Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Dallas Gladiators Announce Firings

The Dallas Gladiator organization announced the firings of Director of Personnel Bob "Shaun Alexander Has Legs!" Bonehead and Director of Simulations Dr. Diddle "We can win the division!" BitTwiddler today after finishing the season 4-12, tieing the worst record of the franchise set back in 2001.
 
"It appears Dr. BitTwiddler skewed the results of the Dallas Technology Center's season simulations to show the Gladiators having much more success than was possible" said Noll Lombardi Landry, Head Coach. "And Bob bought into the numbers and lobbied hard for us to draft Alexander in the 2nd round. It would've been better for us to take a rebuilding approach and draft someone for the future."
 
Dr. BitTwiddler had been head of the Dallas Technology Center since the beginning of the franchise. He developed the DTC point spread methodology adored and despised by coaches across the league. The accuracy of the point spreads was uncanny in the earlier years but recently has diminished significantly. Some weeks in 2008 it only predicted 50% of the correct winners. BitTwiddler placed the blame on Dave Koch and his developers but Gladiator management suspected that he had failed to improve the formulas to account for the human element.
 
Sources within the Dallas organization report that they are working hard behind the scenes to entirce coaches and general managers of division rivals to join the Gladiator organization. High on Dallas' wish list are Muncie GM Chad Weyenberg, Muncie head coach Bob Kalec along with Nashville's Brandon Cox and Great Lakes' Mike Fafnis. Other names from around the league mentioned were Knoxville's Jim Martin who took over a 4-5 team and finished 9-7, Philadelphia's Donald Brenner who turned the Liberty from a 4-12 team to a 10-6 playoff team and Greg Smith of Wausau, who was able to squeeze 5 wins out of a team loaded with terrible talent.
 
 
 

Sunday, December 28, 2008

TTFBA Round 1 Playoff Point Spreads

Week 16 Accuracy: 6 out of 12 (50%) More Embarrassed Than A Dallas Cowboy
Season Accuracy: 131 out of 192 (68%) Like Kurt Warner's completion percentage.
 
#3 Steeltown +1 vs #6 Montcalm
 
The home team Roughcut are a slight underdog at home against the Panthers. Both offenses can put up points (STE #4, MON #7) but both defenses are, at best, average. Steeltown is 16th in points allowed, permitting opponents an average of 23.6 pts per game. Montcalm allows a field goal less on average.
 
The Panthers' Willie Parker could have a good day against a porous RoughCut run defense but both defenses are terrible defending the pass. This could be a high scoring affair.
 
#5 Muncie +15 at #4 Great Lakes
This looks like a deja vu of the week 14 game between these division rivals when the Midshipmen won 24-10. Both defenses are excellent (MUN #1, GLM #3) but Great Lakes has scored more (#4 vs #12). Muncie's Peyton Manning has huge problems in both meetings this season, getting picked off 3 times in the loss. However, the Packers upset the Midshipmen in Week 1 as 12 point underdogs so anything can happen. 
 
#3 Knoxville +8 vs #6 New England
Another home team dissed in the point spread. What is odd is Knoxville is better statistically on both offense (#10 vs #13) and defense (#8 vs #15). The Smokies are vulnerable against a ground attack and the Generals are vulnerable against the pass.
 
#5 San Pedro +1 at #4 Philadelphia
The Liberty have a very good chance of going from 0-4 to playing in the Payton Conference championship (although if NW Missouri is there as well, the sunshiny days will come to an abrupt and devastating end - but let us not dwell on the possible negatives...) Philly swept division mate San Pedro during the regular season by a 10 point average with the Trent Duo Green and Dilfer both having success against an average (#10) Corsair defense. Although Philadelphia has one of the worst pass defenses in the league (#22) allowing 235 yards per game they don't let other teams score (#5) and are very good against the run (#4) allowing only 86 yards per game. Both offenses are unspectacular with the Liberty being the most unspectacular scoring only 15.5 points per game making them #19 in that category. Both teams have great running attacks coming in at #2 (SP) and #3 (PHI) yards. This is the game where you can see Adrian Peterson, Willis McGahee, Joseph Addai, Marion Barber and Michael Turner all in the same game.
 
 
 

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Playoff Scenario Correction

The playoff situation for Dakota and New England was incorrectly described in the original playoff article due to improperly determining net points. New England can still make the playoffs.
 
 
Dakota (7-8). If they lose to Ohio, they are out. If New England loses, they are in. If New England wins, Dakota must defeat Ohio by 26 points or more than New England defeats NW Missouri. 
 
New England (7-8). To make the playoffs, they must upset NW Missouri and Dakota must defeat Ohio by 26 points or less than NE upset NW Missouri.

TTFBA Week 16 Point Spreads

Week 15 Accuracy: 7 out of 12 (58%) Slipping.
Season Accuracy: 125 out of 180 (69%)
 
Prior article has the playoff scenarios.
 
+1 Great Lakes (12-3) vs Nashville (14-1)
A Midshipmen upset would give them home field against Muncie in round 1.
+2 New England (7-8) vs NW Missouri (12-3)
The poor Generals will just miss the playoffs even with an upset here.
+2 Dallas (4-11) at Muncie (11-4)
Mirror image records yet only a 2 point game? Don't count on it. Brad Smith and Jacoby Jones will start for Dallas. A little thin at WR ya think?
+3 Transylvania (5-10) vs Mt. Pilot (3-12)
Gamblers set a record for non-participation. Records show they didn't play a single game head-to-head.
+3 Dakota (7-8) vs Ohio (7-8)
Winner goes to the playoffs, loser stays home. This will be a great one.
+5 Real Charleston (3-12) at Death Valley (2-13)
Real Charleston owner AWOL.
+10 Philadelphia (9-6) at San Pedro (9-6)
Another good one. Winner would win division if Hermitage loses. 
+11 Donelson (2-13) vs Hermitage (9-6)
Heroes get 2nd seed with a win.
+11 Wausau (5-10) vs Knoxville (8-7)
Knoxville are in the playoffs but is it the 3rd or 6th seed?
+18 Dayton (5-10) at Montcalm (8-7)
A Panthers win puts them in. They could still make it if they lose but Fresno would have to lose as well.
+23 Fresno (8-7) at Steeltown (10-5)
Outlaws must win and get an early Christmas present from Dayton to make the playoffs.
+25 North Carolina (5-10) at Tillman (15-0)
This has been a great 8 year rivalry. Down this year but it will return no doubt.
 

 

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Ye Gods! The Playoff Scenarios. (I Think)

Payton Conference
 
The following teams in the Payton Conference are definitely in the playoffs: NW Missouri, Hermitage, San Pedro, Philadelphia and Knoxville. Ohio and Dakota are fighting for the last slot.
 
NW Missouri (12-3) will be the 1st seed.
 
Hermitage (9-6). If they beat Donelson, they will be the 2nd seed. If they lose, they will come in second in the division and be the 4th seed.
 
San Pedro (9-6). If they beat Philadelphia and Hermitage beats Donelson, they will come in second in the division and be seed #4. If they beat Philadelphia and Hermitage loses, they will win the division and become seed #2. If they lose, they will come be third in the division and will be seed #5.
 
Philadelphia (9-6). If they beat San Pedro and Hermitage beats Donelson, they will come in second in the division and be seed #4. If they beat San Pedro and Hermitage loses, they will win the division and get the 2nd seed. If they lose, they will come be third in the division and will be seed #5.
 
Knoxville (8-7). They will either be the 3rd or 6th seed. If they defeat Wausau, they win the division and will be seed #3. If they lose and Ohio defeats Dakota, they still win the division because they swept Ohio. If they lose and Dakota beats Ohio, they place 2nd in the division because Dakota swept Knoxville during the season. If they lose and New England defeats NW Missouri, both teams will be 8-8 but Knoxville will get the 6th seed because of win percentage in common games. Knoxville went 7-2 (78%), New England went 6-4 (60%).
 
Ohio (7-8). If they lose to Dakota, they are out. If they win, they get the 6th seed. Even if New England wins and also goes 8-8, Ohio defeated them in week 13.
 
Dakota (7-8). If they lose to Ohio, they are out. If they win and New England wins, they win the net point tie breaker and get the 6th seed.
 
Simpson Conference
 
The first 3 seeds are fixed: Tillman, Nashville and Steeltown. Great Lakes and Muncie will be the 4th and 5th seeds but in what order has to be determined. Fresno and Montcalm are fighting for the 6th seed.
 
Tillman (15-0). Lock on 1st seed.
 
Nashville (14-1). Lock on 2nd seed.
 
Steeltown (10-5). Lock on 3rd seed.
 
Great Lakes (12-3). If they win or Muncie loses to Dallas, they have the 4th seed. If they lose and Muncie wins, they'll get the 5th seed.
 
Muncie (11-4). They will be the 5th seed unless they win and Great Lakes loses.
 
Fresno (8-7). They must win and Montcalm must lose to get in the playoffs. Montcalm wins any ties because of a 27-20 victory over the Outlaws in week 10.
 
