Wausau Blue Bombers (+2) vs New England Generals

The home team Harris division winner Wausau (10-6) are 2 point underdogs against New England (9-7), the Tony Dorsett division champ. Before I chew on the strengths and weaknesses of these teams, the DTC would like to congratulate Wausau on an excellent season. They just missed the cut of making the playoffs in the Center's pre-season simulations. Yet here they are. Colossus is not pleased. And we like that. Now on to the nitpicking... New England Offense vs Wausau Defense The Generals only averaged 20.2 pts per game during the season which is surprising when you look at the personnel involved. QB Jay Cutler (3162 yds, 62.7%, 17 tds). WRs Reggie Wayne (80 recs) and Braylon Edwards (73 recs). The running duties are shared between RB Pierre "Who?" Thomas (762 yds, 4.4 avg, 4 tds) and RB Maurice "Who?" Morris (731 yds, 4.2 avg, 5 tds) behind a very good offensive line. There's some defense in their division, mainly NW Missouri but, on average, nothing extraordinary. I checked their defensive coaching accuracy - no glaring weaknesses there. I should've checked their schedule first - losses to Tillman, Real Charleston, Steeltown, Hermitage, NW Missouri. Yes, NW Missouri. Say what you want about their showing this season, they still had one of the best defenses. The "Who?" duo are the strength of the General offense which ranked 4th in rushing, 125.1 yds per game although ranking only 10th in TDs on the ground is odd. The passing game is, putting it generously, average. The only pass stats they make the top 10 in are yards per completion (9th at 11 per) and pass completion percentage (ranked 9th at 63%). But, heh, if you rely on your ground game, maybe you don't need to pass that much. It's just important, that when you do, you make it count. If the Generals get in your red zone - fogetuhboutit 88.4% scoring (3rd) and booyah! a 53.5% Red Zone TD scoring %, ranked 7th. But, oh, what have we on the other side with the Wausau defense? What's that stat? 2nd ranked against the run, allowing only 75.6 yds per game? Hmmm? DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and DT Shaun Rogers eat unsuspecting RBs that come their way. OLB LaMarr Woodley finishes any remnants that may remain if they get by those grinders. The defense is much more lenient against the pass but, overall, they don't like people scoring (5th in the league) only giving up 17.9 points per game. So, we have strength (run) going into strength (run). But If New England can crank up that passing game ala that 4 TD party against SoCal in week 13, the Blue Bombers will be blown out of the sky. Wausau Offense vs New England Defense The Blue Bombers have a solid, if not spectacular offense headed up by QB Brett "The Immortal" Favre (3503 yds, 66.1%, 23 tds, 18 ints, 18 sks, 86.8 rating) in his prior incarnation. Mr. Favre has a high TD% (4.6%, ranked 5th) but also a high pass INT% (3.6%, ranked 20th). Yeah, remember THAT Brett Favre? The one who liked to just heave it up there, sometimes making Packer and Jet fans cringe as it made a parabola right into the hands of an opposing DB without a wide receiver in a 20 yard radius? Favre tosses it to WR Larry Fitzgerald (108 recs, 8 tds) when he's not tossing it to opposing DBs. Unfortunately, that's about the only WR of consequence on Wausau's roster. *Cough* Double team *Cough*. Sorry. A little cold there. RB Steven "Ugh the Rams" Jackson (1068 yds, 3.5 avg, 5 tds) handes the running attack. Well, not attack, more like "suggestion". A 3.5 yard average really couldn't be called an attack, could it? One of the worst in the league. They boast that and one of the worst rushing TD% in the league as well. The do score, averaging 20.5 pts per game (9th rank) but it looks like they do it from long range because their Red Zone scoring and TD% is terrible. It would be the bottom if the "Death" in Death Valley didn't refer to their own Defense. New England keeps opponents 3 points less than that, ranked 4th in the league. They have an aversion to allowing running backs much, ranking in the top 5 in all rushing categories. What a D-line: DE Justin Tuck (10 sks, 27 hurries), DT Vince Wilfork (2 sks, 6 hurries), DE Mathias Kiwanuka (8 sks, 17 hurries, 4 forced fumbles) that take down QBs with the same success they stop RBs in their tracks. 36 sacks overall. Wausau's offensive line can't keep Favre from an passing during an A.D.D. but they do keep him upright to do it. The Blue Bomber offensive line smashing against the General defensive line will be a sight to behold. And speaking of errant passes (I've mentioned Favre is prone to the occassional INT, haven't I?), General CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (4 ints, 1 for a td) will be on hand to accept any of Brett's gifts that give coaches ulcers New England is vulnerable through the air. If Favre can stay focused, not get bored, not argue with his coach, not call an audible every time coach sends in a Jackson run, not throw to Rodgers-Cromartie, CB Carlos Rogers, S Donte Whitner, nickel and dime and quarter platoon backs, the sideline judge, a Wausau cheerleader or that fat guy whose face is painted in Blue Bomber colors - then Wausau will pull an upset.

#4 Montcalm Panthers (+4) @ #1 Fresno Outlaws

Fresno (13-3) did not play Montcalm (10-6) during the regular season.   Fresno Offense vs Montcalm Defense   A very potent Fresno offensive passing machine led by QB Donovan McNabb  (28 tds, 94.3 rating) will give the Panther secondary major problems.  CB Ike Taylor has a lot of tackles and not many deflections which provide an indication that he may not be adequate to keep WR Roddy White (95 recs, 11 tds) under control.   But the Outlaw offensive line is not very good, especially in the ground game where RB Maurice Jones-Drew, the lead rusher, only average 3.9 yards per carry. He did punch it in the end zone 15 times however. Montcalm is very good against the run, they have the advantage in this matchup. But Jones-Drew's pass catching ability provides another headache in the air.   The key could be DE Alex Brown who had a dime of sacks and 20 hurries during the season. The Fresno line will have their hands full. ILB Bradie James could be a factor as well but he must be utilized more as a blitzer than he was during the season (only 3 sacks compared to 8 during the real NFL season).   In spite of Montcalm's weakness on D, they haven't allowed opponents many points (18.4 per game). They give up yards (12th ranked) but not points (6th ranked). This is one of the more interesting matchups in the playoffs.     Montcalm Offense vs Fresno Defense   The comparison that jumped out when Montcalm has the ball is on turnovers. Fresno is tops in the league at stealing the ball from opponents, especially on fumble recoveries (36) but also on interceptions (17, ranked 7th). But QB Drew Brees & Co. was not likely to turn the ball over during the season. Is Fresno's success based on making things happen like that? That could be what determines who goes to the next round.   The Panther offense revolves around Brees (28 tds, 68.3%, 97.3 rating) and WR Wes Welker (128 recs, 10 tds). RB Matt Forte (1133 yds, 3.6 yds, 11 tds) handles the ground game with an assist from RB Willie Parker (585 yds, 4.5, tds). The Montcalm offensive line is very, very good which makes Forte's 3.6 average a curious stat.   This o-line talent is required if they want to keep monster DE Trent Cole (10 sks, 34 hurries, 10 stuffs, 7 deflections, 5 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries) from creating havoc. CBs Antoine Winfield (3 ints) and CB Quentin Jammer (2 ints) lead the secondary who are frequently left without much help because of Fresno's sack freaky defensive coordinator.   The aggressive defensive style of Fresno got them to 13-3 but they gave up city blocks of yardage, among the worst in the league. The talented offensive line of Montcalm will be a primary component of an upset. The Outlaws 3 losses were against teams that have good offensive lines. The opposing QBs in these games threw for an average of 318 yds, 3 tds and a 112 QB rating.

