USAFL 2011 Grades

Here's the scorecard for the USAFL teams comparing the actual season results against the pre-season simulation numbers. The first two columns are rankings based on win-loss records. The Off Act/Sim and Def Act/Sim columns are the actual and simulation rankings for offense and defense based on points scored and points scored against. The number in parentheses is the difference. A negative number shows less than expected, a positive number shows better than expected.

Super Bowl: Oakland Raiders vs New York Giants

The long 2011 season is finally coming to a close and two teams are left standing to face off. It's Giants vs Raiders. On August 15, 2011, an entry entitled "Raider Nation Reigns" was entered into this blog. I expected Oakland to emerge from the top teams in the AFC including San Diego, Carolina and Denver. The NFC was more muddled and I avoided any bold predictions for that champion. Pittsburgh and Detroit, closely followed by Washington, emerged as the favorites. Eventual division champs Green Bay and New York were both predicted to go 9-7 but went 11-5 and 13-3 respectively.

The Giants were the #1 seed on the NFC side and took out Washington 28-6 and Green Bay 31-24 on their way to the Big Show. The Raiders crushed Atlanta 34-16 and Denver 47-13 in the playoffs.

New York Giants (15-3) +6 vs Oakland Raiders (14-4)

The Dallas Technology Center ran 40 simulated games between the Giants and Raiders and spit out NYG +6. Honestly, I was surprised it was that low. It does give me hope although the Raiders defeated their playoff opponents by an average of 24.5 points compared to the DTC prediction of 10 points. Here are the matchups:

NYG Offense vs OAK Defense

Although the Giant offense is only 10th in passing yards and 12th in rushing yards, they have had success scoring, averaging 25.4 points per game (ranked 4th in the league). QB Josh Freeman (3,034 yds, 28 tds, 5 int, 16 sacks, 63.3% completion, 101.1 rating) runs the offense, throwing primarily to WR Hakeem Nicks (81 catches, 15 tds) with Mario Manningham (62 catches, 8 tds) and Percy Harvin (64 catches, 4 tds) sharing the #2 WR role. Felix Jones is Da Man at RB (958 yds, 4.3avg, 5 tds).

The matchup with the Raider defense is interesting. They are 5th in points allowed, averaging 17 a game. The secondary, led by CB Nnamdi Asomugha and S Ed Reed, are very effective at suppressing the air games of opponents, ranking in the top 7 of most pass defense categories. Opponents pass against them quite a bit but they don't get very far - 10.2 yds per completion. That's 2nd in the league. They sack (29), they pick (14), they defense (58.4 completion %). If there is a vulnerability, it is on the ground where they are...average. However, an opponent is usually forced to abandon ground games because the Raider offense keeps the heat on which lets me segue into...

OAK Offense vs NYG Defense

Ugh. This is where I'm gonna get queasy. Let me just rattle a few names off, maybe you've heard of 'em: Tom Brady, Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, and Darren McFadden. These Raiders put more catches on the field in basic formation than most teams can put in 3-,4-,5-WR formations. The Giants give up a lot of yards in the air (211 per game, ranked 16th) although they also know how to intercept (19) and sack (32). Sackmaster LB Cameron Wake led the league 17. They are decent against the run but McFadden has a 5.8 average (not to mention 914 yds and 6 tds), boosted no doubt by defense focusing on Brady (3,685 yds, 30 tds, 11 int, 14 sacks, 65.4% completion, 98.6 rating).