Montcalm (8-7). If they win or Fresno loses, they are the 6th seed. They defeated Fresno in week 10 so ties go to the Panthers.
 
 
 
 

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Philadelphia Defeats Montcalm 20-17 OT

The Philadelphia Liberty have come a long way, baby, since starting the season 0-4. A nail-biting defeat of the Montcalm Panthers gives them a 9-6 record and a probable wild card spot in the playoffs.

The Game

Trent Dilfer started for Philadelphia in place of the used up Trent Green. Fortunately, the Liberty offense is driven by the running game so the QB just needs to keep defenses honest and not make too many mistakes. This Dilfer can do if coached well. He threw for 240 yds and a TD but two interceptions, one in the 4th quarter that Montcalm converted to 7 pts, almost lost the game for them.

A bit snooze-worthy to start the game until the final minutes of the first half. Panther DE Chris Kelsey picked off Dilfer on the Philly 31 but Montcalm failed to capitalize. The scoring opportunity when Montcalm failed to get a first and a penalty on the field goal put them out of range.

Keying on Adrian Peterson was a big part of the Panther's defensive game plan but, with 3:42 left in the half, Peterson ripped a 77 yard scoring run on a rare play he wasn't keyed,
putting them up 7-3. Then Drew Brees and Wes Welker got rolling for Montcalm on a 71 yard drive featuring 3 runs by Willie Parker (69 yds, 1 td for the day) and 4 receptions by Welker including a 7 yd TD catch with 56 seconds left in the half regaining the lead 10-7. Philadelphia took the lead back in the only 3rd quarter score via a play action pass to Plaxico Burress while the defense keyed on Peterson. 14-10 Philly.

Brees, Welker, Parker & Company were contained by the Liberty defense for two series but S Marlon McCree picked off an errant Dilfer pass and returned it to the 5 giving Parker the honor of scoring the TD offtackle. 17-14. Thank you, Mr. Dilfer. But he redeems himself by going 6 of 6 on Philly's next drive, getting them to the 3. But the decision to run Peterson for the score instead of using Dilfer's hot hand backfires because the Panthers turn on the keying forcing a field goal. Tieing is better than losing. 17-17 with 4:37 to go.

Montcalm decides to put the game on Parker instead of Brees and the passing game. Curious decision. Perhaps because Welker and Marques Colston had reached season fatigue levels. Who knows. Maybe the Liberty knew because they keyed Parker on almost every play and forced the Panthers to punt with 2 minutes left. Montcalm held as well and a failed 62 yard field goal attempt by Philadelphia set them up 48 yards from pulling out a win. Alas, so far to go,so little time. Montcalm managed to make it to the 37 but time expired.

Philadelphia won the coin toss in overtime and took their sweet time (5:43) to get to Montcalm's 30 and end the game on a field goal.

The Season

It did not look good early on for Philadelphia after getting crushed by division leader Hermitage 30-10 in week one and losing to Donelson, Real Charleston and Death Valley. All three of those teams are 2-12 now. But things turned around when Trent Dilfer was benched and replaced with another Trent, Mr. Green, in week 5 against San Pedro. He went 6-1. Then the three-headed QB Monster Brunell-Carr-Dilfer rolled up two more wins. Green came back against Hermitage but got benched after going 2 for 7 because of season fatigue, Dilfer taking the remaining snaps in a 24-6 loss.

One asks, how does a team go 9-6 with brittle (durability 2!), average (62!) quarterbacks like Dilfer, Green and Carr? Not to mention Mark "0 Attempts" Brunell? I'll tell you how. Several factors...

1. There is another three-headed monster on the team by the name of McGahee-Gore-Peterson who've made Philly the 3rd in rushing yards. Although they haven't scored much (6 TDs) they don't need to because...

2. The defense doesn't let other teams score much. Usually. They stuff the run and have somehow managed to only allow 19 TD receptions in spite of being next to last in passing yards allowed (243 yds per game). But maybe that's because...

3. A soft schedule. They are 19th in Power Rankings with 7 teams with worse records ahead of them including (eh hm) Dallas at 4-10. Still, there's one win that can be attributed to a little Action anomaly...

4. The Brunell Conspiracy. That's right. Take a gander at that week 13 against Dayton, my friends. Explain to me how Mark Brunell manages to channel Tom Brady going 8 of 13 (61%) for 126 yds (that's 15.75 yds per catch) and two TDs for a 101.3 QB rating. Oh yes, he did through one interception. I guess HAVING 0 ATTEMPTS for a season might result in a mistake here and there. What might Mr. Dave Koch have to say about that.

But a little ol' anomaly...that's geek speak for "software bug", by the way. We don't even whisper the word 'bug'...that little anomaly does not significantly mar an excellent season by Philadelphia. In fact, we at the DTC are pleased with the Liberty's success because our Esteemed Leader and Provider, the Colossus Super Computer, predicted. Allow me to quote from a couple of pre-season articles...

June 9, 2008: "North Carolina is tanking, and Philadelphia is a QB away from a playoff spot. And the run game, led by Adrian Peterson, needs a line." Who would've thought Philly could go it with the Three Stooges? And I guess that running game doesn't need a line.

June 5, 2008: "Philly and San Pedro could give Hermitage a challenge for the division but ultimately the Heroes should come out on top...Philadelphia is showing several close games. They could go 10-6 as well. Coaching, coaching, coaching. Watch those games against San Pedro." How about 9-7?

Unfortunately, the Corsairs will defeat the Liberty in week 16. With Green used up, it will be difficult to sweep San Pedro who will be 10 point favorites. It may not matter depending on how the rest of week 15 games shape up, the Philadelphia Liberty could still find themselves in a wild card spot.


Tuesday, December 9, 2008

TTFBA Week 15 Point Spreads

Week 14 Accuracy: 10 out of 12 (83%)
Season Accuracy: 118 out of 168 (70%)
 
Payton Conference Playoff Outlook
Some great playoff situations. NWM has locked in the first seed and then...well, there's a bunch of other teams. The Harris division trio of Ohio, Dakota and Knoxville is similiar to Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. Knoxville has swept Ohio. Dakota has swept Knoxville. Ohio has defeated Dakota. Week 16: Ohio at Dakota could be critical. However, Dakota has their hands full with NW Missouri this week. Hermitage has San Pedro and Philadelphia breathing down their necks in the other division. 
 
Simpson "No Plea for Me" Conference
Tillman and Nashville are locked in at first and second seeds. Nashville is two games up on Great Lakes but even if they lose out and Great Lakes wins out (including a win over the Force in week 16) they would lose the tiebreaker because of the week 1 loss to Muncie. Steeltown, Great Lakes and Muncie should be the 3rd, 4th and 5th seeds respectively. Montcalm or Fresno will be the final seed. Fresno's last 2 games are tougher but Montcalm does have to deal with a resurrected Philadelphia.
 
+1 Knoxville (7-7) at Transylvania (5-9)
Harris division is possible for Knoxville.
+2 Steeltown (10-4) vs Nashville (13-1)
A RoughCut win or Fresno loss gives Riggins crown to Steeltown
+3 Mt. Pilot (2-12) vs Ohio (7-7)
Ohio in 3 way tie with Knoxville and Dakota.
+3 Death Valley (2-12) vs Muncie (10-4)
Interesting spread. Still, Packers look good for wild card slot
+3 Real Charleston (2-12) vs Dallas (4-10)
These games slay me. I lose more by winning than losing. (Draft order.)
+4 North Carolina (4-10) vs Donelson (2-12)
Again, loser gains more.
+7 Dayton (5-9) vs San Pedro (8-6)
Corsairs on track for a wild card.
+9 Dakota (7-7) at NW Missouri (11-3)
Dakota in bloody fight for playoffs. Worthless game for NWM.
+10 Hermitage (9-5) at Tillman (14-0)
Tillman can coast giving Hermitage help for the Sanders division.
+12 Philadelphia (8-6) at Montcalm (8-6)
This will be brutal. Must win for both.
+16 Fresno (8-6) vs Great Lakes (11-3)
Unfortunate Outlaws caught in Great Lakes - Muncie playoff war.
+24 Wausau (5-9) at New England (6-8)
I think New England can make the playoffs but the Harris division blows my karma.

Last Line of Defense Against Tillman - Great Lakes Midshipmen

As predicted, the Midshipmen defeated the Packers in week 14 to move into 2nd place in the Taylor division. Their three losses were to excellent teams: Muncie, Nashville and Tillman. The Muncie loss causes some concern because Great Lakes was a 12 point favorite. However, that happened way back in week 1 so maybe the Midshipmen hadn't got their sea legs yet. Or is that SportsTurf legs?
 
Great Lakes is the anti-Muncie. Muncie has the better defense, Great Lakes has the better offense. Muncie has some flaws on offense, Great Lakes has some flaws on defense. The Midshipmen defensive line features Patrick Kerney and the Average Triplets (Sapp, Bernard and Hali). It's remarkable how they are ranked in the top 10 against the run. Maybe the run stopping capability of the two hosses in the LB corps, Nick Barnett and Lance Briggs helps. The secondary is the strength of the GLM defense with 8 ratings at both CB positions and Ed Pro-Bowl Reed at safety.
 