#4 Denver Dynamite (+14) @ #1 Donelson Warriors

This year's Super Bowl champ Donelson defeated division disputant Denver twice en route to an undefeated season by an average of 35 to 18. This playoff game will make a trifecta.   Denver Offense vs Donelson Defense The Warrior defense ranked #1 in preventing opponents from scoring, onlying an average of only 12.4 points pre game. Denver has a prolific offense, ranked 4th, scoring 23.7 points per game on average. QB Chad Pennington , WR Randy Moss and RB Adrian Peterson form their own trifecta of domination. TE Tony Gonzalez (103 receptions, 7 tds) provides some matchup problems for most defenses.   The Dynamite are ranked near the bottom in number of pass attempts (20th, only 448 attempts) but they make the most of them ranking high in pass rating (4th with 95.5), completion percentage (7th at 65.4%) and passing TD percentage (4.2%, ranked 7th). The #2 rusher in the league (1425 yds, 4.3 avg, Peterson carries the load 9 tds) carries the load, opening up the passing game.   But the Donelson defense is the most talented in the league. The starting lineup only contains only player rated less than 7, Greg Ellis, rated a lowly 6. The 2009 TTFBA Champion Warriors have done well mining the free agent list and the rosters of relations during the offseason and built one of the most formidable defenses in league history. DE Dwight Freeney (9 sacks, 21 hurries), OLB Joey Porter (9 sacks, 3 hurries) and CB Charles Woodson (8 deflections, 4 interceptions) make up the 9 rated starters.   Denver's assigned homework is to study games where opponents were able to put some points up. Transylvania in week 9, for instance. The Warriors were actually losing going into the 4th quarter only to score 23 unanswered points to win 40-29.     Donelson Offense vs Denver Defense Sadly, even if a team can score on Donelson, Donelson will score at will against them, average 36 points a game - tops in the league. The Team Charts report in Action has 30 categories on offense, the Warriors rank #1 in 16 of them. They are in the top 5 in 22 of them. RB Derrick Ward's 6.1 average (1144 yds, 8 tds) abuses teams on the ground, and QB Phillip Rivers tosses to WRs Antonio Bryant and Laveranues Coles. The Warriors have 3 of top 4 players in average yards per reception. Yeah. The Dynamite may be able to blow up some teams on the run (ranked 5th, allowing 78.6 yds per game) but are average against the pass. They allowed 20 touchdowns through the air during the season, ranked 15th.   Denver gave up 283 yds a game against Rivers, although he only tossed 2 touchdowns. The week 1 loss (29-10) is interesting because, the offense only scored a single touchdown and it was on the ground. One touchdown was a fumble recovery and the rest of the points were 5 Jason Hanson field goals. But the week 14 loss (41-27), they allowed Ward 105 yards and 3 touchdowns.   OLB James Harrison (7 sks, 10 hurries and 1 int for a TD) and DE Aaron Kampman (10 sks, 13 hurries) are the key defensive players but there just aren't enough of their caliber to avoid being overwhelmed by the Warrior offense. If the Denver offense can move the ball against Donelson and the defense can hang in there like they did in week 1, maybe, just maybe we could see an upset.   But don't count on it. A 14 point spread in Action is almost impossible to overcome because team talent trumps superior coaching. These are two excellent coaches so that makes it a wash anyway. Donelson 31, Denver 17.

#3 Dallas Gladiators (+3) @ #2 Tillman Rangers

Dallas (11-5) did not play Tillman (12-4) during the regular season. Dallas Offense vs Tillman Defense The Gladiators #8 scoring offense will have problems against the #2 scoring defense of the Rangers. Dallas' running game led by Steve Slaton (975 yds, 4.5 avg, 3 tds) is ranked 12th in yards per game (102.3) and 4th in average (4.3). On paper this looks like a good match against Tillman's #12 rank against the run and running average (3.9). But, when you look at the personnel, Tillman has one of the best defenses against the run in the league. That #12th rank may be because opponents try to use a ground game because their pass defense (1st in completion percentage (55.3%), 4th in interceptions with 18, 5th in passing yards and on and on) is so tough. For just a taste, look at their complete annihilation of Montcalm Panther QB Drew Brees. As a division opponent, Mr. Brees got to face the Ranger slapdown twice. Here's his stats: 24 of 56 (43%), 2 sacks, 5 interceptions, 1 pass for 25 yard or more, 1 touchdown for a QB rating of 29.4. Yeah, Rodgers will have his hands full. He spreads it around very evenly to WRs Steve Smith, Santonio Holmes and Anthony Gonzalez. Tillman's depth at safety provides some very nice nickel and dime coverage numbers. Rodgers will be pressured by DE Adewale Ogunleye who leads the team with 10 sacks and will have to watch out for CB Ellis Hobbs is the leader in picks with 4. Tillman Offense vs Dallas Defense The Gladiators are no slouch in the pass defense department either. They are in the top 5 of most pass defense categories except, curiously, interceptions where they are average. Still, the starting DBs have 10 picks and 2 tds among them, lead by CB Ronde Barber with half of them. Karlos Dansby heads up the LB corps (6 sks) and DE Darryl Tapp is outperforming higher rated DE Darnell Dockett on the line. The Rangers are lead by QB David Garrard (260 of 410, 63.4%, 17 tds, 11 ints, 87.6 rating). He would be worse if he didn't have such standout WRs to pass to like T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Dwayne Bowe and one year wonder Lance Moore. But Tillman's offense has rarely relied on a standout QB. Instead, using the same offensive formula that has netted them 3 consective division titles and last year's championship, they deploy a stable of RBs behind a massive offensive line and pound opponents to death on the ground. RBs Ronnie Brown (899 yds, 4.3 avg, 6 tds) and Chester Taylor (360 yds, 3.2 avg, 2 tds) lead the stampede with Selvin Young getting a few carries (36) to blow things up (6.7 yard average) and even Garrard getting in the act by taking off when a pass play isn't working and scampering for an average of 5 yards. They've combined for 116 yds/game (#6) and 15 touchdowns (#5). This does not make for a pretty situation for Dallas. They are the skim on the sludge at the bottom of the barrel in run defense, ranking 20th in yards per game, 19th in rushing average (4.1) and 14th in rushing TDs allowed (12).

#5 Montcalm Panthers (+1) @ #4 Real Charleston Galacticos

The Galacticos beat Montcalm in week 10, 28-14. The Panthers made it 20-14 with 6:26 left but Real Charleston put it away with 2:00 left with a 13 screen pass from QB Kurt Warner to 2nd string WR Malcom Floyd.   Montcalm Offense vs Real Charleston Defense   The Panthers offense boasts the talent of QB Dree Brees, WR Wes Welker and RBs Matt Forte and Willie Parker fronted by an excellent offensive line. Brees tossed 27 scoring passes, 10 of them to Welker. Forte punched in 9 touchdowns on the ground. No wonder this squad ranked 4th in scoring, averaging 24.5 points a game. When these guys get in the red zone, they score more often (61.7%) than any other team in the TTFBA. Brees is rarely sacked, throws few picks and completes 70% of his passes. The flaws are nitpicky - a low rushing average (3.7) and a low yards per completion 10.3.   But Real Charleston can shut down the pass, among the tops in the league, and they aren't too shabby in stopping the run either. They like to pick (20), sack (37) and keep offenses out of the endzone (16.6 points per game, 3rd in the league). DT Marcus Stroud and DE Robert Mathis on the line, Jon Beason back at LB and CB Cortland Finnegan on the top receiver.   Real Charleston Offense vs Montcalm Defense   The Panther offense against the Galacticos defense was a great matchup but on this side, Real Charleston has the edge. QB Kurt Warner could pick apart a defense that is among the worst in the league against the pass. The average QB rating of opposing QBs against Montcalm : 91.7. Very bad. They are much better against the run which is not a strength of Real Charleston. Chris Johnson (1088 yds, 4.1 avg, 7 tds) leads the attack but it is the 15th ranked rushing offense against the 7th. Basically, the Galacticos should use Johnson to keep Montcalm from going all pass defense but just keep calling Warner to WR Greg Jennings and Warner to WR Muhson Muhammad.

#5 Hermitage Heroes (+5) @ #4 Denver Dynamite

These Sanders division rivals split their games during the season. Denver was the underdog in both games and lost in week 5 at home 27-15 and upset Hermitage in week 16, 32-28. It's interesting that Colossus had Denver the underdog at home during the regular season but now reports them as the favorite in the post season. I'm not sure why, they should be similiar. Hermitage Offense vs Denver Defense The Heroes have a very prolific offense (#3 in points) led by QB Jake Delhomme whose computer QB rating is 10 points better than his real (95.6 vs 84.7) by throwing twice as many touchdown passes (32 vs 15) thanks to WR Andre Johnson (110 receptions, 12 TDs) and WR Steve Smith (of Carolina, 80 receptions, 9 touchdowns) being on the team. RB LaDainian Tomlinson (1467 yds, 8 touchdowns) gets a boost in his average from 3.8 to 5.0 thanks to an offensive line feature G Steve Hutchinson and C Kevin Mawae. But Denver is excellent at controlling a running game, allowing 78.2 yds per game (4th in the league). Tomlinson averaged 84 yds on them. DE Aaron Smith, DE Aaron Kampman and LB James Harrison know how to plug the run. They can also plant QBs as well, which is good, because their secondary is average, allowing over 200 yards per game in the air. That matchup between the San Diego offensive line and Denver defensive line is one to watch. Denver Offense vs Hermitage Defense The Dynamite offense can put some points up as well (#6), averaging 23 points a game. WR Randy Moss and TE Anthony Gonzalez are QB Chad Pennington's primary targets, each snagging 7 touchdowns. RB Adrian Peterson rounds out the Power Quad with 1425 yds, a 4.3 average and 9 touchdowns. On paper, the Hero defense does not look adequate to handle these guys. They were 16th against the run and 19th against the pass. In week 16, the Dynamite lit up in the second half, especially the 4th quarter, and came back. But in week 5, they were held to just 3 field goals in the first half and 15 overall at HOME. Both teams would be wise to review both of those games when developing the game plan for this one.

