Thursday, December 17, 2009

#5 Hermitage Heroes (+5) @ #4 Denver Dynamite

These Sanders division rivals split their games during the season. Denver was the underdog in both games and lost in week 5 at home 27-15 and upset Hermitage in week 16, 32-28. It's interesting that Colossus had Denver the underdog at home during the regular season but now reports them as the favorite in the post season. I'm not sure why, they should be similiar.

Hermitage Offense vs Denver Defense

The Heroes have a very prolific offense (#3 in points) led by QB Jake Delhomme whose computer QB rating is 10 points better than his real (95.6 vs 84.7) by throwing twice as many touchdown passes (32 vs 15) thanks to WR Andre Johnson (110 receptions, 12 TDs) and WR Steve Smith (of Carolina, 80 receptions, 9 touchdowns) being on the team. RB LaDainian Tomlinson (1467 yds, 8 touchdowns) gets a boost in his average from 3.8 to 5.0 thanks to an offensive line feature G Steve Hutchinson and C Kevin Mawae.

But Denver is excellent at controlling a running game, allowing 78.2 yds per game (4th in the league). Tomlinson averaged 84 yds on them. DE Aaron Smith, DE Aaron Kampman and LB James Harrison know how to plug the run. They can also plant QBs as well, which is good, because their secondary is average, allowing over 200 yards per game in the air. That matchup between the San Diego offensive line and Denver defensive line is one to watch.

Denver Offense vs Hermitage Defense

The Dynamite offense can put some points up as well (#6), averaging 23 points a game. WR Randy Moss and TE Anthony Gonzalez are QB Chad Pennington's primary targets, each snagging 7 touchdowns. RB Adrian Peterson rounds out the Power Quad with 1425 yds, a 4.3 average and 9 touchdowns. On paper, the Hero defense does not look adequate to handle these guys. They were 16th against the run and 19th against the pass. In week 16, the Dynamite lit up in the second half, especially the 4th quarter, and came back. But in week 5, they were held to just 3 field goals in the first half and 15 overall at HOME. Both teams would be wise to review both of those games when developing the game plan for this one.



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