On offense, Matt Hasselbeck has several excellent targets on every play including Clinton Portis at RB and Chris Cooley at TE. The primary target is Brandon Marshall who is actually being underutilized, currently at only 60 receptions on a 102 catch year. There hasn't been a lot of double teaming on Marshall. Avoid it at your own risk. The running game featuring Portis is definitely unspectacular. For that matter, based on yards, the passing game is the same - 10th in the league. But they score points and that's what matters.
 
The games against NW Missouri and Tillman reveal the hurtles the Midshipmen must overcome if they expect to make it to the Big Show. Opposing RBs went wild on the Great Lakes defense while the defenses made Portis look like Andy Reid or Oprah running in jello. But Hasselbeck & Co. kept them in it. They were ultimately, barely successful against the Rednecks but 3 picks doomed him against Tillman.
 
(Editors Note: These statistics are prior to week 14 results.)
 
Great Lakes Midshipmen
Current Record: 10-3
Offense Ranking: 5
Rushing Rank (Yards): 11
Passing Rank (Yards): 10
Defense Ranking: 6
Run Defense Rank (Yards): 8
Pass Defense Rank (Yards): 6
Records of Opponents: 92-77
Common Opponents with Tillman: NCT, NWM, NE, WAU, DAK, NAS, STE, DON
Record vs Common Opponents: 7-1
Avg Scores vs Common Opponents: GLM 26.5-13.1, TIL 33-13.1

Monday, December 8, 2008

Last Line of Defense Against Tillman - Muncie Packers

The Packers are currently second behind Nashville as a potential spoiler to Tillman but I expect that to change this week as they are supplanted by Great Lakes who are 16 point favorites in a division matchup. Two of their three losses were to Nashville, the other loss was to a 2-4 team, Philadelphia 20-14. Of course, Philly has gone on to an 8-5 record and has become a contender for the Sanders division crown winning 8 out of their last 9 games. But that's another story...
 
That offense is a problem. Peyton Manning is having a subpar year. He's on a pace for less than 20 TD passes compared to 31 he's capable of. His INT and sack count already exceed his real life numbers. The Packers are 8th in rushing yards but the average per carry is terrible: 3.6 yds. All this points to a weak group of supporting characters: the O-line and receivers. Donald Driver is exceeding expectations with 8 TD receptions but he and Reggie Brown do not strike terror in the heart of opposing defenses, esp. with a suspect running game.
 
Muncie's strength is on defense, tops in the league at points allowed, allowing only a smidge (geek speak) over 11 points per game. Tillman is second at 13.6. None of their losses were blowouts because the defense kept them in it usually to the very end. Manning may have a terrible day but the defense keeps it interesting. They took advantage of turnovers in their first game with Great Lakes. This week's game will be a different story.
 
 
Muncie Packers
Current Record: 10-3
Offense Ranking: 11
Rushing Rank (Yards): 8
Passing Rank (Yards): 15
Defense Ranking: 1
Run Defense Rank (Yards): 4
Pass Defense Rank (Yards): 2
Records of Opponents: 88-81
Common Opponents with Tillman: NCT, DAY, NE, DAK, GLM, NAS, FRE
Record vs Common Opponents: 6-2 (Lost to NAS twice.)
Avg Scores vs Common Opponents: MUN 21.8-9.7, TIL 30.1- 9.9

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Last Line of Defense To Tillman Domination

These teams are TTFBA's last hope at thwarting the rampage of the Tillman Rangers all the way to the Super Bowl.
 
First, the Tillman Ranger statistics:
 
Tillman Rangers
Current Record:  13-0
Offense Rank (Points Scored): 3
Rushing Rank (Yards): 2
Passing Rank (Yards): 17
Defense Rank (Points Against): 2
Run Defense Rank (Yards): 10
Pass Defense Rank (Yards): 1
Records of Opponents: 87-82
 
Nashville Force
Current Record: 12-1
Offense Ranking: 2
Rushing Rank (Yards): 6
Passing Rank (Yards): 11
Defense Ranking: 5
Run Defense Rank (Yards): 3
Pass Defense Rank (Yards): 4
Records of Opponents: 94-75
Common Opponents with Tillman: WAU, GLM, DON, MON, NWM
Avg Scores vs Common Opponents: NAS 35.4-12.8, TIL 37.8-13.4
 
The Force has had the most difficult schedule of any team listed here; their opponents have combined for 94 wins. A passing rank of 11th gives cause for concern although they do have a deep stable of RBs which could be the contributor to that. Brett Favre is a good QB but he throws a high number of INTs. The defense is stout and, on paper, shows vulnerabilities in the secondary but only Tillman and Dallas way back in week 1 have been able to put some hurt on them.
 
Nashville lost to Tillman, 48-30 in week 9. The Force rolled up 410 yds of offense compared to 303 for Tillman. Two kickoff returns for TDs by Andre Davis proved insurmountable for Nashville who were 1 point favorites for the game. Still, even without the freakish special teams, the Rangers would've won a very close game. They were very efficient offensively without posting spectacular yardage numbers. When a QB's every 4th completion is a touchdown, that says something. David Garrard threw for 4 TDs, the most of any game this season.
 
The biggest challenge to Tillman will come out of the Taylor division. The road to the Super Bowl may require the Rangers to face two of Nashville, Muncie or Great Lakes in the playoffs.
 
 
Muncie Packers
Current Record: 10-3
Offense Ranking: 11
Rushing Rank (Yards): 8
Passing Rank (Yards): 15
Defense Ranking: 1
Run Defense Rank (Yards): 4
Pass Defense Rank (Yards): 2
Records of Opponents: 88-81
Common Opponents with Tillman: NCT, DAY, NE, DAK, GLM, NAS, FRE
Record vs Common Opponents: 6-2 (Lost to NAS twice.)
Avg Scores vs Common Opponents: MUN 21.8-9.7, TIL 30.1- 9.9
 
Great Lakes Midshipmen
Current Record: 10-3
Offense Ranking: 5
Rushing Rank (Yards): 11
Passing Rank (Yards): 10
Defense Ranking: 6
Run Defense Rank (Yards): 8
Pass Defense Rank (Yards): 6
Records of Opponents: 92-77
Common Opponents with Tillman: NCT, NWM, NE, WAU, DAK, NAS, STE, DON
Record vs Common Opponents: 7-1
Avg Scores vs Common Opponents: GLM 26.5-13.1, TIL 33-13.1
 
 
NW Missouri
Current Record: 10-3
Offense Ranking: 1
Rushing Rank (Yards): 5
Passing Rank (Yards): 1
Defense Ranking: 4
Run Defense Rank (Yards): 1
Pass Defense Rank (Yards): 3
Records of Opponents: 87-82
Common Opponents with Tillman: NCT, NE, WAU, GLM, NAS, STE, FRE, DON
Record vs Common Opponents: 6-2
Avg Scores vs Common Opponents: NWM 35.8-13.9, TIL 32.6-13.1
 
Steeltown
Current Record: 9-4
Offense Ranking: 4
Rushing Rank (Yards): 16
Passing Rank (Yards): 2
Defense Ranking: 13
Run Defense Rank (Yards): 14
Pass Defense Rank (Yards): 19
Records of Opponents: 76-93
Common Opponents with Tillman: NCT, NWM, NE, WAU, DAK, GLM, FRE, DON
Record vs Common Opponents: 5-3
Avg Scores vs Common Opponents: STE 25.8-22, TIL 31.2-10.8

Monday, December 1, 2008

Declare Tillman the Champ Already

Dead teams playing.

That's what the rest of the league is. The Rangers will romp.

Look at the numbers. Tillman defeated the future Payton division champ, NW Missouri by 3 touchdowns. They have already played and defeated 5 out of the 6 possible playoff opponents in the Simpson conference by an average margin of 16 points.

Look at these scores:

NW Missouri (10-3) lost 37-16
Nashville (12-1) lost 48-30
Great Lakes (10-3) lost 28-24
Steeltown (9-4) lost 35-20

This Tillman Ranger squad will go down as one of the greatest teams in TTFBA history in the realm of the 2006 NW Missouri Rednecks and the 2005 North Carolina Triad Tremblers. That undefeated Redneck team may have had more gaudy statistics, running up more scores than the Oklahoma Sooners, but the 2008 Rangers are just as formidable yet showing more restraint against lesser teams and making statements versus potential rivals (at least on paper) to the 2008 TTFBA throne.

The championship is so obvious that even the Tillman countdown clock gadget that was on the blog blew up.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

TTFBA Week 14 Point Spreads

Week 13 Accuracy: 11 out of 12. (92%) It's about time!
Season Accuracy: 108 out of 156 (69%)

Playoff Picture

With 3 games left, the only teams locked into the playoffs are NW Missouri, Tillman and Nashville. The Payton Conference is very messy with only 2 teams eliminated. It's clearer in the Simpson conference with Fresno on the bubble. They could actually take the division away from Steeltown or knock Montcalm, Muncie or Great Lakes out of the wild card.