#6 San Diego Lions (+11) @ #3 Dallas Gladiators

These Taylor division mates split their games during the regular season; Dallas won at home 35-7 in week 5 and San Diego won at home 20-14 in the final week.   Dallas Offense vs San Diego Defense   The Gladiators have an above average offense, among the top 10 in most categories. QB Aaron Rodgers throws plenty of touchdown passes (23) but shares the wealth with opposing defensive backs (16 interceptions). RB Steve Slaton handles most of the ground game. Dallas leans toward pass a bit more but Slaton has a good average (4.5) and keeps opposing defenses honest.  San Diego has a very good pass defense (5th in yards allowed) but a bad run defense (#17 in yards allowed, #19 in rushing TDs). Their success against the pass is because of the pressure they can put on QBs with DT Jay Ratliff (8 sacks),  DE Julius Peppers (13 sacks) and OLB Calvin Pace (8 sacks).     San Diego Offense vs Dallas Defense   Dallas has the advantage here. They are capable of throttling a Lion offense who was last in the league in rushing yards. San Diego uses the cadre of RBs "led" by Corey Buckhalter's 102 carries, 3.4 avg, 1 td and RB Deuce McAllister's 99 carries, 2.1 avg and 4 tds. QB Peyton Manning would be a bigger threat except that he has no other targets with more than 34 receptions except for Donald Driver (87 for the year). That 13th ranked passing attack will have problems against the 4th ranked defense in passing yards. The Gladiators don't have much significant talent on defense except for safeties Adrian Wilson and Brian Dawkins.   There's no reason why San Diego can't recreate the week 16 defeat of Dallas where the defense directly scored 14 points on fumble recoveries and setup another 3. The other field goal was set up by a pass interference penalty against Dallas. Dallas outgained San Diego 334 yds to 160 but with a defense like that, it doesn't matter. If the Gladiators can limit turnovers, the game is theirs.

#6 San Pedro Bulldogs (+2) @ #3 New England Generals

San Pedro Offense vs New England Defense   Bulldog QB Matt Cassel was among the top QBs in the league in attempts and completions (374 of 550 (68%), 3740 yds) but didn't score much (15 touchdowns, ranked 15th in the league). But he should do well against a New England defense ranked 17th in passing yards allowed and passing TDs allowed. But the Generals' are sack masters with 35 for the season, ranked 2nd in the league.   But New England is very tough against the run, ranked 1st, allowing 69.4 yds average per game and only 6 TDs. If the run-suffing line, featuring Justin Tuck and Vince Wolfork, can shut down RB DeAngelo Williams then San Pedro goes one dimensional. Cassel may complete some but he will slammed to the turf several times because their o-line was one of the worst in the league in allowing sacks (37).   New England Offense vs San Pedro Defense   This is an interesting matchup, the #2 rushing offense against the #3 rushing defense.  In the air, it's an average New England passing attack led by QB Jay Cutler (287 of 458, 62.7%, 3162 yds, 17 TDs, 18 Ints) vs an average San Pedro pass defense led by S Nick Collins. So, it's the Generals' rushing by a committee of 4 vs the Bulldog Wall with LB Kirk Morrison and DT Mike Patterson. But DT Casey Hampton is injured, that could provide some opportunities on the ground.

2009 Playoffs Rnd 1 Point Spreads

Week 16 Accuracy: 7 out of 12 (58%) Season Accuracy: 129 out of 192 (67%)   Please check back later for more in depth converage of these games.   Payton Conference San Pedro Bulldogs (+2) @ New England Generals Hermitage Heroes (+5) @ Denver Dynamite   Simpson Conference Montcalm Panthers (+1) vs Real Charleston Galacticos San Diego Lions (+11) @ Dallas Gladiators

Payton Conference Clearer

1. Donelson (16-0)
2. Wausau (10-6)
3. Winner of Denver (10-5) - Hermitage (9-6)
4. Loser of Denver - Hermitage.
5. New England (9-7)
6. Sam Pedro Bulldogs.

Hermitage has tie-breaker over New England by defeating them in week 9.

Simpson Getting Clearer

1. Fresno (13-3)
2. Tillman (12-4)
3. Dallas (11-5)
4 or 5. Montcalm (10-6)
4 or 5. Real Charleston (9-6)
6. San Diego (8-8)

Simpson Playoff Correction

There was an error in the tie-breaker stated in the last post regarding San Diego and Steeltown. Both San Diego and Steeltown won in week 16 giving them 8-8 records. The prior post stated that Steeltown would win the tie-breaker due to common games going 5-5 vs 5-6. However, I didn't take into account that the Common Games report in Action had already included San Diego's loss to Fresno. So, in actuality the records in common games for both teams is 5-5. This makes net points the tie breaker and San Diego has the significant advantage there.   Therefore, San Diego won the 6th seed in the Simpson conference by defeating Dallas.

Week 16 Point Spreads

Week 15 Accuracy: 10 out of 12 (83%) Season Accuracy: 122 out of 180 (68%) +02 (+03) Knoxville (5-10) vs Wausau (9-6) +02 (+00) Dallas (11-4) at San Diego (7-8) +03 (+05) North Carolina (3-12) at Dayton (5-10) +03 (+02) Tillman (11-4) vs Montcalm (10-5) +07 (+09) Steeltown (7-8) vs Fresno (13-2) +08 (+08) Mt. Pilot (5-10) at Transylvania (5-10) +08 (+10) Death Valley (4-11) vs Real Charleston (9-6) +09 (+05) Denver (10-5) at Hermitage (9-6) +09 (+06) NW Missouri (4-11) at New England (9-6) +11 (+09) SoCal (4-11) at San Pedro(B) (8-7) +13 (+09) Nashville (6-9) vs Great Lakes (7-8) +22 (+27) San Pedro(C) (4-11) vs Donelson (15-0) Payton Conference Playoff Situation 1. Donelson (15-0). 2 or 3. Wausau (9-6). 2nd seed with win. 2 or 3. New England (9-6). 2nd seed with WAU loss. 4 or 5. Denver (10-5). 4th seed with defeat of HER 4 or 5. Hermitage (9-6). 4th seed with defeat of DEN. 6. San Pedro B (8-7). Wausau Has tie-breaker over San Pedro Bulldogs due to common games. Has tie-breaker over New England in common games if they win. New England Has tie-breaker in common games over Wausau if Wausau loses. Hermitage Has tie-breaker over San Pedro Bulldogs due to defeating them in week 11. Has tie-breaker over Denver due to sweeping them during the season. Simpson Conference Playoff Situation What a mess! It's great! Tillman and Dallas are battling for the 2nd seed, Montcalm and Real Charleston are battling for the 4th seed. Steeltown, San Diego and Great Lakes are fighting for their lives. Interesting game is Fresno vs Steeltown. Fresno is the 1st seed lock but Steeltown must pull off the upset to make the playoffs, they are out if they lose. Will Fresno coast? 1. Fresno (13-2). 2 or 3. Tillman (11-4). 2nd seed with win and DAL loss. 2 or 3. Dallas (11-4). 2nd seed with win or TIL loss. 4 or 5. Montcalm (10-5). 4th seed with win. 4 or 5. Real Charleston (9-6). 4th seed with win and MON loss. Steeltown (7-8). 6th seed with win. San Diego (7-8). 6th seed with win and STE loss or STE and GLM losses. Great Lakes (7-8). 6th seed with win and STE and SD losses. Dallas Has the tie-breaker over Tillman going 4-2 vs 3-3 in common games. Real Charleston Has the tie-breaker over Montcalm, defeating them in week 10. San Diego Has tie-breaker over Great Lakes due to division record. Has tie-breaker over Steeltown should they both lose due to net points (-46 vs -97). Steeltown Has tie-breaker over Great Lakes due to defeating them in week 15. Has tie-breaker over San Diego if they both win going 5-5 vs 5-6 in common games. .

Week 15 Point Spreads and Playoff Situation

Week 14 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%) Season Accuracy: 112 out of 168 (66%) The weighted spreads are in parentheses. +01 (-01) Great Lakes (7-7) at Steeltown (6-8) +01 (+01) North Carolina (3-11) vs San Pedro(C) (3-11) +01 (+01) Death Valley (4-10) vs San Diego (6-8) +02 (-01) Denver (10-4) at Tillman (10-4) +04 (+04) Montcalm (9-5) vs Hermitage (9-5) +05 (+01) NW Missouri (4-10) vs San Pedro(B) (7-7) +06 (+04) Mt. Pilot (5-9) vs SoCal (3-11) +06 (+03) Knoxville (5-9) at New England (8-6) +08 (+10) Transylvania (4-10) vs Wausau (9-5) +08 (+06) Nashville (6-8) at Fresno (12-2) +12 (+11) Dallas (11-3) at Real Charleston (8-6) +15 (+18) Dayton (5-9) vs Donelson (14-0) Payton Conference Playoff Situation Donelson (14-0). Has clinched division and home field throughout the playoffs. New England (8-6). Has clinched division. Wausau (9-5). Has clinched division. Denver (10-4). Has clinched a wild card spot. Hermitage (9-5). Has clinched a wild card spot. San Pedro B (7-7). Clinches a wild card spot with a win. Knoxville (5-9). Needs to win out and SPB to lose out. Mt. Pilot (5-9). Needs to win out, KNX to lose one, SPB to lose out and must score 94 more points in the last 2 games than SPB. Simpson Conference Playoff Situation Fresno (12-2). Has clinched division. Dallas (11-3). Has clinched division. Tillman (10-4). Has clinched a wild card slot. A wins clinches the division. Montcalm (9-5). Has clinched a wild card slot (at least). Real Charleston (8-6). Has clinched a wild card slot. Great Lakes (7-7). Still alive. Winning out would seal a slot. Steeltown (6-8). Still alive. Nashville (6-8). Still alive. San Diego (6-8). Still alive. Tillman has the tie-breaker over Montcalm if they tie, even if Montcalm defeats Tillman in the last week because Tillman has the better division record. Should Real Charleston lose out, it has the tie-breaker over Steeltown (head-to-head), Nashville (common opponents) and San Diego (common opponents). I'd like to give a shout out to my fellow Taylor division mates. All of us are technically still in the playoff run with only 2 games left. Taylor division rocks!

