Season vs Simulation Results

Payton Conference Championship Preview

+10 Hermitage Heroes at NW Missouri Rednecks

Predicted Score: 28-17

 

In one of the best games of the season, the Heroes brought some smack to the Rednecks in week 9, going up 20-7 before eventually succumbing in with only 2:32 left in overtime 32-26. NW Missouri never led in the game until the final score. Is it possible they can bring it again, this time in the 'W' column? Uh...no.

 

NW Missouri Offense vs Hermitage Defense

 

The Rednecks have the highest scoring offense in the league, averaging 33 pts per game led by Carson Palmer's 41 TD passes. The Rednecks average almost 300 yds passing per game. Torry Holt snagged 14 TDs followed by Tony Gonzalez and Steve Smith with 8 each.

Michael Westbrook is the primary ground attack which is 6th in the league at 119.6 yds per game running behind the best offensive line for running in the league with 52 run rating.

 

The Hermitage defense allowed 19 pts per game placing them 9th in points allowed. This is not a good matchup against THE top rated offense. They allow a lot of yards on both the air and ground (14th and 19th respectively) but finished in the top 10 in scoring for both (22 passing TDs and 7 rushing TDs). They are among the worst in the league (22nd) in average yards allowed per run at 4.5. The Heroe's have a good balanced talent spread throughout the positions with no glaring weaknesses. Half of the time they deploy in a 4-2 Nickel defense which may account for their poor run defense numbers.

 

Advantage: NW Missouri

 

Hermitage Offense vs NW Missouri Defense

 

The Heroes have done very well on offense considering the unimpressive talent in the air game. Jon Kitna posted a 90.5 rating, throwing 29 TDs, vastly exceed his real life numbers of 80.9 and 18 TDs. Kitna's receivers are a serviceable, if not remarkable, bunch including WR Andre Johnson (61 catches, 6 TDs), WR Dennis Northcutt (45 catches, 8 TDs) and TE Jeremy Shockey (59 catches, 3 TDs). Of course, the passing game is always helped by an excellent running game and Hermitage is no exception with LaDainian Tomlinson's 1758 yds and 10 TDs keeping defenses honest. The Heroes, like the Rednecks, have an excellent offensive line (49 run, 41 pass) that helped boost L.D.s running and reduce Kitna's sacks.

 

Hermitage faces a run stuffing Redneck defense that ranking 4th in scoring (16.8 pts per game) and 1st against the run, allowing only 68.5 yds per game. However, Hermitage was one of the rare teams to have success on the ground against them during the regular season with Tomlinson rushing for 126 yds, 1 td, and a 4.2 average in spite of being keyed constantly by the Rednecks. NW Missouri's pass defense is a few notches below their run defense but still stout, ranking 6th in the league. Kitna did okay against it in week 9, throwing for 23 of 38, 255 yds, 1 tds and no interceptions.

 

Advantage: Hermitage. On paper this is NW Missouri but the week 9 evidence shows me the Heroes have a knack for making the most of things when they have the ball.

Simpson Conference Championship Preview Part 2

Nashville Offense vs Tillman Defense

 

The offensive Force is to be reckoned with, #2 scoring in the league at 32.1 pts per game. Brett Favre is the QB, acquired in a trade sending Kurt Warner to Real Charleston. He has a nice group of players to throw to including receivers Bobby "Thanks Dad" Engram, Anquan "Shouting Match" Boldin, Ike "I Like" Hilliard and TE Antonio "Open the Flood" Gates. This talented crew only ranked 11th in passing yards (216 per game) but, like Tillman, had one of the highest yards per attempt averages in the league.

 

Bruiser RB Fred Taylor heads up the ground game, rushing for over 1,000 yds at 5.9 avg per carry for 6 TDs. Taylor is backed up by Kenny Watson who ran for 5 TDs and is an effective target out of the backfield catching 43 passes and 1 TD. Nashville's offensive line is above average but isn't among the best in the league. They rank 8th in run block rating (45)  and 6th in pass blocking (35). Favre was put on his back 24 times compared to 15 in real stats.