Payton Seeds: NWM, HER, OHI, PHI, SP, DAK
Still Alive: NE, TRA, KNX, WAU

Simpson Seeds: TIL, NAS, STE, MUN, GLM, MON
Still Alive: FRE


+1 Fresno (7-6) at Real Charleston (2-11)
Hmm. Underdog to a 2-11 team? This doesn't look like playoff caliber stuff.
+1 Donelson (2-11) vs San Pedro (7-6)
Warriors could damage San Pedro's playoff hopes.
+2 Knoxville (6-7) at Ohio (7-6)
Harris division is wide open. Who wants it more?
+5 North Carolina (4-9) vs Dayton (4-9)
Triad Tremblers pulled an upset in week 5, could do it again.
+8 Montcalm (8-5) at Tillman (13-0)
The Panthers one of only 3 teams to lose by less than 2 touchdowns to Tillman.
+9 Transylvania (5-8) at New England (5-8)
Woo hoo! Evil Dead in the playoffs? It's possible. Unlikely, but possible.
+10 Philadelphia (8-5) at Hermitage (8-5)
Heroes expected to sweep pesky Liberty.
+12 Death Valley (2-11) vs Steeltown (9-4)
RoughCut up two games on Fresno for Riggins division.
+12 Dallas (4-9) at Nashville (12-1)
Forget the recordsl. These teams live to give each other fits.
+14 Mt. Pilot (2-11) at NW Missouri (10-3)
Just a crumb on the buffet to the conference crown.
+16 Muncie (10-3) at Great Lakes (10-3)
Wow. That's a spread. Of course, GLM was favored in week 1 as well and we all know what happened there.
+19 Wausau (5-8) at Dakota (6-7)
Will the Blue Bombers, scrourge of Colossus, finally go away?

Friday, November 21, 2008

TTFBA Week 13 Point Spreads

Week 12 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%) Must...get...10 out of 12...
Season Accuracy: 97 out of 144 (67%)

+1 Montcalm (8-4) at Hermitage (7-5)
With playoff lives in the balance, this will be more brutal than watching an Al Davis press conference.

+1 Transylvania (5-7) at Dakota (5-7)
A meeting of two 5-7 teams would usually be a snoozer but the Payton conference is a collection of mediocrity so these could be playoff teams.

+1 Fresno (7-5) at Muncie (9-3)
Suddenly a new coach at Fresno. Former one was a CEO for one of the Big "Sucking Cash" Three and had to drop out to make some business trips to Washington.

+3 Dayton (4-8) at Philadelphia (7-5)
Did you know Dayton is also known as "Gem City"?

+4 Mt. Pilot (2-10) at Knoxville (5-7)
Upset by Dakota didn't do Knoxville any favors but see comment earlier regarding mediocrity. Mt. Pilot has more computer problems than the driver's license office.

+5 Ohio (6-6) vs New England (5-7)
Intriguing if not thrilling. Ohio leads their division but has three dogs with 5-7 records barking at their heels. Did I say dogs? It's a metaphor not a diss. Or is it?

+8 Steeltown (9-3) at Great Lakes (9-3)
See, in a real conference, games matching two good teams like this happens all the time. That point spread is disturbing, however. Maybe that shows what a real team in a real division in a real conference is like.

+11 Death Valley (2-10) at Dallas (3-9)
If any game this week deserved the word "Death" associated with it, this is the one. The two teams average 2.5 wins. Dallas is the one embarrassment to the division of Nashville, Muncie and Great Lakes.

+16 North Carolina (4-8) at San Pedro (6-6)
Corsairs are sinking themselves this year.

+18 Donelson (2-10) vs Tillman (12-0)
After a couple of early season upsets, the fat lady has been singing in Donelson for many weeks now. Sorry, was that insensitive? The glandularly challenged? The metabolically ungifted? The obese cow that needs to pass up the Twinkies for a little treadmill time?

+22 Real Charleston (2-10) at Nashville (11-1)
Can you believe that DTC predicted a 9-7 season for Real Charleston? But that prediction was made a long, long time ago. Division rival Fresno has had three coaches and two names since then.

+25 Wausau (5-7) vs NW Missouri (9-3)
The Blue Bombers shouldn't be 5-7. How did they get to be 5-7? What are they doing winning 5 games? Something evil lurks in the Colossus software.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

If Playoffs Were After Week 11...

Walter Payton Conference
1. NW Missouri (8-3)
2. Hermitage (6-5)
3. Ohio (6-5)
4. San Pedro (6-5)
5. Philadelphia (6-5)
6. Transylvania (5-6)

Transylvania goes in over Knoxville because of win-loss record against common opponents. DTC Pre-season prediction (in order): Hermitage, New England, Knoxville, NW Missouri, Ohio, San Pedro.

OJ Slasher Conference
1. Tillman (11-0)
2. Nashville (10-1)
3. Steeltown (8-3)
4. Muncie (9-2)
5. Great Lakes (8-3)
6. Montcalm (7-4)

DTC preseason prediction (in order): Tillman, Nashville, Steeltown, Great Lakes, Dallas, Montcalm.

Friday, November 14, 2008

TTFBA Week 12 Point Spreads

Week 11 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%) That's more like it.
Season Accuracy: 88 out of 132 (67%)
 
+1 Dakota (4-7) at Knoxville (5-6)
Dakota won 20-3 in week 3.
+3 Philadelphia (6-5) vs Donelson (2-9)
Donelson won 16-3 in week 3.
+7 Dallas (3-8) vs Great Lakes (8-3)
Great Lakes won 34-21 in week 3.
+8 Death Valley (2-9) at Fresno (6-5)
Fresno won 41-27 in week 3.
+9 Mt. Pilot (2-9) vs New England (4-7)
New England won 26-6 in week 3.
+10 Muncie (9-2) vs Nashville (10-1)
Nashville squeaked by 17-13 in week 3.
+12 San Pedro (6-5) vs Hermitage (6-5)
San Pedro snuck by 17-13 in week 3.
+12 Real Charleston (2-9) at Steeltown (8-3)
Steeltown romped 52-17 in week 3.
+14 Transylvania (5-6) vs NW Missouri (8-3)
NW Missouri crushed in week 3, 45-17.
+14 Wausau (4-7) vs Ohio (6-5)
Ohio won 27-14 in week 3.
+18 North Carolina (4-7) vs Montcalm (7-4)
Montcalm rolled 40-10 in week 3.
+20 Dayton (4-7) vs Tillman (11-0)
Tillman won 19-7 in week 3.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

TTFBA Week 11 Point Spreads

Week 10 Accuracy: 6 out of 12 (50%) Unbelievable. Might as well pick at random.
Season Accuracy: 79 out of 120 (66%)

+2 Muncie (8-2) at Mt. Pilot (2-8)
+3 NW Missouri (8-2) vs Nashville (9-1)
+4 Philadelphia (6-4) at Ohio (5-5)
+4 New England (4-6) vs Great Lakes (7-3)
+5 Donelson (2-8) at Dakota (3-7)
+5 Dayton (3-7) vs Real Charleston (2-8)
+9 Transylvania (4-6) vs Dallas (3-7)
+10 San Pedro (6-4) at Knoxville (4-6)
+10 Death Valley (2-8) at Montcalm (6-4)
+15 Wausau (4-6) vs Hermitage (5-5)
+17 Fresno (6-4) at Tillman (10-0)
+22 North Carolina (4-6) vs Steeltown (7-3)

Friday, October 31, 2008

Sanders Division Outlook

During the pre-season, the DTC predicted Hermitage would be the Sanders division winner but now, at midseason, San Pedro and Philadelphia are ahead of them. Is there a problem? Could the DTC have miscalculated? Did someone replace the Apple Operating System in Colossus with Vista? Have the scientists redirected processing resources to predict the Presidential election? Read and see.
 
San Pedro 5-4
Colossus is having a very hard time with the Corsairs. They were expected to be only 1-8 at this point so they are confounding the microchips. The upsets of Dallas and New England and weeks 7 and 8 are particularily troubling. And the upset of Hermitage, 17-13, as 16 point underdogs in week 3 changed the balance of power in the division. Expected finish: 9-7.
 
Philadelphia 5-4
The Liberty is about where DTC had them. After starting the season with 4 consecutive losses, they are now enjoying a 5 game winning streak. The biggest digital upset was of Dallas in week 6 (oh my Dallas what has happened to you?) as 9 point underdogs. But the real stunner was knocking off a 5-1 Muncie the following week. Expected finish: 6-10. However, 3 of those losses show tight margins.
 
Hermitage 4-5
The Heroes defeated Philly in week 1 and lost a close one to San Pedro in week 3. They are only one win back from expectations. But the schedule improves for them: they will be favored the rest of the season with the exception of week 15 where they face future Super Bowl champ Tillman. They should cruise by San Pedro and Philadelphia in their next meetins with them. Expected finish: 10-6. And Division Champ. Colossus Rules, Man Drools.
 