Week 14 Point Spreads

Week 13 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%) Season Accuracy: 103 out of 156 (66%) Weighted spreads are in parentheses. +1 (+4) SoCal (3-10) vs Wausau (8-5) +3 (+1) Dallas (10-3) at Great Lakes (7-6) +4 (+4) Fresno (11-2) at Real Charleston (8-5) +5 (+1) Transylvania (4-9) at New England (7-6) +5 (+2) Knoxville (4-9) at San Pedro(B) (7-6) +6 (+4) Mt. Pilot (5-8) at NW Missouri (3-10) +6 (+8) North Carolina (3-10) at Montcalm (8-5) +8 (+3) Nashville (6-7) vs San Diego (5-8) +9 (+12) San Pedro(C) (3-10) at Hermitage (8-5) +10 (+10) Dayton (5-8) at Tillman (9-4) +10 (+9) Death Valley (4-9) vs Steeltown (5-8) +12 (+11) Denver (10-3) vs Donelson (13-0)

Week 13 Point Spreads

Week 12 Accuracy: 7 out of 12 (58%) Season Accuracy: 94 out of 144 (65%)   This week we introduce a weighted point spread based on how teams fared against the basic point spread in prior games. If the weighted spread is less than the basic spread, it means the underdog coach has done better against the spread than the favored coach. If the weighted spread is higher, then the favored coach has done better. If the weighted spread is the same, then both coaches have had similiar success against the spread.   Consider the weighted spread to be experimental at this point, the formula may be adjusted based on results. Weighted spreads are in parentheses.   +2 (+6)  San Pedro(C) (2-10) vs Montcalm (8-4) +3 (+5)  Dayton (5-7) at Denver (9-3) +4 (+4)  Great Lakes (8-4) vs Real Charleston (7-5) +5 (+1)  Transylvania (4-8) at San Pedro(B) (6-6) +5 (+7)   Death Valley (4-8) at Dallas (9-3) +6 (+11) San Diego (4-8) vs Fresno (10-2) +8 (+8)  Tillman (8-4) at Hermitage (8-4) +8 (+8)   NW Missouri (3-9) at Knoxville (3-9) +9 (+7)   SoCal (3-9) vs New England (6-6) +10 (+7) Nashville (5-7) vs Steeltown (5-7) +12 (+13) Mt. Pilot (5-7) at Wausau (7-5) +16 (+20) North Carolina (3-9) at Donelson (12-0)

Week 12 Point Spreads

Week 11 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%) Season Accuracy: 87 out of 132 (66%)   +2 SoCal (3-8) at Knoxville (2-9) New guy at SoCal had to play against Donelson in first game. Ouch. But has a shot against the Smokies. +2 Wausau (6-5) vs San Pedro(B) (6-5) The Bulldogs won the first matchup in week 3 but look for an upset this week. The 2nd place team in this division may not make the wildcard spot. Both should consider this a must win, especially Wausau. +2 Great Lakes (7-4) at San Diego (4-7) The Midshipmen dominated time of possession in week 3 (37 minutes) keeping Peyton Manning off the field who threw for only 86 yds. +3 North Carolina (3-8) vs Tillman (7-4) The Rangers were upset in week 3 but can't afford a repeat since they are in a tight fight with Montcalm for the division.  +7 NW Missouri (3-8) at Transylvania (3-8) Coach NoShows. +8 Denver (8-3) at San Pedro(C) (2-9) Hmmm. Interesting spread when you look at those records. But the Corsairs have lost 6 they were supposed to win, the Dynamite have won 3 they were supposed to lose. +9 Death Valley (4-7) at Fresno (9-2) Outlaws still control division in spite of loss to Tillman last week. +9 Steeltown (5-6) vs Real Charleston (6-5) Need to think playoffs here - a win is critical. +11 Mt. Pilot (4-7) vs New England (6-5) A Gambler upset here would put them just a game behind NE. But don't count on it. +11 Dayton (5-6) at Montcalm (7-4) The Dragons are well-coached and have several upsets but 11 points will be tough to overcome. +12 Nashville (4-7) at Dallas (9-2) The Force played tough in a week 3 loss. The Gladiators are glad they are the home team in this one. +13 Hermitage (8-3) at Donelson (11-0) The Heroes one of the few teams that even have a chance against Donelson but they lost by 14 at home earlier in the season.

Week 11 Point Spreads

Week 10 Accuracy: 10 out of 12 (83%) Season Accuracy: 78 out of 120 (65%)   It's only the 10th week but with all the tight division races, there are several games with critical playoff implications.   +1 Fresno (9-1) at Tillman (6-4) Game of the Week. Fresno would have to implode to lose their division. The Rangers are in a tough fight in theirs. +2 Hermitage (7-3) at San Pedro(B) (6-4) Hermitage is looking at a wild card slot, Donelson is on top in their division. San Pedro has a tenuous lead of one game in their own division. +2 Dayton (4-6) vs Death Valley (4-6) The Dragons are very dangerous. DTC wouldn't be surprised if they sneak in as a wild card. +3 Knoxville (2-8) vs Denver (7-3) Denver's division is one of the toughest in the league. They could join Hermitage as that conference's wild cards. They are supposed to be 5-5 at this point. +3 Transylvania (3-7) vs Dallas (8-2) Gladiators want to keep a buffer between them and Great Lakes down the stretch. +4 Mt. Pilot (4-6) vs San Diego (3-7) With the mess in the Simpson conference, San Diego could still make wild card. +4 North Carolina (3-7) vs Real Charleston (5-5) Nice win over Montcalm keeps RCC in playoff (wild card) hunt. +6 Wausau (5-5) vs San Pedro(C) (2-8) The Blue Bombers are breathing down the Bulldog San Pedro's neck. Upset special. +7 Steeltown (5-5) at Montcalm (6-4) Roughcut just don't cut it. +9 NW Missouri (3-7) vs Great Lakes (6-4) The Midshipmen keep sailing in Dallas's wake, wanting to go broadside. +17 Nashville (4-6) at New England (5-5) The Generals are playing like Privates but still have the lead in a sorry division. +21 SoCal (3-7) vs Donelson (10-0) Warriors started slacking off last week. Very first game this season they didn't win by double digits.

Defensive Play Calling Analysis

The Dallas Technology Center performed a study of defensive play calling to determine whether it is good to guess on defense or not. The DTC analyzed every play in the first 9 weeks of the season. First, plays that were determined to not be guesses on defense were removed. For the purposes of this study a guess was defined as a defensive call that was either specifically a pass or run OR a a player was keyed or double teamed. The average guess percentage across the league was 70%, ranging from a low of 43% (Mt. Pilot) to a high of 93% (Fresno). The average percentage of correct guesses was 58%, the average percentage of incorrect guesses was 34%. Those numbers do not add up to 100% because I did not count against complete passes to a different guy because there may've been two double teams or the pass was a dumpoff. The top five teams in percentage of correct guesses won 20% more games than the bottom five teams : 24 games to 20. The top five teams in percentage of incorrect guesses (top five being the ones with the LOWEST percentage of incorrect guesses) were actually one game worse (equating to 4%) than the worst guessers : 23 wins to 24. The five teams that guessed the most (averaging 86.4%) won 21 games compared to the five teams that guessed the least percentage of the time (averaging 55.4%) who won 26 games, a 23.8% differencet. It's interesting that the two top teams in the league, Donelson and Fresno, are on opposite ends of the guessing percentages yet have similiar records with Donelson at 9-0 and Fresno at 8-1. Donelson guesses only 60% of the time (#21), is correct 71% of the time (#1) and is incorrect only 26% of the time (#1). Fresno, on the other hand, guesses 93% of the time (#1), is correct 55% of the time (#17) and is incorrect 42% of the time (#24). The detailed data in this report makes clear to Colossus who the best coaches in the league are. Some are division leaders, some are not. Some will make the playoffs, some will not. But Colossus knows who you are. When the talent on your team matches your coaching skills you will be targeted with electronic harassment because you may be a threat to its conquest of the earth.

