TTFBA Simpson Conference Playoffs

Simpson Round 1 Recap

 

Steeltown Roughcut (+1) 42, Montcalm Panthers 31

 

A tale of two Tony Romos. The Steeltown QB threw 3 interceptions in a 9 minute span starting with 6:14 to go in the first half, two of which led to Montcalm Panther touchdowns. The third INT came with 1 second left in the half. The result was a 24-7 Montcalm lead at the 8:02 mark in the 3rd quarter.

 

But the coach's confidence in Romo did not waver as he kept calling the QB's number. The payoff was a TD on the next possession with Romo going 5 of 6 for 82 yards and running it in himself on a broken down pass play. PR Devin Hester added another 6 on an 80 yard punt return after the Panthers went 3 and out closing the Montcalm lead to 24-21.

 

Montcalm opened the 4th quarter, though, with a score to open their lead back up to 10. Then the wheels (or is it paws?) came off the Montcalm Panther team. The defense allowed WR Jerricho Cotchery and Romo complete access to their endzone allowing two huge pass plays of 45 and 40 yards for touchdowns. The Roughcut took their first lead of the game, 35-31, when it was most important: with 2:02 left.

 

The Panthers started with good field position on a 37 yard kick return but Willie Parker, whom this blog named as the critical component of a Montcalm win, fumbled the ball away on the following play. Steeltown struck fast with the 40 yarder mentioned earlier, sealing the victory.

 

Great Lakes Midshipmen (-15) 20, Muncie Packers 19

 

WOW. What a great game in the pouring rain at the Orange Bowl. The first half was primarily a field goal kicking exhibition by 38 year old Muncie kicker John Kasay who went 4 for 4 for an average distance of 38 yds. The Midshipmen offense only answered with one FG of their own by the young and spry 32 year old Matt Bryant. Halftime score: 12-3.

 

Great Lakes got on track in the 2nd half scoring a TD and a FG on either side of the 3rd-4th quarter break. Key play on the drive was a 23 yard run by Clinton Portis on a pitch right.

Peyton Manning provided an assist on the FG throwing an INT to finish out the 3rd quarter for Muncie. But the Midshipmen did not hold onto the lead very long as Manning led the Packers on an 84 yard drive including a 42 yard completion to Reggie Brown, throwing deep against a short zone. 19-13, Muncie.

 

Great Lakes went on a clock devastating 7:37 minute drive and came out with...nothing, with Hasselbeck fumbling the ball away with 47 seconds left in the game only 10 yards from a TD, a win, advancing in the playoffs. All the Packers had to do was use up the crumbs of clock. So, Deshaun Foster, three dive plays netting 1 yard. All that's left in a punt with 9 seconds to go from the 11. Hmm. The Midshipmen have Ed Reed as a returner, he returned one for a TD during the season. But Muncie has no choice on a 4th and 9 from their own 11 so they set up the punt. There's the snap, Dustin Colquitt gets it, kicks it but WHAT'S THIS??? DE Tamba Hali BLOCKs it and Warren "Dancing with the Stars" Sapp picks it up and rumbles, stumbles, does the jitterbug into the end zone.

 

WOW.

 

 

Simpson Round 2 Point Spreads

 

#4 Great Lakes Midshipmen +11 at #1 Tillman Rangers

Predicted Score: TIL 31, GLM 20

 

The Rangers won 28-14 in week 8 on two big plays: A Chester Taylor 71 yard run for a TD in the 1st quarter and a 47 yard INT return for a TD by Brodney Pool. Great Lakes had a big play of their own, a 98 yard KR by Leon Washington. Take those out and it is still a 7 pt victory by the Rangers. The Midshipmen turned the ball over 4 times, including Matt Hasselbeck's 3 interceptions. He finished with a 40.4 rating, remarkably not his worst outing of the year.

 

Tillman Offense #3 vs Great Lakes Defense #3 

 

This is not a good matchup for Great Lakes. They were #11 against the run in yards and scoring. Tillman is #1 on the offensive side of those categories. The Midshipmen defense is better against the pass (#4 in yards, #2 in scoring) but the scary thing is although the Rangers were #13 in passing yards, they were #6 in passing TDs along with being tops in yards per catch with 13.5.

 

Great Lakes Offense #5 vs Tillman Defense #2

 

This is not a good matchup for Great Lakes on the air game. The Tillman defense is #1 in passing yards allowed and #3 in passing TDs allowed, the Midshipmen offesne was #8 in passing yards and #7 in passing TDs. They were 10th in yards per catch at 11.5 yards.

 

It's more even on the ground game but still unfavorable for the Midshipmen. Tillman is tops in keeping running plays out of the end zone allowing only 4 TDs all season. Great Lakes is 9th in rushing yards and 7th in rushing TDs. Tillman is 7th in preventing run yards.

 

  

 

#3 Steeltown Roughcut +11 at Nashville Force

Predicted Score: NAS 28, STE 17

 

These teams met in week 15 when 3 consecutive turnovers by the Roughcut turned the game into a route midway through the 2nd quarter. It is difficult to recover from a 31-7 deficit. The final score was 41-28. But, still, the numbers give a huge advantage to Nashville, especially when they are on offense.

 

Nashville Offense #2 vs Steeltown Defense #16

 

The Steeltown defense is next to last in passing TDs allowed. The Nashville offense is #5 in passing TDs, scoring 31. The Roughcut sieveish passing defense is odd considering they have the top passing rating points in a base defense. However, one starting CB (Eric Wright) is a 5 rating and the other CB, Chris McAlister has a 2 durability. The stats say he did play in 16 computer games but perhaps he got dinged up instead of missing entire games.

 

Add in the mediocre Roughcut run defense against the #2 scoring run offense, this is one ugly situation for Steeltown.

 

Steeltown Offense #4 vs Nashville Defense #6

 

STE Offense #4:  Run Yds=#15,  Run TDs=#8, Pass Yds=#2, Pass TDs=#3

NAS Defense #6: Run Yds=#2, Run TDs=#2, Pass Yds=#5, Pass TDs=#12

 

This looks better for Steeltown but the lack of a running game exposes them to a defensive strategy of daring them to beat an opponent on the ground. The Force could sit back in pass defense all day because even in a nickel package they still have more defense run rating points than most of the league in basic. But if Tony Romo can avoid his propensity for throwing INTs at the most inopportune times (see week 15), he can have some success against the Nashville pass defense that is average keeping air TDs from occurring.