. Dallas' running game led by Steve Slaton (975 yds, 4.5 avg, 3 tds) is ranked 12th in yards per game (102.3) and 4th in average (4.3). On paper this looks like a good match against Tillman's #12 rank against the run and running average (3.9). But, when you look at the personnel, Tillman has one of the best defenses against the run in the league. That #12th rank may be because opponents try to use a ground game because their pass defense (1st in completion percentage (55.3%), 4th in interceptions with 18, 5th in passing yards and on and on) is so tough. For just a taste, look at their complete annihilation of Montcalm Panther QB Drew Brees. As a division opponent, Mr. Brees got to face the Ranger slapdown twice. Here's his stats: 24 of 56 (43%), 2 sacks, 5 interceptions, 1 pass for 25 yard or more, 1 touchdown for a QB rating of 29.4. Yeah, Rodgers will have his hands full. He spreads it around very evenly to WRs Steve Smith, Santonio Holmes and Anthony Gonzalez. Tillman's depth at safety provides some very nice nickel and dime coverage numbers. Rodgers will be pressured by DE Adewale Ogunleye who leads the team with 10 sacks and will have to watch out for CB Ellis Hobbs is the leader in picks with 4. Tillman Offense vs Dallas Defense The Gladiators are no slouch in the pass defense department either. They are in the top 5 of most pass defense categories except, curiously, interceptions where they are average. Still, the starting DBs have 10 picks and 2 tds among them, lead by CB Ronde Barber with half of them. Karlos Dansby heads up the LB corps (6 sks) and DE Darryl Tapp is outperforming higher rated DE Darnell Dockett on the line. The Rangers are lead by QB David Garrard (260 of 410, 63.4%, 17 tds, 11 ints, 87.6 rating). He would be worse if he didn't have such standout WRs to pass to like T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Dwayne Bowe and one year wonder Lance Moore. But Tillman's offense has rarely relied on a standout QB. Instead, using the same offensive formula that has netted them 3 consective division titles and last year's championship, they deploy a stable of RBs behind a massive offensive line and pound opponents to death on the ground. RBs Ronnie Brown (899 yds, 4.3 avg, 6 tds) and Chester Taylor (360 yds, 3.2 avg, 2 tds) lead the stampede with Selvin Young getting a few carries (36) to blow things up (6.7 yard average) and even Garrard getting in the act by taking off when a pass play isn't working and scampering for an average of 5 yards. They've combined for 116 yds/game (#6) and 15 touchdowns (#5). This does not make for a pretty situation for Dallas. They are the skim on the sludge at the bottom of the barrel in run defense, ranking 20th in yards per game, 19th in rushing average (4.1) and 14th in rushing TDs allowed (12).

#5 Montcalm Panthers (+1) @ #4 Real Charleston Galacticos

The Galacticos beat Montcalm in week 10, 28-14. The Panthers made it 20-14 with 6:26 left but Real Charleston put it away with 2:00 left with a 13 screen pass from QB Kurt Warner to 2nd string WR Malcom Floyd.   Montcalm Offense vs Real Charleston Defense   The Panthers offense boasts the talent of QB Dree Brees, WR Wes Welker and RBs Matt Forte and Willie Parker fronted by an excellent offensive line. Brees tossed 27 scoring passes, 10 of them to Welker. Forte punched in 9 touchdowns on the ground. No wonder this squad ranked 4th in scoring, averaging 24.5 points a game. When these guys get in the red zone, they score more often (61.7%) than any other team in the TTFBA. Brees is rarely sacked, throws few picks and completes 70% of his passes. The flaws are nitpicky - a low rushing average (3.7) and a low yards per completion 10.3.   But Real Charleston can shut down the pass, among the tops in the league, and they aren't too shabby in stopping the run either. They like to pick (20), sack (37) and keep offenses out of the endzone (16.6 points per game, 3rd in the league). DT Marcus Stroud and DE Robert Mathis on the line, Jon Beason back at LB and CB Cortland Finnegan on the top receiver.   Real Charleston Offense vs Montcalm Defense   The Panther offense against the Galacticos defense was a great matchup but on this side, Real Charleston has the edge. QB Kurt Warner could pick apart a defense that is among the worst in the league against the pass. The average QB rating of opposing QBs against Montcalm : 91.7. Very bad. They are much better against the run which is not a strength of Real Charleston. Chris Johnson (1088 yds, 4.1 avg, 7 tds) leads the attack but it is the 15th ranked rushing offense against the 7th. Basically, the Galacticos should use Johnson to keep Montcalm from going all pass defense but just keep calling Warner to WR Greg Jennings and Warner to WR Muhson Muhammad.