 

Tillman's defense is best of league against the pass, allowing only 157 yds per game and 17 TDs. They prefer interceptions (22, ranked 4th) to sacks (33, ranked 9th) as their big plays. Although they ranked 7th against the run (96.8 yds per game, 4 tds), they allow more yards per carry (4.8) than any other team in the league. This could be the result of getting a big lead and going to pass defense which could open up an opponent's running game. (Obviously, an effective approach since Tillman did not lose a game this season.)

 

Whatever possible flaws in their defense, the scoreboard numbers don't lie. The Rangers are 2nd in the league preventing opponents from scoring. They allow opponents to score, on average, less than 2 touchdowns a game. However, Nashville was one of the two teams able to score more than 20 points against them this season, rolling up 30 in a 48-30 loss in week 9.

 

Tillman's total defense ratings are high, ranking 4th (81 rating points) in their base 4-3 defense they deploy half of the time and 5th (80 points) in their nickel package used about a third of the time. But they are average in points involving pass defense in the 4-3 : pass defense rating, rush rating, interceptions and sacks. But their nickel pass rating is one of the best compared to other teams' nickel defenses although the other numbers change very little. The run defense points are excellent (3rd) in both platoons. This makes the 4.8a even more curious.

 

Advantage: Tillman. This was tough to analyze but, taking into account the big picture, I think the Rangers will get ahead in the game and force Nashville to pass. This plays into the strength of the Tillman defense where Safety Bob Sanders & Co. will go Nickel and shut down Favre.

 

If you've read this far, you deserve to know the point spread:

+3 Nashville Force at Tillman Rangers

Predicted Score: Tillman 24, Nashville 21

 

A 20 season simulation had Nashville as 4 point underdogs.  A 40 season simulation put them as even. This should be a closer game than 48-30.

Simpson Conference Championship Preview Part 1

Tillman Offense vs Nashville Defense

 

The Force is 1-3 lifetime against the Rangers, the only win coming in the 2005 season when the Rangers went 2-14. Tillman defeated Nashville by 18 points in both of their last two meetings including week 9 of this season. That game included 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns

 

At the helm of the Tillman offensive juggarnaut (#3 in scoring with 31.6 pts per game) is QB David Garrard who threw for 21 tds and only 5 ints for the top TTFBA rating of 124.3. However, he is brittle (3 durability), so he only had 197 attempts which was half the attempts of the average top 10 QB. His most rewarding pass catchers were WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (86 catches, 13 tds) and TE Kellen Winslow (5 tds). WR Dwayne Bowe (55 receptions, 3tds),  acquired in a trade that should be the prototype when taking advantage of new owners,  rounds out the target rich environment for Garrard.

 

Although the Nashville secondary doesn't boast any players above a 7 rating, they managed to rank fifth against the pass (183.3 yds per game). And they play in a division where they must face the likes of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Matt Hasselbeck. The defense is in the top 3 of interceptions (27) and sacks (43). Still, Garrard exposed weakness in the Force pass defense in week 9 by throwing for 4 tds and only 1 int.

 

Though Tillman may've scored more touchdowns through the air (29 vs 23 rushing), it is the ground game that's the pulverizing force of their offense, rushing at a clip of 167 yds per game. A corral full of backs led by LenDale White runs behind one of the top offensive lines in the league. This ground hog game faces one of the best run defenses in the Force who have allowed only 80 yds per game and 3.5 yds per rush this season - 2nd in the league. Both their base and nickel defenses have the highest rated set of players against the run than any other team in the league. The Rangers' Ronnie Brown averaged 6.5 yds per carry against Nashville in their regular season game but none of the bulls in the corral were able to score a TD.

 

Advantage: Tillman. They simply have too many weapons for Nashville to contain.

Payton Round 2 Point Spreads

Round 1 Accuracy: 1 out of 4. That's right. But it'll be better this week.

