USAFL Week 16 Point Spreads

Week 15 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 68% (122 out of 180)

 

NFC Playoff Situation

#1 Seed: New York (Giants), Pittsburgh or Washington
#2 Seed: Green Bay, NFC Central Champions
#3 Seed: New York (Giants), Pittsburgh or Washington
#4 Seed: New York (Giants), Pittsburgh or Washington
#5 Seed: Chicago, Detroit or San Francisco

 

If NYG wins, they are NFC East Champions and the #1 seed
If NYG wins, the winner of the PIT-WAS game is the #3 seed, the loser the #4 seed
If NYG loses, the winner of the PIT-WAS game are NFC East Champions
If NYG loses, they are the #3 seed and the loser of the PIT-WAS game is the #4 seed

 

If CHI wins, they are the #5 seed
If CHI loses and DET beats SF, DET is the #5 seed

If CHI loses and SF beats DET, SF is the #5 seed

AFC Playoff Situation

#1 Seed: San Diego, AFC Central Champions
#2 Seed: Atlanta, AFC East Champions
#3 Seed: Denver or Oakland
#4 Seed: Denver, Oakland or Houston
#5 Seed: Denver, Oakland or Houston

 

Winner of DEN-OAK is the #3 seed

If HOU wins, they will be the #4 seed and loser of DEN-OAK is #5 seed
If HOU loses, they will be the #5 seed and loser of DEN-OAK is #4 seed

+01 Boston (5-10) at Atlanta (9-6)

Falcons have locked up the #2 seed.

 

+03 Baltimore (6-9) vs Chicago (8-7)

Bears are in with a win, out with a loss.

 

+03 Kansas City (2-13) vs Cincinnati (7-8)

Bengals better than expected (6-10), Chiefs much worse than expected (6-10)

 

+03 Oakland (11-4) at Denver (11-4)

Both are in the playoffs. Broncos upset the Raiders in Week 1.

 

+03 New York (A) (7-8) vs Carolina (7-8)

Both teams were expected to be a playoff bound, especially the Panthers.

 

+03 Washington (12-3) at Pittsburgh (12-3)

Winner would be NFC East Champions and #1 seed if NYG lose.

 

+06 Miami (4-11) at Buffalo (4-11)

Both teams have done about as well as expected.

 

+06 Dallas (6-9) vs Cleveland (6-9)

Browns are in good hands for the future with owner Crawford Davis.

 

+07 San Francisco (7-8) at Detroit (8-7)

Lions expected to win division find themselves fighting to even make the playoffs.

 

+07 Minnesota (1-14) at Green Bay (10-5)

Meaningless game for the Packers who are guaranteed #2 seed.

 

+14 Houston (10-5) at San Diego (13-2)

Chargers are lock #1 seed, Oilers have a slot, whether it's #4 or #5.

 

+21 Philadelphia (2-13) at New York (N) (12-3)

Giants could earn their first division championship.

 

USAFL Week 15 Point Spreads

Week 14 Accuracy: 92% (11 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 68% 115 out of 168

 

 

+03 Minnesota (1-13) at San Francisco (6-8)
Detroit has the leg up over SF for the last playoff slot.

 

+03 Chicago (7-7) vs Green Bay (10-4)
Packers are NFC Central Champs

 

+03 Cincinnati (6-8) vs Denver (11-3)
Broncos broke 2 game losing streak, not the time to start another

 

+03 Atlanta (9-5) at New York (A) (6-8)
Falcons are AFC East Champs

 

+03 Cleveland (6-8) at Washington (11-3)
Browns could put a kink in Redskins division run

 

+05 Buffalo (4-10) at Boston (4-10)
Expected records by this point: BUF 2-12, BOS 6-8

 

+07 Houston (9-5) vs Oakland (11-3)
Two playoff bound teams. Oilers have the lost slot

 

+07 New York (N) (11-3) vs Pittsburgh (12-2)
Winner takes division lead

 

+07 Philadelphia (2-12) vs Dallas (5-9)
Eagles' upsets over CLE and SF were bright spot in poor season.

 

+13 Baltimore (5-9) at Detroit (8-6)
Looks like the Lions get first trip to the playoffs

 

+17 Miami (4-10) at Carolina (6-8)
No playoffs for the Panthers

 

+19 Kansas City (2-12) at San Diego (12-2)
Chargers still hanging onto division lead

USAFL Week 14 Point Spreads

Week 13 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)
Seasons Accuracy: 67% (104 out of 156)

+01 Buffalo (4-9) vs Atlanta (8-5)
A Falcon win seals the division crown.

+01 Dallas (5-8) vs New York (N) (10-3)
Cowboys traded away QB Jason Campbell. Now it's Henne or Tebow at the helm.

+03 Cleveland (6-7) at Pittsburgh (11-2)
Will the Browns trip up the Steelers' pursuit of the division?

+06 Oakland (11-2) at San Diego (11-2)
Raiders were also underdogs in week 2 but went on to win 27-13.

+07 San Francisco (5-8) vs Chicago (7-6)
Bears in the midst of brutal fight for playoff shot.

