+10 Hermitage Heroes at NW Missouri Rednecks
Predicted Score: 28-17
In one of the best games of the season, the Heroes brought some smack to the Rednecks in week 9, going up 20-7 before eventually succumbing in with only 2:32 left in overtime 32-26. NW Missouri never led in the game until the final score. Is it possible they can bring it again, this time in the 'W' column? Uh...no.
NW Missouri Offense vs Hermitage Defense
The Rednecks have the highest scoring offense in the league, averaging 33 pts per game led by Carson Palmer's 41 TD passes. The Rednecks average almost 300 yds passing per game. Torry Holt snagged 14 TDs followed by Tony Gonzalez and Steve Smith with 8 each.
Michael Westbrook is the primary ground attack which is 6th in the league at 119.6 yds per game running behind the best offensive line for running in the league with 52 run rating.
The Hermitage defense allowed 19 pts per game placing them 9th in points allowed. This is not a good matchup against THE top rated offense. They allow a lot of yards on both the air and ground (14th and 19th respectively) but finished in the top 10 in scoring for both (22 passing TDs and 7 rushing TDs). They are among the worst in the league (22nd) in average yards allowed per run at 4.5. The Heroe's have a good balanced talent spread throughout the positions with no glaring weaknesses. Half of the time they deploy in a 4-2 Nickel defense which may account for their poor run defense numbers.
Advantage: NW Missouri
Hermitage Offense vs NW Missouri Defense
The Heroes have done very well on offense considering the unimpressive talent in the air game. Jon Kitna posted a 90.5 rating, throwing 29 TDs, vastly exceed his real life numbers of 80.9 and 18 TDs. Kitna's receivers are a serviceable, if not remarkable, bunch including WR Andre Johnson (61 catches, 6 TDs), WR Dennis Northcutt (45 catches, 8 TDs) and TE Jeremy Shockey (59 catches, 3 TDs). Of course, the passing game is always helped by an excellent running game and Hermitage is no exception with LaDainian Tomlinson's 1758 yds and 10 TDs keeping defenses honest. The Heroes, like the Rednecks, have an excellent offensive line (49 run, 41 pass) that helped boost L.D.s running and reduce Kitna's sacks.
Hermitage faces a run stuffing Redneck defense that ranking 4th in scoring (16.8 pts per game) and 1st against the run, allowing only 68.5 yds per game. However, Hermitage was one of the rare teams to have success on the ground against them during the regular season with Tomlinson rushing for 126 yds, 1 td, and a 4.2 average in spite of being keyed constantly by the Rednecks. NW Missouri's pass defense is a few notches below their run defense but still stout, ranking 6th in the league. Kitna did okay against it in week 9, throwing for 23 of 38, 255 yds, 1 tds and no interceptions.
Advantage: Hermitage. On paper this is NW Missouri but the week 9 evidence shows me the Heroes have a knack for making the most of things when they have the ball.
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