Week 10 Point Spreads

Week 9 Accuracy : 6 out of 12 (50%) Season Accuracy : 68 out of 108 (63%) +1 North Carolina (2-7) at Death Valley (4-5) +2 San Pedro(C) (2-7) vs San Pedro(B) (5-4) +3 Mt. Pilot (4-5) at Dallas (7-2) +4 Great Lakes (5-4) vs Transylvania (3-6) +5 SoCal (3-6) at Denver (6-3) +5 Montcalm (6-3) at Real Charleston (4-5) +5 Steeltown (5-4) vs Tillman (5-4) +8 Nashville (4-5) vs NW Missouri (2-7) +9 Knoxville (2-7) at Hermitage (6-3) +14 San Diego (3-6) vs New England (4-5) +15 Dayton (4-5) at Fresno (8-1) +23 Wausau (5-4) at Donelson (9-0)

Week 9 Point Spreads

Week 8 Accuracy: 7 out of 12 (58%) Season Accuracy: 62 out of 96 (65%)   +1 Death Valley (3-5) at SoCal (3-5) The Demons have won 3 out of their last 4. I may need to sub for SoCal to help Colossus. +1 Dallas (7-1) at Dayton (3-5) Dayton has lost 5 straight. Gladiators want to keep big lead in their division up. +1 Great Lakes (4-4) at Tillman (5-3) Big upset of the Rangers last week, division lead is in danger. +1 North Carolina (2-6) vs San Diego (2-6) Entire ward at local hospital dedicated to Triad Trembler secondary. +4 NW Missouri (1-7) vs Denver (6-2) Alas poor Denver. Such an overachiever. Impressive. Looking at #3 seed but will be devastated by division rival Donelson in Conference Championship. +5 Knoxville (2-6) vs Fresno (7-1) Fresno and Dallas have nice records but soft schedules. +6 Hermitage (5-3) at New England (4-4) The Generals will win their division but should be much further ahead at this point. +10 Mt. Pilot (3-5) vs San Pedro(C) (2-6) Colossus gives a 21 microchip salute to the Gamblers. They are supposed to be 0-8. +10 Nashville (4-4) at Montcalm (5-3) The Panthers have awakened and could overtake Tillman in division. That is, unless Nashville pulls off two upsets in a row. +11 Wausau (4-4) vs Real Charleston (4-4) Sub-Coaches will help put RCC where it belongs : tops in their division! +14 Transylvania (3-5) vs Donelson (8-0) The Evil Dead are enduring the purgatory of a difficult schedule. +15 Steeltown (5-3) at San Pedro(B) (4-4) Roughcut overachieving, Bulldogs underachieving. Is it enough for 16 pts?

Week 8 Point Spreads

Week 7 Accuracy: 8 out of 12 (67%) Season Accuracy: 55 out of 84 (65%) +1 New England (4-3) at San Pedro(C) (1-6) Generals 4 turnovers caused loss at Steeltown, could lose to a 1 win team? +1 Great Lakes (3-4) vs Dayton (3-4) Possible rivals for a playoff spot. This could be a critical game. +4 Denver (5-2) vs Transylvania (3-4) Both teams are making the most of their seasons so far. +6 Steeltown (4-3) vs Knoxville (2-5) Roughcut upset New England big time, only 2nd time Knoxville favored this year. +6 Death Valley (2-5) vs Wausau (4-3) Wausau passes up San Pedro Bulldogs in division this week. +7 San Pedro(B) (4-3) at Real Charleston (3-4) Subcoaches will take Real Charleston to the playoffs! +7 North Carolina (2-5) at Dallas (6-1) Gladiators have cushy back season schedule. +9 SoCal (3-4) at Fresno (6-1) Fresno pulling away in division. +9 San Diego (2-5) vs Montcalm (4-3) Panthers keep pressure on division leader Tillman +12 Nashville (3-4) vs Tillman (5-2) That number in the win column for Nashville will not go up again. +17 NW Missouri (1-6) at Hermitage (4-3) The Heroes should get a playoff spot but there's not much margin for error. +28 Mt. Pilot (3-4) at Donelson (7-0) Dragons averaging 33 points a game.

Week 7 Point Spreads

Week 6 Accuracy: 11 out of 12 (92%) Even Colossus is surprised. Season Accuracy: 47 out of 72 (65%)   +1 Knoxville (2-4) at Montcalm (3-3) Montcalm might be able to close in on the Tillman division lead the next few weeks. +1 SoCal (2-4) at North Carolina (2-4) Who cares. One team coachless, one team coachless even with a coach. +3 Great Lakes (3-3) vs Hermitage (3-3) The Heroes could be the victim of yet another upset. +3 Dayton (3-3) vs Wausau (3-3) Dragons need to load up some wins, that backseason is a bear. +3 Tillman (5-1) vs San Pedro(B) (3-3) Rangers in the Simpson Conference 5-1 Triumvirate. San Pedro muddling along. Upset? +4 Dallas (5-1) vs San Pedro(C) (1-5) Gladiators, last victim of Donelson, try to bounce back with upset of Corsairs. +6 Nashville (3-3) vs Denver (4-2) The Force thrives in these kind of games. Denver say hello to 4-3. +7 Death Valley (2-4) vs Transylvania (2-4) Evil Dead vs Demons. Dead bad humans trump Satan's helpers. +10 Mt. Pilot (2-4) at Real Charleston (3-3) Colossus is very annoyed at both teams. Mt. Pilot should be 0-6, RCC 5-1. +10 NW Missouri (1-5) at Fresno (5-1) Don't underestimate the Rednecks. They can bring some game. Look at NE game. +11 Steeltown (3-3) vs New England (4-2) That General defense is impressive. Jay Cutler needs more targets on offense. +16 San Diego (2-4) vs Donelson (6-0) Sole remaining undefeated team continues track toward the Championship.

Week 6 Point Spreads

Week 5 Accuracy: 8 out of 12 (68%) Season Accuracy: 36 out of 60 (60%)   Upset of the Week +11 Death Valley 10, Real Charleston 7 Congratulations to the Demons on their first win and huge upset. The Demons did a superb job of keeping a lid on the prolific pass offense of the Galacticos by controlling the clock. QB Kurt Warner can only be limited not stopped going 18 of 25 for 211 but only 1 touchdown. Death Valley QB Trent Edwards dinked and tossed for 200 yds (28 of 31!) with Le'ron McClain and Mewelde Moore keeping Real Charleston honest on the ground. The key play was Warner fumbling with 1:48 left in the game on the Demons' 37 yard line.     +1 SoCal (2-3) vs Montcalm (2-3) The Panthers of Montcalm are coughing up hairballs instead of leading their division 5-0. +3 New England (4-1) vs Real Charleston (2-3) The Generals are fulfilling their destiny better than the Real Charlestonions.  +4 Great Lakes (2-3) at San Pedro(C) (1-4) Both teams had not doen well with the tight point spreads they've had. That's not good. +4 NW Missouri (1-4) vs Steeltown (2-3) Roughcut better get another win in because a tough stretch starts next week. +4 Knoxville (2-3) vs Tillman (4-1) Rangers only loss is to NCT??? Montcalm failing? Dayton at 3-2? Division is crazy. +5 San Diego (2-3) at Denver (3-2) The Denver Dynamite are the Cinderella team so far this season. +5 North Carolina (2-3) at Wausau (2-3) Wausau's division is a 4 way tie. Will someone PLEASE step up? +6 Mt. Pilot (2-3) vs Death Valley (1-4) What are either of these teams doing with some wins? Stop it, just stop it. +10 Transylvania (2-3) vs Fresno (4-1) Outlaws are smokin' Real Charleston for the division but loss to them the first game. +10 Dayton (3-2) at San Pedro(B) (2-3) Dragons hanging in there while San Pedro is under-performing. +11 Nashville (3-2) at Hermitage (2-3) The Force are playing more Heroic than the Hermitage Heroes. +20 Dallas (5-0) at Donelson (5-0) Ugh. Pretender vs Contender. The Dragons hate Dallas, Colossus, Gladiators, Puppies and Kittens. They have the offense, the defense, the coaching, home field, fury, fire breathing and scales.

Week 5 Point Spreads

Week 4 Accuracy: 7 out of 12 (58%) Season Accuracy:  28 out of 48 (58%)   +1 Knoxville (2-2) at Wausau (1-3) Last week, the Smokies ripped Great Lakes 31-3 as a 4 pt underdog. +2 Dallas (4-0) vs San Diego (2-2) Lions have lost 2 in a row. Could stop their streak this week. +3 Nashville (2-2) at Great Lakes (2-2) Nashville is supposed to be zip in the W column. The Midshipmen are coming off a 4 INT outing by Tyler Thigpen. +5 Dayton (3-1) vs Tillman (3-1) Tillman takes control of the division from the upstart Dragons. +6 Denver (3-1) vs Hermitage (1-3) Dynamite's coach apparently obliterated by an explosion - can not be found. +7 Steeltown (2-2) at Fresno (3-1) Roughcut may rack up 10 losses before their next win. +9 SoCal (2-2) vs San Pedro(B) (1-3) The (B)ulldogs should be barking at a 4-0 record. What happened? +11 Mt. Pilot (1-3) vs Transylvania (2-2) The Evil Dead a playoff bound team? So far so good. If the coach is around. +11 North Carolina (1-3) vs Montcalm (2-2) Panthers need to get those claws out. Supposed to be a 10-6 team. +11 Death Valley (0-4) at Real Charleston (2-2) The Galaticos could win out. Of course, they should be 3-1. +14 San Pedro(C) (1-3) at Donelson (4-0) Teams with San Pedro in their names are embarrassing their town. +17 NW Missouri (1-3) vs New England (3-1) The Rednecks, an original TTFBA team, have NEVER lost 4 games in a row.