+07 Cincinnati (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Could be critical game. Winner may wind up in the last playoff slot.

+09 Boston (4-9) at Carolina (5-8)
A must win for any hope at the playoffs.

+10 Baltimore (5-8) at Green Bay (9-4)
Super Bowl Champs looking good for another run in the playoffs.

+10 Kansas City (2-11) at Denver (10-3)
What a division. Three teams battling for supremacy: DEN, SD, OAK.

+16 Minnesota (1-12) at Detroit (7-6)
Lions keep playoff hopes alive.

+17 Miami (4-9) at New York (A) (5-8)
Jets are still a potential playoff team even at 5-8.

+21 Philadelphia (2-11) at Washington (10-3)
Washington keeps up with Pittsburgh and New York Giants in division.

USAFL Week 13 Point Spreads

Week 12 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 67% (97 out of 144)

+01 Detroit (6-6) at Chicago (7-5)

Pre-season SB favorite Lions could miss the playoffs???

+03 Miami (4-8) vs Atlanta (7-5)
Falcons defeat of Carolina gives them 2 game lead in division.


 +06 Buffalo (3-9) vs Carolina (5-7)

Panthers probably need to win division to make playoffs.

+03 Boston (4-8) vs New York (A) (4-8)
Very slim shot at the playoffs for these two teams.

+03 Dallas (5-7) vs Washington (9-3)
Cowboys alternate being the upsetter and the upsettee.

+04 Cleveland (6-6) vs New York (N) (9-3)
CLE has won 5 of last 6 games after starting 0-5.

+07 Minnesota (1-11) vs Baltimore (4-8)
Colts are sandbagging. They can defeat GB and PIT but have 8 losses?

+07 San Francisco (5-7) at Green Bay (8-4)
Peyton Manning sends flowers to 49er CBs as pre-emptive thanks.

+08 Houston (7-5) at Denver (10-2)
Broncos shutout last week for first time since 9/2008.

+14 Kansas City (2-10) at Oakland (10-2)
Chiefs start pow-wowing about 2012 draft...

+15 Cincinnati (5-7) vs San Diego (11-1)
Chargers will be 2011 Champs. They dominated a 10-1 Denver last week.

+21 Philadelphia (2-10) vs Pittsburgh (10-2)
Starter Brett Favre is out. Backup John Skelton didn't do too bad in loss to CLE.

USAFL Week 12 Point Spreads

Week 11 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 67% (88 out of 132)

+01 Washington (9-2) at New York (N) (8-3)
Giants need to avoid being swept by the Redskins

+03 San Francisco (4-7) at Baltimore (4-7)
Colts were upset by SF in week 3, could be again.

+03 Kansas City (2-9) vs Houston (6-5)
Oilers are 4th place in AFC Central but have same record as AFC East leader.

+05 Denver (10-1) at San Diego (10-1)
Speaking of swept: DEN swept SD last season, will SD return the favor?

+06 Atlanta (6-5) vs Carolina (5-6)
Battle for the AFC East. Falcons had Panther prey in early season game.

+06 Buffalo (3-8) at New York (A) (3-8)J
ets were supposed to fly high this season, should be 8-3 by now.

+07 Minnesota (1-10) vs Chicago (6-5)
Both NFC divisions are competitive, Bears are a game behind Green Bay

+07 Green Bay (7-4) at Detroit (6-5)
Packers crushed the Lions 31-10 in an upset in first meeting.

+08 Miami (4-7) vs Boston (3-8)
At least the Dolphins have twice the wins as expected. Good job.

+13 Dallas (5-6) at Pittsburgh (9-2)
Cowboys hope running game keeps Roethlisberge & Co. off the field.

+14 Cincinnati (5-6) at Oakland (9-2)
The Bengals are doing about as well as they can in the midst of a monster division.

+17 Philadelphia (2-9) at Cleveland (5-6)
The Browns have a shot at 10-6 (really), the Eagles will not win another game.

USAFL Week 11 Point Spreads

Week 10 Accuracy: 92% (11 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 67% (81 out of 120)

+01 Cincinnati (4-6) vs New York (A) (3-7)
Odd fact: Bengals have 5 kickers on their roster.

+01 Boston (2-8) at Kansas City (2-8)
Backup QB Matt Stafford will lead KC to victory?

+03 Carolina (5-5) at San Diego (9-1)
Two excellent defenses. Panthers need big games from Jone-Drew and McCoy.

+03 Detroit (6-4) vs Washington (8-2)
Redskins prolific passing game vs Lion shutdown pass defense.

+03 Cleveland (4-6) at Green Bay (7-3)
Matt Cassel is out for CLE, an upset will be difficult.

+03 Dallas (4-6) at San Francisco (4-6)
Cowboys have a rough schedule ahead - PIT, WAS, NYG...

+06 Chicago (6-4) vs Pittsburgh (8-2)
With WR Kenny Britt out, Bears lean on H-back Jacob Tamme.

