#4 Montcalm Panthers (+4) @ #1 Fresno Outlaws

Fresno (13-3) did not play Montcalm (10-6) during the regular season.   Fresno Offense vs Montcalm Defense   A very potent Fresno offensive passing machine led by QB Donovan McNabb  (28 tds, 94.3 rating) will give the Panther secondary major problems.  CB Ike Taylor has a lot of tackles and not many deflections which provide an indication that he may not be adequate to keep WR Roddy White (95 recs, 11 tds) under control.   But the Outlaw offensive line is not very good, especially in the ground game where RB Maurice Jones-Drew, the lead rusher, only average 3.9 yards per carry. He did punch it in the end zone 15 times however. Montcalm is very good against the run, they have the advantage in this matchup. But Jones-Drew's pass catching ability provides another headache in the air.   The key could be DE Alex Brown who had a dime of sacks and 20 hurries during the season. The Fresno line will have their hands full. ILB Bradie James could be a factor as well but he must be utilized more as a blitzer than he was during the season (only 3 sacks compared to 8 during the real NFL season).   In spite of Montcalm's weakness on D, they haven't allowed opponents many points (18.4 per game). They give up yards (12th ranked) but not points (6th ranked). This is one of the more interesting matchups in the playoffs.     Montcalm Offense vs Fresno Defense   The comparison that jumped out when Montcalm has the ball is on turnovers. Fresno is tops in the league at stealing the ball from opponents, especially on fumble recoveries (36) but also on interceptions (17, ranked 7th). But QB Drew Brees & Co. was not likely to turn the ball over during the season. Is Fresno's success based on making things happen like that? That could be what determines who goes to the next round.   The Panther offense revolves around Brees (28 tds, 68.3%, 97.3 rating) and WR Wes Welker (128 recs, 10 tds). RB Matt Forte (1133 yds, 3.6 yds, 11 tds) handles the ground game with an assist from RB Willie Parker (585 yds, 4.5, tds). The Montcalm offensive line is very, very good which makes Forte's 3.6 average a curious stat.   This o-line talent is required if they want to keep monster DE Trent Cole (10 sks, 34 hurries, 10 stuffs, 7 deflections, 5 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries) from creating havoc. CBs Antoine Winfield (3 ints) and CB Quentin Jammer (2 ints) lead the secondary who are frequently left without much help because of Fresno's sack freaky defensive coordinator.   The aggressive defensive style of Fresno got them to 13-3 but they gave up city blocks of yardage, among the worst in the league. The talented offensive line of Montcalm will be a primary component of an upset. The Outlaws 3 losses were against teams that have good offensive lines. The opposing QBs in these games threw for an average of 318 yds, 3 tds and a 112 QB rating.