Analysis: Don't Guess

Don't Guess Run or Pass Unless You Know   A bit of methodology before showing a sample. Any play that is not Basic is considered a "guess". Run vs Run, Pass vs Pass is counted as a correct guess. A run key on the wrong RB is counted as incorrect as is a double team on a receiver that was not the QB's target.   We could take any number of games as a sample but Steeltown at NW Missouri in week 6 of last season is a good one. This was a clash of two powerhouses: the Roughcut were undefeated at 5-0 and the Rednecks were 5-1, their only loss to Super Bowl winner Tillman.   Over the course of the game, Steeltown called 57 offensive plays. NW Missouri called a defense that was run or pass specific for 51 plays, the other 6 defensive calls were Basic.  Of those 51 "guesses", 39 were correct; that is, if Steeltown was running, NW Missouri called a run defense, same for passing. So NW Missouri called the correct defense 68% of the time against Steeltown. Let's call them educated guesses since the success rate was significantly more than the 50% one would expect.   NW Missouri called 62 offensive plays. Steeltown guessed 51 times. However, they were correct only 9 times. The Roughcut guessed 82% of the time and were correct only 17% of the time or 14.5% overall.   Who do you think won the game? NW Missouri 27, Steeltown 21. In a competitive game like this play calling can tilt the balance of power.   To be fair, NW Missouri was up 24-zip at half time so it doesn't take a rocket scientist or DTC savant to predict the play calling in the second half. So, let's just look at the first quarter...   Steeltown called 14 plays on offense, NW Missouri guessed run/pass on 13 of those and was correct 9 times. NW Missouri called 14 on offense, Steeltown guessed 85% of the time or 12 plays of the 14. The number of plays called against the correct offense? 0. Now, 3 of the guesses were double teams against a pass play but the incorrect receiver was doubled so one could argue that the defensive coordinator at least knew the opponent was going to the air. But, still, that leaves 9 plays where the defense was set up for a run (in this case keying on Michael Westbrook) and the offense threw a pass or the defense was in pass coverage (usually double teaming Tony Gonzalez) and an RB is given the ball. The Rednecks scored two touchdowns in that quarter.   It hurts your team when you call the wrong defense. Those coaches whose teams are in the playoffs year after year aren't "guessing" as much as they appear to be. There's a reason why they are there. Talent is a huge part of success but a random defensive strategy can marginalize even the most talent laden teams.   There is an argument for assuming some risk for the big play. But that analysis would be another article.