+07 Philadelphia (2-8) at Baltimore (3-7)
Unfortunately, Colts defensive strength matches up with Philly's offensive strength (passing game)

+13 Buffalo (2-8) at Houston (6-4)
Oilers could pull off an 8 or 9 win seasons.

+13 Minnesota (1-9) vs New York (N) (7-3)
Giants have two key defensive guys out - DL Seymour and S Landry

+16 Atlanta (6-4) at Oakland (8-2)
Falcons have racked up a nice collection of upsets, minor and major.

+21 Miami (4-6) at Denver (9-1)

Seems like a team with Adrian Peterson and Wes Welker would be better than 23rd in scoring. 

USAFL Week 10 Point Spreads

Week 9 Accuracy: 58% (7 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 65% (70 out of 108)

 

+03 Philadelphia (2-7) vs Minnesota (0-9)
Vikings get first win??? Only game this season they will be favored.

 

+03 Green Bay (7-2) at New York (N) (6-3)
NYG's Eli Manning begs to start against brother Peyton. No, Eli, no.

 

+03 Dallas (4-5) vs Detroit (5-4)
Could injured Cowboy kicker be the difference?

 

+06 Kansas City (2-7) at New York (A) (2-7)
Chiefs go for Upset #3 at the Jets.

 

+07 Cincinnati (4-5) at Carolina (4-5)
Bengals have a little 2 game winning streak going. Panthers stunned by KC last week.

 

+07 Miami (4-5) vs Houston (5-4)
Dolphins slipping behind in AFC East.

 

+07 San Francisco (4-5) at Cleveland (3-6)
Which 49ers team will show up? The one that upset NYG last week or the one that lost to Philly the week before?

 

+09 Atlanta (6-3) vs Denver (8-1)
Falcons are overachieving but defeating the Broncos would be unbelievable.

 

+10 Boston (2-7) vs Oakland (7-2)
Patriots had to face Denver and Oakland back to back. Ouch.

 

+10 Chicago (6-3) at Washington (7-2)
Redskins want some Steeler scalp and keep the pressure on with win against Bears.

 

+16 Baltimore (2-7) at Pittsburgh (8-1)
Steelers have some injury problems but should still defeat Baltimore.

+18 Buffalo (2-7) vs San Diego (8-1)
AFC Central race is brutal: Denver, San Diego at 8-1, followed by Oakland at 7-2.

USAFL Week 9 Point Spreads

Week 8 Accuracy : 41% (5 out of 12)
Season Accuracy : 66% (63 out of 96)

+01 New York (A) (2-6) at Oakland (6-2)

Last week, QB Tom Brady had worst game since become a Raider.

+01 Chicago (5-3) vs Dallas (4-4)
Bears upset by a 2-5 Cleveland team last week.

+03 Atlanta (5-3) at Houston (5-3)
Oilers are 4th place at 5-3 in a very tough division.

+03 Buffalo (2-6) at Cincinnati (3-5)
Bills have lost 3 in a row, including at home against KC last week.

+03 Cleveland (3-5) at Detroit (4-4)
Lions are unachieving but still just 2 games behind division leader GB.

+07 Baltimore (2-6) vs Washington (6-2)
Redskins QB Aaron Rodgers threw 5 touchdown passes last week.

+10 Kansas City (1-7) vs Carolina (4-4)
Panthers had big upset of Oakland last week. (But late!)

+13 Minnesota (0-8) vs Pittsburgh (7-1)
Vikings own longest losing streak. 8 games and counting...

+14 Boston (2-6) at Denver (7-1)
Broncos and Chargers continue to duke it out for division leader.

+14 San Francisco (3-5) vs New York (N) (6-2)
Surely, 49er coach will show up to take down the Giants? (Update: Yes, He Did! 24-13)

+16 Philadelphia (2-6) at Green Bay (6-2)
Packers quickly recover from lost to PIT in overtime last week.

+17 Miami (4-4) at San Diego (7-1)
Hmmm...Dolphins may not win again the rest of the season.

USAFL Week 8 Point Spreads

Week 7 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 69% (58 out of 84)

 

+03 Boston (2-5) vs Houston (4-3)
Injury issues for both teams. Oilers will run over Patriot defense.

 

+03 Cincinnati (2-5) at Miami (4-3)
Dolphins QB Orton is probable. They need him.

 

+03 Kansas City (0-7) at Buffalo (2-5)
Bills stop 2 game losing streak, Chiefs keep going...

 

+03 Pittsburgh (6-1) vs Green Bay (6-1)
This will be a good one.

 

+03 New York (N) (5-2) vs Detroit (4-3)
Two stout defenses along with offense with some punch.

 

+03 Cleveland (2-5) vs Chicago (5-2)
Bears score 95.2% of the time in the Red Zone. Best in league.

 

+03 Baltimore (2-5) at Dallas (3-4)
Colts have been on the decline since stunning upset of GB in week 2.

 

+07 New York (A) (2-5) vs Denver (6-1)
Both teams have great running games but only the Broncos have the 'D'.

 

+07 Atlanta (5-2) vs San Diego (6-1)
Chargers can not let up, tied with Denver and Oakland in division.

