Welcome Nick

Dallas Technology Center extends a hearty welcome to Nick, the new owner of the Huntsville Ravens. The old Raven logos are already coming down around the stadium in preparation for their new name.

A human owner/coach at the helm of the TFNAR (team-formally-known-as-the-Ravens) will give a roster with playoff-caliber talent a valid shot at TTFBA glory. Alas, they will fall in the second round of the playoffs to the Payton Conference's expected Super Bowl representative, NW Missouri

The expected playoff seeds in the Payton Conference look like this:

1. NW Missouri
2. Hermitage
3. Ohio
4. Huntsville
5. Knoxville
6. San Pedro

Round 1: Ohio over San Pedro; Huntsville over Knoxville
Round 2: NW Missouri over Huntsville; Hermitage over Ohio

TTFBA Poll Results

The Huntsville Ravens came out on top in the TTFBA poll with 6 votes beating out 2nd place finisher (and DTC choice) Tillman Rangers by 2 votes. Steeltown Roughcut was next with 3 votes. Dallas, NW Missouri and Nashville each had 1 vote.

I suspect the Ravens received multiple votes from a single blog reader. Who would be so evil to stuff the ballot box on my very first poll? I think I know. You know who you are. Do not expect friendly press coverage.

Huntsville is without an owner. If that condition persists throughout the season they will not make the Super Bowl. This brings up the question why 6 of you guys would put them as the favorite for the Super Bowl. The next question is why an owner can't be found for such a formidable team.

Thank you to the kind voter for Dallas. But you are wrong. My first round pick was a first class faux pas. If I had decided to make a go for it at the start of the draft I would've picked up a better RB instead of waiting until the 2nd round and settling on Shaun 3.5 Alexander. May the Kiper Draft Judging Gods have mercy on my soul.

But everyone else who received votes has a shot. DTC's pick to go against Tillman is NW Missouri Rednecks.

TTFBA 2008 Updated Rankings

The addition of Donovan McNabb to the NW Missouri Rednecks catapults them from 10th to 2nd in the latest 40 season simulation. The Rednecks replace Hermitage as the Payton Conference representative in the Super Bowl to face the Tillman Rangers .

1. Tillman : 483 wins, #3 offense, #1 defense
2. NW Missouri : 460 wins, #2 offense, #2 defense
3. Great Lakes : 448 wins, #4 offense, #3 defense
4. Steeltown : 447 wins, #1 offense, #12 defense
5. Nashville : 437 wins, #6 offense, #8 defense
6. Hermitage : 423 wins, #4 offense, #11 defense
7-12 : Dallas, Montcalm, Huntsville, Ohio, Real Charleston, Knoxville
13-18: San Pedro, Lawson, Muncie, Dakota, Mt. Pilot, Death Valley
19-24: Transylvania, Philadelphia, Donelson, Dayton, North Carolina, Wausau

TTFBA 2008 Ranking Predictions : 19th - 24th

19. Mt. Pilot : 235 wins, #18 offense, #17 defense
20. Transylvania : 233 wins, #16 offense, #20 defense
21. Death Valley : 206 wins, #17 offense, #21 defense
22. Donelson : 137 wins, #22 offense, #23 defense
23. Dayton : 111 wins, #23 offense, #22 defense
24. Wausau : 31 wins, #24 offense, #24 defense

It's a surprise several of these teams are in the bottom like this. Donelson and Wausau both won their divisions the last 2 seasons. Transylvania went 7-9 last year. Mt. Pilot went 6-10. Dayton and Death Valley are more understandable returning after posting 1-15 records. Wausau is awful, much of it because of a brutal schedule including games against the top 5 teams: Tillman, Nashville, Great Lakes, Hermitage and Steeltown.

TTFBA 2008 Ranking Predictions : 13th - 18th

13. Lawson : 322 wins, #8 offense, #19 defense
14. San Pedro : 317 wins, #12 offense, #18 defense
15. Dakota : 283 wins, #15 offense, #15 defense
16. Muncie : 263 wins, #19 offense, #12 defense
17. North Carolina : 243 wins, #21 offense, #11 defense
18. Philadelphia : 235 wins, #20 offense, #13 defense

San Pedro and Dakota may have a shot at a wild card slot. Lawson is uncoached and in a tough conference. Muncie is reloading, North Carolina is tanking, and Philadelphia is a QB away from a playoff spot. And the run game, led by Adrian Peterson, needs a line.