Donelson 2-7
The Warriors stunned San Pedro in week 1 but otherwise are on track. They did play New England very tough last week, losing by only 3 as 18 point favorites. It was one of those rare games we see these days where coaching makes a difference. It would be wise for San Pedro to be careful in week 14 when they play again. Donelson will only be a 1 point underdog. Expected finish: 5-11.
 
 

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Endorsement Requested

Both Presidential campaign staffs have requested an endorsement from the TTFBA. They feel that this could be the deciding factor in the election. Please vote in the posted poll and the candidate of choice will be notified. To better simulate the actual election, the DTC encourages you to vote early and often. Vote in the name of living and dead relatives, your favorite NFL players, etc.

Write in candidates are not available but the DTC did provide some alternative candidates in case the Republican and Democratic candidates are not palatable selections for you.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

The Buffalo Herd Get A Boss

The rightful heir to the Harris division crown just got back into the race with the discovery of a Buffalo Boss in Brookly, New Yawk - Jim Martin. The scientists at the DTC have been agitated for weeks that such a talent-laden team could be rudderless. But now things will be made right, the mighty DTC Colossus Super Computer will be at peace and the Super Geeks can take a power nap after a sugar feeding frenzy.
 
Here's how we expect the Harris division race to shape up:
 
Wausau at 3-6 is expected to lose the rest of the way with the possible exception of an upset of Donelson this week.
 
Dakota, also at 3-6, could finish as good as 9-7.
 
Ohio, the current division leader at 5-4, has a shot at 11-5 but the margin of victory in the DTC predictions is very tight for most of those games.
 
Knoxville is sitting right behind Ohio with a 4-5 record and could also win out.
 
The key game is in week 14 when Knoxville visits Ohio. In week 1, the Buffaloes didn't allow the Glory to score until 4 minutes were left in the game. In the meantime, they scored 38 points. The final score: 41-7. Ohio has one of the stingier defenses, allowing only 17 points a game, so 41 points was quite a feat. Jeff Garcia posted a 129 rating with 2 Tds and Marshawn Lynch scored twice making the most of his 8 carries. Davenport has been the featured back most of the season but expect Lynch to start carrying the load more for the rest of the way, including week 14.
 
It will be an uphill fight but having someone at the helm of Knoxville will make the Harris division race much more interesting.
 
 

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

TTFBA Week 10 Point Spreads

Week 9 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%) That's more like it.
Season Accuracy: 73 out of 108 (67%) Abysmal.
 
+3 Philadelphia (5-4) vs Knoxville (4-5)
Alas poor homeless Knoxville - should be 7-2.
+4 San Pedro (5-4) vs Dakota (3-6)
Blizzard could inch closer to Harris division leader Ohio this week.
+4 Fresno (6-3) vs Montcalm (5-4)
Both have power offenses but Montcalm's defense is stingier.
+6 Wausau (3-6) at Donelson (2-7)
Bottom feeder game of the week. Great coaches, bad teams.
+7 NW Missouri (8-1) at Great Lakes (6-3)
Really? Can the Midshipmen handle Westbrook?
+8 Muncie (7-2) vs New England (4-5)
Really? Generals' fans clamoring for new coach.
+8 Steeltown (7-2) vs Tillman (9-0)
Rangers cut through RoughCut steel like it was butter.
+8 Dayton (2-7) at Death Valley (2-7)
The Dragons aren't a terrible team, they just live in a terrible neighborhood: the Cambell division.
+12 Ohio (5-4) at Hermitage (4-5)
Both teams should consider this game playing for their playoff lives.
+15 Mt. Pilot (2-7) at Dallas (2-7)
These coaches usually match up closer than the spread indicates.
+16 North Carolina (3-6) at Real Charleston (2-7)
Three wins may not seem like much but NCT is overachieving.
+19 Transylvania (4-5) at Nashville (8-1)
This is Halloween Week - will that infuse power in the EVIL DEAD?

Monday, October 27, 2008

Tillman's Double KR TDs Doom Nashville, 48-31

Tillman Rangers ace kick returner ace Andre Davis returned two kicks for touchdowns to contribute to Nashville's tumble the undefeated ranks. Only one TTFBA team remains undefeated : Nashville's Slayer: The Tillman Rangers.
 
Another kick return man, the Force's Torry Holt, helped put Nashville in the hole early by fumbling a return near the end of the first quarter with Tillman up 10-3. The Rangers went the 25 yards and finished up with a 7 yard pass to from David Garrard (16 of 25, 177 yds, 1 Int, 4 Tds) to Ronnie Brown. Interesting observation: Brown has a reception rating of 8, second only to Brian Westbrook's 10 and equivalent to Reggie Bush's 8. However, Brown only caught 39 passes in 2007, Bush caught 73 and Westbrook caught 90. There are at least 9 other RBs who caught more passes than Brown but none ranked higher than a 6.
 
Still, Nashville responded on the next drive with a touchdown of their own with Jake Delhomme (12 of 20, 197 yds, 1 Int, 3 Tds) hitting favorite target of the day Bobby Engram (6 rec, 82 yds, 2 Tds) on a crossing pattern for the TD. This put them back within 7, down 17-10. The Rangers score another TD, then Nashville answers with another one of their own. 24-17.
 
But then the first of Davis' returns for a TD occurs and the Force go 3 and out. The first half ends with Nashville two touchdowns behind, 31-17. They open the 3rd quarter getting a FG and Tillman answers with a FG of their own. Delhomme is intercepted by Rod Hood to start the 4th quarter and returns it to the Nashville 2 yard line. Garrard connects with T.J. Houshmamdzadeh for their 3rd touchdown completion.
 
With Tillman up 41-20, the Force, in falters on their next drive and miss a 44 yard FG with 10:26 left. Fred Taylor's biggest run of the day, a 41 yarder is wasted. He laid out the yardage, 16 attempts, 151 yards for a 9.4 average but failed to score, extending his TD drought to 4 games.
 
The Rangers attempted to finish Nashville off on the next play with a long pass, only the second long attempt during the game, but it is picked off by Anthony Henry. Nashville strikes quickly with Garrard hitting Antonio Gates for 33 yard TD. Down 41-27 with 10 minutes to go.
 
Then, BOOM! Davis returns the ensuing kickoff 95 yards for the coup de grace.
 
 
 

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

TTFBA Week 9 Point Spreads

Some improvement in accuracy but huge upsets make the scientists wonder if there are ghosts in the machine.
 
Week 8 Accuracy: 8 out of 12 (67%)
Season Accuracy: 67 out of 96 (70%)
 
 
Week 8 Upsets
+1 Dakota 29, Real Charleston 28
+1 Death Valley 31, Knoxville, 17 
+17 San Pedro 43, New England 31
+14 Wausau 27, Steeltown 17
 
 
Week 9 Spreads
+1 Tillman (8-0) vs Nashville (8-0)
Game o' the Week! Preview of Conference Championship.
+1 Transylvania (4-4) vs Philadelphia (4-4)
The Evil Dead pattern is Loss-Win,Loss-Win. Next up: Win.
+1 Dallas (2-6) at Montcalm (4-4)
Dallas secondary banged up, Panthers win by larger margin.
+2 Real Charleston (2-6) at Knoxville (3-5)
Even at 3-5, Knoxville could still win the division.
+5 San Pedro (4-4) at Mt. Pilot (2-6)
Even at 4-4 San Pedro could still win the division.
+5 Death Valley (2-6) at Ohio (4-4)
Even at 4-4 Ohio could still win the division. Like that pattern?
+5 Dayton (2-6) vs Muncie (6-2)
Brandon Jacobs still out for the Dragons.
+6 Dakota (3-5) vs Steeltown (6-2)
Roughcut recover from embarrassing loss to Wausau.
+9 Hermitage (4-4) at NW Missouri (7-1)
Heroes are 0-3 vs teams with winning records. Welcome to 0-4.
+12 Wausau (2-6) vs Fresno (6-2)
Wausau coming off HUGE upset over Steeltown.
+18 Donelson (2-6) at New England (3-5)
Warriors may have a win or two left in them but not against the Generals.
+20 North Carolina (3-5) vs Great Lakes (5-3)
Midshipmen get back in the win column after loss to Tillman.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

TTFBA Week 8 Point Spreads

Perhaps the worst week in the history of DTC Predictions. Just terrible.
 
