#4 Denver Dynamite (+14) @ #1 Donelson Warriors

This year's Super Bowl champ Donelson defeated division disputant Denver twice en route to an undefeated season by an average of 35 to 18. This playoff game will make a trifecta.   Denver Offense vs Donelson Defense The Warrior defense ranked #1 in preventing opponents from scoring, onlying an average of only 12.4 points pre game. Denver has a prolific offense, ranked 4th, scoring 23.7 points per game on average. QB Chad Pennington , WR Randy Moss and RB Adrian Peterson form their own trifecta of domination. TE Tony Gonzalez (103 receptions, 7 tds) provides some matchup problems for most defenses.   The Dynamite are ranked near the bottom in number of pass attempts (20th, only 448 attempts) but they make the most of them ranking high in pass rating (4th with 95.5), completion percentage (7th at 65.4%) and passing TD percentage (4.2%, ranked 7th). The #2 rusher in the league (1425 yds, 4.3 avg, Peterson carries the load 9 tds) carries the load, opening up the passing game.   But the Donelson defense is the most talented in the league. The starting lineup only contains only player rated less than 7, Greg Ellis, rated a lowly 6. The 2009 TTFBA Champion Warriors have done well mining the free agent list and the rosters of relations during the offseason and built one of the most formidable defenses in league history. DE Dwight Freeney (9 sacks, 21 hurries), OLB Joey Porter (9 sacks, 3 hurries) and CB Charles Woodson (8 deflections, 4 interceptions) make up the 9 rated starters.   Denver's assigned homework is to study games where opponents were able to put some points up. Transylvania in week 9, for instance. The Warriors were actually losing going into the 4th quarter only to score 23 unanswered points to win 40-29.     Donelson Offense vs Denver Defense Sadly, even if a team can score on Donelson, Donelson will score at will against them, average 36 points a game - tops in the league. The Team Charts report in Action has 30 categories on offense, the Warriors rank #1 in 16 of them. They are in the top 5 in 22 of them. RB Derrick Ward's 6.1 average (1144 yds, 8 tds) abuses teams on the ground, and QB Phillip Rivers tosses to WRs Antonio Bryant and Laveranues Coles. The Warriors have 3 of top 4 players in average yards per reception. Yeah. The Dynamite may be able to blow up some teams on the run (ranked 5th, allowing 78.6 yds per game) but are average against the pass. They allowed 20 touchdowns through the air during the season, ranked 15th.   Denver gave up 283 yds a game against Rivers, although he only tossed 2 touchdowns. The week 1 loss (29-10) is interesting because, the offense only scored a single touchdown and it was on the ground. One touchdown was a fumble recovery and the rest of the points were 5 Jason Hanson field goals. But the week 14 loss (41-27), they allowed Ward 105 yards and 3 touchdowns.   OLB James Harrison (7 sks, 10 hurries and 1 int for a TD) and DE Aaron Kampman (10 sks, 13 hurries) are the key defensive players but there just aren't enough of their caliber to avoid being overwhelmed by the Warrior offense. If the Denver offense can move the ball against Donelson and the defense can hang in there like they did in week 1, maybe, just maybe we could see an upset.   But don't count on it. A 14 point spread in Action is almost impossible to overcome because team talent trumps superior coaching. These are two excellent coaches so that makes it a wash anyway. Donelson 31, Denver 17.