Conference Championships Point Spreads

NFC Championship Game: Green Bay Packers +8 at New York Giants

AFC Championship Game: Denver Broncos +9 at Oakland Raiders

Conference Semi: DEN @ SD

1. New York Giants (13-3)

2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3) Lost to Green Bay 31-21

4. Washington Redskins (12-4)

5. San Francisco 49ers (8-8) Lost to Washington 31-16

 

1. San Diego Chargers (14-2)

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7) Lost to Oakland 34-16

3. Oakland Raiders (12-4)

4. Denver Broncos (11-5)

5. Houston Oilers (10-6) Lost to Denver 31-20

 

Denver (12-5) +8 at San Diego (14-2)

 

The Chargers have a significant lead in overall matchups posting a 10-3 record over Denver since 2007, when John Conners took over the Broncos, including two playoff games and both games this season. However, the Broncos came into their own last year, sweeping the San Diego in the regular season and then defeating them in the AFC Championship game ultimately losing to Green Bay in the Super Bowl.

 

DEN Offense vs SD Defense

The Broncos have a powerful ground game with the #2 RB in the league Chris Johnson (1,542 yds, 11 tds, 4.8 avg) which sets up an efficient passing attack led by the two headed dragon of  QB Jon Kitna (2,567 yds, 66% completion, 21 tds, 5 ints, 104.7 rating) and Jason Campbell (2,191 yds, 63.7%, 18 tds, 7 ints, 97.4 rating). By QB rating, these are the #3 and #7 QBs in the league. WR Reggie Wayne is the primary passing target (98 catches, 15 tds, 15.3 yds/catch). TE Vernon Davis is a distance second on the reception chart with 58 which makes rotates a lot of attention onto Wayne. They are only #8 in scoring. That's not bad but it isn't good enough against the top defense in land.

 

San Diego only allows 14.6 points a game. They are similiar to the Washington Redskins - a powerful offense puts pressure on the opposition to go to the air and the defense grounds it. 34 sacks, 14 picks led by DE Dwight Freeney (11 sacks) and CB Eric Weddle (4 interceptions). After squeaking by Denver in week 3, 35-31, they shut them out in week 12, 23-zip, allowing only 100 yards offense.

 

SD Offense vs DEN Defense

And if a crushing defense wasn't impossible enough to deal with, Denver has to face one of the top passing offenses in the league featuring QB Philip Rivers (4,171 yds, 37 tds, 8 ints) and WRs Larry Fitzgerald (68 catches, 6 tds) and Jennings (58 receptions, 11 tds). Thousand yard rusher Arian Foster (1,070 yds, 6 tds, 4.1 avg) provides plenty of distraction to keep defenses honest on the ground. In spite of not having a great run defense (#14, allowing 110 yds a game), the Bronco defense was able to contain Foster in both games...but not Rivers. Denver looks very bad against the pass, with only a few pass defense categories barely ranked #10 with most, like pass yards allowed, yards per completion, pass interception and sack percentages, #18 or higher. Of course, if your division has Tom Brady and Philip Rivers, your pass defense statistics are bound to not look too hot.

 

The Broncos may put up a good game but will eventually succomb to the eventual Super Bowl champ, the mighty San Diego Chargers.

Conference Semi: WAS @ NYG

1. New York Giants (13-3)

2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3) Lost to Green Bay 31-21

4. Washington Redskins (12-4)

5. San Francisco 49ers (8-8) Lost to Washington 31-16

 

1. San Diego Chargers (14-2)

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7) Lost to Oakland 34-16

3. Oakland Raiders (12-4)

4. Denver Broncos (11-5)

5. Houston Oilers (10-6) Lost to Denver 31-20

 

 

Washington (13-4) +1 at New York (13-3)

 

This is the first time these division rivals have met in the playoffs. They split games this season. The Redskins won 31-20 in week 3, the Giants won 38-17 in week 12. Washington has a slight edge 8-6 in overall clashes.

 

NYG Offense vs WAS Defense

The Giants have a pass leaning offense led by QB Josh Freeman (3,034 yds, 28 tds, 5 ints, 101.1 rating), WR Hakeem Nicks (80 catches, 15 tds) and RB Felix Jones (958 yds, 4.3 avg, 5 tds). They were #4 in scoring averaging 25.4 points/game and rarely turn the ball over (+17 turnover ratio).

 

The Redskins have one of the best pass defenses in the league, ranking #1 in pass completion percentage (only 55.4%) and sacks (44). DE Jared Allen leads the team in sacks (12) followed by Trent Cole on the other end and DT Jonathan Babineaux who each have 9. This type of defense is the perfect balance to their powerful offense since teams frequently find themselves trailing and are forced to go to the air.