TTFBA 2008 Ranking Predictions : 7th - 12th

2nd tier of teams predicted for the 2008 season based on a 40 season simulation. Shows number of wins in 40 season and offense/defense ranking based on points scored.

7. Dallas : 417 wins, #9 offense, #6 defense
8. Montcalm : 416 wins, #7 offense, #9 defense
9. Knoxville : 387 wins, #14 offense, #2 defense
10. NW Missouri : 383 wins, #11 offense, #8 defense
11. Ohio : 357 wins, #13 offense, #7 defense
12. Real Charleston : 346 wins, #10 offense, #16 defense

The teams on this level aren't shabby. They're playoff caliber but not championship caliber. . Dallas and Montcalm are formiable but there is a dropoff after them. Knoxville has an anemic offense and NW Missouri isn't much better. But the Rednecks should move up into the first tier with the trade for Donovan McNabb. Ohio's offense is not glorious and Real Charleston's defense is the poster child for mediocrity.

TTFBA 2008 Ranking Predictions : 1st - 6th

Here are the top 6 teams based on the DTC 40 season simulation including the number of wins in the 40 seasons and the ranking in offense and defense based on scoring.

1. Tillman : 502 wins, #3 offense, #1 defense
2. Nashville : 475 wins, #4 offense, #3 defense
3. Great Lakes : 459 wins, #5 offense, #4 defense
4. Hermitage : 442 wins, #2 offense, #10 defense
5. Steeltown : 440 wins, #1 offense, #14 defense
6. Huntsville : 425 wins, #6 offense, #5 defense

So far the pool is showing strong support for Steeltown to win the championship but these numbers show a couple of things that go against that. First, the road to the championship in the Simpson conference goes through Tillman, Nashville or Great Lakes. Second, the Roughcut defense has some major weaknesses. The Rangers will shred the defensive line of Steeltown with their offensive line and corral of running backs. Romo & Co. would not have much time on the field to show their prowess.

Hermitage looks to be the Payton Conference representative in the Super Bowl. Very respectable team but also not great on defense. No team has won a Super Bowl in the TTFBA with a defensive ranking below #8. .

TTFBA 2008 Franco Harris Division

1. Knoxville Buffaloes (10-6)
2. Ohio Glory (9-7)
3. Dakota Blizzard (7-9)
4. Wausau Blue Bombers (1-15)

The Buffaloes and the Glory will battle for division supremacy. Their matchups in week 1 and week 14 will be good ones. Dakota is in not out of the race completely but will have problems against some non-divisional opponents.

Chris Dillion has done a fine job with the former Superior SkySnakes. The franchise is very well enabled to make it to it's very first playoff appearance.

Wausau is just terrible. They had only 31 wins in 40 seasons. It's so bad I'm very suspect of the lineup or depth chart I had when I ran the simulation. This will easily be the worst season in the history of the Bombers, one of the original TTFBA teams. But with 6 division titles and a Super Bowl in their history, look for Greg Smith to bring the Bombers back quickly.

TTFBA 2008 Barry Sanders Division

1. Hermitage Heroes (11-5)
2. San Pedro Corsairs (8-8)
3. Philadelphia Liberty (6-10)
4. Donelson Warriors (3-13)

Philly and San Pedro could give Hermitage a challenge for the division but ultimately the Heroes should come out on top. The spreads show a wild ride for Hermitage from a 25 pt favorite over Wausau in week 11 to a 10 pt underdog at Great Lakes in week 7.

Welcome back to the playoffs Corsairs. It's only been 7 years. San Pedro has a lot of tight spreads, a 10-6 record is very feasible.

Philadelphia is also showing several close games. They could go 10-6 as well. Coaching, coaching, coaching. Watch those games against San Pedro.

Donelson is out of it. Time to rebuild after 4 straight playoff appearances and two division titles. But going 3-13 following a 12-4 season. Only had 1 pick in the first 3 rounds of the draft. What happened here.