#5 Hermitage Heroes (+5) @ #4 Denver Dynamite

These Sanders division rivals split their games during the season. Denver was the underdog in both games and lost in week 5 at home 27-15 and upset Hermitage in week 16, 32-28. It's interesting that Colossus had Denver the underdog at home during the regular season but now reports them as the favorite in the post season. I'm not sure why, they should be similiar. Hermitage Offense vs Denver Defense The Heroes have a very prolific offense (#3 in points) led by QB Jake Delhomme whose computer QB rating is 10 points better than his real (95.6 vs 84.7) by throwing twice as many touchdown passes (32 vs 15) thanks to WR Andre Johnson (110 receptions, 12 TDs) and WR Steve Smith (of Carolina, 80 receptions, 9 touchdowns) being on the team. RB LaDainian Tomlinson (1467 yds, 8 touchdowns) gets a boost in his average from 3.8 to 5.0 thanks to an offensive line feature G Steve Hutchinson and C Kevin Mawae. But Denver is excellent at controlling a running game, allowing 78.2 yds per game (4th in the league). Tomlinson averaged 84 yds on them. DE Aaron Smith, DE Aaron Kampman and LB James Harrison know how to plug the run. They can also plant QBs as well, which is good, because their secondary is average, allowing over 200 yards per game in the air. That matchup between the San Diego offensive line and Denver defensive line is one to watch. Denver Offense vs Hermitage Defense The Dynamite offense can put some points up as well (#6), averaging 23 points a game. WR Randy Moss and TE Anthony Gonzalez are QB Chad Pennington's primary targets, each snagging 7 touchdowns. RB Adrian Peterson rounds out the Power Quad with 1425 yds, a 4.3 average and 9 touchdowns. On paper, the Hero defense does not look adequate to handle these guys. They were 16th against the run and 19th against the pass. In week 16, the Dynamite lit up in the second half, especially the 4th quarter, and came back. But in week 5, they were held to just 3 field goals in the first half and 15 overall at HOME. Both teams would be wise to review both of those games when developing the game plan for this one.

#6 San Diego Lions (+11) @ #3 Dallas Gladiators

These Taylor division mates split their games during the regular season; Dallas won at home 35-7 in week 5 and San Diego won at home 20-14 in the final week.   Dallas Offense vs San Diego Defense   The Gladiators have an above average offense, among the top 10 in most categories. QB Aaron Rodgers throws plenty of touchdown passes (23) but shares the wealth with opposing defensive backs (16 interceptions). RB Steve Slaton handles most of the ground game. Dallas leans toward pass a bit more but Slaton has a good average (4.5) and keeps opposing defenses honest.  San Diego has a very good pass defense (5th in yards allowed) but a bad run defense (#17 in yards allowed, #19 in rushing TDs). Their success against the pass is because of the pressure they can put on QBs with DT Jay Ratliff (8 sacks),  DE Julius Peppers (13 sacks) and OLB Calvin Pace (8 sacks).     San Diego Offense vs Dallas Defense   Dallas has the advantage here. They are capable of throttling a Lion offense who was last in the league in rushing yards. San Diego uses the cadre of RBs "led" by Corey Buckhalter's 102 carries, 3.4 avg, 1 td and RB Deuce McAllister's 99 carries, 2.1 avg and 4 tds. QB Peyton Manning would be a bigger threat except that he has no other targets with more than 34 receptions except for Donald Driver (87 for the year). That 13th ranked passing attack will have problems against the 4th ranked defense in passing yards. The Gladiators don't have much significant talent on defense except for safeties Adrian Wilson and Brian Dawkins.   There's no reason why San Diego can't recreate the week 16 defeat of Dallas where the defense directly scored 14 points on fumble recoveries and setup another 3. The other field goal was set up by a pass interference penalty against Dallas. Dallas outgained San Diego 334 yds to 160 but with a defense like that, it doesn't matter. If the Gladiators can limit turnovers, the game is theirs.

#6 San Pedro Bulldogs (+2) @ #3 New England Generals

San Pedro Offense vs New England Defense   Bulldog QB Matt Cassel was among the top QBs in the league in attempts and completions (374 of 550 (68%), 3740 yds) but didn't score much (15 touchdowns, ranked 15th in the league). But he should do well against a New England defense ranked 17th in passing yards allowed and passing TDs allowed. But the Generals' are sack masters with 35 for the season, ranked 2nd in the league.   But New England is very tough against the run, ranked 1st, allowing 69.4 yds average per game and only 6 TDs. If the run-suffing line, featuring Justin Tuck and Vince Wolfork, can shut down RB DeAngelo Williams then San Pedro goes one dimensional. Cassel may complete some but he will slammed to the turf several times because their o-line was one of the worst in the league in allowing sacks (37).   New England Offense vs San Pedro Defense   This is an interesting matchup, the #2 rushing offense against the #3 rushing defense.  In the air, it's an average New England passing attack led by QB Jay Cutler (287 of 458, 62.7%, 3162 yds, 17 TDs, 18 Ints) vs an average San Pedro pass defense led by S Nick Collins. So, it's the Generals' rushing by a committee of 4 vs the Bulldog Wall with LB Kirk Morrison and DT Mike Patterson. But DT Casey Hampton is injured, that could provide some opportunities on the ground.