 

WAS Offense vs NYG Defense

The Washington offense is in the top 5 in almost a dozen categories including #1 in passing yards, #2 in net yards, #2 in points (26.4), #3 in rushing TDs (16). At the helm is QB Aaron Rodgers (4,162 yds, 28 tds, 18 ints, 92.3 rating) whose primary target is WR Terrell Owens (72 catches, 9 tds) and TE Tony Scheffler (53 catches, 2tds). Deep threat WR Nate Washington has terrorized secondaries all year with 48 receptions, 10 tds, averaging 21.5 yards a catch. Knowshon Moreno (762 yds, 6 tds, 3.8 avg) is the primary RB.

 

The Giants defense has mixed statistics against a passing team. Although they are #16 in passing yards allowed per game (211.4),  they are #3 in pass rating (76.2) and #4 in passing TDs allowed (17). Perhaps their tendency to abruptly interrupt an offense drive with an INT (#1 in the league with 19 picks) or putting QBs on their backs (#5 in the league with 32 sacks) explains the odd numbers. OLB Cameron Wake leads the league in sacks with 17. However, picks and sacks did not make much difference in their week 3 loss, where Rodgers was picked off 3 times and sacked twice. In week 12, he was never sacked, only picked once and yet New York was the victor.

 

You just never know with these two teams.

 

Stay tuned for Denver (12-5) +8 at San Diego (14-2)...

Round 2 Point Spreads

Special Thanks to Commishioner Cliff Dolgins and sportsattic.com host Chad Weyenberg for keeping the USAFL site up to date. The ability to look up historical records on the website instead of PCAction saved me a signficant amount of time in writing these previews.

 

1. New York Giants (13-3)

2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)

4. Washington Redskins (12-4)

5. San Francisco 49ers (8-8)

 

1. San Diego Chargers (14-2)

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7)

3. Oakland Raiders (12-4)

4. Denver Broncos (11-5)

5. Houston Oilers (10-6)

 

Green Bay (10-6) +4 vs Pittsburgh (13-3)

Pittsburgh has only lost to the Packers twice since the inception of the league, in 2009 and 2010. They've defeated them 8 times, including two Conference Championship games and a Conference Semi-Final game. Green Bay lost this year in OT, 30-24.

 

GB Offense vs PIT Defense

The Packers are the most prolific offense in the league, averaging 26.9 points a game. All Stud players Peyton Manning (3,957 yds, 34 TDs), Ray Rice (1,260 yds, 10 TDs) and Roddy White (120 catches, 17 TDs) smack down on opposing defenses with a demanding, complex, exciting playbook consisting of short passes and handing Rice the ball. Against Pittsburgh, Manning threw 100% short passes. Green Bay is one of at least 3 teams in the playoffs who have found out how to maximize the exploitation of PC Action's game engine. Great coaching, even if the play-by-play is rather monotonous.

 

This is a great matchup because Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses, allowing only 15.4 points/game. They are 5th in both passing and running yards allowed. The harass opposing QBs by picking them off (17 times) and sacking them (34 times). Manning had one of his worse outings of the season in Week 8 against the Steel Curtian, throwing 3 interceptions. But he still got 222 yds and 2 TDs. Most defenses just pray they can contain the Pack and wind up just being a bump in the road to Manning & Co. Pittsburgh has the persomnel to do a little more.

 

PIT Offense vs GB Defense

When GB is on offense, it's a close matchup, but going this direction, Pittsburgh has the edge. The Packers' top statistical areas on defense are Pass Attempts, Rushing Attempts and Penalties. This is evidence that this could be a "the best defense is a good offense" team. When a team's offense is so strong, it keeps opposing offenses off the field. In other defensive areas, like the most important one Points/Game, they only rank 17th, allowing 21.4 points per game. They are in the bottom 4 teams in the league in rushing TDs allowed (17), turnovers (14), interceptions (7) and yards allowed per passing attempt (7.5). Enter Mr. Ben Roethlisberger, a guy who knows how to pass.

 

Pittsburgh doesn't have any super star receivers but Derrick Mason (72 catches, 6 TDs) and Hines Ward (71 catches, 7 TDs) are excellent anchors to Big Ben's cast of targets. On the ground, Cedric Benson (1,189, 3.8 avg, 7 TDs) is the workhorse and Tim Hightower (572 yds, 4.2 avg, 6 TDs) is the flash. These two aren't as frightening as Ray Rice but they are enough of a threat to provide a balanced offense and open up the air.

 

 

 

Atlanta (9-7) +11 vs Oakland (12-4)

Like Green Bay and Pittsburgh, this is a clash between two original USAFL owners. In this matchup, Atlanta has...let's see, let me say it in trash talk terms...Atlanta has OWNED Oakland, defeating them during the regular season for 6 straight seasons. Until 2011, when Oakland, in their quest for their 2nd playoff appearance ever, beat them 20-3 in week 11. Incidently, 11 also happens to be how many points the Raiders are favored by.

 

ATL Offense vs OAK Defense

Well, well, well. The 21st ranked scoring offense against the 5th ranked defense. That explains why the Falcons only got 3 points in their regular season game. But they shouldn't feel too bad, Oakland only allowed an average of 17 points per game. They are smothering on pass defense which happens to be Atlanta's strength led by QB Matt Schaub (3,918 yds, 18 TDs), WR Pierre "Frenchie" Garcon (72 catches, 6 TDs) and H-Back Dustin Keller (66 catches, 3 TDs). To make things worse, they have one of the worst ground games around so they can't exploit one of the few chinks in the Raider defensive armor. Let's move on, this is depressing...