 

+3 Knoxville (#3 9-7) +3 @ Hermitage (#2 10-6)

 

This should be the closest game in round 2, both teams match up very well. Neither team has an advantage in any category. A superior Hermitage passing game is offset by a superior Knoxville pass defense. Knoxville does have a punt returner, Steve Breaston, who can return one for a touchdown. Maybe that will be the difference.

 

Offense: K #10, H #6

Rushing: K #11, TDs #15, H #5, TDs #6

Passing: K #16 TDs #12, H #6, TDs #8

 

Defense: K #8, H #9

Rushing: K #18, H #19

Passing: K #9 (23 TDs - #11), H #14 (22 TDs - #8)

 

+16 San Pedro (#5 9-7) @ NW Missouri (#1 12-4)

 

NW Missouri has the top scoring offense in the league. QB Carson Palmer threw for an average of almost 300 yds per game to a cornicopia of targets : WRs Holt (93 receptions) and Smith (87 receptions), TE Gonzalez (99 receptions) and Westbrook out of the backfield (90 receptions). That array of weaponry will put a lot of stress on a porous San Pedro pass defense, one of the worst in the league in keeping touchdown passes from occurring (31 for the season.)

 

Offense: SP #11 (21.3), NWM #1 (33.0)

Rushing: SP #2, TDs #5, TDs, NWM #6, TDs #3

Passing: SP #19 (175.2, TDs 23), NWM #1 (297.0 TDs 41)

 

Defense: SP #10 (20.6), NWM #4 (16.8)

Rushing: SP #16 (111.6, 7TDs), NWM #1 (68.5, 4TDs)

Passing: SP #11 (31 TDs - #21), NWM #6 (18 TDS - #5)

 

 

 

TTFBA Simpson Conference Playoffs

Simpson Round 1 Recap

 

Steeltown Roughcut (+1) 42, Montcalm Panthers 31

 

A tale of two Tony Romos. The Steeltown QB threw 3 interceptions in a 9 minute span starting with 6:14 to go in the first half, two of which led to Montcalm Panther touchdowns. The third INT came with 1 second left in the half. The result was a 24-7 Montcalm lead at the 8:02 mark in the 3rd quarter.

 

But the coach's confidence in Romo did not waver as he kept calling the QB's number. The payoff was a TD on the next possession with Romo going 5 of 6 for 82 yards and running it in himself on a broken down pass play. PR Devin Hester added another 6 on an 80 yard punt return after the Panthers went 3 and out closing the Montcalm lead to 24-21.

 

Montcalm opened the 4th quarter, though, with a score to open their lead back up to 10. Then the wheels (or is it paws?) came off the Montcalm Panther team. The defense allowed WR Jerricho Cotchery and Romo complete access to their endzone allowing two huge pass plays of 45 and 40 yards for touchdowns. The Roughcut took their first lead of the game, 35-31, when it was most important: with 2:02 left.

 

The Panthers started with good field position on a 37 yard kick return but Willie Parker, whom this blog named as the critical component of a Montcalm win, fumbled the ball away on the following play. Steeltown struck fast with the 40 yarder mentioned earlier, sealing the victory.

 

Great Lakes Midshipmen (-15) 20, Muncie Packers 19

 

WOW. What a great game in the pouring rain at the Orange Bowl. The first half was primarily a field goal kicking exhibition by 38 year old Muncie kicker John Kasay who went 4 for 4 for an average distance of 38 yds. The Midshipmen offense only answered with one FG of their own by the young and spry 32 year old Matt Bryant. Halftime score: 12-3.

 

Great Lakes got on track in the 2nd half scoring a TD and a FG on either side of the 3rd-4th quarter break. Key play on the drive was a 23 yard run by Clinton Portis on a pitch right.

Peyton Manning provided an assist on the FG throwing an INT to finish out the 3rd quarter for Muncie. But the Midshipmen did not hold onto the lead very long as Manning led the Packers on an 84 yard drive including a 42 yard completion to Reggie Brown, throwing deep against a short zone. 19-13, Muncie.