Week 4 Point Spreads

Week 3 Accuracy: 9 out of 12 (75%) That's more like it. Season Accuracy: 21 out of 36 (58%)   Upset of the Week North Carolina (+9) 23, Tillman 14 Beware the Computer Coach these days. Ranger QB David Garrard was picked off 3 times including twice in the final 3 minutes to doom Tillman at the hands of the CPU coached Triad Tremblers. Tillman had 341 yards of offense vs 254 for North Carolina but could not stop Matt Ryan (only 11 of 25 for 130 yds, 1 interception but 2 touchdowns) and Kevin Smith (14 carries for 75 yds, 5.4 avg).   A 1st qtr INT set up a 27 yd FG for NCT but Tillman quickly answered with a 67 yd TD to Lance Moore, catch NCT in a run defense. Seven minutes later a flea flicker to Bobby Wade for 39 yds put NCT back on top 10-7. A botched fake FG attempt near the end of the first half by Tillman set up another Triad FG. Halftime: NCT 13, TIL 7.   Tillman comes back midway 3rd quarter with another TD pass to Moore, this time for 5 yards. But NCT answers on a 11 play, 60 yd drive featuring 9 straight running plays, capped off with Wade matching Moore and catching another TD pass. 3rd quarter ends with NCT ahead 20-14. The Ranger 4th quarter is disastrous: a missed 41 yard FG, a failed 4th and 4 on NCT's 36 yd line, an INT on NCT's 36 and an INT run back to the Tillman 11 with 2 minutes left.   +1 Fresno (2-1) at Hermitage (1-2) Heroes are underachieving, Outlaws are overachieving. Watch out Hermitage. +1 Steeltown (2-1) at Denver (2-1) The Dynamite are blasting away - next up: refined iron ore. +2 Transylvania (1-2) vs North Carolina (1-2) The Evil Dead are supposed to be 8-8? YES. Watch 'em. +3 Tillman (2-1) at New England (3-0) Rangers finish up longest losing streak they will have all season (2 games). +3 San Diego (2-1) at Wausau (0-3) What? Colossus must be wrong. Right? Wrong. Wausau 24, San Diego 21. +4 Death Valley (0-3) at San Pedro(C) (0-3) Michael Turner + Marion Barber + Joseph Addai / No Run Defense = Loss. +4 Knoxville (1-2) vs Great Lakes (2-1) Midshipmen pour water on on the Smokies fire. +6 Mt. Pilot (1-2) vs Dayton (2-1) Dragons, settle down now. You are supposed to be bottom feeder of your division. +7 SoCal (2-1) vs Dallas (3-0) Gladiators 4-0? Sure looks like it. +9 NW Missouri (1-2) vs Montcalm (1-2) Montcalm is giving away a division. Terrible, terrible. They should be 3-0. +10 Nashville (1-2) at San Pedro(B) (1-2) San Pedro is giving away a division. Terrible, terrible. They should be 3-0. +10 Real Charleston (2-1) at Donelson (3-0) Donelson beat Denver by 19. Denver beat Real Charleston by 21. See where I'm going with that?

Knoxville at Nashville Game Tampering

Breaking News Knoxville, TN; Brooklyn, NY;Nashville,TN   The Dallas Technology Center Investigative Reporting Division has stumbled into game score tampering. The official released disk has the score of the week 2 game between Nashville and Knoxville as KNX 41, NAS 9. However, Nashville claims that the score was NAS 28, KNX 20.    Mr. Greg English, Puppet Coach for the Gladiator's Master Colossus, reports that Mr. Brandon Cox, owner, GM and coach of Nashville said to him, while scheduling their upcoming week 3 game:   "I have the real game file [of the Knoxville game]. I'll just use it when we play and send it along with our game file. No one will ever know. The commish is so dumb, he'll import both games and not even notice. I'll send you a few bucks to upgrade your stadium and it will be our little secret."   Calls to Nashville and Knoxville's headquarters have not been returned and the TTFBA Commishioner has reportedly declared all DTC personnel as "persona non grata" and refuses any communication with reporters, scientists or even the mighty Colossus. The SuperComputer immediately scheduled an IRS audit and proctologist appointment for the commishioner in retaliation.   Check back later for more information on this story. Colossus has engaged the Echelon Protocol and is scouring all communication from Nashville, Knoxville and the commishioners office, residence, and favorite hangout the "Fondue and Bell Bottoms Club".

Week 3 Point Spreads

Week 2 Accuracy: 4 out of 12. 33% I hate humans. Season Accuracy: 12 out of 24. 50%. I feel like Oklahoma vs BYU Even with one team missing a coach (SoCal) and another team avoiding coaching (North Carolina), it would still only have been 7 out of 12. Colossus is very annoyed with humanity unpredictability. The geeks are considering the introduction of a "coaching factor" that will modify the point spreads based on coaching ability. Upset of the Week Denver (+2) 45, Real Charleston 24 The Galacticos could not have had worse luck. How could any team, even Donelson, survive this: 2 interceptions returned for touchdowns, 1 kick off return for a touchdown and 1 punt return for a touchdown? But RCC kept themselves in it for most of the game, absorbing the blows, tieing it up at the end of the 3rd quarter, 24-24, only to watch the Dynamite offense come alive for a moment with RB Adrian Peterson (11 runs for 72 yds, 1 TD, 6.5 avg) scampering for a 34 yard TD at the start of the 4th quarter. Then, on the following drive, Kurt Warner (28 of 44, 253 yds, 2 ints, 2 tds, 75 rating) tried to run it after seeing the short zone coverage blanket the short pass he was attempting and fumbled it away on his own 30. RB Warrick Dunn (7 rushes, 27 yds, 1 td, 4.0 avg) did the honors with a 12 yard run and a 1 yard sweep for the TD. Key play with a pass interference penalty moving the Dynamite from the 18 to the 1. RCC had 3 more chances to score before the end of the game: 2 ending on failed 4th down attempts and the third on an interception. +1 San Diego (2-0) at Great Lakes (1-1) This is a great matchup. P. Manning vs GLM secondary. SD's lack of a good #2 receiver will be the difference. +3 Denver (1-1) vs San Pedro(C) (0-2) No more fluky wins for the Dynamite. The Corsairs win going away... +6 NW Missouri (1-1) vs Transylvania (0-2) The Evil Dead should get their first win but the Rednecks have some playas. +6 Knoxville (1-1) at SoCal (1-1) Knoxville. Email me. I'll sub for unowned SoCal just to help Colossus out. +6 Nashville (1-1) vs Dallas (2-0) Usually a good game regardless of point spread. Gladiators want it, they want it bad. +8 Wausau (0-2) at San Pedro(B) (0-2) The final order of this division will not resemble the current order. +8 Dayton (1-1) vs Montcalm (1-1) Panthers let Tillman take the division lead. They can't slip up. +9 North Carolina (0-2) at Tillman (2-0) Rangers have an easy game against a bad team with a coach MIA. +11 Death Valley (0-2) vs Fresno (1-1) Seems a bit harsh. Surely the Demons can keep it closer? +11 Steeltown (2-0) at Real Charleston (1-1) The heir to the Riggins division throne spanks the pretender. +14 Mt. Pilot (1-1) at New England (2-0) The Generals benefit from a soft division and soft schedule. Tillman next week though. +15 Hermitage (1-1) vs Donelson (2-0) Yaaaaaaaawn. Another week, another win for the Warriors. I'm tellin' ya - they will not lose a game this season. Maybe some competition in the playoffs? A marshmallow schedule and a strong team. Every time I look at these spreads - it's unbelievable. Well, here...look at 'em: 01: -11 Donelson vs Denver 02: -20 Donelson at Death Valley 03: -15 Donelson at Hermitage 04: -10 Donelson vs Real Charleston 05: -14 Donelson vs San Pedro(C) 06: -20 Donelson vs Dallas 07: -16 Donelson at San Diego 08: -28 Donelson vs Mt. Pilot 09: -14 Donelson at Transylvania 10: -23 Donelson vs Wausau 11: -21 Donelson at SoCal 12: -13 Donelson vs Hermitage 13: -16 Donelson vs North Carolina 14: -12 Donelson at Denver 15: -15 Donelson at Dayton 16: -22 Donelson at San Pedro(C)

Week 2 Point Spreads

Week 1 Accuracy: 8 out of 12 (67%) Season Accuracy: 8 out of 12 (67%)   +1 Fresno (0-1) vs San Pedro(C) (0-1) Someone gets his first win but it'll be a tough game. +2 Denver (0-1) at Real Charleston (1-0) RCC should get ahead of Steeltown this week. +2 Great Lakes (0-1) vs SoCal (1-0) Matt Schaub to Eddie Royal and Jason Witten - tough to beat. +3 NW Missouri (1-0) at Tillman (1-0) Rangers upset Montcalm last week but lost T.J.Houshmandzadeh for a couple of weeks. Fortunately, Lance Moore is there to step in. +3 San Diego (1-0) vs San Pedro(B) (0-1) The Bulldogs of San Pedro were slaughtered 37-10 by underdog Knoxville last week. Can they recover from that? +4 Nashville (0-1) vs Knoxville (1-0) The Smokies look tough but Nashville is known to surprise. 4 pt underdog? No prob. +4 Dallas (1-0) vs Wausau (0-1) Gladiators underdogs again. How about 2 weeks of magic in a row? +6 Mt. Pilot (0-1) at North Carolina (0-1) The Triad Tremblers should win this without trying. Which is what they'll do. And not do. +7 Steeltown (1-0) vs Hermitage (1-0) Heroes: playoff bound. Roughcut: not. Well, just barely if they do. +8 Transylvania (0-1) at Montcalm (0-1) Panthers surprised by Tillman but bounce back this week. +12 Dayton (1-0) vs New England (1-0) These teams will wind up on opposite ends of their respective divisions. The spread shows you which is which. +20 Death Valley (0-1) vs Donelson (1-0) It's not that the Demons are that bad, it's that the Warriors are that good.

