Sunday, January 8, 2012

Round 2 Point Spreads

Special Thanks to Commishioner Cliff Dolgins and sportsattic.com host Chad Weyenberg for keeping the USAFL site up to date. The ability to look up historical records on the website instead of PCAction saved me a signficant amount of time in writing these previews.
 
1. New York Giants (13-3)
2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)
4. Washington Redskins (12-4)
5. San Francisco 49ers (8-8)
 
1. San Diego Chargers (14-2)
2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7)
3. Oakland Raiders (12-4)
4. Denver Broncos (11-5)
5. Houston Oilers (10-6)
 
Green Bay (10-6) +4 vs Pittsburgh (13-3)
Pittsburgh has only lost to the Packers twice since the inception of the league, in 2009 and 2010. They've defeated them 8 times, including two Conference Championship games and a Conference Semi-Final game. Green Bay lost this year in OT, 30-24.
 
GB Offense vs PIT Defense
The Packers are the most prolific offense in the league, averaging 26.9 points a game. All Stud players Peyton Manning (3,957 yds, 34 TDs), Ray Rice (1,260 yds, 10 TDs) and Roddy White (120 catches, 17 TDs) smack down on opposing defenses with a demanding, complex, exciting playbook consisting of short passes and handing Rice the ball. Against Pittsburgh, Manning threw 100% short passes. Green Bay is one of at least 3 teams in the playoffs who have found out how to maximize the exploitation of PC Action's game engine. Great coaching, even if the play-by-play is rather monotonous.
 
This is a great matchup because Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses, allowing only 15.4 points/game. They are 5th in both passing and running yards allowed. The harass opposing QBs by picking them off (17 times) and sacking them (34 times). Manning had one of his worse outings of the season in Week 8 against the Steel Curtian, throwing 3 interceptions. But he still got 222 yds and 2 TDs. Most defenses just pray they can contain the Pack and wind up just being a bump in the road to Manning & Co. Pittsburgh has the persomnel to do a little more.
 
PIT Offense vs GB Defense
When GB is on offense, it's a close matchup, but going this direction, Pittsburgh has the edge. The Packers' top statistical areas on defense are Pass Attempts, Rushing Attempts and Penalties. This is evidence that this could be a "the best defense is a good offense" team. When a team's offense is so strong, it keeps opposing offenses off the field. In other defensive areas, like the most important one Points/Game, they only rank 17th, allowing 21.4 points per game. They are in the bottom 4 teams in the league in rushing TDs allowed (17), turnovers (14), interceptions (7) and yards allowed per passing attempt (7.5). Enter Mr. Ben Roethlisberger, a guy who knows how to pass.
 
Pittsburgh doesn't have any super star receivers but Derrick Mason (72 catches, 6 TDs) and Hines Ward (71 catches, 7 TDs) are excellent anchors to Big Ben's cast of targets. On the ground, Cedric Benson (1,189, 3.8 avg, 7 TDs) is the workhorse and Tim Hightower (572 yds, 4.2 avg, 6 TDs) is the flash. These two aren't as frightening as Ray Rice but they are enough of a threat to provide a balanced offense and open up the air.
 
 
 
Atlanta (9-7) +11 vs Oakland (12-4)
Like Green Bay and Pittsburgh, this is a clash between two original USAFL owners. In this matchup, Atlanta has...let's see, let me say it in trash talk terms...Atlanta has OWNED Oakland, defeating them during the regular season for 6 straight seasons. Until 2011, when Oakland, in their quest for their 2nd playoff appearance ever, beat them 20-3 in week 11. Incidently, 11 also happens to be how many points the Raiders are favored by.
 
ATL Offense vs OAK Defense
Well, well, well. The 21st ranked scoring offense against the 5th ranked defense. That explains why the Falcons only got 3 points in their regular season game. But they shouldn't feel too bad, Oakland only allowed an average of 17 points per game. They are smothering on pass defense which happens to be Atlanta's strength led by QB Matt Schaub (3,918 yds, 18 TDs), WR Pierre "Frenchie" Garcon (72 catches, 6 TDs) and H-Back Dustin Keller (66 catches, 3 TDs). To make things worse, they have one of the worst ground games around so they can't exploit one of the few chinks in the Raider defensive armor. Let's move on, this is depressing...
 
OAK Offense vs ATL Defense
Ah ha! Now, here's where it gets interesting. A lot of teams whithered under the barrage of Tom Brady (3,685 yds, 30 TDs) passes to Dwayne Bowe (75 catches, 8 TDs), Miles Austin (63 catches, 5 TDs) and, wait, where'd he go? Brandon Marshall (50 catches, 7 TDs). Yes, Mr. Marshall, seemed to go girly-boy for several games. Hopefully, his NFL 86 receptions will show up for a playoff game? The Falcon defense, though, hung in there, limiting him to only 1 TD and slamming him to the turf twice. The Atlanta defense doesn't get a lot of sacks and picks but they have been able to suppress passing attacks. Unfortunately, they will also have to look out for Darren McFadden (914 yds, 5.8 avg, 6 TDs) who they like to send right up the gut.
 
 

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