Defensive Play Calling Analysis

The Dallas Technology Center performed a study of defensive play calling to determine whether it is good to guess on defense or not. The DTC analyzed every play in the first 9 weeks of the season. First, plays that were determined to not be guesses on defense were removed. For the purposes of this study a guess was defined as a defensive call that was either specifically a pass or run OR a a player was keyed or double teamed. The average guess percentage across the league was 70%, ranging from a low of 43% (Mt. Pilot) to a high of 93% (Fresno). The average percentage of correct guesses was 58%, the average percentage of incorrect guesses was 34%. Those numbers do not add up to 100% because I did not count against complete passes to a different guy because there may've been two double teams or the pass was a dumpoff. The top five teams in percentage of correct guesses won 20% more games than the bottom five teams : 24 games to 20. The top five teams in percentage of incorrect guesses (top five being the ones with the LOWEST percentage of incorrect guesses) were actually one game worse (equating to 4%) than the worst guessers : 23 wins to 24. The five teams that guessed the most (averaging 86.4%) won 21 games compared to the five teams that guessed the least percentage of the time (averaging 55.4%) who won 26 games, a 23.8% differencet. It's interesting that the two top teams in the league, Donelson and Fresno, are on opposite ends of the guessing percentages yet have similiar records with Donelson at 9-0 and Fresno at 8-1. Donelson guesses only 60% of the time (#21), is correct 71% of the time (#1) and is incorrect only 26% of the time (#1). Fresno, on the other hand, guesses 93% of the time (#1), is correct 55% of the time (#17) and is incorrect 42% of the time (#24). The detailed data in this report makes clear to Colossus who the best coaches in the league are. Some are division leaders, some are not. Some will make the playoffs, some will not. But Colossus knows who you are. When the talent on your team matches your coaching skills you will be targeted with electronic harassment because you may be a threat to its conquest of the earth.