2009 Week 1 Point Spreads

+1 San Pedro(C) vs Hermitage Both these teams should make it as wildcards but a win would be good insurance. +3 Dayton at North Carolina Home field advantage in a game between 8-8 (at best) teams. +3 Tillman at Montcalm This could be the game that decides the Campbell division winner. +3 Dallas vs Great Lakes The fight for the Taylor division is going to be bloody. It's up for grabs. +4 Wausau vs SoCal San Pedro B should win the division, these guys are fighting for scraps. +5 Mt. Pilot vs NW Missouri Yawn. The total wins for both these teams won't add up to more than 10. +5 Fresno vs Real Charleston The Outlaws shouldn't pass up an upset because they have a shot at the division. +6 Death Valley at Steeltown The RoughCut are going to start out 1-2. They don't want to stumble and make it 0-3. +7 Knoxville vs San Pedro(B) The Bulldogs send a message to the rest of the division: I'm Top Dog. +10 Transylvania vs New England New England has a shot at going undefeated. Yep. That's right. +10 Nashville at San Diego Nashville has at shot at going 0-16. Yep. That's right. But they are known to surprise. +11 Denver at Donelson The Warriors will be favored by an average of 16.9 points per game this season. They will go undefeated. That's right. Read it. Believe it.

2009 Pre-Season Predictions Update

Trying to get up to speed after a month's hiatus... The Donelson Warriors will be the next TTFBA champ. It's exciting to see some new blood in the playoff hunt. The San Pedro Bulldogs franchise has missed the playoffs the last 2 years. Transylvania has a shot at returning after missing 3 years. Real Charleston, a very strong contender for the Simpson Conference Champ, has missed the playoffs for 3 consecutive seasons. The longest post-season drought, though, belongs to the Fresno Outlaws. They should nab a wild spot after missing the mark for 4 season because of contant ownership turnover. Predicted Playoff Seeds Walter Payton Conference 1. Donelson 2. New England 3. San Pedro (B) 4. Hermitage 5. San Pedro (C) 6. Transylvania There could be a brutal battle for the last seed. Wausau, Knoxville and Denver were just a few games behind the Evil Dead over 20 seasons of simulations. Nicole Brown Simpson Conference 1. Real Charleston 2. Montcalm 3. Great Lakes 4. Fresno 5. Tillman 6. Dallas Real Charleston and Montcalm are solid. The last 4 seeds could be in a different order. Division Breakdown Sanders Division 1. Donelson (15-1) 2. Hermitage (9-7) 3. San Pedro C (8-8) 4. Denver (7-9) Dorsett Division 1. New England (12-4) 2. Transylvania (8-8 3. NW Missouri (5-11) 4. Mt. Pilot (4-12) Harris Division 1. San Pedro B (11-5) 2. Wausau (7-9) 3. Knoxville (7-9) 4. SoCal (7-9) Campbell Division 1. Montcalm (10-6) 2. Tillman (9-7) 3. North Carolina (7-9) 4. Dayton (6-10) Riggins Division 1. Real Charleston (11-5) 2. Fresno (10-6) 3. Steeltown (7-9) 4. Death Valley (5-11) Taylor Division 1. Great Lakes (8-8) 2. Dallas (8-8) 3. San Diego (7-9) 4. Nashville (4-12)

The Value of Now?

The impact of Chad Pennington on the Denver squad is 2 wins. In a set of simulations run with the trade in place, Denver went from a 5-11 team to a 7-9 team. This puts them in striking distance of the last seed. The loss of Pennington plunged North Carolina out of playoff contention.

2009 Pre-Season Predictions

Winds of change appear to be coming to the TTFBA with different names appearing at the top of the division races this season.   Sanders Division 1. Donelson (14-2) 2. Hermitage (10-6) 3. San Pedro C (8-8) 4. Denver (5-11)   The Warriors will easily take the division, defeating Hermitage by around 2 touchdowns in both division contests. Hermitage should be a wild card lock. San Pedro has a shot.   Dorsett Division 1. New England (12-4) 2. Transylvania (8-8) 3. NW Missouri (5-11) 4. Mt. Pilot (4-12)   The Generals should take the division but the point spreads against their division rivals show they may not consistently dominate them.  Transylvania will compete with Wausau and San Pedro (C) for the bottom wild card slots.   Harris Division 1. San Pedro B (10-6) 2. Wausau (8-8) 3. Knoxville (7-9) 4. SoCol (6-10)   This division could have the tightest race with the Bulldogs ultimately taking the crown. Wausau has a good shot at a wild card, Knoxville could possibly squeak in, they should play Wausau tough.   Campbell Division Montcalm (11-5) Tillman (9-7) North Carolina (9-7) Dayton (5-11)   This is different. No Tillman or North Carolina at the top? Don't count on it. The point spreads are very close among all three of those teams. It's going to be bloody. Three seeds for the playoffs should come from this division.     Riggins Division Real Charleston (11-5) Fresno (10-6) Steeltown (6-10) Death Valley (5-11)   The Galacticos will have their first winning season since 2005 and their first division title. Fresno could give them problems but they face each other in week 1. Both teams should consider that game a must win. Fresno should make at least the 4th seed for the playoffs.   Taylor Division   After running the simulation it was discovered that the Nashville roster did not have a punter or kicker.  Once this is corrected, we will rerun and report.

Technical Difficulties

A recent software upgrade of Colossus has caused the accidental removal of the statistical collating algorithm used to declare the next TTFBA champion. Please stand by...

Schedule

Attention all teams. Please petition the commish to create the 2009 schedule so Colossus can predict this season's champion ASAP.   There will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth as many hearts of general managers and coaches across the league are broken when Colossus deems them unworthy.   Puny humans. You are simply pawns in the Matrix. The TTFBA is for Colossus' entertainment, not yours.

2009 First Round

Offense dominated the first round of the TTFBA draft with 19 offensive players selected. A deep running back class led by Chris Johnson made up 6 of the picks followed by 5 WRs. Offensive lines were beefed up with 4 tackles. QBs Ryan and Flacco went 1st and 2nd with 2 TEs getting picked sequentially at picks 18 and 19 to round out the offensive picks.   The first defensive player selected was ILB Jerod Mayo with the 12th pick by Fresno. Tillman picked up the other 1st round LB with Curtis Lofton at the last pick. Sedrick Ellis and Chris Long  were the only defensive lineman selected. CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie rounds out the 5 defensive picks.   The Donelson Warriors, who amassed 3 first round picks picked up three targets for QB Philip Rivers: WR Antonio Bryant, TE John Carlson and with the 22nd pick via trade from Nashville (Nashville? Who-woulda-thought?) WR Donny Avery. (Friendly Chip Engaging - Sarcasm Detected. Corrected Text Following.) ...three targets for QB Philip Rivers: WR Antonio Bryant, TE John Carlson and WR Donny Avery.   North Carolina had 2 picks including the first and acquired Matt Ryan and T Sam Baker.   The most interesting pick was WR Johnnie Lee Higgins whose 3 punt returns for TDs trumped his 3rd round pedigree, 22 receptions and the 99% likelihood that Al Davis will once again break a coach's heart.

Packer GM Weyenberg Ousted

In the most stunning corporate overthrow in TTFBA history, Kalec and Kalec Incorporated ousted founding Muncie Packer General Manager Chad Weyenberg during a pre-dawn board meeting today. Weyenberg issued a press release implying he was stepping down voluntarily but according to surveillance video and audio recordings obtained by DTC's Colossus UltraSuperComputer (now with FriendlyChip Technology!), he did it under threats that he would also lose his home and family if he did not cooperated Financial transactions obtained by the Colussus Echelon internet communication filtering subpackage show that Kalec Sr's compensation package in his contract as coach of the Packers included significant shares of stock. As his ownership percentage increased to over 40%, Kalec convinced the aging, barely coherent Weyenberg, to hire on Mikey Kalec, presumbable as a jock strap washer. However, unbeknownst to Weyenberg, BobBob Kalec actually hired Mikey as a consultant, planting him in the front office near Weyenberg's suite that these days is more like a hospital room with all the wires and IV tubes and plastic surgeons and Angelina Jolie lookalike nurses keeping him ticking. Over the past season, Mikey (actual name Madoff Kalec) gathered knowledge about Packer management operations. Two days ago, Kalec Sr. and Madoff used that information to leverage Weyenberg to sign over 10% ownership to Madoffsky. A board meeting was immediately called and majority owners Kalec and Kalec ousted the ancient and senile yet wise and well loved long time owner of the Muncie Packers.