 

+07 Philadelphia (1-6) vs San Francisco (3-4)
49ers almost tripped up Pittsburgh last week.

 

+13 Minnesota (0-7) at Washington (5-2)
Oof. Vikes have Drew Brees and can't win with him.

 

+14 Carolina (3-4) vs Oakland (6-1)
Panthers are down to 3rd string QB Charlie Batch

USAFL Week 7 Point Spreads

Week 6 Accuracy: 83% (10 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 68% (49 out of 72)

 

+01 Houston (3-3) vs New York (A) (2-4)
DT Kris Jenkins out for the Oilers, that'll hurt.

 

+03 Cleveland (1-5) at Baltimore (2-4)
Browns are playing below expectations, Colts are playing near expectation.

 

+03 Washington (5-1) at Green Bay (5-1)
Oof! I'd like to have a ticket to this one.

 

+03 Kansas City (0-6) vs Miami (3-3)
Dolphins still the team to watch even with big loss to Raiders last week.

 

+03 Chicago (4-2) vs New York (N) (5-1)
Another good one. I'd say I want tickets but I'm coaching in it.

 

+03 Cincinnati (2-4) vs Atlanta (4-2)
Falcons be wary, your division lead is in the balance.

 

+07 Carolina (3-3) at Denver (5-1)
Sorry Panthers, Broncos are in dogfight for their own division.

 

+10 San Francisco (3-3) vs Pittsburgh (5-1)
49ers hard to predict. They need their great coach EVERY GAME.

 

+07 Minnesota (0-6) vs Dallas (2-4)
Neither team doing anything special. Not a single upset between them.

 

+14 Boston (2-4) at San Diego (5-1)
Patriots, oh Patriots - upset two games in a row now.
 
+19 Buffalo (2-4) at Oakland (5-1)
Bills two wins were huge upsets. Great to see spoilers like that.

 

+25 Philadelphia (1-5) at Detroit (3-3)
Lions were supposed to win their division, they are 3rd so far.

USAFL Week 6 Point Spreads

Week 5 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 65% (39 out of 60)

 

+01 Cincinnati (1-4) at Boston (2-3)
Patriots upset by Buffalo last week, potential for another.

 

+02 Minnesota (0-5) at Cleveland (0-5)
The Browns are a major underachieving team, they should have 2 wins.

 

+02 Dallas (2-3) vs Green Bay (4-1)
Green Bay needed a TD with 6 seconds left to avoid upset last week.

 

+03 Houston (2-3) at Carolina (3-2)
Oilers have good run defense to contain Panthers but no offense.

 

+04 Detroit (3-2) at Pittsburgh (4-1)
Steelers bounce back from first loss.

 

+04 Kansas City (0-5) at Atlanta (3-2)
No scalps for the Chiefs this week.

 

+05 San Francisco (3-2) at Washington (4-1)
Both teams still in the race for their divisions.

 

+09 New York (A) (2-3) vs San Diego (4-1)
Jets defense will be like tissue paper to Rivers et al.

 

+11 Baltimore (2-3) at New York (N) (4-1)
Colts stunned the Packers in week 2, Giants will be wary.

 

+16 Miami (3-2) vs Oakland (4-1)
Dolphins, after pulling off two upsets, will be sushi for the Raiders.

 

+20 Philadelphia (1-4) vs Chicago (3-2)
Bears trying to keep pressure on division leader Green Bay.

 

+20 Buffalo (2-3) vs Denver (4-1)
Bills are uber-overachievers this season but no match for Broncos.

USAFL Week 5 Point Spreads

Week 4 Accuracy: 75% (9 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 62% (30 out of 48)

 

+01 Atlanta (3-1) vs New York (A) (1-3)

Underperforming Jets have a chance to start moving back up.

 

+01 Cleveland (0-4) vs Washington (3-1)

Simulation believes in the Browns too much.

 

+04  New York (N) (3-1) at Pittsburgh (4-0)

Steelers last undefeated team in the league, dominating opponents.

 

+05 Chicago (3-1) at Green Bay (3-1)

Packer offense is a scoring machine.

 

+07 Minnesota (0-4) vs San Francisco (2-2)

49ers offense will own the Vikings.

 

+07 Baltimore (2-2) vs Detroit (2-2)

Lions have stumbled big the past two weeks.

 

+10 Buffalo (1-3) vs Boston (2-2)

The Bills' record doesn't show how competitive they coach.

 

+12 Houston (2-2) at Oakland (3-1)

Raider strength is defense. Offense is not impressive, however.

 

+16 Cincinnati (1-3) at Denver (3-1)

This is not a bad matchup. Bengals might keep it closer.

 

+16 Philadelphia (1-3) at Dallas (1-3)

Didn't see this coming. On paper, Eagles should pass for 400 yds.

 

+18 Miami (2-2) vs Carolina (3-1)

Dolphins shocked Atlanta last week with a huge upset.

 

+19 Kansas City (0-4) vs San Diego (3-1)

2/3 of Chief OLBs are injured.