Week 7 Accuracy: 6 out of 12! (50%)
Season Accuracy: 59 out of 84 (70%)
 
+1 Death Valley (1-6) vs Knoxville (3-4)
Surprising spread considering DV is allowing 400+ yards per game.
+1 Dakota (2-5) at Real Charleston (2-5)
Galacticos Kurt Warner snacks on Blizzard secondary.
+3 Ohio (4-3) at Fresno (5-2)
Both teams battling for top of their respective divisions. Good one!
+5 Great Lakes (5-2) vs Tillman (7-0)
Inactive PacMan will cause distraction fighting with stadium security.
+6 Mt. Pilot (2-5) at Philadelphia (3-4)
Gamblers have a kicker for every one of their wins (2).
+9 North Carolina (3-4) at Muncie (5-2)
Triad Trembler on 3 game winning streak in defiance of rebuilding year.
+10 Transylvania (4-3) at Hermitage (3-4)
Heroes heroically survived Muncie and Great Lakes, get back to winning.
+11 Donelson (2-5) vs NW Missouri (6-1)
Warrior offense no match for that Redneck defense.
+12 Montcalm (4-3) at Nashville (7-0)
Nashville quietly undefeated (except for the occasional Engram outburst)
+14 Wausau (1-6) at Steeltown (6-1)
Matt Ryan already trying on Blue Bomber jersey.
+17 San Pedro (3-4) vs New England (3-4)
Corsairs are overachieving, Generals are underachieving.
+18 Dayton (2-5) at Dallas (1-6)
Battle of the Bottom Feeders. Just played: Dallas 30, Dayton 7.
 
 

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Philly upsets Muncie in 5 INT Game

The award for most terrible passing by both quarterbacks in a regular season game goes to Philadelphia vs Muncie, October 2008. Liberty QB Trent Green and Packer QB Peyton Manning combined for 5 interceptions, 5 sacks, 1 td, 1 fumble and an average rating of 58. Manning did pass for 310 yds in the losing effort but it was Green who, in spite of only having only 158 yds for the day, threw the TD pass.

It's difficult even reading through the play-by-play on this game because of all the turnovers (9). So, I made a chart. I only counted 8. Perhaps they count a failed 4th down attempt as a turnover? I know about 4th down attempts, I played San Pedro. Anyway, here's my chart...

T1 MUN Manning fumble (result=Gore fumble)
T2 PHI Gore fumble (result=MUN TD)
T3 PHI Green INT (result=Pittman fumble)
T4 MUN Pittman fumble (result=missed 60 yd FG)
T5 MUN Manning INT (result=PHI TD)
T6 MUN Manning INT (result=Tatupu fumbles while returning INT)
T7 MUN Manning INT (result=Green INT)
T8 PHI Green INT (result=MUN TD)

My brain hurts. I can't go on much longer. Dear Mr. Muncie Mercenary Coach - didn't I warn you about Philly? Didn't I? The computers and the geeks are not happy when I contradict them. Then they really get mad when I'm right. You hurt their almighty blessed accuracy percentage. They can hack Congressional computers and insure your clubs are one of the few entities not to be bailed out by taxpayers. But I digress...

The teams had some success on the ground. Liberty's Frank Gore came up a yard shy of 100, average 5.8 per carry but fumbled more times than he scored (1 fumble, 0 tds). Adrian Peterson tacked on 23 yds but embarrassed those of us from the Sooner Nation by averaging only 3.8 yds and not scoring. Philly, call me. We'll take him and try to rehabilitate him. Muncie Packers' Three Tenor Trio of Buckhalter, Dayne and Pittman averaged 4.4 yds per carry with Buckhalter punching in a 4 yd TD in the 2nd quarter.

Look at that Liberty, will ya? After going 0-4 to start the season, they have won 3 in a row. They'll actually be favored for a change next week against Mt. Pilot. And in their division, 3-4 is a contender. The Muncie Packers should get back on the victory wagon against North Carolina.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Air Steeltown Defeats Generals, 23-13

[By Guest Correspondent Cela Noltz]

A tough tough game, Steeltown outlasts New England for a hard-fought 23-13 win.

The Roughcut run-game was sluggish most of the day, mainly due to a concerted effort by the New England defense. Earnest "Cracker" Graham managed 47 yds, most coming late, while Ryan "Land" Grant had 31 tough yds. Tony "Mojo" Romo and the passing game were again key, managing 341 yds and two TDs on a 24 for 35 day. He was harrassed and sacked 4 times by a rugged New England attack. Jerricho "Wall" Cotchery had 97 yds on 7 catches while Hines "Ketchup" Ward added 88 yds on 6 catches. Terrell "Gimme the Ball" Owens was knocked out of the game early.

Jay "Fine" Cutler led the Generals, throwing for 246 yds and a TD, 22 of 32 passing. Julius "Caesar" Jones could manage only 21 yds on the ground, on 9 carries. Braylon "Crayon" Edwards was a standout for the visitors, catching 9 passes for 85 yds and a score. Reggie "Wedgie" Wayne added 96 yds on 6 catches, mainly double-teamed.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

San Pedro Continues Dallas Losing Streak

San Pedro Corsair RBs Marion Barber and Joseph Addai combined for 171 yds and 2 yds rushing in a 24-14 upset of the Dallas Gladiators. Addia also took a short flat from QB Derek Anderson 46 yds for a TD that was 28% of Anderson's 165 yd output for the day.
 
Corsairs scored first with a 43 field goal on a drive featuring a successful 1st down attempt on 4th and 2 from Dallas's 44 yd line, one of 2 successful conversions in the game. The second one was a 2 yd TD run by Barber to put them up 10-7 in the 2nd quarter. San Pedro historically has gone for it on 4th down more than any other team in the TTFBA. Their success at it has been mixed over the years but so far this season they have converted 70% (14 of 20).
 
That's right, folks. You only see this expert analysis from the scientists of the Dallas Technology Center. We may not be able to figure out how to stop a 5 game losing streak but we sure can analyze how teams crush us.
 
Addai's TD pass reception mentioned earlier occurred at the end of the first half putting the Corsairs up 17-7. Dallas was unable to capitalize on a pick from Anderson by CB Ronde Barber to open up the 3rd quarter because they attempted a San Pedro and went for it on 4th and inches from the Corsairs 12 but the Corsairs were waiting for the Tom Brady sneak.
 
Dallas did score on their next drive with Santonio Holmes taking a short pass ala Barber 44 yds for a TD closing to 17-14. 
 
Brady's stats were good (22 of 30 for 217 yds and 2 tds) but he couldn't singlehandedly win the game for the Gladiators. RB Shaun Alexander got "tired" during a key stretch of the game forcing Dallas, without any healthy RBs, to go all pass, all the time. Alexander eventually returned, only to get "hurt".
 
Still, Dallas trudged on but any comeback hopes were deflated when Kris Brown missed a 52 yard FG attempt with 2 minutes left that would've tied it. San Pedro's bonus TD came in the final seconds on a 27 yd romp by Addai when the Gladiators went aggressive goalline max blitz. Addai ran the entire 27 yards with half of the Gladiator defense hanging on him trying to strip the ball.
 
Dallas (1-6!) play again at home next week and will be 18 pt (hahahaha!) favorites against Dayton. San Pedro, even at only 3-4, can easily take the Barry Sanders division. Division leader Hermitage was 3-3 coming into this week and San Pedro defeated them earlier in the season. But they face New England and will be 17 pt underdogs.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

TTFBA Week 7 Point Spreads

Week 6 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%)
Season Accuracy: 53 out of 72 (74%)


+1 Philadelphia (2-4) at Muncie (5-1)
The Packers better be careful.
+2 Dayton (2-4) vs Ohio (3-3)

RB Brandon Jacobs injured for the Dragons. Won't be this close.
+3 North Carolina (2-4) vs Wausau (1-5)

Blue Bombers beat Triad Tremblers by a Trio.
+4 Transylvania (3-3) at Death Valley (1-5)
The Evil Dead staying in the mix for a playoff slot.
+4 Steeltown (5-1) vs New England (3-3)

New England has choked in big games. This one as well?
+7 Mt. Pilot (1-5) at Real Charleston (2-4)
RCC has potent passing attack but one of the worst defenses.
+9 Hermitage (3-3) at Great Lakes (4-2)
Even at 4-2, Great Lakes is still only 3rd in own division.
+9 Fresno (5-1) vs NW Missouri (5-1)
Two scoring machines go at it. NWM has better defense.
+10 Knoxville (3-3) at Montcalm (3-3)
Knoxville's QB Jeff Garcia is out. Backup Kyle Orton is no Garcia.
+13 San Pedro (2-4) at Dallas (1-5)
I scoff at my own DTC at this one. Several key Gladiators are on crutches.
+16 Dakota (2-4) at Tillman (6-0)
The Blizzard will be competitive in most games this season. Just not this one.
+21 Donelson (2-4) at Nashville (6-0)
Father vs Son. Pre-game group hug: father,son and Bobby Engram.

Monday, October 6, 2008

Muncie 31, Hermitage 19

The Packers released Kryptonite on the Heroes this weekend, defeating them soundly 31-19 with the hot hand of Peyton Manning (21 of 29, 287 yds, 4 tds, 143 rating). Muncie deployed a defense in the first half to throttle RB LaDainian Tomlinson (16 carries, 64 yds, 1 td, 4 receptions) and dare Hermitage to beat them in the air with Jon Kitna and Andre Johnson, Joe Jurevicius and Jeremy Shockey. This would appear to be a bold strategy considering Tomlinson was the top rusher in the league coming into the game with 774 yds and a 6.5 avg. Although the stats show Muncie's defense as 2nd against the run, allowing only 76 yds per game, they hadn't played anyone with a running game like Hermitage's except perhaps Nashville.
 