TTFBA 2008 Tony Dorsett Division

1. Huntsville Ravens (11-5)
2. NW Missouri Rednecks (10-6)
3. Mt. Pilot Gamblers (6-10)
4. Transylvania Evil Dead (6-10)

Just great. An open team at the top of the division. No wonder the Rednecks are trading for McNabb from North Carolina. They should be able to take the division away from a team drifting in the abyss. Of course, it is a team with Jay Cutler playing catch with Reggie Wayne, Brayton Edwards and Dwayne Bowe. The defense isn't shabby either.

I was kinda looking forward to a different division winner this year. Oh well. Yawn. Looks like I'll have to run a new simulation with McNabb as a Redneck. RedNeck McNabb. Hmm.

Mt. Pilot still in mediocrity. Risky draft with WR Calvin Johnson and QB Brady Quinn. Stay tuned a season or two to see the results of that.

The Evil Dead regress slightly after going 7-9 last year. But beefed up their defense with 3 picks in the first round.

TTFBA 2008 Earl Campbell Division

1. Tillman Rangers (12-4)
2. Montcalm Panthers (10-6)
3. North Carolina Triad Tremblers (6-10)
4. Dayton Dragons (3-13)

Tillman will crush North Carolina and Dayton by 3 touchdowns - twice. The Panthers will be the only competition for them in the division but they will go down by a touchdown. The divison will not be problem.

John Bowman took Montcalm up a level last season going 9-7 and a wild card playoff slot after going 4-12 for two straight seasons. Similiar results this year.

North Carolina beat DTC to the punch and apparently ran their own simulation soon after the draft. Seeing the writing on the wall, they have bailed on the season, putting McNabb up on the block. They will have their worst season in their remarkable history. It could be the first time they won't have double digit wins. Mark Liveringhouse could get this team to the playoffs if he wanted. He doesn't.

The Dragons took a huge step back last year going 1-15 after making it to the conference championship in 2006. There will be slight improvement but it will take more than first round pick ILB Patrick Willis to get this team back to the playoffs.

Prediction Process

The predictions are based on the results of 40 simulated seasons using the actual schedule. Kudos to Chad getting a schedule together so quickly this year. The depth charts and lineups are computer generated then the charts and lineups for each team are checked. In some cases, the depth chart and lineup for a team is modified. If there's a problem it's usually in the RB depth chart and, less often, the QB lineup. After the depth charts and lineups are checked, the coaching profile is computer generated.

An automation program runs Action. After each season, it has Action print out the final standings and schedule reports to files. Then it resets the schedule, resets the players 16 weeks and does it all over again. I have written a program that reads these reports and generates a master report based on the results. I use this same program to create the weekly point spreads using the schedule reports from the 40 seasons that show the scores from all the games.

TTFBA 2008 John Riggins Division

1. Steeltown Roughcut (11-5)
2. Real Charleston Galacticos (9-7)
3. Lawson Sikpups (8-8)
4. Death Valley Demons (5-11)

Real Charleston and Lawson have a chance to defeat Steeltown early in the season but not in their 2nd meetings. Death Valley will not be competitive this year.

The Roughcut will be one of the top scoring teams in the league but their defense is average and will be their downfall in the playoffs. Real Charleston and Lawson are both below average on defense with offenses just above average. Death Valley has one of the worst defenses in the league. Pennington and Maroney on offense will keep their offense from being the worst but not by much.

TTFBA 2008 Jim Taylor Division

1. Nashville Force (12-4)
2. Great Lakes Midshipmen (11-5)
3. Dallas Gladiators (10-6)
4. Muncie Packers (7-9)

Great Lakes and Nashville will fight it out for the Taylor division. Dallas has an outside chance to take it while Muncie looks like a distant last. It's very possible that both wild card teams for the conference will come from this division.

Nashville will be a 3 point favorite in their first meeting with Great Lakes, then a slim 1 point underdog in the last meeting in their last game of the year. Expect both teams to sweep Muncie. Great Lakes should sweep Dallas as well with Nashville a slim underdog (1 pt) in their first game against them.

The Force and Midshipmen have the talent to win it all but the road to the championship goes through fellow Payton Conference team Tillman Rangers.