 

Great Lakes went on a clock devastating 7:37 minute drive and came out with...nothing, with Hasselbeck fumbling the ball away with 47 seconds left in the game only 10 yards from a TD, a win, advancing in the playoffs. All the Packers had to do was use up the crumbs of clock. So, Deshaun Foster, three dive plays netting 1 yard. All that's left in a punt with 9 seconds to go from the 11. Hmm. The Midshipmen have Ed Reed as a returner, he returned one for a TD during the season. But Muncie has no choice on a 4th and 9 from their own 11 so they set up the punt. There's the snap, Dustin Colquitt gets it, kicks it but WHAT'S THIS??? DE Tamba Hali BLOCKs it and Warren "Dancing with the Stars" Sapp picks it up and rumbles, stumbles, does the jitterbug into the end zone.

 

WOW.

 

 

Simpson Round 2 Point Spreads

 

#4 Great Lakes Midshipmen +11 at #1 Tillman Rangers

Predicted Score: TIL 31, GLM 20

 

The Rangers won 28-14 in week 8 on two big plays: A Chester Taylor 71 yard run for a TD in the 1st quarter and a 47 yard INT return for a TD by Brodney Pool. Great Lakes had a big play of their own, a 98 yard KR by Leon Washington. Take those out and it is still a 7 pt victory by the Rangers. The Midshipmen turned the ball over 4 times, including Matt Hasselbeck's 3 interceptions. He finished with a 40.4 rating, remarkably not his worst outing of the year.

 

Tillman Offense #3 vs Great Lakes Defense #3 

 

This is not a good matchup for Great Lakes. They were #11 against the run in yards and scoring. Tillman is #1 on the offensive side of those categories. The Midshipmen defense is better against the pass (#4 in yards, #2 in scoring) but the scary thing is although the Rangers were #13 in passing yards, they were #6 in passing TDs along with being tops in yards per catch with 13.5.

 

Great Lakes Offense #5 vs Tillman Defense #2

 

This is not a good matchup for Great Lakes on the air game. The Tillman defense is #1 in passing yards allowed and #3 in passing TDs allowed, the Midshipmen offesne was #8 in passing yards and #7 in passing TDs. They were 10th in yards per catch at 11.5 yards.

 

It's more even on the ground game but still unfavorable for the Midshipmen. Tillman is tops in keeping running plays out of the end zone allowing only 4 TDs all season. Great Lakes is 9th in rushing yards and 7th in rushing TDs. Tillman is 7th in preventing run yards.

 

  

 

#3 Steeltown Roughcut +11 at Nashville Force

Predicted Score: NAS 28, STE 17

 

These teams met in week 15 when 3 consecutive turnovers by the Roughcut turned the game into a route midway through the 2nd quarter. It is difficult to recover from a 31-7 deficit. The final score was 41-28. But, still, the numbers give a huge advantage to Nashville, especially when they are on offense.

 

Nashville Offense #2 vs Steeltown Defense #16

 

The Steeltown defense is next to last in passing TDs allowed. The Nashville offense is #5 in passing TDs, scoring 31. The Roughcut sieveish passing defense is odd considering they have the top passing rating points in a base defense. However, one starting CB (Eric Wright) is a 5 rating and the other CB, Chris McAlister has a 2 durability. The stats say he did play in 16 computer games but perhaps he got dinged up instead of missing entire games.

 

Add in the mediocre Roughcut run defense against the #2 scoring run offense, this is one ugly situation for Steeltown.

 

Steeltown Offense #4 vs Nashville Defense #6

 

STE Offense #4:  Run Yds=#15,  Run TDs=#8, Pass Yds=#2, Pass TDs=#3

NAS Defense #6: Run Yds=#2, Run TDs=#2, Pass Yds=#5, Pass TDs=#12

 

This looks better for Steeltown but the lack of a running game exposes them to a defensive strategy of daring them to beat an opponent on the ground. The Force could sit back in pass defense all day because even in a nickel package they still have more defense run rating points than most of the league in basic. But if Tony Romo can avoid his propensity for throwing INTs at the most inopportune times (see week 15), he can have some success against the Nashville pass defense that is average keeping air TDs from occurring.