 

USAFL Week 4 Point Spreads

Week 3 Accuracy: 41%! (5 out of 12)
Season Accuracy: 58%! (21 out of 36)

 

+01 Boston (1-2) at New York (A) (1-2)
Buffalo upset the Jets last week. This won't be easy.

 

+03 Houston (2-1) vs Denver (2-1)
Four-way tie in the AFC Central. This will help break that up.

 

+03 San Francisco (2-1) vs Green Bay (2-1)
Packers have best pass defense, 49ers have excellent offense.

 

+04 Buffalo (1-2) at Carolina (2-1)
Da Bills do NOT match up well against the Panthers.

 

+05 Minnesota (0-3) at Baltimore (1-2)
Two very bad defenses. A Score Fest?

 

+10 Miami (1-2) at Atlanta (3-0)
Falcons only one of two undefeated teams left.

 

+10 Cleveland (0-3) at New York (N) (2-1)
Giants bound back from upset to the Eagles.

 

+10 Dallas (1-2) at Washington (2-1)
Redskins scalp the Cowboys.

 

+11 Chicago (2-1) at Detroit (2-1)
Later game between these two foes will be closer.

 

+13 Cincinnati (1-2) at San Diego (2-1)
Oh...that four-way tie in AFC Central becomes a 3 way tie.

 

+14 Kansas City (0-3) vs Oakland (2-1)
KC last in offense, 23rd in defense. Oof.

 

+21 Philadelphia (1-2) at Pittsburgh (3-0)
Steelers are in Top 10 Teams in almost all offensive and defensive categories.

USAFL Week 3 Point Spreads

Week 2 Accuracy: 80% (10 out of 12)

Season Accuracy: 66% (16 out of 24)

 

+01 Miami (1-1) at Boston (0-2)

Dolphins may pull off more than the expected 3 wins.

 

+02 San Francisco (1-1) vs Baltimore (1-1)

Ravens coming off surprise upset of Green Bay. This will be a good game.

 

+03 Atlanta (2-0) at Carolina (2-0)

Falcons aren't supposed to make 8 wins, upset here would be big.

 

+03 Minnesota (0-2) at Chicago (1-1)

Bears allowed 49ers a big 4th quarter last week.

 

+04 San Diego (1-1) at Denver (2-0)

Charger QB Philip Rivers was terrible last week in Oakland.

 

+04 Cincinnati (1-1) vs Oakland (1-1)

Raider offense is rolling.

 

+05 Green Bay (1-1) vs Detroit (2-0)

First real test for Lions. Are they for real?

 

+07 Kansas City (0-2) at Houston (1-1)

Chiefs are allowing far more points than expected.

 

+09 Philadelphia (0-2) vs Cleveland (0-2)

Somebody is gonna get their first win.

 

+10 Dallas (1-1) vs Pittsburgh (2-0)

Steelers starting off strong again. Roethlisberger and Benson are doing well.

 

+10 Buffalo (0-2) vs New York (A) (1-1)

Jet QB M. Vick spreads his passes around.

 

+13 Washington (1-1) vs New York (N) (2-0)

Possible high scoring game - Giants have trouble with Aaron Rodgers every season.

USAFL Week 2 Point Spreads

Week 1 Accuracy: 50% (6 out of 12)

-01 San Diego (1-0) at Oakland (0-1)

Chargers win really launches bid for the division over the Raiders.

-01 San Francisco (0-1) at Chicago (1-0)

Good start for Chicago. The 49ers will be a good test for them.

+03 Cincinnati (1-0) vs Houston (0-1)

Bengal Carson Palmer lit up the KC defense last week but Oiler defense is better.

+04 Boston (0-1) vs Carolina (1-0)

Patriots have to face Carolina after getting dominated by Atlanta. 

+06 Cleveland (0-1) vs Pittsburgh (1-0)

Browns were supposed to shake up the division but were upset by Dallas.

+07 Buffalo (0-1) at Atlanta (1-0)

Falcons crushed Boston in week 1 upset.

+07 Dallas (1-0) at New York (N) (1-0)

Cowboys upset Cleveland last week ,allowing only 36 yards on the ground.

+07 Kansas City (0-1) vs Denver (1-0)

Denver's upset of Oakland last week establishes them as a competitor.

+07 Philadelphia (0-1) vs Washington (0-1)

Redskins' Aaron Rodgers bounces back from 5 sack, 1 int, 1 td game.

+10 Minnesota (0-1) vs Detroit (1-0)

Lions fans are going to be so happy this season - could be best year ever.
  

+10 Green Bay (1-0) at Baltimore (0-1)

Sweetheart deal between teams extends to the game as well.

+14 Miami (1-0) vs New York (A) (0-1)
Gonna be a very, very long season for the Dolphins.

USAFL Week 1 Point Spreads

+03 Pittsburgh (0-0) at Washington (0-0)

Curiously, Steeler offense only ranked 10th in simulation.

 

+03 Miami (0-0) vs Buffalo (0-0)

Could be highpoint of the season for the team that wins.