The strategy was effective although Tomlinson can only be contained, not shut down. One key play in putting Hermitage in a hole, 17-3, was a Packer pick off Kitna on his own 8 yard line while keying on Tomlinson. It was a short out pass into a tight man defense but you'd expect the odds to be in the Heroes favor to complete that one, especially at home.
 
Hermitage did put together a nice 72 yard drive to end the half with Tomlinson contributing 22 yards on 3 carries and 2 receptions for 15 yards. A 15 yard seam to Jurevicius for a TD put the favorite Heroes back in the game 17-10.
 
They closed the gap even more with another field goal 6 minutes into the 2nd half but Muncie delivered the fatal blows with back-to-back touchdown drives where Manning went 10 of 11 and TD passes of 2 and 17 yards. Manning was the Lex Luthor to the Heroes.
 
Hermitage's final TD drive had one of the most interesting plays. On a 2nd and 40 (because of a 10 yard sack and two 10 yard penalties) Kitna tosses a pass to Dennis Northcutt in the flat against a loose man defense in a dime package. He's able to take in 46 yards for the first down! It's like the game engine was compensating for denying much for Tomlinson by allowing a ridiculous pass result. It wasn't so sorry that it didn't force the Heroes to take 4 plays from the 4 to punch it in for the TD.
 
Hermitage goes to 3-3 probably staying a game up in their division unless, by some miracle, San Pedro defeats Nashville. They'll be 9 pt underdogs next week at Great Lakes. Muncie continues to confound the pundits rolling at 5-1 not letting up on undefeated division leader Nashville. They will only be 1 pt favorites at home against Philadelphia.
 

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Blizzard Freeze-Dry the Panthers, 22-17

The DTC had the 3-2 Montcalm Panthers as only a 3 pt favorite over the 1-4 Dakota Blizzard this week. It was free Dairy Queen Margarita Blizzard at Dakota's Arctic Circle Stadium Friday night and the fans were fired up.
 
Many of them passed out soon after Montcalm scored on their first possession on a Drew Brees to Roy Williams 14 yd pass in the face of a Blizzard blitz. The rest of the first half scoring consisted of 3 field goals, 2 for Montcalm, 1 for Blizzard, putting the score at 10-zzzzz-6 at halftime. Brees went 5 of 7 on the final (zzzz) field goal drive, thwarting the Dakota double coverage by throwing to the single covered guys.
 
The Blizzard offense, one of the lowest scoring squads in the league, was playing as poor as expected so it was up to the defense to get the game back. On the first play of the 3rd quarter, S Josh Bullocks picked off Brees giving Ben Roethlisberger & Co. a short field. They capitalize on a 16 yard seam to Kevin Faulk taking the lead which they would never give up. The Panthers would eat up over 6 minutes on their next drive and come up...with nothing - a missed 45 yard FG. Dakota gets (yawn) another FG to go up 10-15. Montcalm follows up with a nice drive that gets them to Dakota's 20 but CB Nate Clements is part of the double coverage and snags an interception, running it all the way back to Montcalm's 9. Roethlisberger decides to throw to, who else, Kevin Faulk for another TD strike.
 
Down 22-10 with 13 minutes left,the Panters go on another clock eating 6 minute drive with Marques Colston catching a pass in the flat then taking 20 yds for the score. The Blizzard are able to hang onto the ball long enough to only allow Montcalm one final desperation play - a long slant to Sam Hurd that falls incomplete.
 
Dakota's running game was essentially non-existent with 51 yds on 27 carries (1.9 avg) but Big Ben went 16 of 21, 229 yds and 2 TDs for a QB rating of 142.8. His effort, along with the two picks of Brees, were the difference in the upset. 
 
 
 
 

Friday, October 3, 2008

Tillman Head Honcho Interview, Part 3 of 3

This is the final segment of DTC's interview with Tillman Ranger Owner/Coach /Super Bowl Loser Chris Erath. He has failed to provide any good bulletin board material or even a hint at how we could defeat the Rangers but he did drink up most of our Green Blob Energy Drink (available at all Geek Convenience Stores in your area!) and has been gracious about any distortions we have made of his quotes. The result of our calculations have the Rangers as this season's champs (providing Erath doesn't choke in the playoffs again).
 

DTC. Your team was originally named the Ouagadougou Walrus. You changed its name to the Tillman Rangers for the 2004 season to honor former Arizona Cardinal S Pat Tillman who joined the Marines in 2002 and was killed in Afghanistan in April, 2004. You suggested the league rename the OJ Simpson conference to the Pat Tillman conference and when that didn't occur you renamed your team. I really liked the Ouagadougou name. I miss it. If the Simpson conference was renamed for Tillman, would you revert to the Ouagadogou name?
 
Erath. Absolutely.  But who would back a proposal to rename a conference for someone who died making a selfless sacrifice when it can be named for a congenital criminal?
 
DTC. The press has power. We impose our will on presidential elections, we can help make this happen.
 

Somebody want Knoxville, anybody?

It's a shame Knoxville is still an available team. Based on a 40 season simulation, DTC has the team ranked 10th with a 365-272-3 record. Their offense ranked 11th with an average of 20 pts per game and their defense ranked 8th, allowing 18 pts per game.
 
They are slight favorites to win their division over the Ohio Glory with the Dakota Blizzard right behind Ohio. Knoxville, Ohio and Dakota are ranked 10th, 11th and 12th overall. They crushed Ohio 41-7 in week 1 but currently trail them in the standings by a game at 2-3. Including the week 6 game, they will be favorites in 7 out of the remaining 11 games.
 
The offense has an average offensive line for the run but below average in protecting the QB. Notable offensive players include RB Marshawn Lynch (1115 yds, 4.0 avg), WR Bernard Berrian (71 receptions, 5 tds), TE Owen Daniels (63 receptions, 3 tds) and the ageless wonder QB Jeff Garcia (94.6 rating, 64% completion, 13 tds, 4 INTs, 19 sacks) . Garcia's back up is Kyle Orton and the team has several TEs including Kevin Boss, Tony Scheffler and Bubba Franks.
 
The defense has average overall rating points featuring very good pass defense points with below average run defense in the base 4-3 defense. The rush points are among the worst (only 15 sacks) but they have the most INTs (23). Notable players on defense are CB Antonio Cromartie with a 10 rating and LBs Gary Brackett (7 rating) and Angelo Crowell (7 rating). The defensive line needs more beef with the starters averaging only 5.5.
 
 
 

Philadelphia Runs Over Dallas, 27-17

A devastating Liberty ground attack and two 2nd quarter picks from Gladiator QB Tom Brady were major contributors to Philadelphia's upset of Dallas in week 6 action. Brady's errors resulted in two TDs for Philadelphia providing a 20-3 hole from which Dallas would never emerge.
 
The Gladiators got back in it in the 4th quarter on a TD driving featuring two 4th down conversions and an early Christmas gift from Liberty QB Trent Green to Gladiator CB Lito Sheppard deep in Liberty territory that set up another. A 20-3 blowout became a 20-17 game in the space of 75 seconds. But, alas, the comeback fell short when Dallas' next drive stalled midfield and a goalline defense against an Adrian Peterson offtackle run resulted in a 49 yard scamper, setting up Philly's final score.
 
Instead of letting the ground game finish the clock off in the final minute, Philadelphia rubbed the Gladiators face in the loss with an 18 yard fly pass to Plaxico Burress for a TD with 1:10 to go. Led by Peterson's 137 yds, the Liberty rushed for 170 yds with a 6.3 avg. With the running game rampant, Green could complete passes at his leisure - the few times he was asked to put it up, going 12 for 17, 117 yds, 1 INT, 2 TDs. Coach was so intent on humiliating Dallas that he didn't consider rewarding Peterson's effort by letting him try to punch one in during the final minute. 
 
Philadelphia improves to 2-4, Dallas falls to 1-5 with a losing streak now at 4 games. The Liberty will be 1 pt underdogs at Muncie next week. They are a better team than their record indicates. Amazing what can happen when someone coaches them. Another amazing thing is that Dallas will be 13 pt favorites at home against San Pedro with 3 RBs, a TE,  and both starting safeties out. What kind of voo-doo we use to come up with the spreads? 

Tillman Head Honcho Interview, Part 2 of 3

DTC. The geeks of DTC have already crowned you the champ for this year going so far as posting a countdown timer to your Super Bowl victory. What do you think your chances are this year? I'm sure the pressure to live up to the DTC pronouncements must be incredible. It is reported that girly-boy players like Peyton "Place" Manning of the Muncie Packers, Bobby "Who's Your Daddy" Engram of the Nashville Force and Warren "Dancing with the Stars" Sapp have wet themselves when they heard their names mentioned in the DTC press. Can your players handle it? You can't afford your RBs to get rattled with your embarrassing lack of the depth at that position.
 
Erath. Rumor has it that Ronnie Brown is planning a major injury to get out from under the pressure.  But he'll spend his time off learning to torch evil teams by taking direct snaps.  Other than Ronnie, they are hanging tough and taking it one game at a time.  As for my chances, I think I'm in the pool of teams which has a legit chance.  It'll be hard to get out of the conference, though, given all the talent in the DTC's home division.
 
