Season vs Simulation Results

Payton Conference Championship Preview

+10 Hermitage Heroes at NW Missouri Rednecks

Predicted Score: 28-17

 

In one of the best games of the season, the Heroes brought some smack to the Rednecks in week 9, going up 20-7 before eventually succumbing in with only 2:32 left in overtime 32-26. NW Missouri never led in the game until the final score. Is it possible they can bring it again, this time in the 'W' column? Uh...no.

 

NW Missouri Offense vs Hermitage Defense

 

The Rednecks have the highest scoring offense in the league, averaging 33 pts per game led by Carson Palmer's 41 TD passes. The Rednecks average almost 300 yds passing per game. Torry Holt snagged 14 TDs followed by Tony Gonzalez and Steve Smith with 8 each.

Michael Westbrook is the primary ground attack which is 6th in the league at 119.6 yds per game running behind the best offensive line for running in the league with 52 run rating.

 

The Hermitage defense allowed 19 pts per game placing them 9th in points allowed. This is not a good matchup against THE top rated offense. They allow a lot of yards on both the air and ground (14th and 19th respectively) but finished in the top 10 in scoring for both (22 passing TDs and 7 rushing TDs). They are among the worst in the league (22nd) in average yards allowed per run at 4.5. The Heroe's have a good balanced talent spread throughout the positions with no glaring weaknesses. Half of the time they deploy in a 4-2 Nickel defense which may account for their poor run defense numbers.

 

Advantage: NW Missouri

 

Hermitage Offense vs NW Missouri Defense

 

The Heroes have done very well on offense considering the unimpressive talent in the air game. Jon Kitna posted a 90.5 rating, throwing 29 TDs, vastly exceed his real life numbers of 80.9 and 18 TDs. Kitna's receivers are a serviceable, if not remarkable, bunch including WR Andre Johnson (61 catches, 6 TDs), WR Dennis Northcutt (45 catches, 8 TDs) and TE Jeremy Shockey (59 catches, 3 TDs). Of course, the passing game is always helped by an excellent running game and Hermitage is no exception with LaDainian Tomlinson's 1758 yds and 10 TDs keeping defenses honest. The Heroes, like the Rednecks, have an excellent offensive line (49 run, 41 pass) that helped boost L.D.s running and reduce Kitna's sacks.

 

Hermitage faces a run stuffing Redneck defense that ranking 4th in scoring (16.8 pts per game) and 1st against the run, allowing only 68.5 yds per game. However, Hermitage was one of the rare teams to have success on the ground against them during the regular season with Tomlinson rushing for 126 yds, 1 td, and a 4.2 average in spite of being keyed constantly by the Rednecks. NW Missouri's pass defense is a few notches below their run defense but still stout, ranking 6th in the league. Kitna did okay against it in week 9, throwing for 23 of 38, 255 yds, 1 tds and no interceptions.

 

Advantage: Hermitage. On paper this is NW Missouri but the week 9 evidence shows me the Heroes have a knack for making the most of things when they have the ball.

Simpson Conference Championship Preview Part 2

Nashville Offense vs Tillman Defense

 

The offensive Force is to be reckoned with, #2 scoring in the league at 32.1 pts per game. Brett Favre is the QB, acquired in a trade sending Kurt Warner to Real Charleston. He has a nice group of players to throw to including receivers Bobby "Thanks Dad" Engram, Anquan "Shouting Match" Boldin, Ike "I Like" Hilliard and TE Antonio "Open the Flood" Gates. This talented crew only ranked 11th in passing yards (216 per game) but, like Tillman, had one of the highest yards per attempt averages in the league.

 

Bruiser RB Fred Taylor heads up the ground game, rushing for over 1,000 yds at 5.9 avg per carry for 6 TDs. Taylor is backed up by Kenny Watson who ran for 5 TDs and is an effective target out of the backfield catching 43 passes and 1 TD. Nashville's offensive line is above average but isn't among the best in the league. They rank 8th in run block rating (45)  and 6th in pass blocking (35). Favre was put on his back 24 times compared to 15 in real stats.

 

Tillman's defense is best of league against the pass, allowing only 157 yds per game and 17 TDs. They prefer interceptions (22, ranked 4th) to sacks (33, ranked 9th) as their big plays. Although they ranked 7th against the run (96.8 yds per game, 4 tds), they allow more yards per carry (4.8) than any other team in the league. This could be the result of getting a big lead and going to pass defense which could open up an opponent's running game. (Obviously, an effective approach since Tillman did not lose a game this season.)

 

Whatever possible flaws in their defense, the scoreboard numbers don't lie. The Rangers are 2nd in the league preventing opponents from scoring. They allow opponents to score, on average, less than 2 touchdowns a game. However, Nashville was one of the two teams able to score more than 20 points against them this season, rolling up 30 in a 48-30 loss in week 9.

 

Tillman's total defense ratings are high, ranking 4th (81 rating points) in their base 4-3 defense they deploy half of the time and 5th (80 points) in their nickel package used about a third of the time. But they are average in points involving pass defense in the 4-3 : pass defense rating, rush rating, interceptions and sacks. But their nickel pass rating is one of the best compared to other teams' nickel defenses although the other numbers change very little. The run defense points are excellent (3rd) in both platoons. This makes the 4.8a even more curious.

 

Advantage: Tillman. This was tough to analyze but, taking into account the big picture, I think the Rangers will get ahead in the game and force Nashville to pass. This plays into the strength of the Tillman defense where Safety Bob Sanders & Co. will go Nickel and shut down Favre.

 

If you've read this far, you deserve to know the point spread:

+3 Nashville Force at Tillman Rangers

Predicted Score: Tillman 24, Nashville 21

 

A 20 season simulation had Nashville as 4 point underdogs.  A 40 season simulation put them as even. This should be a closer game than 48-30.