+03 Atlanta (0-0) at Boston (0-0)

Falcons play the Patriots closer this season.

+04 New York (A) (0-0) at Carolina (0-0)

Jet's must take both Panther games as do-or-die for playoffs.

+06 Detroit (0-0) at San Francisco (0-0)

Re-emergent Lions get out-coached.

 

+7 Kansas City (0-0) at Cincinnati (0-0)

Bengals attack Powwow of Chiefs - snack heavily. 

 

+08 Minnesota (0-0) vs Green Bay (0-0)

Cheeseheads extend regular season consecutive win streak to 26.

+09 Baltimore (0-0) at Chicago (0-0)

Bears are improved from last season.

+07 Dallas (0-0) at Cleveland (0-0)

Browns should double their wins of last year (4), starting now.

+10 Denver (0-0) at Oakland (0-0)

Broncos swept the Raiders a combined 47-6 last season. Payback time.

+10 Philadelphia (0-0) vs New York (N) (0-0)

Eagles are grounded.

 

+14 Houston (0-0) vs San Diego (0-0)

The Chargers will be double digit favorites for many games this season.

Point Spread Generator

This is the main screen from Dallas Tech Center's Point Spread Generator. Click on it to zoom. This shows a post season report of Green Bay from last year. This season I am tinkering with the formula in an attempt to improve my ability to pick winners which has held steady at around 70%. If you yahoos would just coach like the boring computer, I would be picking at 95%. But noooooo, you have to be creative. So, here's to another great USAFL season and a 5-10% improvement from the DTC.

What? You thought those spreads were just pulled out of a hat?

Raider Nation Reigns

The Oakland Raiders have emerged, narrowly, as the pre-season favorite to be the USAFL Champs for the 2011 season. Mike Chase has been Coach/General Manager for the Raiders since the league inception but has led the team to the playoffs once: a wild card loss to the Jets in 2008. That was also the only year Oakland won more than 50% of its games and the only year it has had double digit wins, going 10-6. Raider Nation exists in a tough division usually dominated by San Diego and Denver who went 13-3 and 14-2 last year, respectively. The road to the division crown and, ultimately, the Super Bowl will be via the two OAK-SD contests.

 

Results based on 20 simulated seasons using the official schedule.

 

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh (11-5) Has won division 4 out of 6 seasons

2. Washington (10-6) Great chance taking division back-to-back

3. New York Giants (9-7) In the mix. 

3. Cleveland (9-7) Browns could make things interesting in division this season.

5. Dallas (7-9) Second year in a row finishing below 50%

6. Philadelphia (4-12) Long playoff drought for the Eagles.

 

NFC Central

1. Detroit (11-5) Lions spring out of years of mediocrity?

2. Green Bay (9-7) Defending SB Champs have gone 28-4 over past two seasons.

3. Baltimore (8-8) George Watt brings the Colts back.

4. Chicago (7-9) Two seasons in a row to miss the playoffs?

5. San Francisco (6-10) Frank Aluzzi took a 1-15 team to 13-3 in two years.

6. Minnesota (4-12) 12-4 -> 7-9 -> 4-12. Vikes Yikes!

 

AFC East

1. Carolina (11-5) Less competitive inter-division this season.

2. New York Jets (9-7) 4x the wins of last season but playoff slot will be tough to get.

3. Boston (7-9) Too bad. Last season went 11-5 and playoffs for best season ever.

3. Atlanta (7-9) Perennial playoff team not looking that great.

5. Buffalo (4-12) Bob Durfee's second season with franchise. Can he turn this team around?

6. Miami (3-13) Odd. Team has some talent, hard to believe only 3 wins.

 

AFC Central

1. Oakland (13-3) Weeks 2 and 14 vs SD baby!

2. San Diego (12-4) Defense! Stomp, stomp! Defense! Stomp, stomp!

3. Denver (10-6) Crushed by OAK in week 1, squeaks by OAK in week 16.

4. Houston (8-8) Tim Moore get Oiler well productive again.

5. Cincinnati (6-10) Richard Robb took them from 4-12 to 9-7 but this is a setback.

5. Kansas City (6-10) Far from playoffs but 6 wins are better than only 1 from last year.

Pre-Season Update

As soon as the official season schedule is added, I will create a new pre-season prediction based on simulations using it.

 

As I went through the prior results, I found a couple of issues that affected the results. I run multiple simulations with computer generated schedule, depth charts, lineups and coaching templates so I rely heavily on the software to be consistent on what it does.

 

1. The computer generated schedule included 5 duplicate games. A team played the same out-of-division opponent twice. It didn't even alternate home and away teams.

 

2. I found at least one instance where the software generated formation preferences in the Gameplan did not make sense for the personnel on the team.

 

#1 won't be a problem with the official schedule. #2 will require me to manually check every Computer Generated GamePlan unless Dave changes the program.

