Nashville Offense vs Tillman Defense
The offensive Force is to be reckoned with, #2 scoring in the league at 32.1 pts per game. Brett Favre is the QB, acquired in a trade sending Kurt Warner to Real Charleston. He has a nice group of players to throw to including receivers Bobby "Thanks Dad" Engram, Anquan "Shouting Match" Boldin, Ike "I Like" Hilliard and TE Antonio "Open the Flood" Gates. This talented crew only ranked 11th in passing yards (216 per game) but, like Tillman, had one of the highest yards per attempt averages in the league.
Bruiser RB Fred Taylor heads up the ground game, rushing for over 1,000 yds at 5.9 avg per carry for 6 TDs. Taylor is backed up by Kenny Watson who ran for 5 TDs and is an effective target out of the backfield catching 43 passes and 1 TD. Nashville's offensive line is above average but isn't among the best in the league. They rank 8th in run block rating (45) and 6th in pass blocking (35). Favre was put on his back 24 times compared to 15 in real stats.
Tillman's defense is best of league against the pass, allowing only 157 yds per game and 17 TDs. They prefer interceptions (22, ranked 4th) to sacks (33, ranked 9th) as their big plays. Although they ranked 7th against the run (96.8 yds per game, 4 tds), they allow more yards per carry (4.8) than any other team in the league. This could be the result of getting a big lead and going to pass defense which could open up an opponent's running game. (Obviously, an effective approach since Tillman did not lose a game this season.)
Whatever possible flaws in their defense, the scoreboard numbers don't lie. The Rangers are 2nd in the league preventing opponents from scoring. They allow opponents to score, on average, less than 2 touchdowns a game. However, Nashville was one of the two teams able to score more than 20 points against them this season, rolling up 30 in a 48-30 loss in week 9.
Tillman's total defense ratings are high, ranking 4th (81 rating points) in their base 4-3 defense they deploy half of the time and 5th (80 points) in their nickel package used about a third of the time. But they are average in points involving pass defense in the 4-3 : pass defense rating, rush rating, interceptions and sacks. But their nickel pass rating is one of the best compared to other teams' nickel defenses although the other numbers change very little. The run defense points are excellent (3rd) in both platoons. This makes the 4.8a even more curious.
Advantage: Tillman. This was tough to analyze but, taking into account the big picture, I think the Rangers will get ahead in the game and force Nashville to pass. This plays into the strength of the Tillman defense where Safety Bob Sanders & Co. will go Nickel and shut down Favre.
If you've read this far, you deserve to know the point spread:
+3 Nashville Force at Tillman Rangers
Predicted Score: Tillman 24, Nashville 21
A 20 season simulation had Nashville as 4 point underdogs. A 40 season simulation put them as even. This should be a closer game than 48-30.
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