DTC. Take it from me - it's a division of wimps. You should see all blubbering the coaches do on chat when I play them. "Please don't let your Gladiators harm my effeminate man-boy team." That Nashville Force guy is the worst. And they say geeks aren't studly.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Tillman Head Honcho Interview. Part 1 of 3

Owner/Coach Chris Erath of the Tillman Rangers visited with a team of geek interviewers in the cubicle labyrinth of the Dallas Technology Center recently. Head of Security Dr. Tribble Phaser considered a security lockdown before Dr. Erath arrived to insure none of our top secret technology and strategies could be observed by him but with the Dallas Gladiators at 1-4 realized the DTC has nothing the 5-0 Rangers could possibly be interested in.

DTC. Welcome Dr. Erath. Thank you for letting us interview you. If you would just let us attach these electrodes we'll start the questioning...
Erath. Back off pimple face. We agreed that no electronic devices would be attached to me.
DTC. Sorry about that. Help yourself to the Skittles and Green Blob Fusion Energy drink.
Erath. I hate Skittles but that drink looks pretty good...
DTC. It's delicious.
Erath. Mmm. Yes it is.
DTC. You have the 3rd best overall record in the TTFBA (98-35) only arch-division rival Mark "Smarty Pants" Liveringhouse of North Carolina and Mike "MROD" Rodriquez of NW Missouri have won more games. You've made the playoffs 7 out of 8 seasons, have 4 division titles and one Super Bowl appearance (a loss to Wausau way,way,way back in 2001). Outside of the lopsided trades you've made that make the billion dollar bailout ripoff of taxpayers look tame by comparison, what would be two or three key reasons why you've had such success?
Erath. Despite your snarky comment, I've made very few trades over the years. At least trades which affected anything. I was fortunate in the initial draft to be able to ignore skill positions until the 10th round or so and then get lucky with Jeff Garcia, who was just starting out. That gave me a good base of non-skill players, and I overcame my lack of RBs with a committee approach initially and then taking some guys who could become starters before they were. As they became starters, the team improved to where it could compete. But I have no magic wand, as evidenced by the Minnesota Viking-like flameouts I've taken in the playoffs.
DTC. The 10th round? That's hard to believe. You had a 13-3 the first season. Unfortunately, the draft records for that year have disappeared (coincidence? I think not) so we are unable to verify your statement.
Erath. I think I had one receiver and no RBs or QBs in the 10th round, when I took Garcia.
DTC. You said your "team improved to where it could compete". What was there to improve? Consistent excellent records and all those playoffs. The one missed appearance was the 2005 season where you obviously blew off the season for a high draft pick and went 2-14. However, you went 11-5 in 2006 and 15-1 last year (choking against arch-nemesis NCT in week 5 and round 2 of playoffs). That's more than just building a great base 8 years ago. I could see a few great years maybe but you have nearly 100 regular season wins like NW Missouri (except that he's appeared in 4 Super Bowls and won 2 of them and you've only been in only one a long,long time ago and withered under Wausau's blitzkrieg attack in the 4th quarter).
Erath. Improved in the sense that I could not compete with [NCT] in year 1; I made the playoffs, got lucky against [Dallas], and then got trampled by [NCT] for the third time that year [in the conference championship]. And if we had played 50 times, NCT would have won 51. After that first year, I could compete, and was in the set of teams that had a legit chance to win, even if it didn't work out that way due to poor owner and substitute playoff coaching (Full disclosure: Gladiator owner/coach Greg English coached Tillman against NCT in round 2 of the 2007 playoffs and lost 34-20.)
DTC. Is good coaching a part of your success or is it mostly player talent?
Erath. It's largely player talent because of the software. If your defense is not up to snuff, you'll get freighttrained even with the right call most of the time. And if your defense is good against the run, teams without a top-notch running attach will struggle to do anything on the ground even if you call pass every time. Dave K, if you are listening, make the software more responsive to play calls and do not be a slave to having replays turn out just like real life.

At this point of the interview, one of the DTC reporters overdosed on Skittles and Energy Drink and threw up on the digital recorder, shorting it out. Fortunately, the DTC has the greatest technology in the history of the TTFBA and was able to extract the data for your reading pleasure.


Tuesday, September 30, 2008

TTFBA Week 6 Point Spreads

Week 5 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%)
Season Accuracy: 44 out of 60 (73%)

+3 Muncie (4-1) at Hermitage (3-2)
This is more important for the Packers. Heroes have no divisional competition.
+3 Death Valley (1-4) at Mt. Pilot (0-5)
It's too bad they are cellar dwellars, this could be an exciting game.
+3 Dakota (1-4) vs Montcalm (3-2)
The Panthers keep up pursuit of wild card spot.
+5 Transylvania (3-2) vs Fresno (4-1)
Outlaw coach MIA vs Steeltown last week.
+9 Philadelphia (1-4) vs Dallas (1-4)
Gladiators in terrible health.
+10 Steeltown (5-0) at NW Missouri (4-1)
Two powerful offenses but Redneck defense far superior to Roughcut's.
+12 North Carolina (1-4) at Ohio (3-2)
Ohio-Knoxville division fight will go down to the wire.
+12 Dayton (2-3) at Knoxville (2-3)
Buffaloes gore the Dragons.
+13 Donelson (2-3) vs Great Lakes (3-2)
The Warriors start 4 game meat grinder. Engram could be handy right now.
+15 Real Charleston (2-3) at New England (2-3)
The Generals start a nice 5 game win streak.
+18 Wausau (1-4) vs Tillman (5-0)
Rangers obtain anti-aircraft missles and blow Bombers out of the sky.
+23 San Pedro (2-3) vs Nashville (5-0)
Corsair defense collapses against Favre and Fred Taylor.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Undefeated Steeltown Outlasts Outlaws

By Special Correspondent Captain America
 
The game was a dog-fight the whole way, just as it was billed.
Steeltown jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead, only to see McNabb rally
the Outlaws with a 10 point rebound. It came down to the last 2
minutes, as the Roughcut drove inside the Outlaw 20 yd line to kick
what would be the winning FG on the leg of Rob Bironas, and then held
off the Outlaws for the final 45-seconds.

For the home-standing Outlaws, McNabb was brilliant in keeping the
Roughcut defense on it's heels, throwing for 281 yds on 30 attempts.
He hit Johnson 8-times for a robust 133 yds and three TDs. White
added another 96 yds on 6 catches, one score. Jones-Drew ran for 55
tough yds, with LBs hanging all over him, and surprising Harrison ran
just 4-times for a stunning 60 yds! Seau & Pierce added INTs, one of
them stemming a deep drive by Steeltown.

For the visiting Roughcut, Romo again was on his game, despite
throwing two very costly INTs. On a work-like 19 of 26, Tony hit
Hines Ward 6-times for 77 yds and a pair of touchdowns, and Jerico
Cotchery also had 6 catches for 90 and a tally. On defense, Jason
Taylor
came up with 2 key sacks.

Week #6 sees the Outlaws tarveling to Transylvania ("De bats, boss,
de bats!"), while Steeltown travels to always-tough NW Missouri.

Slothful Teams

DTC reporters are given a Sunday midnight deadline by the Editor to get their articles in. However, it is a bit difficult to do that when CERTAIN teams do not get their games played.
 
We're calling the following teams out:
 
Transylvania "Delayed" Dead
Mt. Pilot "Sluggard" Gamblers
Steeltown "Reluctant" RoughCut
Fresno "Overdue" Outlaws
North Carolina "Tardy" Tremblers
Dayton "Draggin" Dragons
 
Kudos to the Sanders and Harris divisions of the Payton Conference and the Taylor division of the Slasher...er...Simpson Conference for getting those games in on time.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Muncie upsets Dallas, 16-7

The victim of the first reported upset of week 5 is DTC's own beloved Dallas Gladiators. The geeks have obviously forgotten that the center was created for the purpose of helping make the Gladiators winners. The only thing they can show for the 2008 season is a 1-4 record and 24 cases of Twinkies consumed.

Dallas QB Tom Brady reportedly called Muncie QB Peyton Manning a "girly-boy" before the game in reference to his 68.2 QB rating coming into the game with 4 TDs and 5 INTs to his credit. Manning responded with a 19 of 23, 215 yd, 1 td outing (120.1 rating). Brady finished with a girly-boy rating number of 68.1 completing only 13 of 24 passes.

The Gladiator injury woes have now moved to include the defense with starting LB Scott Fujita and S Adrian Wilson down. The Packers lost some depth on the o-line with backups "Orange" Junius Coston and Tony "Doll" Moll both out for at least a week.

The overachieving Packers have now thwarted the DTC predictions 4 out of 5 times. At 4-1 they keep pressure on division leader Nashville. Next week they will be 9 point underdogs at Hermitage. The hospital ward Gladiators will be two TD favorites against Philadelphia who, at press time, have still not accomplished their first win.