 

OAK Offense vs ATL Defense

Ah ha! Now, here's where it gets interesting. A lot of teams whithered under the barrage of Tom Brady (3,685 yds, 30 TDs) passes to Dwayne Bowe (75 catches, 8 TDs), Miles Austin (63 catches, 5 TDs) and, wait, where'd he go? Brandon Marshall (50 catches, 7 TDs). Yes, Mr. Marshall, seemed to go girly-boy for several games. Hopefully, his NFL 86 receptions will show up for a playoff game? The Falcon defense, though, hung in there, limiting him to only 1 TD and slamming him to the turf twice. The Atlanta defense doesn't get a lot of sacks and picks but they have been able to suppress passing attacks. Unfortunately, they will also have to look out for Darren McFadden (914 yds, 5.8 avg, 6 TDs) who they like to send right up the gut.

 

 

Playoffs Wild Card

Week 16 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)

Season Accuracy:  67% (129 out of 192)

 

1. New York Giants (13-3)

2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)

4. Washington Redskins (12-4)

5. San Francisco 49ers (8-8)

 

1. San Diego Chargers (14-2)

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7)

3. Oakland Raiders (12-4)

4. Denver Broncos (11-5)

5. Houston Oilers (10-6)

 

 

#5 San Francisco (8-8) +6 at Washington (12-4)

Deja Vu. This is a rematch of a Round 2 playoff game last season where #2 Washington defeated #3 San Francisco 38-28. The Redskins are 6-2 against the 49ers, with the two losses in the 2005 and 2010 seasons. If their 2011 regular season game is any indicator, this game will come down to the wire. Washington scored 31 unanswered points in the first half to go up 31-3 at half time. In the second half, the 49ers scored 21 unanswered points to make it 31-24 with 5:30 left in the game. The 49ers managed to get the ball back with 1:21 remaining but couldn't tie it up.

 

WAS Offense vs SF Defense

The Redskins have one of the top passing attacks in the league led by QB Aaron Rodgers (4,162 yds, 28 TDs), WR Terrell Owns (69 catches, 9 TDs) and WR Nate Washington (48 catches, 10 TDs). The 49ers defense does not match up well against one of the worst secondaries in the league, 23rd in yards per game (236) and 18th in passing TDs allowed (18). However, they do have 16 picks, led by S Eric Berry with 5 and they are decent at keeping the yards per completion down.

 

The 49ers only allow 94 yards a game on the ground (4th in the league) but that may be partially because opponents like to air it out against them. Still, the Redskins have an average running game (100 yds/game) so that will be an interesting factor in the game.

 

SF Offense vs WAS Defense

The 49ers have monster RB Jamaal Charles (1,594 yds, 6.2 avg, 9 tds), the top RB in the league, softening up defenses for QB Matt Ryan (3,505 yds, 24 TDs) to toss a few to WR Stevie Johnson (87 catches, 6 TDs). It's a decent, although not spectacular offense, but it gets the job done. Ryan is a high completion, low interception guy. He is vulnerable to sacks because of a weak offensive line. This is a great sequeway to describing the Washington defense who have 44 sacks for the season, #1 in the league. Opponents love to pass against them (574 attempts, most against any other team except SF) yet they are still 4th in pass yds/game (186 yds). That is one stout pass defense. They do allow some yards on the ground (99 yds/game), 22nd in the league in rushing average allowed (4.7). Charles rolled for 153 yds and a 6.4 avg when they played this year.

 

#4 Houston (10-6) +9 at Denver (11-5)

Congratulations to the Houston Oilers and their very first playoff appearance. The Broncos smoked the Oilers in week 4, 30-3, but lost to them in week 13, 27-13. Two turnovers early set up 14 points for Houston.

 

HOU Offense vs DEN Defense

The Oilers are average in putting points up (19.8/game) but have a top tier RB in Peyton Hillis (1,232 yds, 4.1 avg, 9 TDs) and WR Andre Johnson (89 catches, 4 TDs). Alex Smith and David Garrard have shared QB duties. Johnson's sidekick, WR Santonio Holmes, and TE Todd Heap are injured and are going to be very missed. The Broncos like to double team Johnson and this will only encourage them more. Houston is going to struggle sustaining an offensive attack.

 

DEN Offense vs HOU Defense

These are the strengths of these teams. The Broncos also have a top RB and WR : Chris Johnson (1,542 yds, 4.8 avg, 11 TDs) and Reggie Wayne (98 catches, 15 tds). Somehow Mile High Magic transformed QB Pair Jon Kitna and Jason Campbell into far superior QBs to their real counterparts combining for 5,778 yds and 39 tds. The Oilers have an excellent run defense but give up a lot of yards in the air.