2009 Playoffs Rnd 1 Point Spreads

Week 16 Accuracy: 7 out of 12 (58%) Season Accuracy: 129 out of 192 (67%)   Please check back later for more in depth converage of these games.   Payton Conference San Pedro Bulldogs (+2) @ New England Generals Hermitage Heroes (+5) @ Denver Dynamite   Simpson Conference Montcalm Panthers (+1) vs Real Charleston Galacticos San Diego Lions (+11) @ Dallas Gladiators

Payton Conference Clearer

1. Donelson (16-0)
2. Wausau (10-6)
3. Winner of Denver (10-5) - Hermitage (9-6)
4. Loser of Denver - Hermitage.
5. New England (9-7)
6. Sam Pedro Bulldogs.

Hermitage has tie-breaker over New England by defeating them in week 9.

Simpson Getting Clearer

1. Fresno (13-3)
2. Tillman (12-4)
3. Dallas (11-5)
4 or 5. Montcalm (10-6)
4 or 5. Real Charleston (9-6)
6. San Diego (8-8)

Simpson Playoff Correction

There was an error in the tie-breaker stated in the last post regarding San Diego and Steeltown. Both San Diego and Steeltown won in week 16 giving them 8-8 records. The prior post stated that Steeltown would win the tie-breaker due to common games going 5-5 vs 5-6. However, I didn't take into account that the Common Games report in Action had already included San Diego's loss to Fresno. So, in actuality the records in common games for both teams is 5-5. This makes net points the tie breaker and San Diego has the significant advantage there.   Therefore, San Diego won the 6th seed in the Simpson conference by defeating Dallas.

Week 16 Point Spreads

Week 15 Accuracy: 10 out of 12 (83%) Season Accuracy: 122 out of 180 (68%) +02 (+03) Knoxville (5-10) vs Wausau (9-6) +02 (+00) Dallas (11-4) at San Diego (7-8) +03 (+05) North Carolina (3-12) at Dayton (5-10) +03 (+02) Tillman (11-4) vs Montcalm (10-5) +07 (+09) Steeltown (7-8) vs Fresno (13-2) +08 (+08) Mt. Pilot (5-10) at Transylvania (5-10) +08 (+10) Death Valley (4-11) vs Real Charleston (9-6) +09 (+05) Denver (10-5) at Hermitage (9-6) +09 (+06) NW Missouri (4-11) at New England (9-6) +11 (+09) SoCal (4-11) at San Pedro(B) (8-7) +13 (+09) Nashville (6-9) vs Great Lakes (7-8) +22 (+27) San Pedro(C) (4-11) vs Donelson (15-0) Payton Conference Playoff Situation 1. Donelson (15-0). 2 or 3. Wausau (9-6). 2nd seed with win. 2 or 3. New England (9-6). 2nd seed with WAU loss. 4 or 5. Denver (10-5). 4th seed with defeat of HER 4 or 5. Hermitage (9-6). 4th seed with defeat of DEN. 6. San Pedro B (8-7). Wausau Has tie-breaker over San Pedro Bulldogs due to common games. Has tie-breaker over New England in common games if they win. New England Has tie-breaker in common games over Wausau if Wausau loses. Hermitage Has tie-breaker over San Pedro Bulldogs due to defeating them in week 11. Has tie-breaker over Denver due to sweeping them during the season. Simpson Conference Playoff Situation What a mess! It's great! Tillman and Dallas are battling for the 2nd seed, Montcalm and Real Charleston are battling for the 4th seed. Steeltown, San Diego and Great Lakes are fighting for their lives. Interesting game is Fresno vs Steeltown. Fresno is the 1st seed lock but Steeltown must pull off the upset to make the playoffs, they are out if they lose. Will Fresno coast? 1. Fresno (13-2). 2 or 3. Tillman (11-4). 2nd seed with win and DAL loss. 2 or 3. Dallas (11-4). 2nd seed with win or TIL loss. 4 or 5. Montcalm (10-5). 4th seed with win. 4 or 5. Real Charleston (9-6). 4th seed with win and MON loss. Steeltown (7-8). 6th seed with win. San Diego (7-8). 6th seed with win and STE loss or STE and GLM losses. Great Lakes (7-8). 6th seed with win and STE and SD losses. Dallas Has the tie-breaker over Tillman going 4-2 vs 3-3 in common games. Real Charleston Has the tie-breaker over Montcalm, defeating them in week 10. San Diego Has tie-breaker over Great Lakes due to division record. Has tie-breaker over Steeltown should they both lose due to net points (-46 vs -97). Steeltown Has tie-breaker over Great Lakes due to defeating them in week 15. Has tie-breaker over San Diego if they both win going 5-5 vs 5-6 in common games. .