 

 

 

SD or OAK or CAR vs PIT or DET or NYG

If the simulation results from the Dallas Technology Center's labs are any indication, the USAFL 2011 season promises to be a bloody battle for the championship. The average wins of the top 3 teams in each conference are within 1 game of each other. For the AFC: San Diego, Oakland and Carolina; for the NFC: Pittsburgh, Detroit and New York (Giants).

 

The Chargers averaged the most wins over a simulation of 40 (yes FORTY) seasons, going 13-3. The Raiders and Panthers were right behind with 12-4 records. The AFC Central is easily the most dominate division in the league with 4 out of 6 teams expected to finish with winning records: SD (13-3), OAK (12-4), HOU (10-6) and DEN (9-7). The other teams with winning records in the conference are CAR (12-4) and NYJ (9-7).

 

The Steelers, Lions and Giants all averaged 11-5 records. Green Bay and Cleveland are the next tier with 9-7 records.

 

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh (11-5) Steelers have never finished below 11-5.

1. New York Giants (11-5) Shot at first division crown.

3. Cleveland (9-7) Well, hello Browns! First winning season ever.

4. Washington (8-8) Defending division champ is a great spoiler.

5. Dallas (7-9) Cowboys endure a second down year.

6. Philadelphia (3-13) Eagles still grounded.

 

NFC Central

1. Detroit (11-5) Lion Country rejoice! First time visit to the playoffs!

2. Green Bay (9-7) SB Champs have won 25 consecutive regular season games.

3. Baltimore (7-9) Progress in Pony Town.

3. San Francisco (7-9) Blitz-happy over-achiever to 13-3 last season.

5. Chicago (6-10) Two seasons in a row to miss the playoffs?

6. Minnesota (5-11) Whazzup with the Vikings.

 

AFC East

1. Carolina (12-4) Division title should not be any trouble.

2. New York Jets (9-7) Could squeak out a playoff slot.

3. Boston (8-8) Chance at playoffs, needs to out coach NYJ and HOU.

4. Atlanta (7-9) First time to miss playoffs in 5 years

5. Buffalo (5-11) Uptick 2 wins since last season but needs a lot more work.

6. Miami (3-13) Dolphins remain underwater. One of only 3 teams never to make playoffs.

 

AFC Central

1. San Diego (13-3) #1 Offense + #2 Defense = Super Bowl

2. Oakland (12-4) Matchups vs SD will be games to watch

3. Houston (10-6) First winning season in franchise history?

4. Denver (9-7) Superior coaching will put wins into double digits.

5. Cincinnati (6-10) Setback from nice improvement (9-7) last season.

5. Kansas City (6-10) Lianos reviving Chiefs from the dead.

Round 1 Picks In: CAR or SD vs PIT in SB!

This will be the final pre-season prediction until the draft is done.

Based on 20 seasons of a computer-generated schedule, it looks like the Panthers and Chargers will face each other in the AFC Championship game. The Steelers could be facing division rival Giants in the NFC Championship. Both CAR and SD have the edge over PIT in the SB.

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh (12-4) Led by #2 defense but #7 offense is a weakness.

2. New York Giants (11-5) Top scoring offense but average defense is their demise.

3. Cleveland (9-7) Browns fan will rejoice: First winning season in franchise history.

4. Washington (8-8) Spoiler! Predicted 8-8 last season as well but went 12-4.

5. Philadelphia (4-12) Perhaps new owner can turn this franchise around.

5. Dallas (4-12) 2nd straight losing season for the Cowboys.

NFC Central

1. Green Bay (8-8) Super Bowl champ could struggle for playoff spot.

1. Detroit (8-8) Lions underachieved last year.

1. Baltimore (8-8) Colts severely underachieved last year.

4. Minnesota (6-10) Will miss the playoffs again.

4. San Francisco (6-10) 49ers severely OVERachieved last season.

6. Chicago (5-11) Owner Ziegert is used to winning seasons, this is uncharacteristic.

AFC East

1. Carolina (13-3) Contender for the 3rd season in a row. #2 offense, #4 defense

2. New York Jets (11-5) Jets fly again after one down season.

2. Boston (11-5) Patriots could miss playoffs at 11-5!

4. Miami (6-10) Dolphins not improving but not digressing either

5. Atlanta (5-11) Overachiever but difficult to make playoffs this season.

6. Buffalo (4-12) Hasn't had a winning season since 2007.

AFC Central
1. San Diego (13-3) Nordberg is best coach in USAFL: 80 wins (83%).

2. Oakland (12-4) Hello Raiders! Back from a short stint in mediocrity.

3. Denver (11-5) Mile High guys slide a bit, mainly on offense.

4. Houston (9-7) Won only 3 last year when expected to win 7.

5. Kansas City (5-11) Lianos needs to help Chiefs find inner Warrior.

6. Cincinnati (4-12) A down year for the Bengals after going 9-7.

Through Pick 22: PIT vs SD in SB!

10 seasons, through pick 22.

