Sunday, January 3, 2010

#2 Wausau Blue Bombers (+16) @ #1 Donelson Warriors

Please leave a comment or send me an email if you read this. You can give a review if you want but I'm really just wanting an idea how many actually read this besides the competing teams (assuming they do. They DO, don't they???). Make it a one worder: "Read." "Sucked." "Awesome", I don't care. Just read it, baby, read it. Thanks, I'd appreciate that. These playoff ones take about an hour to do. I get into it but I don't have to get into it THAT much. Thanks. (Signed: the DTC Geeks of Predictology).
 
So, here we have the 2009 TTFBA Champions playing the upstart Blue Bombers. A team that we could've crowned weeks ago against a team that just refused to go away the entire season. Unfortunately, that courageous run is coming to an end with this game.
 
Wausau (10-6) advanced to this game with an upset of New England, 30-18. Brett Favre and the coaching staff were all kissy-kissy because he happily allowed RB Steven Jackson to carry the ball 28 times, only the second time this season Jackson had that many touches. His average was not spectacular (3.5) and he didn't score but he was enough of a distraction (99 yds, 4 first downs) that he factored into New England's defensive game plan with constant keying. Favre's trust in the defensive coordinator paid off because he had his most efficient outing for the season going 14 for 18, 198 yds, 0 interceptions and 2 TD passes, both of them to Larry Fitzgerald on short slants of 26 and 41 yds while New England keyed on Jackson.
 
Donelson (16-0) made it here with a pick fest over Denver's Chad Pennington (8 of 19, 83 yds, 3 ints, 1 td, 30.6 qb rating). All 3 interceptions led to Warrior touchdowns, making up 21 of the 37 points in the 37-7 drubbing. The Dynamite did not go down with some fireworks though. Down 13-zip with 3:23 left in the 1st quarter, they marched down to their only score basically on RB Adrian Peterson's back (22 carries, 52 yds,  2.4 avg, no touchdowns) on a 19 play drive featuring 3, count 'em 3 successful 4th down attempts. 13 of Peterson's carries for the game came on this drive. Pennington connected with TE Tony Gonzalez for the TD closing the game to 13-7 midway through the 2nd quarter. But by the end of the half, Donelson had pulled away 27-7 thanks to a pair of painfully pathetic Pennington passes. (Thank you, thank you - I hear the groans.)
 
Donelson Offense vs Wausau Defense
 
I've put off as long as I can. Like I said in the Denver-Donelson pre-game write-up, the Warriors are the best offensive team in the league. You don't stop them. They average 36.3 points per game. Look at those scores during the season, no one has kept them below...wait, wait a second. Trivia question: What team was the only one to keep Donelson under 21 points this season.
 
Answer: The Wausau Blue Bombers. What on earth? The 20-13 Wausau loss in week 10 was the closest game Donelson had the entire season. How do 23 point underdogs only lose by 7? Are these guys buds or something? Did Donelson take it easy on the Blue Bombers, loading up the ack-ack with squaw feathers instead of sending the Warriors of the tribe to take care of business? It doesn't look like it.
 
Donelson, perhaps noting Wausau's studly run defense (2nd in the league, allowing only 75.6 yds per game) choose to make it an air game, relying on QB Philip Rivers to have the honors. Less than 2 minutes in - Donelson is up 7 zip. But the defense hangs in there. The only TD scored by the offense was that first drive. The other TD was from a 98 yard kick return in the 4th quarter.
 
A lot of the credit must go to the Blue Bomber offense, who helped the defense by keeping the ball as long as possible (39 minutes).  Still, the Warrior offense averages 3.8 touchdowns per game, holding them to just one is quite a feat.
 
The pass defense just isn't there. If Donelson gets enough drives, the bows and arrows of the Warriors are going to bring down Bombers.
 
 
Wausau Offense vs Donelson Defense
 
Ugh. Once again, a stat comparison jumped out at me checking out when Wausau has the ball. This is one of the very worst red zone scoring teams going up against one of the very best red zone defenses. Larry Fitzgerald will take it home from anywhere on the field. You better not be mesmerized by 3.5 yarder Stephen Jackson and let Fitzgerald rip you up. But one has no idea when that's going to happen.
 
But the Donelson defense suppresses run and passes equally awesomely (awkwardly presentedly I know). They only allowed 12.4 points per game. Wausau, nor any other team are going anywhere against this defense. It's surprising 4 teams scored more than 21 points on them.
 
I just don't see how Jackson gets another 100 yds against the Warrior defense. In the week 10 game, run stuffer DL Richard Seymour (8 rating) was out along with starting CB Rashean Mathis (8 rating). The simulations show a score of 30-14. I don't know how Wausau scores two field goals, must less two touchdowns.
 
 
 

2 comments:

Wausau Blue Bombers said...

I read the writeups all season long and enjoy them very much. I do take some of the comments, toungue and cheek. Overall, I do enjoy the blog and it adds to the league.

Unknown said...

Second!