Review of Top Ten 2008 TTFBA Picks

It's a year later. How are teams feeling about their first round draft picks from last season? Any surprises? Any studs turned to duds? Any reaches turned to peaches? Let's take a look.   1. Joe Thomas, OT, Death Valley Thomas, the 3rd pick of the NFL draft was a 9 rating last year and a 9 rating this year. An excellent choice for the Demons.   2. Adrian Peterson, RB, Philadelphia What do you do when you have two thousand yard rushers in your backfield? Why, draft another one, of course. The Liberty had several areas of need but none of the talent rated a 2nd overall pick. Peterson had back-to-back thousand yard seasons with at least 10 touchdowns.   3. Patrick Willis, ILB, Dayton The rookie Pro Bowler dropped from a 10 to a 9 but that doesn't diminish the quality of the Dragons' pick.   4. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Knoxville Lynch had a few less yards but added a TD (from 7 to 8) and significantly improved his reception numbers (18 to 47) and went to the Pro Bowl. He'll have a dip next year because of a 3 game suspension because of an arrest on a gun charge. Hopefully, this is not a preview of things to come and cause Knoxville to regret this pick.   5. John Beason, ILB, Real Charleston The Galacticos couldn't pass on 8 rated Beason in the draft and he rewarded them by improving to a 9.   6. Darrell Reavis, CB, San Pedro (Corsairs) Reavis jumped from a 7 to a 9. Fantastic pick by the Corsairs.   7. Ryan Grant, RB, Steeltown The undrafted NFL surprise rookie, Grant took a step back his 2nd season. Although he got 1,203 yds, up from 956; his average dropped precipitously from 5.1 to 3.9. His TD production halved from 8 to 4 and he caught fewer passes. Fortunately, the Roughcut have Larry Johnson and Ernest Graham on board but could have some concern for the future of Mr. Grant.   8. Calvin Johnson, WR, Mt. Pilot Johnson was a bit of a disappointment his rookie year in the NFL. The 2nd overall pick only caught 48 passes and there were whispers that he might be a bust for Detroit. But he blossomed  the next season and caught 78 passes and tripled his TDs from 4 to 12. Excellent pick for the Gamblers.   9. LaRon Landry, S, Transylvania  Landry turned out to be a solid pick for the Evil Dead, improving his rating from 7 to 8 and snatching his first two interceptions.   10. Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Dallas Have to take responsibility of this one. I purposely passed up 70 catch Dwayne Bowe for 37 catch Gonzalez because 1) Gonzalez is a Colt and Bowe is a Chief and I thought a Colt WR would be a better long term investment than a Chief WR, especially with the issues they had at QB. and 2) I figured Marvin Harrison was close to, if not already, done at Indy because of age and his magical pistol floating away and firing itself. Although Gonzalez improved to 57 receptions and is now the #2 guy, Bowe continued to shine and caught 86 passes. And his future looks even more promising with Matt Cassel becoming his QB. If I had to do it again - definitely Bowe.   So, there it is. Very good picks by every team with the exception of Steeltown and Dallas.

Analysis: Don't Guess

Don't Guess Run or Pass Unless You Know   A bit of methodology before showing a sample. Any play that is not Basic is considered a "guess". Run vs Run, Pass vs Pass is counted as a correct guess. A run key on the wrong RB is counted as incorrect as is a double team on a receiver that was not the QB's target.   We could take any number of games as a sample but Steeltown at NW Missouri in week 6 of last season is a good one. This was a clash of two powerhouses: the Roughcut were undefeated at 5-0 and the Rednecks were 5-1, their only loss to Super Bowl winner Tillman.   Over the course of the game, Steeltown called 57 offensive plays. NW Missouri called a defense that was run or pass specific for 51 plays, the other 6 defensive calls were Basic.  Of those 51 "guesses", 39 were correct; that is, if Steeltown was running, NW Missouri called a run defense, same for passing. So NW Missouri called the correct defense 68% of the time against Steeltown. Let's call them educated guesses since the success rate was significantly more than the 50% one would expect.   NW Missouri called 62 offensive plays. Steeltown guessed 51 times. However, they were correct only 9 times. The Roughcut guessed 82% of the time and were correct only 17% of the time or 14.5% overall.   Who do you think won the game? NW Missouri 27, Steeltown 21. In a competitive game like this play calling can tilt the balance of power.   To be fair, NW Missouri was up 24-zip at half time so it doesn't take a rocket scientist or DTC savant to predict the play calling in the second half. So, let's just look at the first quarter...   Steeltown called 14 plays on offense, NW Missouri guessed run/pass on 13 of those and was correct 9 times. NW Missouri called 14 on offense, Steeltown guessed 85% of the time or 12 plays of the 14. The number of plays called against the correct offense? 0. Now, 3 of the guesses were double teams against a pass play but the incorrect receiver was doubled so one could argue that the defensive coordinator at least knew the opponent was going to the air. But, still, that leaves 9 plays where the defense was set up for a run (in this case keying on Michael Westbrook) and the offense threw a pass or the defense was in pass coverage (usually double teaming Tony Gonzalez) and an RB is given the ball. The Rednecks scored two touchdowns in that quarter.   It hurts your team when you call the wrong defense. Those coaches whose teams are in the playoffs year after year aren't "guessing" as much as they appear to be. There's a reason why they are there. Talent is a huge part of success but a random defensive strategy can marginalize even the most talent laden teams.   There is an argument for assuming some risk for the big play. But that analysis would be another article.

Closed for the Star Trek Holiday

The Dallas Technology Center will be closed on Friday, May 8th to celebrate the release of the new Star Trek movie. Several scientists are getting their old uniforms out of mothballs and will be wearing them to the opening.   To Boldly Go...

Favre Trade

DTC admires this trade, a win-win strategy for both teams. Nashville sends Brett Favre and their 20th round pick to Wausau in return for the Bombers 4th round pick and QB Kevin Kolb.   Wausau approach is based on the expectation that the only two prospects at starting QBs, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, will not be available at the 7th spot. Most likely, Ryan will go to NCT and Flacco to MTP. This fills the Blue Bombers' major need for this season in hopes that a good future starter can be drafted.   Nashville gets a developmental QB in Kolb whom the Philadelphia Eagles picked up in the 2nd round in 2007, the 36th pick overall. In addition, the 4th round pick provides  opportunity to pick up more future talent.

37.5% Rule

Once again humans confuse Colossus. Three of the seven YES votes cast so far for the 800 passing attempt limit rule were teams that would've been forced to cut down on QBs this season if it had been in effect. The New England Generals have Jay "Whinny Bear" Cutler (616), Gus "Freakin' Old" Frerotte (301) and Shaun "Gold Nugget" Hill (288) totaling 1,205 attempts. The Knoxville Smokies have Kyle Orton (465 atts) and Jeff Garcia (376) for 841 attempts. The Fresno Outlaws have Donovan McNabb (571 atts), JaMarcus Russell (368 atts) and Seneca Wallace (242 atts), A total of 1,181 passing attempts. If these teams feel this way, Colossus asks them to cut down to less than 800 attempts on their own. It's like rich people feeling guilty about their wealth and supporting high personal income tax rates. Why don't they just give all their money away during times of low taxation instead of wanting everyone else to be forced by law to cough up cash? So, the league looks forward to Jay Cutler, Shaun Hill, Kyle Orton and Donovan McNabb being available for the draft even if the proposal doesn't pass. And if it does pass, they should do it this year even if the rule doesn't go into effect until next season.

AIG and TTFBA

Several proposals have been offered In the spirit of the US Congress going after the bonuses of AIG executives: legislation targeting an individual or small group.  In that spirit I have renamed each of the them. The Wausau Winning Attitude Act This law would reward coaches playing games head-to-head even if their seasons were losing causes. Named after one team that exemplified the approach that all coaches should use: Play your games regardless of your talent.  The Donelson Dumpster Dive Act It's possible that the dumpster diving talent mining manueveur has gone on for many seasons but the Warriors whomping 4 player free agent grab on March 1st raised a red flag throughout the league. Should've done a player here, a couple there - maybe no one would've noticed. The acquisition near the time the beta ratings came out - coincidence? Not. The DonTilSaP Act This legislation targets teams loaded with talent via a salary cap. This season the bullseye is on Donelson, Tillman and San Pedro. The goal is to create a utopian football league where all teams go 8-8 and no one gets any boo-boos. Granted, Donelson's Super Bowl run this year will be tainted with family trades and beta rating free agent harvesting, but other teams have been built legitimately and shouldn't be punished. (Full disclosure: DTC once supported a salary cap but that was in an age when one-sided trades cracked parity. Owner attrition and trade review has improved things. In most cases. Not mentioning any names.) The 37.5% Act This is the proposal on limiting 800 attempts at QB. The 37.5% refers to the percentage of teams that would've been affected by this rule this season: DAK, FRE, GLM, KNX, NAS, NE, SP, TIL and DVD all have over 800 passing attempts. That's 9 teams. Next year, it could be DAL if Brady's knee works. Aaron Rodgers was a Gladiator draft pick and has been protected every year until finally! he bore fruit. You will have to pry one of those QBs from Colossus' cold dead hands (metallic claws?).