 

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh(13-3)

2. New York Giants (11-5)

3. Cleveland (9-7)

4. Washington (8-8)

5. Philadelphia (5-11)

6.  Dallas (3-13)

 

NFC Central

1. Green Bay (8-8)

1. Baltimore (8-8)

1. Detroit (8-8)

4. Chicago (7-9)

5. San Francisco (6-10)

5. Minnesota (6-10)

 

AFC East

1. Carolina (12-4)

2. New York Jets (10-6)

3. Boston (9-7)

4. Miami (7-9)

5. Buffalo (5-11)

6. Atlanta (4-12)

 

AFC Central

1. San Diego (13-3)

2. Oakland (12-4)

2. Denver (12-4)

4. Houston (9-7)

5. Cincinnati (5-11)

5. Kansas City (5-11)

 

Mid-Round 1 Prediction: PIT vs CAR in SB

 

These are the results of an 8 season simulation after adding the first 13 picks of the draft onto their teams.

 

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh (13-3)

2. New York Giants (12-4)

3. Cleveland (8-8)

4. Washington (7-9)

5. Philadelphia (5-11)

6. Dallas (4-12)

 

NFC Central

1. Green Bay (10-6)

2. Baltimore (8-8)

3. Detroit (7-9)

4. Chicago (6-10)

5. Minnesota (5-11)

6. San Francisco (4-12)

 

AFC East

1. Carolina (13-3)

2. New York Jets (11-5)

3. Boston (11-5)

4. Miami (6-10)

5. Atlanta (5-11)

6. Buffalo (4-12)

 

AFC Central

1. San Diego (12-4)

2. Oakland (11-5)

3. Denver (11-5)

4. Houston (10-6)

5. Cincinnati (5-11)

6. Kansas City (3-13)

 

 

Pre-Draft Prediction: PIT vs OAK in SB

Pre-Draft simulations match the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Oakland Raiders in USAFL SB V.

 

Both teams posted an average record of 13-3 over 10 simulated seasons. The Steelers had the top defense, the Raiders had the top offense.

 

Here's how the divisions broke down...

 

NFC East

1. Pittsburgh (13-3) #1 offense, #4 defense

2. New York Giants (11-5)

3. Cleveland (8-8)

4. Washington (8-8)

5. Dallas (5-11)

6. Philadelphia (4-12)

 

NFC Central

1. Detroit (10-6) #10 offense, #5 defense

2. Green Bay (9-7)

3. Baltimore (8-8)

4. San Francisco (7-9)

5. Minnesota (5-11)

6. Chicago (5-11)

 

AFC East

1. Carolina (12-4) #3 offense, #3 defense

2. Boston (10-6)

3. New York Jets (8-8)

4. Miami (7-9)

5. Atlanta (7-9)

6. Buffalo (3-13)

 

AFC Central

1. Oakland (13-3) #1 offense, #2 defense

2. San Diego (11-5)

3. Denver (10-6)

4. Houston (9-7)

5. Cincinnati (6-10)

6. Kansas City (4-12)

 

Conference Semi-Finals

The Seeds

 

1. Green Bay (16-0)

2. Washington (12-4)

3. San Francisco (13-3)

4. Pittsburgh (12-4) Eliminated.

5. New York Giants (11-5)

 

1. Denver (14-2)

2. Carolina (14-2)

3. San Diego (13-3)

4. Atlanta (13-3)

5. Boston (11-5) Eliminated.

 

Wild Card Results

 

New York Giants (+2) defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 17-7

Atlanta Falcons (+7) defeated the Boston Patriots, 31-17

 

Conference Semi-Finals

 

#3 San Francisco +15 @ #2 Washington

#3 San Diego +6 @ #2 Carolina

#5 New York +2 @ #1 Green Bay

#4 Atlanta +21 @ #1 Denver

 

Playoffs Round 1

Week 16 Accuracy: 67% (8 of 12)

Season Accuracy: 71% (137 of 192)

 

1. Green Bay (16-0)

2. Washington (12-4)

3. San Francisco (13-3)

4. Pittsburgh (12-4)

5. New York Giants (11-5)

 

1. Denver (14-2)

2. Carolina (14-2)

3. San Diego (13-3)

4. Atlanta (13-3)

5. Boston (11-5)

 

 

Playoffs: Wild Card and Round 2

 

#5 New York Giants +2 @ #4 Pittsburgh

The Giants swept division rival Pittsburgh during the regular season. Both games had tie scores for much of the 4th quarter. New York scored the go ahead touchdowns with 1:53 and 2:36 left in the games and the Steelers turned it over both times on their final drives.

 

#4 Atlanta +7 vs #5 Boston

Visiting team favored in this one. These division mates split their matches with Boston getting dominated in week 1, 30-13. In week 16, the Patriots won narrowly, 23-21.

 

#3 San Francisco +15 @ #2 Washington

The 49ers have rode Man Pass Blitz-1 Line-Inside and a ball control running offense to the playoffs. SF upset WAS in week 6, 23-21. SF's is missing 3 starters on their offensive line. But their offensive line wasn't that great to being with so it may not make a difference.

 

#3 San Diego +6 @ #2 Carolina

The Chargers lost in week 11 to the Panthers, 27-26 on the final play of the game - Romo to Celek for a 9 yard TD. Great game.